Analyzing the Mainstream Analysts: Are SLV Holdings Really Plummeting?

(By Jeff Clark – GoldSilver)

It was a headline designed for shock value. The title screamed, Investors Dumping SLV at Fastest Pace in 6 Years!

The headline came from Bloomberg, the epitome of “mainstream” news in my opinion. The article reported that investors were “dumping” holdings in SLV, the largest silver exchange-traded fund. They claimed the silver market had been “hit by a gale force, spurring an exit from ETFs backed by the metal.”

As you might guess, we do a lot of reading around here. And this was the first I’d heard of a “mass exodus” from SLV. Did I somehow miss this development?

It’s important because if holdings in SLV were really cratering, it might be a sign that the market—or at least these types of investors—had changed their mind about silver. You might know that holdings in silver-backed ETFs have been stubbornly high for years, refusing to bow to any price pressures. During the crash of 2008, for example, holdings rose sharply in spite of the price falling off a cliff. Same thing happened in 2013 when the price cratered… holdings never really declined all that much, in spite of GLD shares dropping hard.

Given that, you might understand why I perked up upon seeing their chart.

Looks ominous. I needed to check it out…

Fun with Facts

The above chart is correct. There have been outflows from SLV.

But the message the journalists portray is incorrect. We went directly to the SLV site and created a chart of the fund’s holdings. I expected to see a big drop over the past few months. Instead, I saw this.

Holdings have barely moved. They’re still higher than in 2009… in 2011… and in 2013. The “mass exodus” is barely noticeable on a long-term chart.

Okay, so maybe there’s been a big drop in the number of shares. Yeah, that’s probably it…

The number of shares has dipped, but they remain higher than they were 18 months ago. If investors were selling their SLV shares in droves, it’d show up here. It doesn’t.

The idea that investors are exiting the silver industry is simply not accurate. Silver has a message for anyone who thinks so: “The reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated.”

In fact, if there is any message about silver right now, it’d probably be this:

The ratio of the silver price to the S&P 500 hasn’t been this low in over a decade. Clearly, silver is undervalued compared to common stocks. This chart screams “buying opportunity!” If you own common stocks and feel the pressure to lighten up, silver is one of the deepest value assets you can buy right now. Someday the ratio in that chart will look just the opposite, where silver is much higher and stocks are much lower.

And of course, you can’t examine the silver market without looking at China. Here’s what was reported only a few days after that Bloomberg article:

  • “China has been importing noticeably more silver for several months. According to data from the customs authorities, August silver imports soared by 68% year-on-year to 422 tons. Silver imports were already 45% or 860 tons above the year-on-year level in the first eight months of the year.”

The simple fact is, there is no “exodus” from SLV. Investors aren’t dumping the fund, nor silver itself. Demand for coins in North America remains subdued, but that’ll change abruptly once stocks, real estate, and other overpriced assets reverse. Nothing lasts forever, and once they start to fall, investors will turn back to precious metals in droves.

Mike and I and everyone else at GoldSilver are preparing for a major reversal back into gold and silver. We continue to accumulate, while prices are low.

You can check out the original article here: Analyzing the Mainstream Analysts: Are SLV Holdings Really Plummeting?


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18 Comments on "Analyzing the Mainstream Analysts: Are SLV Holdings Really Plummeting?"

    The writing is on the WALL – what you do with it is your problem . . .

  2. SLV is the banksters silver stack. If investors “dump” SLV, the bankers will buy their shares, if the banksters need phyzz they exchange them for phyzz, NOT investors. This is clearly seen by the dump/outflows in the peak year 2011. I would go out and make the claim that as long as SLV et al. are out there with significant holdings, the suppression game of the bankers will or rather can continue. If the phyzz silver market is really tight then the current outflows may actually be a good sign… Either way, IMHO SLV is a nothing burger for retail and essential for the banksters.

  3. A backed iou is still a iou.

  4. Michael Kohlhaas | November 3, 2017 at 6:52 pm |

    Fuck Bloomberg!
    _I am the revenge!_

  5. In silver, always do the opposite of what the experts say and what the mainstream does and you will make good money.

  6. OutLookingIn | November 3, 2017 at 8:29 pm |

    How to start a stampede.

    Instill fear. Fear of losing your wealth. Stampede the dumb money into selling. How?
    Create a selling scenario, by spreading a false story line of widespread liquidation.
    An old and widely used tactic on the street. People still fall for it.

  7. It is in the interest of big business for silver to be cheap. Only buy silver as a hedge against currency. If you plan to make money from it learn to trade futures where you can profit in both directions. Buying and holding physical only makes people like Mike Maloney rich. Not anyone else. And that isn’t speculation it is a fact.

  8. It is nor a sign of wisdom to claim that PMs will go up. Everybody knows it. The real wisdom id to provide the timing. Will it happen in 1, 2 or 3 years?

  9. I would like to add, in addition to the comments above, that as long as bankers can create paper silver and gold, they can suppress price to the cost of production.

    What this means: SLV, or any other paper entity, actually helps the bankers. Rendering the media’s claim meaningless or even the opposite of reality.

    What is happening is that investors stay in the paper game, because they just can’t stand to liquidate and take the loss. But the loss is there nonetheless, and will be realized eventually when they sell to another paper sucker. The sign that we are reaching the end is, in fact, if holdings of all silver and gold paper decline. But that will never happen, since people don’t want the actual metal. And good for them! As we are finding out, metal is useless, just sitting there. It gains you absolutely nothing but heartache.

    The banks have been perfecting this game for hundreds of years, do you actually think you stand a chance against them? And no, the United States is not interested in constitutional money or balancing the budget or any of that nonsense. It needs the petrodollar for empire, and it needs to allow the banks to continue the PM suppression.

    No chance, guys, no chance. Enjoy your live, live life before you are dead and gone forever.

    • petrodollar is near its end, just maybe the suppression of pm will be lifted once this happens, just maybe.

    • We are re-living the fun that was Berlin in 1919-1926. It might last longer this time, but the results at the end are almost guaranteed. Small denomination silver coin will be very useful to continue individual eating. Pre-1965 silver dimes (90% silver) that are about $1.25 each now, will be food for a day for a man, or more, value. Inflation or deflation can affect trust and supply, but you can’t fake a gold or silver coin. In a crisis, there won’t be good change, so having a multiple of small-value coins will get you a better deal than a large-value single coin. Will an ounce round of .999 silver sell for 10 dimes (71.5% of an ounce)? How many ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold? Fewer than 75, I bet.

  10. A run on SLV is just more propaganda to try and squeeze out the last of weak hands, speculators and punters and relieve them of any physical holdings or ‘claims’ on physical. For any real holder of physical metal it is not about speculation, rather it is protection against the inevitable collapse of the fiat system. Whereas in days past you had to mainly contend with individual countries and their related fiat it is now globally intertwined. What is often overlooked in any fiat system is that all currency is based upon it’s relative value to commodities or resource extraction and while these may be temporarily masked by external interventions (QE, Fractional reserves, outright monetization) they will always mean revert. So while the euphoria of a hyper-inflating stock, bond and real estate bubble fed by central bank issued fiat continues on it’s end game it is important to remember it is all an illusion. The reality is that we all live in the physical world and only those that own physical property will survive the coming inevitable catastrophe, whether it be the collapse of your particular fiat structure or when the entire global system freezes up and only transactions based on the ownership physical commodities then become the basis of payment and trade. The question you have to ask yourself is do I then want to own a claim on a physical commodity or the real thing and if that is the case do I want to own an ounce of gold or silver or a barrel of oil or a bushel of wheat. I choose physical ownership of silver.

    How about you?

    • Buckets of whole wheat are a good hedge on global food shortage/big price changes. It’s not heavy-duty portable wealth like gold coin, but you can eat it directly.

      Ammo cans full of the kind of ammo you shoot up to about a half-ton (more?) would have been a big winner from 1997 to present or 2007 to present. 1500 rounds of .22lr fits in an M-60 ammo can in original cartons (loose rimfire ammo bothers me, so I get Federal 510 packed in 50’s x 10 x 10 in case of 5K, then repack in metal cans).
      How much is a lifetime supply of ammo? That depends….

      Diesel fuel can be stored in a tank ostensibly to fuel your home furnace. 600 gallons is a lot of BTU’s if you are careful. Currently, 2oz gold to fill the tank. A Kubota EL300 horizontal Diesel engine can make 2000+W an hour for an 8 hour shift on one gallon of fuel, which will run a thrifty household lighting/refer/charging system for years on that tank.

      Silver is probably the most undervalued commodity/metal.

  11. Steve,
    are you endorsing owing SLV (ETF, not the metal per se)? Any concerns with actual backing by the bullion?

    • Daniel,

      No, I would not endorse owning the SLV as a silver investment for the long term. Rather, I believe you need to own the actual metal in one’s hand or at some secure vault outside the banking industry. If someone wants to trade the SLV for short-term gains (or losses..LOL), then I don’t see a problem with playing with the SLV for that use.


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