Has The Global Run On Silver Begun? Shortages On The Horizon?

The situation in the silver market seems to point to the beginning stages of a GLOBAL RUN ON SILVER.  I say, “it seems to point to a RUN on silver” due to several indicators I am looking at.  This also may force the global silver market to suffer shortages in the future.  Why?  Well, let’s take a look at these different indicators.

First, I recently wrote an article Why Is The U.S. Importing So Much Silver Bullion?, showing that U.S. silver imports picked up considerably in the first two months of the year.  Well, this continued into March as total U.S. silver imports reached a hefty 1,504 metric tons (mt) compared to 1,129 mt during the same period last year:

U.S. Silver Imports JAN-MAR 2014 vs 2015

U.S. silver imports are 33% higher than the first quarter of 2014.  If we consider industrial silver demand, Silver Eagle sales and the Comex Silver Inventories, the U.S. Silver Market did not require an additional 375 mt of silver.  Industrial silver demand was probably lower due to a falling U.S. Q1 GDP.  Silver Eagle sales were actually less the first quarter of 2015 compared to 2014 and total Comex silver inventories didn’t change all that much.

So, what gives?  If the U.S. Silver Market needs less silver than it did during the first quarter of 2014, someone must be stockpiling silver.  There has been speculation that JP Morgan may be one of the big buyers.  If they are, they are buying bullion bars and not Silver Eagles or Maples.  Furthermore, I do believe there are hedge funds and individuals coming in and buying huge amounts of Silver Eagles.  This is probably due to the increased financial turmoil stemming from the Greek situation.

Secondly, India is importing the MOST SILVER EVER.  As I mentioned in another article, INDIAN SILVER IMPORTS: On Track To Smash All Records, India imported a massive 3,000 mt in the first four months of the year.  If this trend continues, India will import a whopping 9,000 mt in 2015, surpassing its previous record of 7,000 mt in 2014. 

Indian Silver Imports Jan-Apr 2015

I would imagine if the world suffers a financial contagion resulting from the Greek “NO” vote, we could see Indian silver bullion imports pick up even more in the second half of the year.  This could cause more stress on already tight silver market. 

Third, evidence points to a possible tightness in the physical silver market.  In Keith Weiner’s recent article, Silver Market Change Report July 5, 2015, he published the following chart on the Silver Cobasis:

Silver CoBasis

Keith stated the following about the new change in the silver cobasis:

…. However, look at that red cobasis line go. It was a mere 7 basis points last Friday. It ended this week at 100 bps. The cobasis of farther-out contracts also rose proportionally.

Suddenly, the silver market is firm.

We can name two reasons why the cobasis might skyrocket. One is that there is a risk. If your counterparty defaults, then you don’t get your metal back. You may get dollars. The exchange will insist the dollars are equivalent to the metal, but that’s small consolation.

We do not believe this is the main problem now, because it’s not occurring in gold. If the banks were in imminent danger, the gold basis would not be quiescent.

The other possible reason is that there’s a growing shortage of silver. Of course, in order to decarry silver, you have to have the metal. If it’s not available, you can just wistfully watch the rising cobasis.

Basically, Keith believes the rising cobasis (in RED) is a result of a tightness in the silver market.  He goes on to say this is the present condition, but that could change in the future.

Well, I don’t see conditions in the Global Financial Arena getting any better going forward.  I believe hedge funds and individual buyers are finally figuring out the market is getting OUT-OF-HAND and are placing wise bets by purchasing physical silver.  This can be seen in the huge increase in Silver Eagle buying.

Fourth, the recent surge in Silver (and Gold) Eagle buying.  If we look at the recent update put out by the U.S. Mint, we can see that sales of Silver Eagles spiked in June and continue to be strong in July:

Silver Eagle Sales July 6 2015

Sales of Silver Eagles spiked in June to 4.8 million oz (Moz) compared to 2 Moz in May.  Furthermore, sales continue to be very strong at 1.6 Moz for the first week of July.  If sales of Silver Eagles remain elevated for the rest of the month, we could easily see over 5 Moz sold in July.

Gold Eagles for the first week in July are already 21,500 oz compared to 76,000 oz in June.  Moreover, first week July sales of 21,500 oz are the same amount sold for the entire month of May.  Clearly, we can see that investors are becoming increasingly worried about financial turmoil and possible black swans stemming from the Greek-Exit situation.

Fifth, mine supply falling and Government silver sales… ZILCH.   As I stated in my article, World’s Largest Silver Producer Down A Stunning 12%, Mexico’s silver production fell precipitously in April compared to the same month last year.  According to the data from Mexico’s INEGI, silver production in April declined 58 mt from 486 mt in 2014, to 426 mt this year:

Meixico Silver Production April 2014 vs 2015

Mexico’s total silver production for the first four months of 2015 is 1,801 mt compared to 1,893 mt last year (down 5%).  While Peru’s silver production is higher for the year, another large producer is down considerably.  Thus, silver production from the top producers in the first 3-4 months of 2015 is down compared to last year.  I will do an update on this in a separate article.

The Most Important Factor:  Government Silver Sales Fall To Zero & Why China Is Holding Onto Its Silver

One of the most important factors in the SUPPLY-DEMAND situation for silver has to do with Net Government Silver Sales.  This chart is from my new report called THE SILVER CHART REPORT.  It is listed as Chart #43 of a total of 48 charts in the report.  It is a must read for the new and experienced precious metal investor.

As we can see in the chart, net government silver sales were the highest in 2003 at 88.7 Moz.  Net government silver sales accounted for 15% of total mine supply in 2003. 

Net Government Silver Sales 2003-2014

During the following years, net government silver sales continued to decline (except for the spike in 2010) and in 2014 were a big PHAT ZERO.  While Russia, China and India were the main sources of net government silver sales, China was by far the largest supplier in the group.

Now, the KEY FACTOR to understand why China stopped selling its government silver stocks into the market is stated in THE SILVER MARKET REPORT.  I have to say, I was quite surprised to read the reason China wanted to hold onto to its remaining government silver stocks.  If you want to find out why, you have to read the report.

I believe the world is in the beginning stage of GLOBAL RUN ON SILVER.  The indicators listed above show something has changed in the global silver market.  If the financial situation continues to unravel due to a GREEK EXIT of the European Union, demand for silver will only increase.  Thus, the market will likely experience global silver shortages. 

Unfortunately, this will come at a time when most are waking up to the fact that they are the BIGGEST PAPER BAG HOLDERS in history and there won’t be much physical silver to go around.

If you haven’t checked on THE SILVER CHART REPORT, there’s a great deal of information on the Silver Industry & Market not found in any single publication on the internet.

SIlver Chart Cover Graphic 3D shadowMost analysts focus on a certain area or sector of the silver market. However, the information in this report illuminates a holistic view of many sectors of the silver industry, capturing the relationships that connect many parts of the market.

One of the important aspects of my work is to look at many industries and markets from a bird’s-eye view.  From this perspective, we can see how industries and markets impact each other to a much larger degree than by just focusing on individual sectors.

 CLICK HERE:   For The Silver Chart Report

I use this bird’s-eye approach when I create my easy to understand charts.  The Silver Chart Report is a collection of my top silver charts from articles published over the past six years, and includes in-depth, never-before-seen charts and content that indicate that silver is on the rise. There are 48 charts in the report, broken down in five sections.

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93 Comments on "Has The Global Run On Silver Begun? Shortages On The Horizon?"

  1. Paper Silver | July 6, 2015 at 5:01 pm | Reply

    Low prices = increasing demand.

    • Among buyers of physical gold & silver, who know the lower prices reflect manipulation on the COMEX, and who know that won’t last for a long time from here [physical prices unrealistically low].

      Here is the game some see through [see the end of this setting the physical price of PM’s].

      http://www.zerohedge.com/print/509374

  2. My local dealer is having problems getting enough physical to keep up with demand. He is having to dip in his private stash just to keep some of his regulars satisfied. Steve, when will you be coming out with your report on the silver miners. Looks like now might be a good time to take a position in some of the mining stocks. Are you bullish on First MIning Corp. Thanks for all of your hard work.

  3. No ASE”s or Maple’s at my local shop but the big on line dealers seem to be keeping up…..For now?

  4. Robert Happek | July 6, 2015 at 7:28 pm | Reply

    Steve, there is an argument in favor of stacking silver instead of gold: Once the run on gold sets in, there is a risk of gold confiscation like in 1933. Since silver is to a large extent an industrial metal while gold is mostly hoarded for investment purposes (including jewelery), it is highly unlikely that silver will be ever confiscated. For that reason, stacking silver involves substantially less risk than stacking gold. Should the manipulation of paper gold fail one day, the next step in the currency war could be a prohibition of the gold trade followed by an outright confiscation of gold. The white precious metals are viewed as industrial metals so these will most likely be exempt from confiscation. Gold however, with little industrial usage, is a prime candidate for confiscation (in the interest of national security, of course). For that reason, one should stack mainly silver.

    • Even/w gold 1933 and earlier confiscation, very few people turned in their gold.
      The proof is most of these one ounce, half ounce etc are still held by investors!

      • If we arrived at the moment in time, when the crowd would be finally tempted to rush into physical Gold we will most certainly already live in a totally different world. The elite is planning for that point in time. You better not assume they don’t know that the sheeple would wan’t to rush into hard assets such as Gold and Silver, so they try to prevent that in the first place by supressing it’s price. Everytime there would be good reason for investors to get into Gold and Silver, they smash it’s price to keep people away from it.
        They know though that they can’t keep up that manipulation game for ever so they already have plan B in the drawer.
        The day their manipulation game fails, their’e going to ban cash and all other competing forms of currency such as Bitcoin in order to prevent a rush into those. They will introduce a government controled electronic form of currency all over the globe simultanously. They will say that this is the only solution to prevent total chaos as no central bank nor government would be able to fix that crisis. Governments will be forced to join that new NWO currency virtually overnight even against their will, as their paper currencies have either failed or became totally overvalued as peolpe would rush into those remaining paper currencies in order to escape the NWO currency. You know what it means for the export industry of a country if it’s currency becomes suddenly totally overvalued. So these enterprises will fall to the knees and beg the governemt to become part of that NWO currency and goverments will be terriefied bearing in mind the consequences of not joining that NWO currency. The time cash has been banned is the moment when you have lost all your privacy and you’ll become totally transparant in terms of all your financial transactions.

        So except for barther, which won’t be practical for your everyday life, you’d be forced to sell your PM against something and that something would be this electronic NWO currency. So once that plan works they can tax you to death, should you try to buy or sell PM. As people will realize that their PMs aren’t of great use to them because it will be difficult or even impossible to trade, it’s price could totally collapse. The NWO Elite would have reached their goal of total control and they would most probalby become the opportunity to buy tons of physical Gold and Silver for a tip as many people will want part from it.

        This is still a fiction but such an outcome is likely to happen as the idea of cashless society gave gained political interest and priority in the last two years, especially due to the fact that some countries such as Sweden already introduced the cashless society. Governments also like that idea in order to collect taxes an bail-ins.

  5. Great article ! Stackers, you won’t regret it, our time is close, really excited !! The coming bull market will be one for the history book 🙂

  6. Thank-you very much for your efforts! I read all your stuff and your analysis is more level-headed than anybody’s!
    What are your thoughts on the Platinum discount to Gold these days? PL seems cheap to me(?)
    I am calling the coin shop in the morning!

  7. I bought your report but where is it.

  8. I’m a silver stacker, and I know of 7 people in my area that buy also…we are excited about $15 silver, so we are ordering 3 to 4 times per month. Mainly we are buying eagles, Provident 10 ounce bars, and one ounce rounds. My coin dealers are all out, and any silver that comes in is spoken for many many times down the line. I can’t find any 90% silver in my area…when silver was over $30, it was easy to get. Hopefully silver stays low for a while.

  9. Thanks for the Pep-Article. It’s been a frustrating few years. We stack, we wait, we watch the manipulators getting away with murder (literally) so hopefully soon we’ll be rewarded. Not that I need to sell any metal. It’s just painful to watch the charts.

  10. With the success of of silver eagle sales would this make sense? So the US Mint stamps out Silver Eagles and makes two bucks each. It must have crossed their minds that if they could change the face value to $20, they could sell gazillions at face value and (at today’s prices) make four bucks each. Who would NOT empty their bank accounts to buy a zero risk investment with a very interesting potential? Okay what would be the problems with this?

  11. unfortunately the price of silver is not set by supply and demand. It gets rehypothicated and set by phony etf selling by big banking cartels.

    • Yes, and it will be that way until the COMEX and other manipulation forces can’t control the physical price, the whole idea behind this article. That day is getting closer, not farther away.

  12. Make no mistake, SILVER vs 500 trillion in derivatives. Silver = The People Derivertives = The Bankers. They will let their own go down before allowing the People to take control. Many years away yet Prob our kids or there kids will benefit. Sorry

    • I assure you as a geologist and one that has followed silver closely for years, the price of silver won’t be set by the COMEX for much longer. What is “much longer”? Less time than it has been in their grip since the 2011 price smash.

  13. When ever a bullish news or orticle comes the markets go down .

  14. Ethercruiser1 | July 7, 2015 at 3:37 am | Reply

    I simply continue to cost average buying gold & silver monthly with dollars that at the end of each month are “extra dollars’ I will not need in the foreseeable future to use otherwise (to pay bills with, etc). Do I like seeing the spot price of gold & silver continue to drop? Not really, it’s a bit painful at times… but then I know I will get more ounces of gold & silver for the same price in US fiat Dollars that month. If you cannot afford to stack gold & silver because you are likely to need those dollars to pay bills, don’t stack. Pay down your debts first & become debt free. Don’t “store” too many “extra dollars” in a bank account. Bank bail-ins & capital controls are probably coming soon to the USA.

  15. Excellent post here. These times are tough and stacking silver is an excellent way to hedge the market. Great charts as well. What would you recommend to someone immediately looking to invest? Silver or gold? Or a mix? Thanks for a great read!

    • Mostly silver, as the gold silver ratio, factors mentioned in this article, plus others, favor silver over gold.

  16. must be my karma, the Ag market is Zigging, but my program calls for my Zagging in the Au miner stocks…I am getting a self imposed lock-out situation…I hope the long term works to my favor

  17. No shortgage : silver destoyed another 3%+

    I guess the silver cobasis has already gone down big time…

    • RD,

      LOL… you have no idea just how much buying is going on behind the scenes. No idea whatsoever….LOL.

      steve

      • Despite Hotler’s fairy tales there will not be any kind of default on silver futures everywhere in the world, mines will continue to produce more silver for the next few years even with silver at single digits, and comex will remain the most important price maker and chinindia will have nothing to say about the prices : they will buy (or not) what the comex determines.

      • i forgot : and Iran will flood the oïl market with their oïl !

        After 2020, they may be some problems but until, there will be oïl surproduction.

  18. 15 broken on silver : massacre will increase

    • Unlikely, but I hope so. That will make he manipulation run it’s course [end sooner]. Lower prices hasten that day.

      Basic economic law [relationship between physical supply and demand] can’t be perverted & denied forever with COMEX manipulation. For the COMEX to set physical prices ad infinitum would require an ever-increasing supply of physical silver. Those that believe there is an ever-increasing supply of physical silver at below-cost-of-mining & refining-price are naive or obtuse.

      • The idea is to reduce the demand and in the west it is a great success without speaking of hedge funds which are cutting their long positions and increasing their short ones.

    • I agree…massacre will go on as it should have been capped years ago…
      He who prints the money makes the rules!

    • Probably, but capitulation and rapid price increase will follow, so bring it on!

  19. I hope you’re right about that rise. Because days like today (silver down 75 cents as I write) are damned discouraging. When the world doesn’t work the way we think it should maybe our premises are wrong.

    • hmuller,

      The markets are being propped up by massive amounts of monetary liquidity put forth by the Fed and Central Banks. People think there is a glut of silver, when in fact there is a glut of worthless paper floating around he world.

      According to the recently released OCC Report, JP Morgan now controls 96% of the commodity derivatives and CitiGroup controls 70% of precious metal derivatives. This all when EXPONENTIAL the last quarter. Something must be up for these two institutions to increase their derivatives exposure that much.

      steve

    • that’s also my concern, if the PBOC does not want to change the rules for their own success, nobody will

      SRS also does not realize that the paper prices and the physical volumes trades are two different subjects

      • RD,

        I gather you have no idea why China stopped selling Silver into the market. Of course, you didn’t read my new report that states why the Chinese Govt stopped selling their silver.

        Regardless, owning silver is for the mid-long term. While the markets will continue to be run by the manipulation put forth by the central banks, this is not a LONG TERM VIABLE SOLUTION.

        GOD HATH A SENSE OF HUMOR.

        steve

        • For your information, I have bought your report yesterday for the primary reason is to support your work on this web site !

          It is no secret that PBOC is stacking gold (for silver I am not sure that they have added, possible).

          the fact is that comex is the nearly only monetary metals price setter (despite having volumes 10 ten lower than in lbma).

          It is possible for China to decide to be the price maker/setter in 2020, or 2030 or 2050 who knows, if they do not decide to change their strategy before (it would be stupid but they are used to act stupidly such in the mao era).

          • RD,

            I didn’t see your name on the purchase orders. I find it hard to believe you want to support my work with those sort of comments. As I mentioned in response to silverfreaky. I am reading the book THE BIG SHORT which explains how Kyle Bass and his associates got in the SUB-PRIME market early and were ridiculed towards the end by many of their large investors. Many decided to get out of the trade because they thought Bass was FULL OF SH*T.

            Same thing going on in the Precious Metals today. Nothing different… same weak mentality. I don’t mind folks putting heat on me. I am used to it. I never said this was a short term trade.

            U.S. shale oil production is already in decline and I would imagine will be down to 6-7 million barrels per day by 2020. These lower prices just make a BAD SITUATION WORSE for the U.S. Shale oil industry.

            WHERE ARE THE FRICKEN BALLS IN THE MEN HERE. For pete sakes, the few woman who purchased the report would never behave in this WHINY FASHION. They understand LONG-TERM investment and fundamentals.

            steve

  20. silverfreaky | July 7, 2015 at 8:30 am | Reply

    Today we loose only 5%.Steve how long will you spread your wrong messages?
    Have mercy with the peoples money.

    You went into the wrong direction and do not want to accept it.

    • silverfreaky,

      I have always stated that owning silver is a MID-LONG Term investment. Got to love Americans. While the price of silver falls, Indian’s buy record amounts while Americans GRIPE, COMPLAIN and MOAN.

      Folks have no idea that the 100’s of Trillions in Derivatives are not sustainable. The Fed and Central Bank Playbook have taken many of the precious metals investors HOOK, LINE & SINKER.

      SilverFreaky… your remark is typical. I would like to remind you that Kyle Bass who made $600 million on betting against the SUB-PRIME market got in 3-4 years early and was NITPICKED to death by investors who didn’t believe him towards the end. Well, Kyle Bass was proven correct.

      Unfortunately, the WHINERS, COMPLAINERS and BELLY-ACHERS couldn’t take it and bailed. Kyle Bass didn’t mind waiting for his $600 million in profits.

      Steve

    • Smart people buy cheap and sell expensive. People who want to buy expensive are the contrary to smart.

    • Freaky, one can’t measure physical stuff in unlimited and unbacked fiat. Period! And certainly not in digitally manipulated one’s & zero’s. IOU’s are burning everywhere. I used to look at stupid Kitco shit, now i’m just buying phyz. All paper goes to zero, in your life.

      And btw, it’s not peoples money, it’s currency.

      Gold & silver is money.

  21. silverfreaky | July 7, 2015 at 8:44 am | Reply

    Do you really think people can wait another 5 years?
    Most of them will be broken and have to sell.You forget that we have prices in the time-area ten years back.
    Not many people sell silver at 40 dollar.

    • For me yes it the prices cannot go much lower than current levels

      • RD,

        If you are in leveraged paper trades… you should know better. Buying and owning physical is the only way to go.

        steve

        • Indeed Steve. Because LEVERAGE is turning it’s ugly head the other way as we can see already in almost every ‘market’.

    • That´s your jew masters dream, regretably it won´t work, their little experiment EU is already imploding

  22. silverfreaky | July 7, 2015 at 9:59 am | Reply

    Buy and hold don’t work.Look to the chart.A long time down a short time up.

  23. RD Whats that short for? (Really dopey?) And the “freak” with silver in front!

    Stop wasting Steve’s and our time. We understand that you both of you “DON’T GET IT”!
    Investing in physical precious is a long term wealth insurance plan. NOT a trading platform.

    I think you are both a pair of paid trolls that just bounce from site to site, Inciting as much controversy and infighting as you can stir. Just go away. So sorry (NOT), you will not be missed.

    DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS.

    • As you can see, US mint suspends the silver coins sales until early august : it confirms that COMEX is the only price setter : the gold/silver prices will continue to crater. Shortgages could develop if asians despite being destroyed in china by their leveraged stock bubbles and… nothing more.

      Paper determines the prices and people after decide to buy and sell physical at that levels but this sytem which is now quite old is most surely destined to continue for a while.

      The question is how many years : 2, 5, 10, 20…

      • RD, you are a fool. China has put in the infrastructure to upturn comex’ little apple cart. phys only contracts in shanghai, alternative price setting mechanism, hiding their holdings from the world, openly saying they want to strengthen their currency
        it is entirely at their whim to pull the trigger, offer a premium for phys gold, which will drain the last vestiges of gold from the west, and then BOOM they will dictate the price.

        who the hell will sell into comex when china is offering a premium. Its game over. keep your money in the comex all you want, chump, its worthless paper and you will be impermitted to participate or profit when gold is rediscovered

        • Agreed Carlos. But…when ???

          It is like fed rate hike, it is always 6 months from now…

          In the meantime comex rules…

          • You are right about that!

          • When this will happen is not akin to the Fed raising rates. The Fed is in a bind and is doubly screwed if the US goes into recession while ZIRP persists.
            CHINA, however, has every incentive to withhold pulling the trigger while it can continue to accumulate cheap gold from the vaults of the West. With the exception possibly of its prevailing turmoil in the last week, which may force its hand to pull the trigger early, China has the luxury of knowing that the Wests manipulation is its eventual gain

  24. Hi Steve, silver crowd,

    no opinion on the silver market here. But there will be no greek Euro exit etc. – only if really unforeseeable things happen and everything gets out of hand (not likely).

    The whole greek “crisis” is a big gamble and it will be officially resolved by next sunday. It is a huge drama to get the german etc. public to acquiece in yet another bail out, which would hurt their public funds this time, MSM media going along with the plan. Nothing to see here, move on.
    For german language readers:

    http://staatsstreich.at/europas-polit-getaenzel-oder-die-inszenierung-vollendeter-tatsachen.html

    • its not possible for the Euro to remain intact, its design is fundamentally flawed. There is no method of fiddling with the debt that will enable Greece to grow while trapped in a currency that does not facilitate its growth. For greece to remain in means their economy will continue to deteriorate. Greece’s detroitification is almost complete as it is, and at some point if its politicians dont serve the people instead of the bondholders, there will be a civil war

      • Carlos, while I agree, that the design of the Euro is fundamentally flawed, I would not underestimate the possibilities to keep Greece in the eurozone, especially if there is a strong political will to do so. This will can go a long way.

        Btw. Greece has never seen industrialisation in a meaningful sense, so it’s a problem to speak of detroitification. Cheers

  25. I know where a lot of the Mint’s ASE sales went. At APMEX you can see their inventory and their 2015 BU ASE’s are currently at 746,141 coins in stock. They also have a multitude of other ASE categories with their own inventory of listed supplies. With the authorized dealer allocation restrictions now removed, APMEX apparently saw the writing on the wall and has cornered the current supply.

    Sorry Ted, it’s seems it’s not JPM who’s buying all the ASE’s.

  26. silverfreaky | July 8, 2015 at 2:50 am | Reply

    I had to pay my bills in euro not in silver.Why you call me a troll?
    My average silver price is 27€/oz.My miner stock are down 30%.And this since 2011.

    The whole information I believed since 2011 from the PM Lobby was proofed to be wrong for me.
    The statement long term investment i don’t accept.

    Everything I wrote here is my personal view and has nothing to to with bashing.
    Since I wrote that we go in a depression mode the price is falling like a stone.
    I told this before.And exactly this happened.
    Today the information came that the chinese stock market will collapse.
    The only possibility to to stop the falling is a physical shortage.

    Good luck all with the silver investment.

    • Silver will utimately follow gold (but is always taken down with copper). Platinum and palladium could take a different path.

  27. I suppose silver shortage is mainly us problem, because in eu I see there is still plenty of silver and at much lower price.

    • Ralph,

      If there wasn’t a 20% vat tax on silver in most European countries, I would imagine sales of official silver coins would be 30-50 Moz per year or even higher. Germany was actually producing nearly 10 Moz of Silver Euro coins per year between 2003-2005, but fell to a lousy 600,000 oz in 2013.

      The world’s silver above ground stocks have been depleted over the past two decades, and I would imagine we are getting close to running out of this supply. It has been a five decade systematic depletion of the world’s monetary silver.

      The silver market will become very explosive after the peak and decline of global oil production.

      steve

      • If shortgages increase over the time, northern america will do the same, and demand will just disappear.

        PBOC is the only key : either they have balls or they do not.

        In the past, they have shown none and are used to commit collective suicide namely with the Mao’s era.

        • RD,

          I talk with many people in the industry. Forget Official Silver Coin sales, the amount of silver bar investment is now larger than Silver Eagle and Maple sales.

          You have no clue what is taking place in the wholesale market.

          Steve

          • That would be indeed a good sign if big boys would begin the stack silver 5000 oz bars.
            However the retail investment is still quite large in the global market so if it has to disappear in north american and in india because of even higher import duty, it would be very bad news for silver/gold.

  28. I know you think solar is not that important but every bit of usage helps
    /www.engadget.com/2015/07/06/army-scientists-build-smaller-tougher-cheaper-solar-cells

  29. silverfreaky | July 8, 2015 at 7:04 am | Reply

    There is always an special number of coins witch had to be print.So when there are no eagles availabe they had to start a new batch.That has nothing to do that there is no raw material in hand.

    After a time you can buy as much as you want.

    • “There is always an special number of coins witch had to be print.So when there are no eagles availabe they had to start a new batch.”

      Not true concerning American Silver Eagle bullion coins. There are no pre-set production limitations at the beginning of the year. When they can’t get blanks fast enough [shortage], they have to stop taking orders for a while. If it is in December they may stop production of that year’s dated coins, and resume taking orders for the new year’s coins in January. It has everything to do with shortage of raw materials.

  30. To those who desire 4 dollar silver it would serve you right if the mines were put out of business and you couldn’t buy a grain of silver for the price of house. Be careful what you wish for.

    • I certainly not wish it : I say it is a real possibility if BRICS does not change the rules.

      I think the bottom is probably more around 8/10 USD than 4/5 but possible nonetheless IMO.
      Moreover, if so, I do not say it will stay 10 years at this level necessarly.

      For now it appears PBOC which is the leader of the pack, is making all the same mistakes the west did in the previous century : debt, leverage, counterfeit paper and bubbles.

      As I said : shortgage is not a problem for the price setter comex while there is silver for industry and as copper by products it could be OK for a couple of years.

  31. Good Call Steve,

    I’ve was just checking out ebay for a Roll of 2015 Eagles and with only a couple examples with the auction ending soon, one auction ending in 8 hours, bid price is currently $403 with 13 bidders…..

    The RUN is ON…….

  32. Oil and gold/silver is about the same : despite a 50% rout oil prices, production is not falling at all…

    It is the same for gold and silver, even at single and triple digit for silver and gold, production will nearly not decrease.

    • RD,

      You are also clueless about silver production. Silver production from the top producers is currently down considerably. I will report the data on this shortly.

      Steve

      • I agree I was probably too categoric and exterme as the silver rout for examples is 2 years old while oïl one is very recent but the decrease for gold and silver is very low (like for platinum).

  33. silverfreaky | July 9, 2015 at 1:16 am | Reply

    HUI is now at a Low from 12 years.it’s unbelievable.My stocks lose again 10% in this short time.
    Minus 40% and no end in sight.

    Soon there will be breakdowns from the miners.Then all money is away.
    Thanks to the PM Lobby.

    And the great depression is only starting?I’am relative shure that we lose much more money.
    When the stock market breaks down the best is to have cash.Exactly the opposite to the recommandations from here.
    We will see.When I’am wrong i will make an official apologizing.

    Sorry for my english.
    Your Freaky!

    • For a few months cash (usd, euro, yen,…) will be more useful but after, I will gold/silver will outperform cash.

      Most miners will died and will gobbled by china for peanuts.

    • “When the stock market breaks down the best is to have cash.Exactly the opposite to the recommandations from here.”

      Having some cash [physical paper] in one’s possession, outside the banking system, is prudent. Having tens of thousands of dollars or euros, or more in a bank, as reflected in a bank statement on paper, or digits in an account, is risky.

      In a recent comment Steve advised having between $2,000 and $5,000 in cash. That is in one’s own personal possession. More than that valuation, whether in cash or PM’s or jewelry, and one ought to consider hiding it in a place other than a safe, as one could always be robbed at gunpoint, cash burns, and metals melt in a fire.

  34. gold or silver is not intvestment per se, it’s more like van gogh paint, either u have it or not, it’s not best inflation hedgs also as there are much better, what it is short selling governments stupidity,
    for time beeing silver go down below 12$ in nearest future and then ….

    • HIGHLY unlikely to go down further; check spot markets; it is up.

      almost all opinions that silver will go down further [like to $12] are opinions from someone who is very poorly informed about what determines prices in the short run and long run.

  35. Silvrwillwin | July 9, 2015 at 6:50 am | Reply

    Jordan Belfort , the real Wolf of Wallstreet might have been a you know what in his day , but what he said after he came clean makes sense to this reader : ” Money is like oxygen ” To that I agree , and I also agree in sharing it with your friends and family , if possible.
    Right now physical gold and silver are being held down by the present Wolves of Wallstreet and other foul minded folks throughout the Fed ,Congress , lobbiests , centrl banking , etc.. Make no mistake though , the physical WILL find their true levels once this whole phony financial Titanic breaks in two and slips below the surface.
    It may take some time after a catastrophic drop of the market to arrive there , but in due time physical gold and silver will prove to be that oxygen that you will need to survive.

  36. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VCzQoqM2wM

    As Mike Maloney points outs in this audio, electronic selling of positions, futures, and contracts can cause silver sell-offs along with stock & other sell-offs, as in 2008. The silver price dropped to about $9, but due to extreme silver shortage selling prices were double that [$18] for premium silver like ASE’s. So if COMEX or other BS pricing drops from here, premiums will increase…as they are doing right now with ASE’s. The COMEX price in time will be irrelevant to physical price.

    Some people refuse to understand silver is in short supply.

  37. to be correctly understood, I’m loading phisical PM’s but on the oter hand chart’s shows me short in paper metals so i’m doing this, untill trend change, but even if price will rally 50-100$ day this may be trouble for phisical metal owner to exchange for money as taxess, bans, etc… who knows what else gov may do to take over metals..

  38. Yes, the short squeeze will begin soon, if it hasn’t begun already. We will all be millionaires very soon. Only this is a specific kind of short squeeze, where the price of silver actually drops. So, we will be rich only in our dreams. The only people who got rich in the silver sales pitch are Casey, Sprott, and Turk. Where are they now? Have you heard of them lately? I didn’t. That’s because they are having a good time at beach resorts for DOLLARS, because they sold their shitty silver to idiots like us.

  39. silverfreaky | July 9, 2015 at 2:54 pm | Reply

    Right.And today the HUI again down.But everything is fine.We are trolls because we claim that the PM lobby and especially the miner managment has made a million dollar.

    Still no great miner dying.I ask me where is the money I paid for my ounces.

    Is here anybody who thinks that people who burned there fingers in such an investment ever touch this again.They must be really stupid.
    Is this an special illnes from the silver bugs.Kognitive Dissonaz?

    • PM “investing” looks more like a religion to me. The more money and purchasing power you lose, the more convinced you become that there are evil conspiracies everywhere. Just like bigots seeing Jesus’ face in every cup of coffee. Or maybe it’s more like a drug addict who really believes that he pushes up the needle one more time and then he’s done forever. Similarly, silver idiots believe that the world will go down in flames any day now and the only people who will survive untouched will be silver holders. On the one hand all these arguments are very boring and stupid, on the other hand I don’t get how cocksuckers like Turk are not being prosecuted right now. Yeah, sure, his price targets were not investment advice… But why not put it to the test of a judge or a jury? When is it investment advice? How long do you have to push out articles, blogs, videos, commentaries, so that all your words do become advice? Never? No accountability ever?

  40. No evil.When china get trouble we will see much deeper prices.
    It’s very easy.We payed to much for silver.The pumper did a good job.

    You never lose money at the market, it only changes the owner.
    But maybe tomorrow we see a worldwide crash and we are all millionärs.

    Otherwise I recommand you to live very healthy, to sell silver at the same price
    you bought It.It may last years.

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