THE U.S. STOCK MARKET: Highly Inflated Bubble To Super-Charged Tulip Mania

Investors need to be concerned that the U.S. Stock Market is well beyond bubble territory as it has now entered into the final stage of a Super-Charged Tulip Mania.  Not only are stock prices inflated well above anything we have ever seen before, but valuations are also reaching heights that are totally unsustainable.  Unfortunately, these highly inflated share prices and insane valuations seem normal to investors who are suffering from brain damage as years of mainstream propaganda have turned the soft tissue in their skulls to mush.

Also, we are way beyond “Boiling Frogs” now.  Yes, we passed that stage a while back.  Today, the typical U.S. investor has been fried to death.   Investors now resemble a super-crisp chicken-wing with very little meat on it but at least will offer, one hell of a crunch.  Please realize I don’t mean to be harsh about my fellow investor.  However, when I look around and see what 99% of the market is doing, it reminds me of a famous line from the movie Aliens.  The star of the movie, after being found lost in deep space for many years, said the following in a meeting, “Did IQ’s drop sharply while I was away?”

We find out in the rest of the movie that the so-called Mainstream experts were totally wrong about their assessment of the situation.  However, billions of dollars were still spent and many lives lost because high-level individuals infected with stupidity (in the Aliens Movie) still controlled the shots.  No different than today.

Regardless, the U.S. Stock Market has entered into the last stage, which I call the Super-Charged Tulip Mania.  In this stage, it wouldn’t matter if the North Koreans launched a nuclear missile and declared war on the rest of the world, the universe and all Aliens floating around in space.  By God, the Dow Jones Index would look at these as a catalyst to reach the next important psychological level of 25,000 points.  Reaching that new level wouldn’t really be that hard as the Fed would just need to hire a few dozen more trading geeks and provide them with an endless supply of Hot Pockets and Starbucks.  Easy-peasy.

Okay… it’s time to get serious.  Here are a group of charts that show just how insane the markets and valuations have become today.

JP MORGAN & CATERPILLAR:  Exponential Share Price Increase & Insane Valuation

Let’s take a look at two of the companies listed in the Dow Jones Index.  JP Morgan Chase has benefited immensely from the U.S. Government bailout of the garbage assets such as Mortgaged Back Securities after the housing and banking collapse in 2008.  JP Morgan has seen its share price surge four times from $25 in 2012 to over $100 currently:

Furthermore, if an investor was lucky enough to buy a bunch of JP Morgan stock back in 1983 at $2.50 a share, he or she wouldn’t be complaining a bit today.  JP Morgan’s stock price is up a stunning 3,933% over the past 34 years.  If we look this chart, we can see that the share price is now moving up in an exponential trend.  Sadly for JP, all exponential trends never last.  While they may continue higher a bit longer, all will collapse sooner or later.

Another stock that has moved into the exponential territory, is Caterpillar.  After years of falling sales, Caterpillar has emerged out from the ashes to increased sales, profits and with it… a skyrocketing share price:

Not only is Caterpillar’s share price up more than double to $137 since the beginning of 2016, but its current PE Ratio (Price to Earnings) is also at a staggering 95.  Let me tell you, Caterpillar’s PE Ratio of 95 is nearly six times higher than its median PE Ratio over the past 13 years.  Moreover, Caterpillar’s net income Q1-Q3 2007 was higher ($2.5 billion) than Q1-Q3 2017 ($2 billion), but its stock price was only $55 in 2007 versus the $137 today.  So, what gives?

Again… these stock prices may continue higher for a while, but nothing heads up in a straight line for long.

APPLE STOCK:  From Nose-Bleed To Outer-Space Brain Crushing Levels

It’s no surprise that Apple’s share price has reached a level that would make any Las Vegas bookie extremely jealous.  And why shouldn’t it?  What other company has actually brainwashed people into believing that they need to stand in line overnight to purchase the newest I-phone model at $1,000 a pop?  Even though Caterpillar’s share price is up almost 3,000 percent over the past 36 years, who stands in line for a new Caterpillar Earth Moving machine?  Or how about the latest Nike sneaker?

Amazingly, Apple’s stock price is up an earth-shattering 46,648% since it starting trading at $0.40 in 1984:

It is also quite astonishing to see Apple’s stock up more than 15 times at $172 compared to its low set in 2009 at $11.  We must remember what was going on in the first quarter of 2009.  The Dow Jones Index was falling to a gut-wrenching low of $6,600 as CNBC’s Mad Money, Jim Cramer was telling everyone that “There’s no end in sight to how far the market would fall.”  Ole Jim was finally throwing in the towel.  Back then, I also wondered how the hell did the CNBC talking heads could continue to get out of bed, get in front of the camera, and deal with what looked like the end of the world.  What a difference in eight years… ah?

Today at CNBC land, there’s nothing but BIG SMILES and BACK SLAPS.  Everyone is wondering when the Dow Jones will finally reach the 25,000 level.  I gather all it would take to get us there would be the following three incidents; 1) A war with North Korean, 2) A Saudi Arabia Royal Government Coup and, 3) A tidal wave that floods New York City.

THE DOW JONES & EXXONMOBIL:  Watch Out Below!!

The Dow Jones and ExxonMobil are two of my favorite indicators which show that something is seriously wrong in the market.  First, let’s look at ExxonMobil.  While ExxonMobil’s stock isn’t moving up exponentially, as is Caterpillar, JP Morgan, and Apple, its share price is still well above its ratio to the oil price.  If we go back to 2005, when the oil price was trading at the same as it is today, ExxonMobil’s share price was only $35.  However, ExxonMobil’s share price is over $83.  You can see the oil price (BLACK line) versus ExxonMobil’s share price (PURPLE area):

While it’s true that ExxonMobil’s share price has increased as a result of its massive stock-repurchasing program over the past decade, the company also spent over $220 billion in profits to reduce its outstanding shares from 6.3 billion in 2005 to 4.2 billion currently.  Thus, company management thought it was a better decision to spend nearly a quarter of a Trillion Dollars to buy back its stock, rather than to use it for exploring, developing and producing more oil.

For ExxonMobil to finally be able to enjoy a tiny bit of free cash flow this year after it paid its shareholder dividends, it had to gut its capital expenditures by nearly two-thirds since 2012.  By cutting its capital expenditures by $22+ billion, how does it expect to replace its oil reserves going forward?  Good question.  However, there isn’t a good answer as the low oil price has put the U.S. oil industry into a horrible predicament with no real solution.

If Americans understood how dire the situation has become in the domestic oil industry, they wouldn’t be pushing up the value of the Dow Jones to new record highs.  Why?  Without energy, there is no economy or financial assets.  Sure, if we went back to using human and animal labor, there would still be some small valuations.  Maybe the Dow Jones Index would be trading at say 100-200 points, but nowhere near the 23,500 level today.

The Dow Jones Index chart below shows how one index can become a Super-Charged Tulip Mania while the other index can be driven down to bottom-basement cesspool levels:

First, can you imagine owning the Dow Jones Index trading at a measly 850 points in 1981?  It took the Dow nearly a century to reach 850 points in 1981, but it was able to increase 850 points in the past two months.  Amazing things can happen to market prices and valuations when we have massive Central Bank money printing, Mainstream propaganda and societal brain damage.

Second, as the Dow Jones Index reached 23,500 points, the VIX Index (volatility) fell to a new record low of 9.14 (shown at the bottom right-hand side of chart).  Think of these two indexes as an oversized stretched rubber band.  At some point, the rubber band will snap back, and the fun will begin.

THE UNLOVED METALS:  No Bubble Here… Just A Lot Of Frustration

While the first group of charts provides clear evidence of bubbles and tulip manias, this last group reveals quite the opposite.  And out of the three following metal charts, silver is by far, the most unloved.  Yes, that’s correct.  A metal that has been money for more than 2,000 years has performed the worst when we compare it to copper and gold.  Let’s take a look at copper first.

Even though the copper price fell from its high back in 2011, it has surged over 50% in the past two years.  However, if we go back to 1981, the copper price is only up 312% over the 36-year period:

In 1981, the copper price was trading at $0.75, but today with all the massive money printing, the king base metal is only trading at $3.  Now compare the 312% copper price increase versus the Dow Jones Index at 2,548% and Caterpillar at 2,990%.  Thus, an investor was paid much more handsomely to invest in industrial stocks than in copper over this 36-year period.

Now, if you think copper under-performed the stock market, wait until you see gold.  The gold price today is only up 207% since it was traded for $400 in 1981:

I would imagine some precious metals investors would claim that taking the $400 figure (1981) as a baseline would be disingenuous as gold was coming off its high in 1980.  Okay, I will give you that.  But, even if we used the low of $275 reached in 2001, the increase would still only be 350% during that 16-year period.  Thus, gold’s 350% increase from its low in 2001 is still anemic compared to gains made by the Dow Jones Index or the other stocks mentioned above.

Either way, both copper, and gold have severely underperformed the gains experienced in the broader markets.  Sadly, it’s even worse when we look at the last metal in this group.  While copper and gold at least enjoyed triple-digit percentage gains over the past 36 years, the current silver price hasn’t even surpassed double-digit gains.  As of the end of trading last week, the silver price only gained a paltry 99% from its trading level of $8 in 1981:

This chart reveals the frustration felt by many silver investors.  However, there is a good side to this story.  And that is… BUBBLES POP while DEPRESSED ASSETS SURGE.  You have to think about the metals in this fashion.  Gold and silver are behaving like the VIX.  The more the VIX index goes down, the more the stock market rises.  But, when the bubble markets finally pop, then the VIX will shoot back higher (as seen in the RED SPIKES in the DOW chart above), taking the precious metals prices up with it.

This next market crash will not resemble anything similar to what took place during the 2008-2009 U.S. banking and housing market collapse.  When the markets cracked in 2008, EVERYTHING went down together.  Instead this time around, as the markets tank the precious metals will surge to new highs.  We must remember, there really isn’t much in the way of safe assets to move into during the next market crash.  So, as investors flee from bloated STOCKS, BONDS, and REAL ESTATE, to the tiny gold and silver market, fundamentals won’t matter either… LOL.  Yeah… we could see some ridiculous high gold and silver prices as investors finally receive precious metals religion.

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66 Comments on "THE U.S. STOCK MARKET: Highly Inflated Bubble To Super-Charged Tulip Mania"

  1. A quick comment! My eldest daughter often says to me, “dad, the biggest problem is, idiots don’t realise they are idiots!”

    • To various extents all human beings are like that. But the better ones try hard to educate themselves out of it.

      I have a similar saying: “Only an intelligent person knows how dumb they really are.”

  2. I believe the “Idiots” in charge will keep these markets afloat for some time in view of their following commitments.

    Washington’s SFABs Will Teach the Art of War to Foreign Armies:

    “For this reason, last summer the Pentagon would announce its plan to create six Security Force Assistance Brigades (SFAB) which will be employed as “military advisers and instructors” across the world to support the power of pro-US regimes across the world. This process is being carefully supervised by the 39th Chief of Staff for the US Army, General Mark Milley.”

    https://journal-neo.org/2017/11/05/washington-s-sfabs-will-teach-the-art-of-war-to-foreign-armies/

    None of this is GONNA end soon!

  3. Steve… I have posted this one before Exxonmobile; $0.20c in Q2 1970, $96.00 in Q2 2014. An increase of 48,000% in 44 years.

    What else needs to be said!

    • GrahamB,

      Yes, I have seen your charts. Exponential trends can go up for a while. However, when they start to move up in a straight line, watch out… LOL.

      steve

      • Just look at it on a log scale and it will look like a linearly “stable” increase (LOL). As for oil, it seems its price is also rising along with other commodities/base metals. That will put additional pressure on gold and esp. silver miners… and the (remainder of the real) economy which will soon be crushed by cost-push inflation before the final/ultimate collapse… My gut tells me that trouble is getting closer and closer, as the paper roaches glee in euphoria.

      • Steve
        I would have thought a touch over 1000% per year for 44 years was close enough to straight up! One could say it is now HOVERING!!!!

  4. Seems like it never crashes.

    • Andre S,

      Yes, you are correct. However, the market crashed in 1987, 1999, 2008-2009. So, while it seems as this one will go on forever, it won’t. The VIX Index used to be a gauge or indicator. However, it is now part of the market as there is a $2 trillion VIX SHORT TRADE. This is very bad news when the VIX finally goes in the other direction.

      steve

  5. This article just proves Gold & Silver are dud investments.
    Gold & Silver increased by just 99% in 36 years. That’s a compound rate of return of about 2% per year. If you deducted holding costs you probably went backwards.

    • Stuart,

      LOL. Gosh, amazing how much that BRAIN DAMAGE spreads.

      steve

      • Steve, How long have you been pumping Gold & Silver when they givne virtually no gains.
        How long have you been advising against buying stocks and missing out on one of the great bull markets .
        How long have you advised against Bitcoin missing out on gains of 1,000,000%+

        • You really don’t get what Steve is laying out for everyone? Yes, Silver has massively under-performed stocks and that is why it is an amazing investment opportunity right now. It is massively undervalued in comparison to stocks. Forget the past, if you have new money to deploy right now, would be better off buying a massively undervalued asset like Silver and Gold or would be better off jumping into a stock market that is at an all time high. Price is what you pay, value is what you get and you are NOT getting a good value with stocks at current valuations.

          • AK,

            I couldn’t agree with you more. However, Stuart will remain bearish on the metals right up until the point the precious metals prices skyrocket. Then, and only then… will he say “HE KNEW IT ALL ALONG.”

            steve

          • The Gold bubble in 1980 burst around $850. It took about 20 years for Gold to stop falling when it was bottomed around $250. This is a fall of about 70%.
            Silver was much worse losing about 90% around the same period.

            The most recent Gold bubble in 2011 topped out at around $1,900. Gold has only been correcting for about 6 years and might continue to meander around & down for another 15 years like it did correcting from the 1980 bubble.

            When stocks go up they can go up much longer & stronger than anyone believes. Look at what happened in the 1990’s. Sure they will correct but if you ride the market up you still do well even after a big correction.
            Also staying in the market gives massive gains over long time periods just like what Steve quoted for Apple, Caterpillar, etc.
            However surprising to Steve I have about 10% in PM’s and miners to balance my investing. However I don’t subscribe to the hysteria of financial collapse and Gold going to $5,000+. The Hysteria is perpetrated by a few dozen well known doomsayers who have a vested interest in people buying Gold (Peter Schiff is a typical example).

            If Gold doesn’t do much for another 15 years I still have 90% earning good returns but if the stock market corrects there is some insurance.

        • This guy does not understand what has been happening and is giving poor financial advice. Let’s look at some P/E ratios. After the 87 crash the S&P P/E ratio peaked at 50/1, dot com bust at 46.5/1 and the 2008/9 crisis at 123/1. Today we are only at roughly 25/1. With the ratio at this level the S&P and the Dow cannot collapse. Another factor is that since HFT trading all collapses have been caused when there is a very high concentration of retail in markets and they get spooked, sell with prices falling enough to trigger the algos sell orders and off we go. Today retail is under 50% as they have bought into the collapse bullshit. Prices simply cannot fall enough today to trigger the algos.
          For over a year international capital flows have been flowing into dollars and dollar based assets from Europe as the euro, EU, most of its banks and countries are in serious trouble. The only thing propping Europe up is the ECB creating 60 billion euros a month out of thin air and buying all the toxic sovereign and corporate debt. If they stop countries and corporations fail faster. If they keep buying the euro collapses faster. Either way Europe is toast. The largest consulting firm on the planet, Armstrong Economics, has computer models which track both domestic and international capital flows. Back in 2011 the models forecast that the Dow would hit 22,000 then 23,000 then on to 38,000 to 42,000 all do to this capital flight. The models are also forecasting that the worst for the Dow is a normal correction at a maximum 8% before moving higher. The models have also forecast that in 2018 both the Monetary and the Sovereign Debt Crisis hits Europe along with the pension crisis. Europe will not survive in its present form. Their clients are large institutional investors, large financial firm, central banks and governments. All are bracing for 2018. Their institutional clients are all still moving capital out and this will continue. This collapse will accelerate the capital flight out and cause massive strength, move us equities higher and cause across the board commodity weakness including gold and silver. Capital is simply being parked in markets where there are huge pools of liquidity and that is dollars and dollar based assets and this will continue. Just recently currency traders in London have started to monkey hammer the EUR/USD and GBP/USD crosses and go long on the USD/JPY cross indicating that the capital out of Europe is starting to pick up speed again. This is again creating additional dollar strength.
          Folks this is reality and all else in bullshit!

          • jj,

            Ah… I see. Quoting Armstrong… ah? While Armstrong has made some interesting forecasts, the guy doesn’t believe in PEAK OIL. I gather he believes the world has a creamy nougat center of oil.

            So yes… Armstrong can make all sorts of forecasts because he believes in the ENERGY TOOTH FAIRY.

            steve

          • Harryflashmanhigson | November 7, 2017 at 7:04 pm |

            Did you really just say, to this audience and at this stage in the cycle, ‘This time is different’?

          • Harryflashmanhigson,

            I believe that is exactly what Mr. JJ was saying. I gather he didn’t read that article on the $2 trillion VIX INDEX SHORT TRADE… LOL.

            steve

          • International capital flows : but how explained that DAX is also at an all time high with credit spreads at the lowest levels of all the capitalism era (same for Japan) ?
            Arsmtong has been right for wrong reasons : “lucky” man…

        • Legendary investors have been persistently long stocks since 2009, but for dumb small investors they preach the value of PMs

          • Ed,

            You said, “Only Dumb small investors preach precious metals”… really? That’s a new one.

            Billionaire Gold & Silver Investor Eric Sprott = dumb small investor?
            Billionaire Gold & Silver Investor Hugo Salinas Price = dumb small investor?
            Billionaire Gold Investor David Einhorn = dumb small investor?
            Billionaire Gold Investor Ray Dalio = dumb small investor?
            Billionaire Gold Investor Stanley Druckenmiller = dumb small investor?

            Most people will go down with the U.S.S STOCK MARKET TITANIC. I don’t have a problem with someone who wants to put all their money in the GREATEST PONZI SCHEME in history and is DAMN PROUD to do it. However, I don’t want to hear any BELLY-ACHING when the markets crash.

            steve

  6. YES!!! analyzist of a true bubble, good job Steve.
    A word of caution for those squeezing last drop from stockmkt, PM’s will be “no offer” before the ordinary man can get a position.

    • PM’s are near the cost of current production (fueled by oil not being replaced with exploration). You can buy a retail product from a very limited ultimate supply for the same price a producer makes it for and you aren’t all-in? Peak wheat is also a thing. Brain damage is a nice phrase.

  7. Pretty amazing what can happen when Central Banks use newly created digital money to buy equities, eh? A self perpetuating joy ride with free money. But even with helicopter money, sooner or later, gravity (reason) prevails. Enjoy the ride people, but pare down your exposure.

  8. Hi Steve,

    Just have a look for example at the argentian or venezuelan stockmarket and you can
    clearly see money printing really elevate stockmarkets. And we need to realise it can go much higher with the electronic printing press on full speed. Yes this sucker is going down only when?

  9. Michael Kohlhaas | November 6, 2017 at 6:24 pm | Reply

    “Once again, this is rumor control. Here are the facts.” Andy Hoffman is a fucking weasel! Fuck you, Andy!

    We better hope the stock markets will go up forever and relentlessly. If not the world will turn into a garbage can when the tide turns. 2008/2009 will seem like a family picnic in Hyde Park on a Sunday afternoon.

  10. Good work, great analysis I should say…thanks.

  11. a super-crisp chicken-wing with very little meat on it…That’s hysterical, Steve!!!! But you are so right! Great work as usual…!

  12. These two data points might not be perfectly connected or even correlated but in 1981 the DOW was 850 and national debt was $1 trillion. 35 years later the DOW is up 2,600%. National debt is up 1900%. At this rate national debt will be $40 trillion in 10 years. DOW? Maybe $50,000 Maybe not

    • AGXIIK,

      Yes, I have seen that DEBT-DOW JONES correlation. Debt is propping up the markets. I believe there was an article showing how the Western Countries Debt levels were magically declining a bit over the past few years. However, there is now $13 trillion worth of FX and Currency Swaps that are not included in the debt figures, but they should. So, our public debt is actually much higher when we include these currency swaps, etc.

      steve

  13. 36 years is a long time. It takes a lot of courage and conviction to buy silver as an investment with that track record. It’s good to see articles like this one. It reminds me that we’re scraping along the bottom and there isn’t much downside risk. I like silver a lot and it’s become one of my core holding over the last 7 years. A holding I continue to grow. Thanks to Steve, I know that we are seeing declining mine output, declining EROI in the oil market, declining government Stockpiles, dramatic mining declines from major producers like Mexico and Chile, declining recycled metal coming back into the market. Increasing silver importation into the U.S.
    The fundamentals are compelling. The question is when do we see Silver rise from the Earth like a vengeful spirit? I had hoped we’d get a few more years of stagnant prices. In my mind, You can’t accumulate enough inter-generational wealth. When it’s over, I’ll lament how much more I should have stacked. I think accumulating Silver is a game changer, especially when the world has less energy at its disposal. I read an article posted by peak prosperity “running out of room”. The article went into Rio Tinto’s latest efforts to mine copper 7000 feet below the surface. It seems to me we are hitting serious resource and energy limits. We see a lot of military intervention to get cheap oil and it seems the MIC hasn’t been as successful as of late. Judging by what we read in the news, it looks like the resource wars are just getting warmed up. What happens next is anyone’s guess, but I suspect silver is starting its countdown to unobtainable and A lot of people are going to miss it.

  14. “…the silver price had only gained a paltry 99% from its trading level of $8 in 1981.”
    Steve, can I play devils advocate? Haven’t (we) silver bugs believed since 1981 that silver was undervalued and ready to make an explosive move upward? Didn’t we believe when we were told that silver was rare and that we were no longer going to use it in our coinage that the value would rise dramatically after 1964? Actually, in 1913 silver was $0.58 an ounce. So let’s plot these too!
    1913 = $0.58 per ounce
    1964 = $1.29 per ounce
    1981 = $8.00 per ounce
    2017 = $17.22 per ounce (last night at 10:40)
    So, given this data for the last hundred plus years …What makes more sense…That silver will be worth a hundred dollars or even a thousand dollars an ounce 20 years from now, or that it will be worth about $34.00. What would the graph look like given these two choices. If silver did rise to these explosive high numbers wouldn’t that be just as big of a parabolic graph as stated above?

    • If nothing changes in the next twenty years the Dow will have gone into the stratosphere, our debt will be approaching a quadrillion dollars and silver will be at $34?? I don’t think so. But, if the system can sustain exponential debt growth for a while longer and they are not running out of physical metal and can continue to manipulate the paper price of silver, silver will very likely continue to under perform.
      So the real question is how much longer can they maintain the insanity. Nobody really knows, all we know is that silver is significantly undervalued compared to all the paper assets out there. If you MUST participate in that because you feel like you are missing out, then by all means do so, but have a core position in physical gold and silver that you increase over time the longer this insanity goes on. One day you will wish that you had accumulated more but you are still going to be light years ahead of anyone who put their faith exclusively in fraudulent paper markets.

  15. You know when is the best time to buy an asset, especially one that isn’t anyone else’s liability (debt obligation, unlike stocks, bonds, options, mortgages etc…)?

    – When no one wants it!

    We probably have a few years left to buy gold and silver. According to Jim Reid (credit analyst of Deutsche Bank), in late 2018 we will see for the first time a flattening of world population growth and in 2019, for the first time since WW2, there will be slightly fewer young people in the world than the year before, a trend that is likely to continue into the century due to the falling availability of resources and energy.

    This means the constant population growth that has fueled world prosperity and debt accumulation for the past 75 years is about to come to an end. Give the markets another couple of years to come to this realization, and the Greatest Depression will begin, with no end in sight. Banks, companies and small business will look at the world and think that next year, there will be slightly fewer customers than before, and the year after that, and so on. Not only that, but everyone will have accumulated debt up to their eyeballs. When that happens, all this fake value, all this debt value, will flood out of the voodoo asset classes and jump into precious metals (and possibly crypto-currencies).

    You should do an article about this Steve. Several other small or outside analysts have started talking about this: https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.fr/2017/11/the-big-reversal-inflation-and-higher.html

  16. Steve is too caught up in the economics. This isn’t economics anymore. If the elite control the market it’s about geopolitics. It’s about population control. It’s about hard and soft diplomacy to unlock new funds to throw on the fire.

    All stored energy will be sucked from the host first. New wars, new anything to keep it all going. We could do this for a lot longer, trust me.

    The war in the Middle east is a classic example of what the elite will do. They initiated 9/11, they invaded the middle East and presto – petro dollar for another 16 years +.

    Stop looking at the figures. Learn to see like the people that pull the strings.

    There is always a new solution. Right now we have another war starting up and presto, oil price goes up.

    There are still plenty of savings to steal. Gold to rob. Countries and people to plunder.

    • Very true, but what makes you think the elite are still in control? It looks to me like their global domination scheme is showing some serious cracks. I am amazed by how much corruption is being exposed. People around the world are waking up and it is only a matter of time until their evil agenda gets fully exposed. Personally I think “They” are on the run and trying to cover their tracks. The next couple of years will be interesting. If nothing changes then I would agree that you are likely correct.

    • There is going to be a shortage of food (at first “good” food, then edible food) as industrial farming inputs become difficult. Silver will be acceptable to farmers in trade for food. You will live because you can pay for food. Other people will sell everything at 99+% off to get food while they can, then starve. A farmer will only want a limited number of fur coats and pianos in trade for a few pounds of pork, but he will always be able to find a spot underground for your gold-silver-palladium-platinum so you can eat.

  17. Hi Steve,

    to bad you forget to mention the two sodomists of them all..
    1 . amazon, who`s PE ratio is belive it or not 265!! and apparently all amozon stocks in the world are worth more than all the gold in the world
    2. Tesla, who`s PE is actually negative -35 and the share is worth 300!?!?! cmon 🙂

  18. Well, precious metals are heavily manipulated by the bank cartels, so this will continue until COMEX ends trading them. The Banksters will keep gold and silver just enough that the miners will not go bankrupt, not too low and not too high. In order to make money in precious metals, you will need to time the market, which is hard, but good return if you are disciplined enough to buy when it is way oversold and sell when it is overbought. I think, The best investments is not too be very pessimistic, but cautious; and thus it is wise to diversify and hedge, but I would not put everything in precious metals. However, sorry Steve, but I have an impression that markets are going to continue to bull higher; and if we have a correction, it will be max 15% down and back to the races lol.

  19. Chris Martenson recently went to Munich Germany for an Energy Conference. According to Chris the place was packed and they were discussing “Alternative Energy Sources” to power tomorrows economies. As Chris mentioned there.in lies the rub. They found that none of the alternative energy sources are capable of replacing “OIL”, which is what people like Gail Tverberg, Chris Martenson and Steve have been saying for years.

  20. Good stuff as always Steve. The end is near!

  21. I have decided that I’m going to be dead before I see any sanity in the world again.

    I cannot tell you the depth of disgust I have for the world today, for how this has all played out. Every new iteration brings more insanity. The market will crash, they will flood it with money, then it will make new highs 8 years from now in 2025. Then it will crash and make new highs again in 2033, etc. etc. I honestly think we have three full cycles to go until the system finally dies of exhaustion in the late 2030s.

    • dolph,

      In a small way, I share your frustration of the world and the nitwit thinking. However, I do not see this MARKET FACADE lasting until the late 2030’s. As I have stated many times, the crash will take place much earlier due to the disintegration of the U.S. and Global Oil Industry. So no, I don’t see the market continuing after a few years of possible hyperinflation.

      I see U.S. oil production down by at least 50% by 2025… maybe even more. This will not be good for our trade deficit or public debt.

      steve

      • Funny you should mention U.S. oil production declining by 50% by 2025. We won’t be the only ones suffering energy declines. Norway looks like they’re going to be hitting the wall too. from the Zerohedge article “But after 2025, production and activity are expected to significantly drop off unless there are new discoveries, according to oil major Statoil.”

        http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-06/norways-oil-sector-faces-existential-crisis

        • Petedivine,

          Great article. Couldn’t agree with you more. After the significant rise and fall in the price of oil, due to massive central bank printing and zero interest rates, no one is making any money producing oil at $50. However, most oil companies were making nice profits at $50 oil in 2005. Thus, the Thermodynamic Oil Collapse is taking place right in front of our eyes.

          Lastly, very few people understand what is taking place in Saudi Arabia. While the U.S. frackers drill down deeper and increase their horizontal laterals to access more oil, the Saudis are doing the exact opposite. Why? Because, the Saudis have been flooding their oil fields with millions of barrels of salt water every day for decades. Thus, due to the nature of oil and water, oil floats to the top. So, the oil is rising to the top of the Saudi’s oil fields. As the oil rises above the level of the Saudi’s horizontal oil well, and the water cut becomes way too high, they plug in that well and drill another one higher up. How long before they reach the ground surface… LOL??

          Individuals who enjoy regurgitating nonsense from the Mainstream media have no CLUE about what is really going on in the U.S. and Global Oil Industry. Thus, they continue to assume business, as usual, will continue indefinitely.

          steve

          • lastmanstanding | November 9, 2017 at 8:21 am |

            As long as oil seems plentiful and relatively cheap, the masses will remain content as they are “entitled” to their immediate, unlimited, world-wide mobility.

            You and many of us here know that soon this will end and enormous butt hurt will ensue…then massive mortality.

            Everywhere…except in the good ole USA. 😉

  22. The stock market will invariably correct about 10% maybe slightly more. Then it will simply
    rise again over time. To preach a collapse is insane. The entire USA would be a war zone in
    a few weeks. A Ferguson in every town. You have got to get a hold on yourself. A currency
    devaluation I can see. Rising inflation to pay off the national debt, but a collapse means no
    more USA. What does the average American do then? Do they wrestle me for my silver?

    • Joe Lindell,

      I was patiently awaiting you much-anticipated comment. Of course, you did not let me down by saying something different. Glad to see that you write anything new. Good for you ole chap… LOL.

      steve

    • DisappearingCulture | November 9, 2017 at 5:49 am | Reply

      Joe,

      Most widely acknowledged market experts will say [as they have for many, many decades] that a 10% market correction is a healthy cleansing. In fact that’s what they will say when the next one comes [if it pauses or slows down after 10% attrition]. But the truth is now even a sustained [like for 6 months] 10% decline will crash pension funds & other institutional investments. That will bring about more MASSIVE QE, the ONLY thing that could stop a 10% correction from triggering a massive collapse like over 50%.

      You are right about being in a riot zone when the next big recession/depression comes.

  23. For what reasons commodities should rise over time until real supply issues like easy oil would happen. I guess that is the reason why commodities underperformed these last decades.

  24. DisappearingCulture | November 7, 2017 at 8:28 am | Reply

    Just came across this article by Stuart Doherty. It is an interesting compilation of facts, explanations, inferences, opinion, etc.

    It’s worth a read to challenge one’s beliefs and biases, etc.

    http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/electronic-gold-the-deep-states-corrupt-threat-to-human-prosperity-and-freedom/

  25. Would be nice if the perpetual “its coming” would turn into something tangible. Thank my brain for buying Tesla at the ipo, otherwise my pm/miners would kill any gain of the rest of the portfolio. Speaking of brain dead, I’ll make 2 calls right now. 1 the pm “no offer” notion is truly moronic- will never happen. 2 Dr Arnaux’s prediction of oil being below $20 “by 2020” is also ludicrous. Won’t even go below $40 by then, or 20 years after. The Dow is going much higher, and will not have a 50% correction in the next 20 years, if ever. I’d gladly eat crow if these are wrong, but I doubt it.
    It’s one thing to theorize about a collapse , but don’t be dumb with your $, people. The PM industry are just about sales, just like Wall Street.

    • Emil,

      Okay… I will remember you “2 CALLS.” I gather you really have no idea just how bad the situation has become in the U.S. Oil Industry. I also would bet that you didn’t read my article where I mentioned that an EX-SENIOR member at one of the large U.S. Shale Oil companies stated that they have been COOKING THEIR BOOKS for more than two years now.

      Yes… the insanity will continue and people will also believe this will last for decades and centuries longer.

      GOD HATH A SENSE OF HUMOR….

      steve

      • Yes God has a sense of humor and He also has a plan.
        Been reading Jonathan Cahn’s new book “The Paradigm” very interesting, recommend for all.
        King Ahab in power 22 yrs, Bill Clinton in power 22 yrs, and gets deeper.

    • Johny Comelately | November 7, 2017 at 1:43 pm | Reply

      Looks like Steve will be cooking you a crow stew and pigeon pot pie. LOL.

  26. Hyperinflation?

    Those stock charts look suspiciously like a hyperinflation track.
    Could we be seeing hyperinflation in its early stages here?
    Remember in Zimbabwe, literally everyone who was in their stock market was a billionaire!
    The central banks will not accept, nor allow a serious stock market rout. Even if it means super-sonic printing until the currency is destroyed. At which time the amount of ALL debt becomes moot, as its value is valueless! A win/win scenario for the CB’s and for the debtor nations. Not so much for those who are left holding the worthless paper. Got gold?

  27. U.S. DEBT;20 trillon,unfunded debts estimated at 80 t0 100 trillon. If you could send one(1) dollar every second it would take approx.134 years to spend!!! CRASH COMING I`am putting my monies in silver/gold before to disaster hits.

  28. »So, as investors flee from bloated STOCKS, BONDS, and REAL ESTATE, to the tiny gold and silver market, fundamentals won’t matter either… LOL.«

    And don’t forget these bitcoin illusionists with their (self-proclaimed) “intrinsic value” when they realize that they better go with the real stuff. In my opinion they will make up the “hyper push” to PM’s value.

    • Could be but consider this: those holding PM’s have shown their preference for physical over paper or cyber by there buying actions.
      Why would they suddenly change and be willing to sell PM’s for either?

      Sure there is small amount of PM’s in the wholesale mkt for sale at a price, but that can be taken off the table quickly, for a large no. of population to be able to establish a position in PM’s present holders would have to be willing to sell.

      Steve, figures on the volume of PM’s in pipeline readily available would be interesting.

      • »Why would they suddenly change and be willing to sell PM’s for either?«

        When they consider that the story ends. The world is changing quick, the IT business is changing much quicker: bitcoin is just IT, nothing more. Besides that, structural complexity should be considered: Bitcoin essentially needs access hardware, an ISP, network infrastructure (cables, network hardware), network supernodes (DNS, IXP, routers), exchange (service provider), government allowance (legal system, law), energy on each function level and at least one idiot, who is fatuous at the same niveau. If something in this chain disfunctions, everything halts. PM’s need nothing of that, nor does it need energy for any transfer.

        In the end, gravity [here: reality] wins. Now think about what Bitcoin is against PM’s.

        regards

      • …to continue my remarks according to “When they consider that the story ends.”:

        Bitcoin has a systemic implemented timeline in the ideology by its users (greed): they already have crossed the rubicon. The higher they value one of the currency unit, the less it is affordable for any buyer. So in the end, the crypto community isolates itself and no new users can come in, they will even more tend to leave (to feather one’s own nest): liquidity is drying out and exchange speed slows down dramatically the higher they go.

        The end of the story will be that everyone else will have enough of that (thanks and goodby).

        regards

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