Silver Mine Supply To Peak 2-3 Years & Drawdown Of LBMA Inventory – GFMS

According to GFMS, the world is expected to see a peak in silver mine supply in the next 2-3 years.  This statement including this year’s supply and demand statistics were released in the GFMS 2014 Silver Market Interim Report for the Silver Institute.

GFMS states the reason for the peak in silver mine supply is due to “current price levels maintaining production but constraining investment in new capacity.”  Basically, they are saying the current low silver price will maintain production for the meanwhile, but this has created a decline in mining investment, precipitating a peak in global silver production. In addition, they see silver scrap supply falling from 25% of total supply in 2012 to only 16% in 2014.

One striking statistic from the Silver Interim Report is the total drop-off of government silver sales.  From 2004 to 2013, net government silver sales totaled 366 million ounces.  Government silver sales hit a high in 2006 at 78.5 million oz and a low of 7.4 million oz in 2012.

World Silver Supply 2014 GFMS

However, GFMS shows in this graph (from the Silver Interim Report), that net government sales fell from 7% of total supply in 2004 to ZIP in 2014.  During the past decade, most government silver sales came from China, Russia and India.  Even though government sales were only 7.9 million oz in 2013, it looks as if this official supply has now totally dried up.

And who could blame them.  Why should China, Russia or India sell their government silver bullion into the market for peanuts while the Fed funnels its monetary stimulus through its member banks into the stock and bond markets while capping the value of commodities and the precious metals?

From their press release, GFMS states the following on world mine supply:

On the supply side, mine production is forecast to reach all-time highs in the silver industry in 2014 as supply from Guatemala, Mexico, Chile and Peru increases. This is forecast to see primary supply increase by 3.5% in 2014 to 868 Moz.

GFMS believes total global silver production will increase 3.5% over 2013 to 868 million oz in 2014.  Last year, GFMS reported world silver production at 819.6 Moz.  I gather 2013 will be revised upwards to 838 Moz.  It’s perfectly understandable to revise figures, but how could GFMS miss a whopping 20 Moz??

That being said, the most IMPORTANT FACTOR to understand from their Interim Report is the announcement of the planned peak of world silver mine supply in the next 2-3 years.  This actually makes sense if we consider not just the supply constraints coming from reduced mining investment capacity, but also the impact of peak global oil production… which also seems likely to occur in the next few years.

On the demand side of the equation, GFMS forecasts physical silver demand to fall 6.7% in 2014 compared to 2013.  They show small percentage declines in jewellery, photography, silverware and industrial application silver consumption, but a larger drop-off in physical silver bar and coin demand.

Even though GFMS estimates silver bar and coin demand to fall 20% in 2014 compared to last year, they had this to say in their press release:

Meanwhile demand for silver bars and coins has soared in recent weeks as bargain hunting retail investors returned to the silver market after a disappointing first half of the year. Nowhere is this more evident than in India where imports of silver are up by 14% year-on-year for the January to October period and set for an annual record. With imports in the first ten months totaling a massive 169 Moz many vaults in the UK, traditionally the largest supplier to India, have seen significant drawdowns, leading to more supply flowing from China and Russia.

According to the data above, if India continues to import a record amount of silver for the rest of the year, total imports may reach 200 million oz — nearly 25% of total world mine supply.  Also, Indian silver demand is so strong, the UK is experiencing a draw-down of silver inventories at the LBMA.

If Russia and China had to step in and supply silver to India as the LBMA inventories are running low, what does this mean if we see an explosion in physical silver investment demand in the future??  A draw-down of LBMA silver inventories may be the beginning sign of looming future physical delivery problems.

I believe total physical coin and bar demand will be higher than the 192 Moz figure forecasted by GFMS for 2014.  This is down 50 Moz from the high of 242 Moz in 2013.  Furthermore, I would imagine the majority of this estimated decline was in physical bar investment as official silver coin sales remain strong.

Lastly, there is a lot of hype about the Solar Power Industry becoming a huge consumer of silver in the future.  I have always stated that industrial silver demand, especially solar power demand, will not be much of determining factor in setting price in the future.  Wall Street analysts continue to regurgitate that industrial silver demand will grow for the next 5-10 years.  Hogwash.

When the peak of global oil production takes place within the next several years, this will impact Global GDP growth.  Matter-a-fact, world economic activity will contract along with the decline in global oil production.  Which means, demand for silver in industrial applications will decline as well.

AND IT ALREADY HAS…LOL.  If we look at this last chart also from the Interim Report, we can clearly see that silver demand in the Photovoltiac Market peaked in 2011 at approximately 65 Moz, and is forecasted to nearly fall in half in 2014 at 35 Moz.

Photovoltiac Silver Demand 2014F GFMS

Sure, maybe the solar power manufacturers are using less silver in their panels… so what.  It’s the overall consumption that matters.  If total silver consumption in the solar power industry is declining, then why do we still hear analysts say this will be a BIG MARKET for silver in the future???

Again, I have always stated that the future spike rise in the price of silver will not be due to industrial demand, but rather to the massive increase in physical bullion investment when the Global Paper Ponzi Scheme implodes.  This is not a matter of IF, but WHEN.

Industrial silver demand (minus photography) peaked in 2011 at 573 Moz and will decline to an estimated 530 Moz in 2014.  However, physical bar and coin demand is four times higher than what it was before the U.S. Investment Banking and Housing Market collapse in 2007 (51 Moz in 2007 & 242 Moz in 2013).

All-in-all, GFMS estimates that silver market will experience a 6 Moz oz surplus this year compared to the revised 85 Moz deficit in 2013.  I believe we may actually see a small annual silver deficit in 2014 when GFMS tallies year-end figures and publishes its 2015 World Silver Survey… come April next year.

Remember, the two most important FACTORS from the GFMS Interim Report:

1) World Mine Supply to Peak in 2-3 years.

2) Draw-down of LBMA silver inventories.

Just watch and see how these two indicators will impact the price of silver in the future.  Unfortunately, the world is not prepared for what’s coming… and very few are invested in Gold & Silver that enjoy a  2,000+ year proven track record as real money, high quality investments, and stores of wealth.

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40 Comments on "Silver Mine Supply To Peak 2-3 Years & Drawdown Of LBMA Inventory – GFMS"

  1. Hi Steve,

    Every now and then I come over here to check your latest posts about the metals since Turd changed to a paid service. I have to say, I admire your work as your posts are more into the deep. Thanks for all these posts that make it clear where we are heading to.

    I would like to make notice of a very, VERY, extraordinary happening here in the Netherlands. The DNB (De Nederlandse Bank) has been very quiet about its gold holdings around the world. It has let us known before by a news report that some of the dutch gold holdings are in the basement of DNB in Amsterdam. DNB said back then It found the holdings in the US safe and didn’t want to ship/move the gold back to the Netherlands. This was a report of last year I remember and ever since it has been quiet.
    This morning, 21-11-2014, suddenly all newspapers, tv and radio journals are mentioning the secret move of ‘our’ gold back to the Netherlands. You can find articles here:

    They came to this move because they wanted to increase the feeling of consumer confidence…
    Well, imho…that is utter BS, because most of the dutch couldn’t care less about our gold abroad. And if people are asked about their feellings of keeping our gold stored abroad, they almost all say that it’s fine if it’s kept abroad.
    To me…something else is going on. I wonder if articles show up in other countries mentioning movements of their gold back to within their borders.

    Keep up the good work!

    • Gaengphed,

      Thanks for coming over and checking out articles on the site. Yeah, there’s a lot of strange things taking place in the markets currently… actually more strange than ever. I speak to some connected people in the industry, and I can tell you that SOMETHING JUST AIN’T RIGHT.

      The U.S. financial-banking system broke in 2008 and the only thing that has been done is to prop the system up with more PAPER. However, it looks as if 2011 was a turning point for the rest of the world as the Chinese became net sellers of U.S. Treasuries and probably huge buyers of gold for their official reserves.

      Just about all of the Western and European 10 year bonds rates are substantially lower since 2011 (according to work of Chris Hamilton), while the BRICS countries have stayed the same or are higher. Furthermore the BRICS countries have higher normal rates of interest while the West, Japan and European countries are artificially low.

      This sort of manipulation can only go so long before the Chinese, Russians and BRICS pull the plug on the Dollar.

      Anyhow, this Swiss Referendum Gold Vote if YES, could motivate a lot more countries to bring back their gold as well. Even though the Central Banks in public talk about gold in a negative way, I believe there is a REAL FEAR that the FIAT CURRENCY SYSTEM will disintegrate.. and much sooner than later.


      • I do not think that confidence in fiat can be lost in the west before the system completely explodes and that is particularly the case in europe where there is no mines anymore and VAT on silver.

        Regarding the swiss referendum, it will be no, no question about it.

        • RD is right; no way Swiss bankers [prompted or threatened by Western-alliance central banks], allow this pro-gold referendum to pass.Too much threat to the fiat system.

          RD is also right [IMO], the West won’t lose confidence in fiat [like Asia has] much in advance of the SHTF events/moment

          We’ll see Russia partially back the Ruble with gold before any other country. I’m not counting ISIS, whose determination to create their own currency from gold, silver, and copper will make them very powerful indeed. Look for the U.S. to bomb their mint if they create their own minting facilities.

          • In fact I do not believe that any retail investors/citizens can trigger a collapse in fiat currencies. If worldwide investors want to buy 10 billion ounces of silver tomorrow, there will be a shortgage and…so what ? There just will not be any for sale for retails (but surely lots for industries for example) and the paper prices could collpase even more !

            If something breaks, apart from its own weight and contradiction, it will be because of sovereign entities (BRICS) which :

            1) have a printing press even if less performing one than the western ones (chinese one is the best from the brics).
            2) especially they do not “play” with their money and can suffer billion and bullion $ losses for years.

            If it’s up to them, or it can last for much longer IMO…


        The odds that the yen would vote is much less than 1% imo.

        People with more than 1000 CHF in the bank will be scared to hell to vote yes and I do not even speak to people who have a 25 yeard mortgage for their apartment, they want the bubble to continue to rise, to rise, to rise…

    • CountOfMeltedCrisco | November 26, 2014 at 11:42 am |

      Here’s what’s REALLY strange about the Dutch gold : how did THEY manage to get this much gold back from the U.S. when the Germans were only able to get a paltry amount, so far, and the rest by …2020!

      What Damocles’ Sword did the Dutch hang over the U.S.’s head that the Germans couldn’t to get that much of their gold back in so short a time?

      “Somebody” knows something the U.S. doesn’t want known.

  2. “Why should China, Russia or India sell their government silver bullion into the market for peanuts while the Fed funnels its monetary stimulus through its member banks into the stock and bond markets while capping the value of commodities and the precious metals?”

    This is why they need to blow all the shorts, and the Federal Reserve naked selling in PM’s, out of the water with physical delivery demands that cannot be met. I liked Harvey Organ’s thesis of the Open Interest being Chinese proxies in the silver market…..getting ready to ask for delivery ALL AT THE SAME TIME. Of course, that is wild-eyed thinking, but i think a day like that comes when China or Russia feels like they have all the gold they need.

    Anyway, when the Fed started to QE they should have sent out a MEMO to every middle class person alive that they NEEDED to be 100% their policy tool 500. And, I am serious. Because generally speaking when trillions of new paper get printed–generally gold and silver go up.

    But no, gold had its biggest one year decline in 30 years last year! So Central Banks print more than ever in history, collectively, and gold falls harder than ever in history in a single year?

    You have got to be kidding me. Someone, anyone, put an end to these games PUH-LEASE.

  3. amazing absolutely unfettered corruption everywhere.
    so, if u was an insider, with access to info before even the big pension plans, say, then how could u make money off that?
    DINGDINGDING—invent 20 minute options!

    20-min options on Russell2000, $spx, nas100
    there cannot be any sane rational explanation for this garbage. they may just as well install a roulette wheel in the exchanges; that would be only slightly quicker..

    go to 5:30 min mark for 90 seconds.
    Gold & Silver dead for 30 years?

    • I watched the video. He forget to mention the unfunded liabilities, that are also growing 5 trillion plus a year… real debt to GDP is really 560%–more than Japan’s. But hey, we are the almighty great America,right?

      Plus, he forgot to mention that Russia is serious–they will be off any dollar standard completely in 2-3 years. This is a HUGE dollar negative…..because if it were just Russia so what. But the truth is it is also…….CHINA in trade with Russia now, and Brazil, and India……and South America……and Canada……etc.

      The Powers that be made a big mistake. They should have never manipulated gold and silver DOWN SO MUCH. THey’ve done it and have made millions of Americans completely aware what a farce every single market has become. If Gold and Silver went up too–like stocks—we could all just say look….they needed to print trillions, but the party is over.

      BUT NO! They instead will NEVER let the party in stocks stop—EVER. And they WILL NEVER stop rigging PM’s—-every single day, every single minute. No, I am not kidding. You can see them cap prices on any spike……THEY WILL LITERALLY CAP IT STRAIGHT OUT, AND WILL THEN GET THE PRICES TO HOLD AT THE SAME LEVEL FOR SOMETIMES MINUTES!

      And that is why we know the system is doomed. It’s just a matter of when, not if.

      • Do not be so sure that they will levitate stocks on a “permanent high plateau”, if they begin to feel to be too much on a corner, to make another lehman accident will blow off some BRICS countries and maybe complete their total prower grab in the west.

  4. tradingforaliving | November 21, 2014 at 4:49 pm |

    There will come a day when people will not sell at suggested market prices and this is an example price of cup of coffee $5 and someone offers you the same for a silver coin most people will not sell so the downside is limited it could be $10 or less but then they will have two markets, probably governments will issue regulations to control prices but the markets will have an answer to this its called black market.

    One more point I want to make what if all central banks are working for the same higher authority there is no Chinese central bank or Russian central bank or fed or any other in dispute they all agree on everything related to how the world should move forward. Maybe we are already in this one world, one gov, and one bank system.

    What if all the disputes between countries are just lies

    If everything fails and price of silver or gold can’t be controlled there is a solution just confiscate there are many ways to depress prices for a long long time, it could be putting higher taxes on sales just like what the Indian gov did, they can do whatever it takes.

    So far gold and silver is been wealth destoryer for many who believe the metal can protect them one day.

    Best thing to do is just limit your investment to 5-10% and I could be wrong .

  5. “What if all the disputes between countries are just lies

    I would not be surprised is there is no real west-east tension. They very well could be on the exact same board.

    Indeed, gold and silver are wealth destroyers. I am so sick and tired of hearing how stock gains are just nominal. Bullshit. They are real. Stock gains have crushed inflation and the dollar is UP. So the losses in gold and silver are REAL while the stock gains are not nominal…they are real inflation adjusted returns.

    Kyle Bass can kiss my ass.

    • We have been seeing a lot of comments like this lately. 2014 4Q will be remmebered as the bottom of the pullback in metals. The fact that you doubt this statement is evidence that it is correct. 🙂

      • @Mike,

        Frankly, anyone calling the bottom is in my opinion a shill to begin with. I don’t doubt that someday anyone who bought gold and silver over the last four–that is 4 years or 1460 days out of the 28,000 days we have to live–we SOMEDAY have a Return on their Investment. Maybe in another 1500 days from now there will be a CAGR (compounded average growth rate for those keeping score) of something that is POSITIVE. But who knows for sure. It might take another 3000 days in the future for a ROI. Or another 10% of our lifetime for a postive return.

        My point is that the stock gains are real—in inflation adjusted terms they ARE MORE THAN REAL.

        So everytime I hear nonimal this or that I want to puke. That is so misleading it is not every funny.

        Fact of the matter is, to date, for almost every American that has gotten involved in PM’s is down. Not saying this will remain so. I hope not. But facts are facts.


      • Oh….and Mike, you should have stuck to your financial adviser back in the early decade.

  6. Kyle will NOT be kissing anything of yours EVER.He knows as much or more than,anyone of the analysts around,and is therefore respected widely.
    As to the Ru/Chin cahoots with the west,good joke.
    When the Chinese decide to reprice gold,and possibly silver,the dollar balloon will be left floating on a tree in the wind.Then we will see if the US military has the balls to play their war games.I think not.R/C has smelt the rat of QE long ago,and their preparations/build-up are well forward.For-warned is for-armed as they say.
    Saddamerika ,and Britain/the west are going to learn austerity the hard way.The rest of the real world already knows all about it,thanks to the F.Fed.
    And if you hold gold you have lost nothing.a free insurance policy thrown in with your real ounces.Fly my pretties,as Blythe might have said.

  7. how big is LBMA inventory of silver?

  8. Michael Malerba | November 22, 2014 at 6:46 am |

    Hi Steve…I am assuming that the 2 to 3 year peak production comment by Ned is only credible if we stay at $16 oz? or at we at peak silver regardless of price?

    • Michael,

      That is a good question. I would imagine the low price at $20 for the past year and a half along with the current $16 price is the overall factor, but I am just assuming. I don’t think the miners will continue to expand future production projects at $20 either. I believe the price that would motivate the miners to get back up to speed would be $25 or higher.

      However, the answer to your question also ties into PEAK OIL. I have to say, the world is full of NITWITS and MORONS. The Shale Gas & Oil Industry is a complete disaster waiting to happen. The Shale Energy companies report more than 6 times the RESERVES to their Brokers and shareholders than they do to the SEC. This is the insanity of the markets today. Just about everything is HYPE, MANIPULATION or GARBAGE.

      So, I believe PEAK OIL will be here sooner than later… and that looks like 2-3 years. The peak of silver production will occur first in the Base Metal Mining Industry, as the primary silver mining industry prospers due to higher silver prices in the future when the PAPER HOUSE OF CARDS comes crashing down.

      We must remember the peak and decline of global oil production will impact Global GDP in a negative fashion. Thus, a falling GDP means less demand for base metals. However, I still believe silver demand will be high, along with the price.. allowing the primary silver miners to prosper for quite some time as the energy it takes to extract and produce silver is a fraction of base metal mining of by-product silver.


      • Michael Malerba | November 22, 2014 at 9:04 am |

        Thanks for the response. I feel frustrated at the lack of transparency into the physical silver market. In his interim report Ned mentions a possible LBMA shortage but gives absolutely no details. Facts are so hard to come by for silver investors that all we are left with are educated guesses. This fact alone is why there are so many conspiracy theories about the silver market.

        • Michael,

          I’ve had an email exchange with Ned before. I just sent him an email on that very question. It will be interesting to see if he responds with some figures.


  9. Hey Steve thanks as always. Was a bit shocked to see your forecast on PV demand being so low. Would love to see you and Steve Leeb debate this. He is forecasting demand as high as 50% of production in the medium term.

    “What this means is that on a yearly basis the world is going to have to triple its silver consumption for photovoltaics. This also means is that if the world stays on this course that the I.E.A. has mapped out, by 2017 photovoltaic demand could represent an astonishing 50 percent of all silver demand. And by the end of this decade photovoltaic demand would be close to 100 percent.”

    • Kansascrude,

      Actually that chart was from GFMS who does the World Silver Surveys, not me. Photovoltaic silver demand has been falling since its peak in 2011. I’ve been discussing this for the past several years. Solar & Wind Power are not the answer. Sure, maybe on a local basis if you don’t care about a return on investment, but rather the guarantee of power if the grid goes down.

      Renewable Investment peaked in 2011 at about $320 billion and then declined to $250 billion in 2013.


      • Solar demand will return. Governments got ahead of themselves with massive subsidies for solar. Now that the future of those subsidies does not look as bright neither does solar. But solar is the one renewable energy solution that is practical, in my opinion. It is the only power solution that is available to the individual.

  10. lastmanstanding | November 23, 2014 at 7:42 am |

    Peak silver in 2-3 years…USGS if I recall (or one of those organizations) predicts silver extinction by 2020.

    So by 2016-17 peak silver to possibly no silver in 2020…that should be interesting.

    Let’s face it…without silver, tech is over…without oil, tech is over, without oil, silver is over…re-occurring theme recognizable yet?

    I would like to believe that one of us regular guys/gals has already developed an energy source for the future. I truly believe someone has and the bastards have stolen and concealed it from us. In time, there will be no way for them to continue the ruse, the earth will set it free or kill us all.

    That is how the earth works…I think we are all positioned to see this happen.

    I have been researching the CARVE Project…kill us all looks more likely if this is the real deal.

    “don’t go down without one helluva fight”

    • Have to keep telling people, I have a B.S. in Geology and silver will NOT “go extinct” by 2020, or 2050 for that matter, regardless of what some bureaucrat spokesman may be saying. That is total bullshit, and people need to realize that.

      Average above-ground ore grades will be lower, yes. A lot more energy will be expended finding, mining, and refining, yes.

      How much is under the oceans is FAR more than has ever been mined. Some of that is mine-able if the price is right.

      • David,

        I agree with you that Silver will not go Extinct. However, we will see a peak in global silver production. The production of metals will parallel the peak and decline of global oil production.

        Again, Peak Silver Production will occur first in the Base Metal Mining Industry… which is 70% of global mine supply.


        • Those that have, will get, and can hold silver…even many that think it is a good investment…have no real idea how good an investment it will be.

          Those “crazy” estimates for the future value of silver priced in dollars? If they come with a time framework [like by June 2015] please ignore. But give it five years…they aren’t crazy, because it will be much more rare, and the dollar will buy much less. But if dollars are still the legal tender a few ounces will buy something quite useful.

          My own story I’ve posted before…I had a newspaper route in 1964-1967. My dd told me to save old dimes and quarters. In 1979 or 1980 I traded $25 face value quarters for enough dollars to rebuild a car engine…paying someone else to do it.

  11. Well maybe the trend has been down on solar but according to Leeb unless the financial Armageddon is fully at hand the Chinese will blow the doors of of Solar installations over the next 7 years! Why because they have now demonstrated the financial economics versus coal especially against imported coal. The environmental benefits seal the deal. Leeb is a longtime Peak Oiler and even Gail Tverberg of the Oil Drum and now Finite Living is taking nice about Solar. As the Chinese have now made the 72 Gigawatt decision the die is cast for an increase in demand for Solar. Since that is a doubling of current world wide capacity I can’t see the chart staying on the down slope. Most of the time I am in high 90 percent on agreement with you on all topics. This one IMO you are wrong on.

    My cousin in Hawaii is now running his home on Solar with out of pocket expenses in only a couple of months a year. Payback is 5 years due to the generous state and fed tax subsidies. Seeing tremendous savings here in Kansas with geothermal and solar combo’s (limited PV needed While I have no delusions it will be BAU in regards to transportation I think in spite of my own skepticisms that Solar would be significant I have had to alter my perspectives on it.

    • Kansascrude,

      I don’t know what is in store for China. They have over 70 million luxury homes-units unsold not including all the commercial real estate. I will tell you this, the economics of solar as a MED-LARGE SCALE Power Plant is not viable. I have seen Cash Flow studies showing just about all of the Large Solar projects in the United States don’t pay for themselves over the 20-25 year lifespan.

      This is based on competing with wholesale market rates of power. The only way they make sense if there are huge subsidies as well contracts forcing utilities to pay 3-4 times the going rate for Solar Electricity.

      Sorry, the economics of Renewables suck. However, that is different than having PAID IN FULL solar on a local basis, just like your friend.


      • “I have seen Cash Flow studies showing just about all of the Large Solar projects in the United States don’t pay for themselves over the 20-25 year lifespan.”


        Once produced and installed I’m assuming relatively low electricity generation & maintenance costs [compared to coal or diesel generating plants] for solar panels with few moving parts. If during that 20 to 25 year life span of the panels oil goes to $250+ per barrel, maybe they would be cost effective.

  12. Nitwits and morons abound,present company excepted,of course.Amerika sneezes ,UK catches a cold,as the saying goes.It seems the Pythons have taken over the brit gov.Just as shale is revealed as useless,they want to drill thousands of holes,and go down the same tired route.Oh well.
    Solar,I also disagree with you Steve,although you could care less I’m sure. The problem lies in the scale thinking.It is no longer massive build in the future.Local scale WILL be the answer to many of the wrecks capitalism has produced.It’s just that the elites can’t stand the idea.Why,they lose control of their slaves.And that means that silver will also prosper in the new dawn.BTW,comparing solar to nuclear.Look at Japan,I bet THAT wasn’t factored into the costings.

  13. i bumped into an investors meeting of the then much anticipated and hyped pan-asia metals exchange. what surprised me is that the crowd is made up of mostly middle aged men and women, who are definitely not the trader/PM type.

    so i found out the exchange is not doing much trading. it is running a financing ponzi scheme. these middle-aged men and women are putting in money to get double-digit fixed interest. the loans are backed by rare earth inventory put up by the borrowers.

    as we all know, inventory numbers can’t be trusted in china or anywhere.

    this again shows how china is addicted to the game of ponzi financing.

  14. Michael Malerba | November 23, 2014 at 7:57 pm |

    Until China actually ramps up it’s investment in PV I wouldn’t get too excited….Let the data speak for itself and go from there….

  15. Hi Steve and all,
    I’m watching the price of First Majestic (AG) today and I see a big drop – about 7%

    I was wondering if anyone else is watching what is happening with AG. Here is an interesting article from Seeking Alpha with some good data on falling revenue and falling free cash flow from ops:


  16. WhatsUpDoc1958 | November 29, 2014 at 8:45 am |

    How does India’s easing of gold import restrictions affect India silver import demand?

    Will India silver import demand decline due to easier gold imports?

    • Doc,

      To tell you the truth… I have no idea anymore. While we all think low precious metals prices will continue indefinitely, while the stock markets head towards the heavens, I think the system will crack sooner rather than later. However, the ENERGY situation will force the end of PAPER MANIPULATION.

      If we continue to see low oil prices, the entire SHALE OIL INDUSTRY in the USA is in severe trouble. Without Global Oil Supply Growth, you can’t have positive GDP growth. How does the FED and CENTRAL BANKS think they could prop up a market when oil production heads south?? It’s impossible.

      If the SWISS vote YES for gold backing tomorrow, ALL BETS ARE OFF for any forecasts going forward. This could cause the severely leveraged paper system to start to unravel… how long, I don’t know but it would send shock-waves throughout the rest of the world.

      if the SWISS vote NO, then we will probably see a TAKE-DOWN in the paper prices of the precious metals for the short-term and it will just take a little longer for the world to wake up to 43 years of FIAT MONETARY AMNESIA.


  17. larry smaith | December 3, 2014 at 1:08 pm |

    Sorry but silver mining will not increase production this year as Cannington’s ore grades are falling off a cliff and many mines have closed!
    I guess you don’t follow this as closely as I do!
    70 million ounces have left the production side just from mines that have closed!
    Also demand will be much higher than shown!
    Canada and the U.S. alone did over 70 million ounces this year and was on line to break 80 million except they ran out of silver rounds to sell!
    Your whole premise is wrong sorry!

  18. larry smaith | December 3, 2014 at 1:16 pm |

    I would also like to add with India up China up the U.S. up Russia up and mining down and yes it is down how do you see a build in inventory?
    I called it 100% right as of August of last year of over 100 million ounces short of supply!
    This year will be much worse!
    Also how can scrap be anywhere near last years when the price is lower and last year scrap fell off the face of the earth?
    You cant sugar coat something that is so bad with mines closing and others cutting back on supply as being a miner you know people in the industry and know way b4 others do!
    Like last year I knew a kgc mine was closing well in advance of almost everybody and people said I was full of bs well low and behold it happened!
    There will be a run on inventories way worse than last year and even my fellow miner stated he thought it would be in the 300 million ounce range!
    First Majestic!@008 will look like a walk in the park in comparison!

Comments are closed.