TOP GOLD MINERS: Yields Fall To The Lowest Levels Ever

With the results for 2013 finally in, the top gold miners average yield fell to the lowest level ever.  This is a surprising development considering that the average price of gold dropped to a low of $1,411 in 2013.  Normally when the price of gold falls, gold miners switch to higher grades to remain profitable.

However, the top five gold miners’ average yield declined another 5% in 2013.  If we look at the chart below, the top five gold miners (Barrick, Newmont, AngloGold, Goldfields* & Goldcorp) average yield fell from 1.26 grams per ton (g/t) in 2012 to 1.20 g/t in 2013.

(*Note:  GoldFields spun-off three mines into a new company called Sibanye Gold in 2012.  The data below includes both companies listed as GoldFields.)

Top 5 Gold Production & Average Yield 2005-2013

Furthermore, the average gold yield for the group declined from 1.68 g/t in 2005 to 1.20 g/t in 2013.  Which means these miners lost 0.48 g/t in just eight years… a 29% decline.  That might not sound like a lot, but if we do the math… it’s a substantial loss.

The next chart provides the astonishing blow to the gold mining industry.  In 2005, the group processed 464 million metric tons of ore to produce 25.2 million ounces of gold at an average yield of 1.68 g/t.  In 2013, this same group processed 592 metric tons of ore (27% more), to produce 22.9 million ounces of gold.

This is the negative side of the gold mining industry.  Moreover, the amount of waste rock removed is even greater.  For example, Newmont reported the following data in their 2007 & 2013 Sustainability Reports;

Newmont Statistics

2005 Gold Production = 8.2 million oz

2005 Total Waste Rock = 425 million tonnes

2005 Waste Rock/Production Ratio = 52 metric tons/ gold oz

2013 Gold Production = 5.5 million oz

2013 Total Waste Rock = 620 million tonnes

2013 Waste Rock/Production Ratio = 113 metric tons/ gold oz

Newmont doubled the amount of waste rock generated to produce an ounce of gold in 2013 than it did in 2005.  This wasn’t a straight increase over the eight year time-span.  However the waste rock/ production ratio was 86 metric tons per ounce of gold in 2012… 65% higher than 2005.

The more waste rock Newmont has to remove, the more energy is consumed in the process.  In 2005, Newmont consumed 19 gallons of diesel in its operations to produce one ounce of gold.  By 2012, this increased to a staggering 31 gallons per ounce…. a 63% increase in seven years.

As we can see, falling ore grades become a very expensive factor for the mining industry.

Not all the top five gold miners suffered a decline in average yields in 2013.  Barrick, Newmont and AngloGold saw a drop in average yields in 2013, while GoldFields (include Sibanye Gold) and GoldCorp reported a slight increase.

The company who suffered the largest decline in yield was AngloGold:

AngloGold Production & Average Yield 2005-2015

AngloGold’s average yield fell 15% in 2013 compared to 2012, while Newmont declined 10% and Barrick at 6%.  Even though these declines seem quite large, I imagine we may actually see a leveling off or increase in yields from these companies in 2014.

Unfortunately, high-grading their mines to remain profitable at lower prices is only a temporary solution. Worse yet, the link provides information on how this method can leave a great deal of gold in the ground due to selecting the high-grade ore while leaving low-grade ore uneconomical to extract.

So, if these top gold miners decide to high-grade their mines, we may see a leveling (or slightly rising) of yields in 2014.  However, this may actually speed up the decline rates in yields further down the road.

I am waiting for data to be released by two companies so I can update my chart on the average diesel consumption per ounce from the top five gold miners.  With the majority of results already in… I can honestly say, diesel consumption per ounce in 2013 will hit a new record high.

As ore grades continue to decline, the cost to produce gold will inevitably rise.  Some readers believe the higher energy price will be the factor to push the value of gold to new highs.  Actually, I don’t believe this will be the case.

The world cannot afford high oil prices.  We may experience temporary OIL PRICE SPIKES, but I doubt the price of a barrel of Brent crude will continue to rise towards $200.

The price of gold and silver will rise to extreme levels in the future not on the back of higher oil prices, but rather due to a falling oil supply and its impact on the $100+ trillion of worthless paper-mache floating around the world’s markets.

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34 Comments on "TOP GOLD MINERS: Yields Fall To The Lowest Levels Ever"

  1. Outlookingin | July 18, 2014 at 11:19 am |

    “worthless paper-mache”. A very apt description of fiat currency.

    Too many people describe the value of gold as dollars per ounce, rather than how much of something can an ounce of gold be traded for. What will the market give me for an ounce of gold? Again, valuation is all in the persons perception of the value of physical gold and to what degree they covet ownership of that gold.

    At some point the great revaluation is coming. Not a question of if, but of when. To what will gold be valued in, if all fiat currencies are “paper-mache”? Tangibles. Oil, wheat, farmland, iron ore, timber, food, etc. These revalued tangibles will dictate the “price” of gold in whatever mode of exchange is instituted, for the next global unit of account.

    If you are still keeping your wealth in fiat currencies, or paper assets backed by these fiat currencies, then you are in for a rude awakening and much financial pain. You will be financially wiped out.

  2. Steve, you can turn almost every post into gold and silver. Shouldn’t you change the logo? Yeah, i know, the number of views. The day you can turn rocks into gold, i’d like to buy your paid report on that.

    Your site and opinions are quite unique, imho, don’t screw that up by becoming another Turd.

    Best regards and thanks a lot for putting me ‘on track’!

    • houtskool,

      I began writing articles on gold and silver before focusing on the EROI. My inspiration is in the gold and silver markets… whether it is mining, physical metals or the markets. However, the EROI is the determining factor for EVERYTHING. That is the reason I used it in my LOGO. Almost a SUBTLE approach. It gets people thinking.

      It’s kind of like gravity. Gravity affects everything, but we don’t write or talk much about it much. I do plan on writing articles and REPORTS on the EROI, but my focus is building a readership base. I do include the EROI in many of my articles.

      My first paid report will be on U.S. Gold Scrap-Import-Export-Mine Supply-Consumption market. There are some very interesting things and trends taking place. Even though this is not directly about the EROI, the EROI is an underlying factor.

      Lastly, I don’t see the connection to Turd’s work. While we do both discuss gold and silver, Turd focusing on the COT and the trading charts. I focus on how ENERGY impacts the precious metals, mining and overall economy. There are only a few analysts doing this… such as Chris Martenson. But he doesn’t put out the detailed data on the energy and mining industry as I do.

      Thanks for your comments and interest in the site.


      • Thanks for your reply. Nothing wrong with the metals, i know your not a pusher.

        Last few months i get the feeling certain websites are being directed in a for tbtf more comfortable direction. Behind the curtain a new financial system is being implemented, ‘they’ don’t want interruption of their plans. But it’s just a feeling, nothing more.

        Sumtin’s fishy, but i don’t know what. I’m Dutch, and i’m in sales, so i know when sumtin’s fishy.

        But maybe it’s just me.

  3. And yet gold/silver prices continue to FALL while the stock market continues to RISE. When are you guys gonna wake up realise the PM bubble popped in 2011 and that the prices are going to keep going lower? You’ve missed out on the BIGGEST stock market rally!

    • Let’s see, ytd performance on the diamonds is +4.5% which is not bad, compared with a
      +9.5% rise in gold and silver. Of course, the money power has thrown the kitchen sink at the metals, while forcing every 401k in the universe into the stock gulag, so it’s not really a fair comparison. Check out the inverse H&S in gold, it’s a whopper.

    • Tj,

      While many people regurgitate that “The precious metals investors missed out on the BIGGEST stock market rally”, we are in it for the long-run. I could really care less about paper profits in the broader stock market. If an individual does not have a good amount of physical gold and silver stored away, including bulk food and a rural property (to grow some food) away from the Suburbs… you are really not prepared.

      So, in that regard… talk about gains in the Dow Jones seems quite insignificant.


      • All these doom and gloom sites follow the same template:

        1) Use FEAR to keep people out of the markets (ie: US dollar will collapse, hyperinflation etc)
        2) To sell something to you that will help you get through these troubled time…be part of the wealth transfer!

        It doesn’t matter how you cut it but, people who have followed this doom and gloom nonsense have missed out in THE BIGGEST stock market rally recently AND their precious metals have collapsed in value.

        The typical loser response is to say: We are in it for the long term! Or, PMs protect your purchasing power. Excuse me but PMs COLLAPSED by about a third for gold and about 60% for silver…how did that protect your purchasing power?? Please explain.

        I have been following all this doom and gloom stuff for over ten years and you know what? NONE OF IT HAS COME TRUE!:

        1) The collapse of the US dollar…nope
        2) Hyperinflation…nope
        3) Total stock market collapse…nope

        Why are precious metal dealers willing to swap precious metals for fiat money if fiat is so evil? Makes you wonder.

        There are problems in the world today but all this doom and gloom stuff is nonsense and isn’t helping people.

        People who invest in the mining stocks have lost THEIR SHIRTS while other stock rallied!

        • TJ, you should be very careful when the time comes that your artificial paper world starts looking for hard assets, all at once.

          The paper world is a manipulated controlled mess. You can skim some ‘wealth’ during the ride, but fundamentals tell me that the train is gonna stop very abrupt against the mountain of shortage in the near future.

          Timing is personal.

        • TJ,

          Many wise men during Ancient Rome warned of the coming collapse of the Roman Empire. So maybe they were off a few years, doesn’t change the fact that it indeed collapsed. Anyhow, I am not here to convince you. Just wait around a while longer…. everything comes with patience….LOL.


          • So after all my points the best you guys can come up with is: Just keep waiting?!

            More fear driven NONSENSE. How about sticking to the FACTS rather?

        • TJ,

          I would agree that ‘sticking to the facts’ is the best way to go…

          one ‘fact’ to bear in mind though is that ‘facts’ are always subject to ‘interpretation’ … and that trying to treat facts as mere ‘data points’ is a mugs game… indulged in by those who lack the wit to make deductive reasoning a part of their thinking process. And the first thing that goes out the window when ‘factionalism’ – of the kind which infests the precious metals community – is ‘factualism’ …the untarnished willingness to get to… and stick to … the truth.

          Your menu of points is interesting, because of how it underlines the above.
          1) The collapse of the US dollar…nope
          2) Hyperinflation…nope
          3) Total stock market collapse…nope

          Dollar collapse is indeed a wished for end in the programmed thinking of the gold/silverbug faction. It is a required part of their prescription whereby printed fiat $ creates hyperinflation… leading to cost of living crises, loss of business confidence and credit availability… and thusly creating the conditions whereby their fantasies of living large whilst the rest are pauperized are realized. Little do they understand what they wish for!

          The other side of the pm coin… what I’ll call the ‘traders’ – are little cognizant of bigger picture stuff… and while perhaps accurate in refusing to buy into the consensus ‘manipulation myths’ that drive the fanatic fringe to their ‘ecstasy of gold’ runabouts… actively discourage investigations into what is the real conspiracy hiding behind the limited hangouts offered by popular scribblers to confuse and distract those few of us who really want to understand what’s going on.

          As my own efforts here have consistently shown, any attempts to find middle ground is met with a torrent of tantrums… volcanoes of vitriol… emotionalism writ large, in other words… the last thing you would expect to find at the fore of investment strategizing! Collateral damage in this sad circus of lost souls is the much needed ability to pull truth out of whatever rabbit hole it pops up from time to time within.

          I was much surprised for instance, to see Steve refer to Martin A as a ‘clown’ recently;’ of all the many things you could say about Marty… umm… I think it’s a lock that ‘clown’ is not fair comment. The man is too well connected… well regarded… and well researched to fit that description. Whether his predictions are accurate is entirely another matter… but so far, he is outdoing everybody else in the field.

          In regards to your points, TJ, Armstrong consistently points out that hyperinflation is a consequence of loss of confidence in a currency…. NOT money printing. Dollar collapse can and WILL occur… WHEN that scenario is realized… not the goldbug version. Stock markets will echo the currency collapse. He is pointing to end of 2015/2016 for this event. He is also consistently reminding readers that he sees gold as a primary safe haven for that eventuality…but cautions the avaricious nature of state and corporate greed to secure investor assets is growing dangerously.

          All good stuff… and useful to any of us with metals in our portfolios… yet the man suffers no end of abuse…. hate is plentiful… calm debate scarce. Those who refuse to abide his right to see the end of this cycle being a year or two further down the road are like little boys who just can’t hold it in…they really have no business being in gold or silver!

          While I see your basic summary of investment ‘gains’ resulting from holding paper equities in this pre-collapse phase of ‘marketless markets’ in the same comedic light as most do here… I do so for much different reasons – and am not the least bit disturbed by your argument. It’s not so much about ‘waiting’ like characters in a Sam Beckett play, TJ …as stepping outside the this theatre of the absurd entirely… to become both playwright and actor in one’s own production. If puppet shows are your thing… hey… nothin wrong wit dat!

          No houtskool… it’s not just you. Somethin is… indeed… goin down!

          • Martin Armstrong IS a clown. His track record is appauling. Why would anyone listen to him? Lets be honest here, if someone you are following/subscribing to or using for guidance ISN’T helping you make money then they are a clown and/or a con. It doesn’t matter how knowledgeable they are on a particular subject. If they can’t help me grow my portfolio they are wasting my time…and money.

            The US isn’t going to see hyperinflation, its just not going to happen. There will be higher inflation but hyperflation? No way.

            You said: pre-collapse phase of ‘marketless markets’

            More fear driven nonsense! Knock it all you want but “paper equities” have gone UP substantially in the last few years while the precious metals have done DOWN.

            When are people going to admit that the precious metal bubble has POPPED and that the prices are going LOWER. Don’t even get me started about the mining shares, they are terrible “investments”. Most are complete failures.

            All this doom and gloom porn has been going on for ages now and the point of it all is to convince you to buy precious metals (have you noticed how all these so called experts have something to sell you? Hmm) and to keep you out of the “evil” stock market.

            There won’t be a collapse.
            There won’t be hyperinflation.
            The US dollar isn’t going to zero

            These so called “experts” have been repeating the same fear driven nonsense for many years now.

            Has anyone noticed that SRSrocco has ads on it? Hmmm. While I type this comment up there is an ad for “TD Direct Investing”! Can you believe that? I’m being told on a website that “paper equities” are evil and that I should hold gold/silver/land and yet Steve is taking money from an advertiser for a stock broker to trade those nasty paper equites! Doesn’t everyone think that a bit odd?

          • Rogue,

            Looks like your attempt to use logic with TJ backfired…LOL Be my guest to continue debating him. However, I am not wasting any more of my time. It’s a LOUSY EROI.


          • Steve,

            No backfire noises heard on this end…

            since the fellow has been given an opportunity to follow his own precepts – eg. “let’s stick to the facts”…

            and failed miserably to follow them… his input can be dismissed as typical hypocritical cant. Every kRuStYdeserves a chance… and a speedy exit where it is blown!

            Armstrong has made big players big money. And continues to do so: it amuses to no end to hear “clowns” take a tack on his performance as if they have any skin in the game. Clown is as clown does. Next?

            by the bye Steve… Marty has followed up on the silver coins in China issue. I was reluctant to comment on your previous post as I did not wish to take sides, and was not sure whether you were making a polemical point or honestly did not realize that his quote:

            There have been hundreds of yearly intervals where money was NEVER precious metals and what about Asia where China never issued precious metal coins”

            is correct…and your dismissal of him with:

            “However, the notion that China never issued or used precious metals as currency is blatantly false. Martin gets an “F” on this call”

            misrepresents what his quoted words say.

            Imperial China did not in fact coin silver money. Or gold. They used the weight system, and the government stayed out of the mint business. Later on, when the Spanish introduced American silver to the Far East, the commercial classes there became accustomed to using pieces of eight as a standard trade exchange measure… but THEY WERE STILL WEIGHED… like sycee.

            Later still, when the Spanish silver era collapsed from oversupply, the Chinese continued to use – and prefer – the Mexican Libertad… favored for it’s absolute consistency of measure – which allowed money to change hands without service of a weigher, because everybody knew what they were getting. The European silver was accorded ‘funny money’ status because of the games played with their coinage. American “Trade Dollars” were made exclusively for the China trade – and were basically an imitation of the Libertads weight and fineness.

            Armstrong has his place with gold n silver holders. As does
            One might suppose there to be enough enemies OUTSIDE the gates as to not require internecine squabbles along the watchtower!

            Truth has a funny way of popping out where one is not looking… best to have 360 degree angle of vision!

          • Rogue,

            Yeah… I noticed your remarks on the “Chinese Silver” and “Clown” issues. For your information, I read just about everything Martin published while he was in jail. There was a young woman who took his work and published it on Scribd.

            I believe I stated in my article that Martin got around the issue of Chinese Silver money by saying it was never “Officially coined.” So what. But, that isn’t the reason I suggested that he was a clown. It has to do with an entirely different subject matter.

            Rogue, one of my readers sent me an email saying that Martin wrote some recent blog entries…seemingly in response to my article on Chinese Silver, Peak Oil and climate change. I read what he wrote and wasn’t impressed.

            While Martin might be making BIG BUCKS for some wealthy individuals, his understanding of Peak Oil, the EROI and climate change is typical of those who focus on the POLICITIANS, SOCIALISTS and COMMUNISTS Bogeymen. I don’t have time to waste on that sort of superficial mentality.

            While I might be a “HYPOCRITE” writing about Gold, Silver, Mining and etc while things unravel in world due to peak oil and climate change, at least I am not a CLOWN.

            Either Martin is truly ignorant to the new data coming out on climate change, or he sold his soul to those very politicians in which he despises to his GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARD. Either way, I don’t care.

            Funny how NASA’s CARVE project is no longer releasing the METHANE measurements its taking above the Arctic Ocean this year. Last year they recorded 150 kilometer long methane plumes coming from the Arctic Ocean… this year, MUMS the word. Basically, the Arctic ocean was behaving like champagne in vast stretches of the ocean.

            Furthermore, the 200+ massive fires now plaguing Siberia as temperatures are reaching a staggering 85-90 degrees (totally unheard of), they are recording huge spikes in Methane at 18,000 feet above the area. Looks like the warming of Siberia and the northern latitudes are releasing huge amounts of methane which is also adding FUEL TO THE MASSIVE FIRES.

            Things are getting out of control in the North. The north is heading into a RAPID NON-LINEAR WARMING EVENT… which is destroying the mechanics of the Jet Stream. Thus, really hot air is moving north… further melting permafrost and Ice during the summer, while extreme cold air is forced south during the winter.

            Let’s see if Martin inputs these huge volatile changes in climate temperatures into his Pi-Cycle program.

            Many believe the extreme cold temperatures in the North East this past winter mean we are heading into a NEW ICE AGE. Silly people.

            Of course, Martin won’t speak of this because it goes against the INFINTE GROWTH PARADIGM that he bases his nice little PI-CYCLE charts.


          • Steve,

            one unexpected product of this mini-debate about M.A. is that it would appear to be conclusive that the agenda of his posts is being set right here… now that’s an impressive endorsement of the post postition!

            I don’t get steady access to the net where I am now…(I walk out to a spot in the forest where there is a weak signal) and yesterday was closed down by a hail storm(!) immediately pon closing that last comment –

            but today when I walked out to my “office”… here’s Marty with a global warming piece… and you in the meanswhile having gone on the rampage bout that very topic! And the coins follow up was a dead giveaway somebody reads here!

            Well, when you start settin the pace… that means you’re ahead in the race!

            Likes I said to you some time back… I’m backing the dark horse in this race… and barring any big screwups on his part… I expect him to come in ahead… by a nose! Looks like time for me to return your congrats of couple weeks back Steve…

            nice to see you in the ‘winners circle!’

        • true, we didnt see any of these doomsday predictions but still gold will be stable and value will increase.

          • “but still gold will be stable and value will increase”

            How? Gold has been going DOWN for 3 years. How is that stable? How is that increasing in value? Please explain.

            Also, no one has answered my previous earlier question:

            Or, PMs protect your purchasing power. Excuse me but PMs COLLAPSED by about a third for gold and about 60% for silver…how did that protect your purchasing power?? Please explain.

            How has gold going from $1900/oz to about $1300 protected my purchasing power? If I had left $1900 in the bank I would still have $1900 to spend on items. If I had bought gold for $1900 I would only be able to buy $1300 worth of items so I have LOST $600 worth of purchasing power!

  4. What are the Best Silver Stocks in Noth America / Canada ( Jr. s’ & Above )

    • Jon Loren,

      You ask a question many analysts would charge you a decent penny for. However, I would recommend those silver stocks that are producers and very little in the way of juniors. There aren’t many silver companies that have their mines located in North American and Canada. One in Canada called Alexco Resources, shut down operations at the end of 2013 because it couldn’t make a profit.

      The only companies that have mines located in the U.S. are Hecla and U.S. Gold & Silver. And if I had to choose between the two… I would take Hecla. All the others (such as Coeur) have most of their mines in Mexico and South America. There are a few other smaller companies that have silver mines in the works in the U.S., but one also put its mine in Texas on care & maintenance and the other won’t be a commercial mine for at least 4-5 years.

      I will be putting out a REPORT on the Silver Miners in the future.


  5. Adolf Hitler | July 18, 2014 at 7:02 pm |

    Steve, you doubt whether the brent price could surge above $200? Why?
    Also do you think peak oil could cause the coal price to surge since coal is the only alternative that is abundant at the moment?

    • Mr Hitler. I don’t really know, but its possible that a price spike up to $200 collapses the economy to the point where the price shoots back down. Case in point 2008 where price spiked up to $147, then crash back down to 30something. Demand destruction I think they call it.

      Coal might not be as easy as you think. The highest grades of coal (anthracite) are pretty tapped out is what I’ve heard. you’d need to research this yourself but I don’t think its a given that coal is going to be that easy moving forward.

      Also there’s the issue of heavy machinery, airplanes, 18-wheelers that keeps the merry go round in operation. How is that going to work powered by low grade coal?

    • Adolf,

      Actually, the price of Brent Crude could surge above $200 during a price spike. However, I don’t see a slow move higher towards $200 and staying there. I have seen data that 10 of the past 11 recessions in the U.S. were due to price spikes in the price of oil.

      The world can’t afford HIGH PRICED OIL. Which is why the Major Oil companies are starting to cut back on CAPEX spending because they realize the public won’t pay for higher priced oil. Thus, their margins on declining.

      Yes, the price of coal may rise in the future due to PEAK OIL & GAS. However, I don’t know to what degree.


  6. Thanks for sharing your information, it is appreciated. Seems yesterday I read miners were hi-grading already. However your point as I take it, is it’s becoming more and more costly to mine even less gold than previous. And that’s only going to get worse. It’s too bad the new India Government chose not to lift the tax on gold altogether, things would be a lot different if he had. Indias still importing record amounts. Gold is a bargain, wait till Indias wedding season, and Chinas festivals and New Year. My guess 1,500.

  7. soon you will buy toilet paper with gold and silver…if you do not have any…then you can wipe your ass with whatever fiat you have ….imho

  8. You give us a lot of food for thought. You remind me of Matt Simmons. After reading your articles, I sleep very well at night knowing most of my wealth is in gold and silver. Eventually the manipulation is going to break. I wonder what is the best way to leverage with some speculative money. GLD leaps are extremely cheap but is there any real gold behind it? Comex will be settled with paper. Is there an exchange that you trust that we can buy futures or options on real gold?

    I look at a January 2015 strike 130 GLD option at $3.4 and know that it is mispriced. If gold does go to $2k by the end of the year, $3.4K would get you $70K. That’s better than a 20 bagger. If gold goes up $70 you’re break even. The risk vs. reward seems heavily skewed in your favor. What am I missing? Other than GLD has no real physical gold and will settle in paper.

    A January 2016 Strike price 130 at $7.95 would mean it takes 7.95K to control 1000 ounces. Gold would have to get to about $1,4295 for you to break even. (GLD stock is about $5 less that the price of 1/10 of an ounce of gold) If gold went to $2,000 an ounce by Jan 2016 this would turn $7,950 into $70,000. About a Nine Bagger!

    These options are not priced like the cartel is going to lose control any time soon.

    • Steve,

      I actually think the best way to invest SPECULATIVE money is in the mining shares and not any of the ETF’s. I realize some analysts do not believe in the mining shares, but if we ever did get some kind of nationalization of gold or windfall profit tax… the shares would be a great way to hedge that.

      I doubt we would see confiscation of gold… but I do believe mining shares (PRODUCERS not JUNIORS) are the way to go.


  9. Steve:

    there’s another steve out there, who had been putting up great stuff for FREE, but i think he realized that it wasn’t worth it, as many perfectly financially capable were sponging & lifting it off into their own newsletters & empires. so he hasn’t updated since 2011, but it’s still up and all archived there.
    hope your endeavors don’t make u see the same.

    steve williams.

    go to this sub-page, at URL at bottom of his main page:
    of especial note these charts:

    stock market long cycles inflation-adjusted:
    Clearly predicts a LOW for stocks, Infl-adj, by 2017.6
    Note u must use ShadowStats figures to get the pattern, saying the BLS is BS.
    i saw an article within past 2 weeks that shows $SPX now ca 2000 has to be at 2060 here/soon to be same infl-adjusted as it was at 2000.0 top! so pattern is holding true, & is rock solid.
    G/S Ratio–note steepness of slope (how fast it runs once going)
    ratio still in the 60’s 3 years on, & has at best 3 years to run. but maybe only 1-2. steve even says here in 2011 he expected it to peak (lowest number ratio) ca 2013-2015.

    looking back 2 17.6 cycles ago, the low was 1982.5, after a long inflation burn starting ca 1964. sure enuf, late 1964 was the end of the stocks 17.6-yr infl-adj HIGH, which was hit again 2000.0, 2 of these cycles onward.
    IOW, there has to be some very serious inflation sometime before 2017.6, which is only…..PI years away.

    U could try e-maling steve if u want privately, to get updated info if he has it. his e-mail link is on the main page.

  10. Hi Steve,

    Many thanks for another very good article!
    What are your opinion of Avino Silver. They are labeled as a junior, but now they are actually producing a lot and do profits.

    Best regards Markus

  11. Hi Steve,

    thanks for another great report. I took your 31 gallons per oz of gold stat and did the sums on CO2 produced.

    Based on diesel only each troy oz of gold mined produces 314 kilos of CO2 emissions. I am guessing you could double that again if you take into account the coal/gas burnt to produce the electricity needed to refine and cast each oz of gold.

    • Greg,

      Thanks for stopping by and commenting. Actually, the mining companies also report their emissions. That 31 gallon figure per ounce of gold was for Newmont and their total direct energy emissions were 4.5 million tons of carbon. Coal accounted for 2.2 million tons carbon while diesel was 1.8 million tons.

      So, if we just go by the emissions from diesel, we would have the following:

      1.8 million tons carbon / 5.5 million oz gold = .33 tons of carbon for each oz of gold.
      4.5 million total tons carbon / 5.5 million oz gold = .82 tons of carbon for each oz of gold.

      Newmont is emitting 1/3 of a ton of carbon for each ounce of gold produced from diesel consumption and 0.82 ton of carbon for all direct energy consumption per ounce of gold.

      That’s a lot of carbon for an ounce of gold…aye?


      • Thanks for your reply Steve. I imagine you could double those CO2 figures for a 999.9 pure gold bar after refining and casting are accounted for. So gold really is a store of previously burnt deisel and coal. Although gold’s CO2 footprint must be much smaller in comparison to mining and refining rarer platinum.

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