The Collapse Of The U.S. Retirement Market & Epic Rise In The Price Of Gold

The once great U.S. Empire is now in big trouble.  Cracks are beginning to appear in the once great American Dream as the country’s economic and financial systems are on the verge of an epic collapse.  Unfortunately, its citizens will be the last to know as they have totally  lost the ability to distinguish between “Illusionary” and “Real” wealth.

With the recent take-down in the price of gold, many precious metals investors have become worried once again that they may have invested in a DEADBEAT ASSET.  And of course analysts from member banks are now too eager to present charts showing the price of gold only has one way to go… much lower. 

Sometimes I wonder how these bank analysts sleep at night realizing they sacrificed their profession in order to dish out worthless propaganda.  Well, maybe they just don’t have an option or they will turn out like the poor 30,000 slobs that are going to be laid off at Barclays over the next two years.

Now, if we estimate the average salary of a Barclays employee (found here) of $70,000 a year and multiply it by 30,000 workers, the CEO will have an extra $2.1 billion to pass around to upper management as bonuses.  Nothing like living off the fat of the people.    Let this be a warning….. the end of Fiat Monetary Finance is coming.  Times are ah-changing.

The Great U.S. Retirement Ponzi Market

Getting back to the largest Ponzi Scheme in history, let me present you with the Great U.S. Retirement Market:

U.S. Retirement Market 1974-2014

If we look closely at the chart, we will notice three distinct upward trends.  First, there was the continued increase from 1974 until 1999 (tech bubble collapse & 9/11 attack).  Second, the next upward trend from 2002 to 2007 (the collapse of the U.S. Investment Banking and Housing Market).  Third, the current trend from 2008 to present.

As you see, each successive upward trend increased at a much steeper rate.  According to the ICI – Investment Company Institute, the total U.S. Retirement Market (2014) is valued at $24.5 trillion compared to $991 billion in 1980.  So in 35 years, the U.S. Retirement Market increased a whopping 2372%.  Now, either Americans are really smart, or unwittingly foolish.

You will notice in the chart I have posted the high price of gold in 1980 at $850 compared to the current price of $1,100.   When gold traded at a high of $850 (average of $612 for the year) in 1980, Americans held a total of $991 billion in retirement assets.  However, the price of gold is now trading at $1,100 while the total U.S. Retirement Market is valued at $24.5 trillion ($24.9 trillion Q1 2015).

This can be seen more easily in the chart below:

Total U.S. Retirement Market vs Gold Price new

Here we can see which asset class increased the most in value.  If I was included in the 95-98% of Americans invested in the $24.5 trillion U.S. Retirement Market, I would most certainly feel like I was apart of the winning team.  Unfortunately, it’s been a bit rough being a precious metals investor as the prices continue to go in the opposite direction we’d like.

But, don’t be too hard on yourself as gold and silver are the real HIGH-QUALITY ASSETS to own , not hyper-inflated Ponzi Schemes.  Why?  Well, it all comes down to energy.  Before you roll your eyes at those six letters E-N-E-R-G-Y, maybe you might pay a little more attention now that precious metal sentiment is in the cesspool.

Falling U.S. Energy Consumption:  Not Supportive Of Lofty Retirement Asset Values

Let’s take a look at total U.S. energy consumption since 1949.  Basically, total U.S. energy consumption (in Quadrillion Btu’s — that’s a heck of a lot of energy), grew steadily from 1949 to 1979.  Then after the nasty recession (1980-1983), energy consumption picked up again increasing from 76 Quad Btu’s in 1984 to a peak of 101 Quad Btu’s in 2007:

Total U.S. Energy Consumpiton

However, total U.S. energy consumption fell from a peak of 101 Quad Btu’s in 2007 to 98 Quad Btu’s in 2014, while the total U.S. Retirement Market grew from $18 trillion to $24.5 trillion.  How did the U.S. Retirement Market grow $6.5 trillion while its total energy consumption declined? 

Anyone who understands economics, realizes that growth is predicated upon an increased energy supply.  How can we have a larger economy (and higher valued retirement assets) if total energy consumption falls?  Gail Tverberg  of Our Finite World put together this chart showing the relationship between world oil production growth and global GDP growth.

World Oil Supply & GDP Growth

You don’t have to be too clever to figure out that as the (four-year) percentage rate growth of world oil supply declined, so did the growth of global (and listed countries) GDP.  Thus, in order for the U.S. Retirement Market to grow on the back of falling energy consumption, the wizards at the Fed and U.S. Treasury had to manufacture GDP growth by printing money and increasing debt. 

Because the Fed realizes most Americans don’t understand the difference between debts and assets, they were able to keep them investing in the Greatest Ponzi Scheme in history.  We must remember, paper assets such as retirement accounts are CLAIMS ON FUTURE ENERGY CONSUMPTION.  Energy has to be burned to create economic activity to allow retirement accounts to be paid back or settled.

Furthermore, you need a GROWING ENERGY SUPPLY in order to pay back an even higher valued U.S. Retirement Market.  Now, I would imagine there isn’t one Wall Street analyst that will provide this sort of logic to the investing public.  Instead, we will continue to see more bearish price forecasts for gold by the bank and brokerage analysts as they continue to pump up the already hyper-inflated U.S. Retirement Market.

The Peak Of U.S. Shale Oil Production Has Come & Gone

For all those Americans who continue to believe the U.S. will still become energy independent, recently released data just shot that illusion dead once and for-all.  According to the EIA’s July Productivity Report, U.S. shale oil production peaked in March this year:

Bakken Peak

Eagle Ford Peaked

As we can see, the two largest shale oil fields (Bakken & Eagle Ford) have already peaked and declined.  Now, the data from the EIA’s Productivity Reports are estimates, but they do provide a good snapshot of the current situation.  Moreover, oil production data released by North Dakota and Texas show the peak may have occurred in December of 2014. 

Either way, the Great U.S. Shale Oil Bonanza is heading in one direction… DOWN.

That being said, I have seen estimates that U.S. domestic oil production may decline 33% by 2020 and up to 60-70% by 2025.  Do you really think the U.S. Retirement Market (currently valued at $24.9 trillion – Q1 2015) will survive as U.S. domestic oil production collapses within 5-10 years?

The U.S. Empire is on its last legs.  At some point, we will not be able to trade worthless Fiat Dollars for our oil imports.  Falling domestic oil production, on top of falling oil imports will wreak havoc on the U.S. Economy and most paper and physical assets.  Thus, the collapse of the U.S. Retirement Market will cause an epic surge in the price of gold.

This is why it is best to see the WRITING ON THE WALL and invest in gold and silver before its impossible to acquire the metal. 

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114 Comments on "The Collapse Of The U.S. Retirement Market & Epic Rise In The Price Of Gold"

  1. Sometimes I wonder how these bank analysts sleep at night realizing they sacrificed their profession in order to dish out worthless propaganda :

    Simple : for money and so women…

    • Hahaha with other words they fu.. at night while we, the poor Gold and Silver stackers can’t get sleep due to our ongoing losses

      • canadian dirtlump | July 21, 2015 at 9:28 am | Reply

        I can’t speak for anyone else but I’ve been dollar cost averaging for years and eagerly await the day that the world gets the collapse it deserves.

        I’m like a kid waking up hoping it’s christmas morning every morning.

        The only thing I feel bad for is the vast majority of gum chewing mongoloids who will go down in flames.

        Looking at the Pension shortfalls alone shows that retirement is a mirage for most.

        • In all due respect, I have been watching the US dollar that was supposed to die, according to Schiff, Sprott, Turk, Embry, Keiser, Chris Duane, Kirby, etc… move higher and higher against all currencies, especially the CAD dollar.

          As the US dollar appreciates, silver is lower and lower.

          I do not believe it has much down to move but it has been painful to watch

          • James in NY | July 21, 2015 at 6:29 pm |

            The fuse is lit, and it’s only a matter of time. I see no way out of this one. No good way. Gold and Silver will be king and queen, the wreckage will be extreme. No way out.

          • The $US is like King Joffrey. To save your own skin you have to prove ever harder that you are loyal, as he increasingly grows more dangerous, until the day his eyeballs explode with the venom of his own indulgence

          • Max Meister | July 22, 2015 at 1:18 am |

            @ J Pswine

            Yeah but that was to be expected. Jim Rogers forecasted a while ago that Investors will do exactly what they traditionally allways do when to outlook for the global economy is faltering. They rush into the Dollar as they think the US Dollar is still the most secure option to place your investments. But the fact that this is happening isn’t telling a lot about the health of the US Dollar per say. Rogers said that there is a lot of cash being hoarded at the sidelines at the moment and as that cash is held in US Dollars it’s means demand for it which drives it’s value up compared to most other currencies. We also have a possible rate hike this year which is another factor that will give upward pressure to the Dollar. Longer term the Dollar has only one way to go and that is the same direction it went since the FED was founded. It have lost already 97% of it’s value since then and there is no reason why that trend should reverse with all that gigantic dept and bubbles all over the place.

        • Not so sure, if oïl had not collpased in the eighties USSR would be probably still alive.

          They can reflate assets much more with more QE and long term rates below 0,5%

        • Rusty Brown in Canada | July 23, 2015 at 5:37 am | Reply

          “…eagerly await the day that the world
          gets the collapse it deserves…”

          Someday, gold will soar and I will get filthy rich; someday I will die.
          It really is just a question of which happens first.

          Greetings from Canada.

  2. Hi,

    Any idea when your next paid silver report/s will be available?

  3. Steve,

    A recent article explained the record short positions of late for PM’s of late and that it will reverse soon. The leverage on these shorts will reverse and soon a frantic buying spree will ensue to cover those positions. The massive dump of gold on the market in China looks like what the Central Banks have been doing for years. Basically, they just pass the baton to the next one when QE stops for one side so the game can continue.

    The continued manipulation on the Comex has now been passed onto the Shanghai Gold Exchange for the time being. These measures to drive the PM prices down so sharply looks very desperate and a telling sign IMHO that the crackup will start very soon. Declining energy production is rarely spoke of, as you mentioned, so this will further escalate the money printing and debt obligations. Debt write-downs or a debt jubilee is the only way I can see avoiding a total global financial meltdown. We will see.

  4. Silver and gold will be useless under a dictatorship, every transaction will be debit or credit cards. Gold and silver tanked also after y2k so I see it as a crummy investment. Copper and lead will fare better in a collapse and anything you can barter like canned goods, hand tools, ammo, etc..

    • laura,

      LOL…. thanks for the comment and laugh.

      steve

      • Laura isn’t totally wrong. I have no doubt that the elite will fight any form of money that allows transactions out of their control. That includes Bitcoin and PM. The only thing that makes the rollout of such a plan not so easy is the fact that they would have to ban it globally all at once. I don’t see how they could do that for now’ but who knows what will happen in case of a global crash. Anything is possible and the history teaches us that the raise of Dictatorships was always the consequence of epic crashes.

    • thats not the way china, india and russia see it, and theyre spending boatloads to acquire it.

  5. Minor edit:
    “Retirement Market (2014) is valued at $24.5 trillion compared to $991 billion in 1980 … increased 96%”. Much worse: [24.5T – 0.991T] / [0.991T] x 100 = 2372%, not 96% growth.

    • Stephen,

      You are most certainly correct. I don’t know how I destroyed that calculation. It has been edited. Thanks.

      steve

    • I would think some inflation adjustment would be required in the calculation for the percentage number to have any real meaning.

      • 100 dollars in 1980 equals 290 dollars today. No where in the ball park of a 2000+ percent.

        • ok but then lets calculate is another way
          how many oz did it take to buy an average suburban house in 1978. How many oz does it take now? When the rubber band snaps, will house prices hit your left thumb or will gold prices hit your right?

          • If you stay diversified you won’t have to worry about which thumb or finger gets hit. All asset classes rise and fall in value. Over the long term, those who remain faithful in their diversified contribution will have financial security.

  6. How many times have I told people, the (ones) that run the show, always manipulate the show! They won’t let the masses keep their stocked metals anyway. Remember FDR, what he did?

    • Yes I remember. Very few turned in their gold based on the large amount of pre-1933 gold still circulating; constantly for sale. The real reason for the move was a prelude to increasing the price of gold relative to the dollar, to create inflation in a deflationary cycle.

      Don’t be so naive to think government can get an appreciable quantity of anything out of peoples hands. They can’t get heroin and meth out of people’s hands despite billions spent each year. In 2015 onward few people will not surrender their tangible assets to a morally corrupt government owned by bankers and corporations.

      • If you hold gold or silver eagles, They are worth a monetary figure. How can they demand U.S. money back. They could ask for bullion back.

    • Very few turned in their gold. Proof, most of those pre 33 coins
      are sitting in investors lock boxes.

    • This pullback IS the confiscation. Capice ? If the US pulls a FDR they are toast, and either way they would not get “enough” gold.

    • Another factor is that people were more trusting of the government back in the 30’s. I’m guessing less than 1 per cent would turn in their gold now.

  7. In the evening the miner stocks turn to green.I hope this is the changing point.
    All the gold and silverbugs hat to get pain and suffery money.

    Strange enough in miner stocks i had one right investment and the other stocks all deep red.
    This one stock(Temex Resources) helps me to be even.I bought 600 000 pieces.

  8. Unfunded funded liabilities seem to have lost their foundation. This article is correct, soon the debt chain will be too hot to handle. Signs of a collapsing world economy are everywhere, from Baltic dry to QE, Abenomics, peak oil, China’s stockmarket exploding up as well as down, too much leverage, too much debt. The system is being propped up with more iou’s, debt, and lies. “They” know, and they try to push people further into the rabbit hole with exponential weirdness, like dumping 10 million ounces of paper gold within a few seconds.

    Steve, you seem to have a troll overload on your website.

  9. Rumplestiltskin | July 21, 2015 at 12:29 pm | Reply

    Peak oil shale production my royal *ss ! They have barely scratched the surface of our Oil Shale deposits. When Brent Crude dropped below $75 a barrel is was no longer profitable to mine oil shale and turn it into gasoline. The estimates of our oil-shale deposits was in the billions of barrels.

    So tell me why you would take EIA’s word for what they say is peak oil has been reached in those fields. WHAT IS THEIR AGENDA? We’ve heard the “Peak Oil” idiocy for decades now and have yet to reach that point.

    Greed and politics have commingled in our energy sector, as every segment lies to gain the political advantage over the ignorant citizens inability to fathom what is being elucidated in this article.

    But “Peak Oil Shale” NOT !!!

    • In my opinion you are focus is skewed. The question isn’t how much oil is there, but rather how much energy does it take to extract the oil in the shale? How much environmental damage does it cause, and how much energy will be required for the cleanup? We could have a trillion barrels of oil within the rock. If its not economically fees-sable to extract, and process then it might as well not be there.

      • petedivine’s comment is spot-on correct.

        And shale oil ISN’T cost-effective to go after at these prices, let alone the EROI consideration. That is why oil companies are pulling out…they will only lose money for a while in an area before scaling back or shutting down.

    • “Peak oil shale production my royal *ss ! They have barely scratched the surface of our Oil Shale deposits”

      You are profoundly ignorant. Study the data before spewing out nonsense.

  10. There’s lots of oil left in the ground Rumplestiltskin. Plenty more since we only used up about half since the mid 1800’s. It’s too bad however that we have to burn so much energy to get it out of the ground leaving little “net energy” for economic activities. Fiat / debt based currency and the stock market needs economic growth for it’s very survival and when we have such a low EROEI (net energy) all I see for the future is contraction.

    Great post Steve thanks again!!

  11. There’s lots of oil still in the ground. Just look at the huge find in the Ackaringa Basin. Up to 233 billion barrels…

  12. I keep warning my elderly neighbor to get away from his paper retirement accounts, but his meddling wife always chimes in, just as i have him unstuck from the mud and seeing clearly. This latest article Steve, is gonna put some wind back in my sails of ill repute. This time I’ll make sure the sea hag is off spending somewhere. Seriously folk’s, who would keep a penny behind these closed doors with such money worshiping scumbags at the helm?

    • Yes, Eric, please help the poor old bastard become homeless and pennyless before he dies. Getting investment advice from people who have lost (almost) everything in a terrible investment, talking about the world ending any day now. You truly have no humility or self-awareness. And that goes for the whole gold and silver club — religious nuts.

      • “And that goes for the whole gold and silver club — religious nuts.”

        Yeah, for the last 4 years watching my PM portfolio collapse in price while the S&P 500 skyrockets, I get accused of wrongfully being a gold fanatic by friends and family. However, I began buying this barbarous relic aggressively since it was rising in price from $350/oz level. Nevertheless, in times of depressed metal prices I occasionally self reflect as to whether my conviction to stay 90% invested in PM’s is foolhardy. And then I read another fascinating piece like this one comparing oil output to GDP, price of gold, and total retirement investments. This Sroccco article was extremely interesting with logical conclusions.

        But, all in all, one has to be familiar with Ludwig von Mises and the Austrian School of Economics which in a nutshell decry the ultimate outcomes of governments creating central banks to control money supply and facilitate government debt spending. Such arrangements always fail when money system is not anchored in gold but rather flourishes at the whim of bankers. Bureaucrats must never be allowed to tamper with credit creation and manipulating interest rates because the short term benefits will always be destroyed by the long term (perhaps unintended) consequences.

        Gold may suffer more declines in the near term. But the dollar is absolutely doomed in the relatively near future. Will gold holders be rewarded for their convictions to hold gold? 5000 years of history should add some comfort. As to whether some future “tyrant” will attempt to pry gold from the hands of gold savers,our reply is always…..just let them try!

        For now, I’ll stick to my gold religion but I won’t preach my religion to others, especially after 4 hard years of suffering. Nobody will listen and I can’t blame them for doing so. At least,,,not yet.

        • Yes, I believe that all paper currencies are doomed eventually. But, that’s a very long-term perspective. Nobody can know when the USD will collapse. It can take another hundred years. However, I am really getting fed up by these dickhead types like Schiff and Sprott and Turk and their followers like eric boy over here, who have the arrogance to tell old people how to fuck up their lifelong savings. At least the old man’s wife is still sensible and doesn’t allow the bullshit investment to happen. A man in his seventies doesn’t have decades to recover from a brutal gold/silver price “correction”. You can stick to whatever religion you wish. You are still young. I wish that having gold at hand bring you a lot of happiness in your life. Even though it will lose dollar value, it will earn that much of your love.

        • Please stop with this government bull****, there are mere employees of western oligarchy and other private conglomerate.

          This analysis could be true one century ago but not anymore…

      • Gutless half-a-Mann,did you lose your material wealth? Seems to me you’ve suffered large amounts of humility in your crummy life, lashing out like a beaten step child.. As for me I’ll continue to reap the profits from pussies like you that couldn’t hold out for the long run. Sucks to be you half-a- Mann.

        • Please, bugger off. At least give a minimalist argument. Ad hominems are so pre-gold-bubble-ish… Go listen some more to King World News and drink a few cups of coffee, that will give you the rage you need today to go on with your life. You have no money left but you have your gold. Good for you.

  13. That is an excellent report and interesting as to the way you have presented it. However, there is one important thing that all must keep in mind. When you are a PM investor as I am you have to realize that you are a small majority against the developed investing world who will take any sort of tactic to protect their interests especially those of the elite. Most of those governments have decided some time ago to replace their gold and silver reserves for bond yielding assets. Have you checked lately where the majority of so-called safe bond yielding assets come from. If you said banks then you have got the right answer. Have you noticed that not one bankster has gone to jail for all of the shenanigans that have been disclosed. The shareholders took it on the chin for the fines leveled to date a small pittance compared to what the banks gained. But 2007-2008 has showed us that the elite and those in power are not infallible and can only push the can only so far down the road before redemption. Let’s hope we can stay in there because the reward will probably be worth it. Keep the faith.

    • No currency in this world and throughout time has survived forever….none. In order for the U.S. / petro dollar / world currency to keep going , debt must be a big part of it. Take all the paper instruments that there are including bonds , they are linked to that debt note….all based on a belief system .

      Don’t misunderstand , the dollar , wallstreet , bond trading ,hedge funding , paper commodity trading ,and so on all helped by playing an important role in keeping our world organized and moving in a certain order for years. It wasn’t a perfect system over all , but it did allot of good for many.
      Civilization had it made for the last 100 years to where the creature comforts were at reach for a vast amount of people , both rich and poor.

      However for all of us there is an unrecognizable shift going on which cannot be denied. It is to some extent uncanny how so many dynamics are lining up , both man made and otherwise , relating to this .

      Due to the unpredictable nature of what lies ahead a good insurance policy might be advisable. Keep in mind that you can’t buy fire insurance when your house is already burning down.

      Physical gold and silver carries no counter party risk . Both can be an excellent form of insurance should things get to a highly questionable period.

  14. Steve, appreciate the work and analysis you do. However, I’m not sure a comparison of gold price with total value of the retirement market makes much sense. Much of RM is in bonds, bonds are effectively created debt – an accounting entry. Create the debt, lend it with interest due, retire the debt (write it down to nothing when repaid or after default). So the key is the interest on the debt – which I can understand you compare with energy. But no point comparing energy and gold to the principal of the debt (the level of debt is too high, but that is another argument). Similarly with equities there is a relationship with energy with many companies but not all, and the wealth generated the key element in equity prices. Many Tech companies for example will generate much wealth on the back of little energy consumption. Many property companies hold very high value land assets (awaiting possible future development) and that value has no relation with energy.
    I’d be more interested in knowing what the relative % of all retirement assets were gold in 1980 versus now?

  15. The HUI unbelievable.I never saw such a money burning.

  16. Exactly.Read kings world,Mike Maloney,Peter Schiff.They have all one in common.They have no clue how the financial system works.

    Soon you will be shocked when the gold price fall another 10 or 20%.The miner stock holder have lost their money.The next are you, who believe this experts.

    I will later remember you.

    • Very strong miners performance today only 2/3% losses when we need 20/30% diwn days…

    • Anyone who thinks Peter Schiff and Mike Maloney don’t know how the financial system works is more than mistaken. They know how it works. For someone to think they don’t is a sign that that critic doesn’t know how it works.

  17. the gold/silver community has got several thesis wrong( temporarily? ):
    1. can’t trust the chinese commies; the commie’ mafia-like regime is in its last leg.
    2. in the ugly contest, USA is still the best and the most powerful
    3. commodities rout makes the manipulation easier to fool most ppl, including professional money managers
    4. central banks’ substantial holdings in gold make selling to each other while controlling the prices much easier
    5. peak oil is delayed because of shale oil

    the surge in 2010-2011 happened along with commodity boom. actually the other commodities had better and more spetacular runs than gold/silver. 1 guy in china under 30 made 3 billion RMB trading cotton in 2010-2011!

    so indeed, gold/silver suck!

    for poor me, this all means there’s 5-10 more years of misery ahead.

    stay put, folks!

    the golden route is not the easier one!

    • 5/10 yers may be excessive, I would say final is 6/18 months ahead but possible 30% more losses.

      Miners will lose another 50/75% IMO to new all time lows.

  18. a lot of ppl don’t have any clue about china.

    let me repeat: china is the most corrupt country in the world:
    1. the chinese miracle is about 1 billion slaves sweating in factories and construction sites making peanuts for what they do
    2. 100 million chinese ruling class and their families living royal lives in macau, shanghai, hk, beijing and overseas enclaves.
    3. every one of the ruling bureaucrats are criminals that should be jailed for corruption.
    4. they jail everyone who dare to challenge the commie’s mafia like ruling.

    there’ll be a bloody revolution in china before USA collaspes.

    so USD won’t go away in any near future.

    it’s every other currency including RMB that’s in great danger.

    don’t get me wrong. i’m a fan in hard currency.

    • If the Chinese economy & currency collapses ours will too. It’s a global economy; e aren’t strong, stable, and isolated enough to withstand that.

    • 1. China has no interests into rising gold vs fiat prices for now. It is not imo a matter of corrupt or not. capitalist will do where there is profits, and corruption is one of the best way to make business.
      2. 100 million people would be well enough in order to blow the comex and without speaking of the PBOC : it’s up to them and they do not want it for now.
      3. Agreed, also true in the us and european commission
      4. Same thing in the west : all real opponents are attacked financialy first : lost job and fiscal attacks from the local IRS.

      About the bloody revolution, that would maybe speed up the process as chinese communist leaders would moave their ass finally in order to not lose the control !

      I do not think USD will disappear or euro (could be split but not like Zimbabwe), but I think it will be devalued against gold and silver from 2017 to 2020/2022

  19. Our money is away.I only hope the silver pusher too.Until now i hear only wrong things from them.
    Not one statement they made is or was true.

    We had now manipulation thats true.But we had them too when silver was pushed to 50$.

    How much money people lost money?For the younger one maybe accetable for the older one a catastrophe.
    Shame on you.

    • Shame on who??

      Who gets the blame for what??

    • 50 was an overshoot in the same way 8/10 which are coming will be.

      If you can wait 5 moren years I think it should be ok but in the meantime you cannot afford any assets , that is sad but true

  20. Everybody must know what he said here or elsewhere.I’am not the law and order man here.

  21. For longs here is the problem : commodities are much too high

    http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=commodity-price-index&months=360

    We need another 50% minimum in commodities index. Hopefully oïl will go to 25 soon…

  22. the only gold/silver guys who flourish in the past 4 years are guys who run gold/silver blogs.

    well done! steve!

    no intention to blame or ridicule. just state the facts.

    • jude jin,

      None taken. Gold and silver are the safest assets to own going forward. This was never a short-term trade, but a med-long term investment when most everything else implodes in value. Nothing has changed. However, I see more and more folks become disenfranchised with the precious metals. This is typical for most folks.

      Kyle Bass was also ridiculed for being EARLY in his Sub-Prime trade. However, he still made $600 million when the FAN HIT THE SHEET. Same thing is taking place with the metals.

      Fundamentals just get better every day.

      While some folks here continue to provide negative comments on the metals, humans live a long time. Now, if we were living the lifespan of a GNAT, then maybe things would be different. The U.S. will be a much different place by 2020.. and probably much sooner.

      Gold and silver will protect those who were smart enough to SEE THE WRITING ON THE WALL.

      steve

      • i’m a PM bug myself. i’m just stating the facts that all the PM bloggers didn’t see this coming.

      • There is a difference between a short bet and a 95% loss for miners for example even with no debts Inside…

        I agree that gold is only 45% lower than its current highs, so we could lose another 35% easily.

        I will also be happy to see most emerging markets and Brics completely destroyed (hopefully also in china but far from sure) as they have no balls to fight the 100 criminal people in wall street and London who are running the show.

        Shame on the elites of these countries who represent more than 4 billion people for being complete slave to western oligarchy.

        I remember when some collègues were expatriate in china where every chi nese chicks wanted to be f..ked by westeners. Another good example are indian elites : still UK minions !

        Just unbelievable…

  23. so i think the commies’s 1658 tons is not far from the truth.

    the commies are no match for the Rockfeller gangs, who financed the commies in the early days.

    the commies will go up in flames first. i place my bet and side with Rocks!

    i despise the commies much more than i despise the fed.

    • Commies : are you dreaming ?

      They NEVER existed except in american fantasm like jim Willie : they were all bureaucratic state CAPITALISM : Stakhanov and ford : same fight !

      • the chinese commies are different from western bureaucratic state CAPITALISM:
        1. the commies still chant communism as their core principle/ideal
        2. the commies root out their enemies in open mafia style
        3. the commies may someday return to communist practice of mass property confiscation and murder to secure their rule

        you know what a lot of yourn girls in china undergo plastic surgery to command a higher price to be f*ked by communist cadres at night.

        at dinner tables of those communist cadres, the pimps hand out pokers with girls pictures printed on them.

        that’s how everything works.

        the hot money flowing into this country is communist.

        • 1. anglo american still singing about democracy but are doing everything they can to destroy it in greece but are still labeled as for democracy !
          2. that’s worst in ussr and china I agree, however, nowadays with the absolute diktat of laws and lawyers, it is sometimes about the same : try to make

          3. one fundamental

          I have not said that china from mao to today is “good” , or ussr Under lenin and stalin (kroutchev was slightly better) was “good” but I wanted to say that there is smaller difference that what is usually said in the west. There are also some covergence such productivist state ie quantity over quality (I over simplify for a written forum obviously).

          You should read more about the historical, political, theorical and societal issues which lead to this blochvik revolution and you will be suprised by many things !

  24. Steve

    Normally this is right.But different to earlier times is the low interest rate.Because of this they can make debts as much as they want.Look to the ECB they finance greek a long time with the ELA credits.

    This new money has low effects in the real economy.The limit is the inflation and if the people from other countries accept the printing out of thin air.It seems that they did so.

    The south of europe is completely financed via printer press.It”s not like in the USA.Here does no country gives money tot another on.Different to europe.

    The money goes to the stock market.Here is the point.How long can they pump up the stocks.

  25. when the other countries/currencies collapse, their elites will transfer paper wealth into USA, this keeps up the illusion of all is well in this country.

    i’m just saying this is the playbook.

    the final chapter is being written this way. so all the chants about dollars collapse in near term is very stupid.

    • There is another facts that most of dérivatives are labeled in dollars and that they are required to close the positions.

  26. all the stupid chants:

    1. leeb chanting solar demand huge silver ; blah, blah, yet he bought a historical house in phillie? this almost alarmed me that he’s not putting money to where his mouth is.

    2. steve chanting peak enery(EROI);

    3. jackass — dollar always going to collapse in next three months

    the only honesty is shown by sprott, who stopped chanting anything now; i’d appreciate that he chanted he would temporarily sell at 50 in 2011 too.

    all of them didn’t see the stuff i mentioned in my previous posts: central banks are in full control; repeat of 1975-1976; plus the ugly commodities rout;

    although i believe the bottom is near, it won’t go below 1000.

    they have to know down gold/silver along with other commodities to maintain the mistruth that gold/silver is nothing but commodity.

    if we don’t see commodities return to bull run, we’d be stuck in low numbers for years to come.

    but i do believe we all have to stay put and have no choice but stay put now!

    • no jackass changed : more subtil now.

      the dollar is going to rise and rise and rise and disappear.

      it means everything and nothing

    • I thin k we are going to 950/980 at the minimum and probably 850/900

    • Yeah, you have half a point because you can go anytime back in time for the last seven years and it’s all “collapse is tomorrow” style of thing…

      But on the other hand, when you go to the fundamentals and make some math, it is impossible not to foresee a collapse coming and soon.

      My rule is simple: The more time it passes from the last BIG crash, the closer we are to thr next one, and you can’t deny it.

      Enjoy sales. If u understand metals as a insurance, then you like gold being cheap.

      Then there is the broke people like me, who wish gold went back to 300 $… Dreaming is for free!!!!

  27. now i’d have to admit armstrong is right about money flow.

    they manipulate the price in order to influence money flow.

    they forced money to flow out of gold/silver into other bubbles.

    there are eough incremental new supply of gold/silver every year to maintain price at such low level unless big money start to flow into PM, which i can’t see when.

    small money that buy silver coins just don’t affect the supply/demand to tilt the balance yet!

    all the bloggers will keep chanting their specific tunes every day in and out as comfort pills to wounded bugs.

    for me, i will buy some more coins and i’m very happy that i’m still alive and back to the best country on earth.

    steve, i’m with you on the pm boat. although we differ in some aspects.

  28. a lot of tourists may be admiring the shiny and modern highrises in shanghai or beijing.

    but let me just tell you one fact:

    the recent two heads of shanghai high courts are nothing but illiterate junior high school graduates, communist cadres while the head before commies took power held law degrees from harvard and columbia and committed suicide under commies.

    such is the so-called modernization.

    cia knows all this but keep silent.

    • There was never commies in china… never existed, just bureaucartic statist capitalist !

      • the commies existed and practiced what they preached for a while. confiscafted land and factories from capitalists and killed them. you don’t know history.

        the current ruling gangs were teenages back then but probably took part in torturing and killing their teachers in junior or senior high schools.

        • I did not deny the facts, I deny the “commies”/communists name.

          They never were communists : for example in USSR, they were 5 years plan in order to move forward into communism : they always admitted communism never happened in USSR (or in China).

          I just wanted to say that an oligarchy : so called soviet just replaced (through the wrong labeled communism) the previous oligarchy (tsarist russia) in order to run a productivist (and bureaucratic) state.

          It is the same purpose : money (and power) concentrate in a few hands (capitalists in the west), and even more reduced in the eastern state (bureaucratic head of state).

          Both systems are immoral and will collpase.

  29. hope you guys see the difference between the commies and western state capitalism now after i tell you the above.

    please stop admiring china.

    • I do not admiring china, I hate them, they are just another productivist just like henry ford !

      • i hate you for comparing henry ford to commies. henry ford’s invention of streamlined production line is great.

        your ideology needs a surgical operation.

        • No, you are just ignorant of history, you have been brainwashed. Like most peole you have never read anything from the “evil camp”.

          China of the 21th century is the ultimate perfection of this system…

          May the henry ford’s victims forgive you as you do not know what you are talking about !

          • henry ford didn’t force anybody to work for him. what are you talking about?

            technology may make ppl redudant in some fields but ppl in freedom should always find work elsewhere.

            i know perfectly what you are talking about.

            henry ford may be forced to join the fed scheme.

            but he is not to blame for this shit.

          • henry ford didn’t force anybody NOT to work for him either. his invention of productive methods is NOT evil!

            your ideology needs surgery.

            NO JOKE.

          • if you think anybody is a victim of henry ford, you don’t know anything about true sufferings in this world.

            this, i really mean it.

          • So, henry ford is a messiah or what because he has adapted some taylor principles ? Ok great !

            I was not speaking of the fed. It is just funny that he bowed to “external pressure” after having written namely one book despite tens of billions in today dollars but the pressure was too great for him !

            So there is not problem chinese “entrepreneurs” which are running “factories” in western africa (such as erytrea and ethiopia) because they do not “force” anybody ?

            It looks you have never seen a good “product” of your life. You are probably eating mcdonalds and drink robert parker wines !

          • I agree it could be worse : so when the banksters are fu ck ing 99% of us, that is not so serious because there are people which are taking bomb in their face (lybia) or have to work in chinese working camp : true but not an excuse for me !

  30. “back to the best country on earth. ” : which one ?

    • “the beautiful country” as in chinese. LoL

      • sorry did not understand the joke : china looks surely like hell, I will try ot never put a single foot over there !

        unfortunately everything looks like more and more to usa and china

  31. the last capitulation of PM longs mirrors the last capitulations in google shorts.

    so i’m placing my bet the bottom is here or near.

    this is called one single-stranded psyche.

    i’m happy that the PM equities lost as much as i did in futures. LoL

    everybody is in the same 90+% boat sooner or later.

  32. From the above website (do not know whether it is true, to be checked) :

    “Another interesting fact, it wasn’t Henry Ford’s idea to make the modern moving assembly line, it was one of his workers who was going to the butchers to pick up some meat. The guy was impressed & infatuated in the way the pig carcass was hung on a hook & passed through different butchering stations that were experts in on area of the pig. He went back to Henry Ford with the idea of doing the same with assembly. Hopefully that guy got a massive bonus for changing the way automobiles were made.”

    I would not surprised he invented nothing, he was just clever to use and put in pratice other ideas.

    The reason he is so much admired is just because he was extremely rich… not for what he did or invented. For example I have more admiration for Nikolas Tesla.

    So many epople have found great thing but never got rewarded (Anton Bruckner for instance).

  33. steve, when i want to, i can stir up your board, in a good way! LoL

  34. “Here we can see which asset class increased the most in value.”

    No we can’t. Steve executes a classic argument fallacy here: comparing apples to oranges. In this case trying to compare the cost of a unit (gold$/oz) vs the number of units of something else.

    Take for comparison a Coke stacker vs a Pepsi investor. John’s can of coke cost $.85 in 1980 and now it’s worth $1.10. Mark started out with 1 can of pepsi in 1980. He now has 24+ cans.

    Or to really make it obvious. John’s AGE cost $850 in 1980 but now an AGE costs $1,100. Mark had 1 AGE in 1980 but now has 24.5.

    ‘Who is doing better?’ is obviously a nonsensical question because there is no comparison. John might have a 1,000 cans of coke or a 1,000 AGE’s.

    For Steve to present a valid point, he would need to compare the change in $ amount invested in gold vs that of other investments.

    • Silver Alert,

      There is no way to find out the increase in gold investment since 1980. However, price does offer us a clue. The average price of gold in 1980 was $612 and today its $1,100. Price does have everything to do with the value of assets.

      Why? The Dow Jones Average was 2,600 in 1980 and this last month, it was 18,000. This has nothing to do with how much of the Dow Jones stocks individuals or institutions have been invested, but it does show how DIJA increased nearly 7 times its value, while gold didn’t even double.

      Because Americans have been deluded to believe PAPER RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS are real assets, 98% have invested in this Ponzi Scheme. Now, if their BRAINS functioned better and they knew gold was a much better asset to hold, demand for gold would have skyrocketed… thus the price as well.

      This was my point. However, you are free to spend as much as your time debating this issue.

      steve

      • since the authorities(gold council, etc) tend to exaggerate the amount of gold available, i tend to think they’re underestimating how much gold modern technology has consumed and won’t be recoverable. just think about all those farms of commodity computer hardware, that’s a lot of gold in them.

      • Steve:

        First, I absolutely agree with the point you were trying to make.

        Second, the end does not justify the means. Using specious arguments only weakens your position in the long run. Data and logical integrity are still important despite hardly anyone seeming to care about them any more.

        Finally, there seems to be a tendency to cavalierly dismiss any critique or disagreement.

        It’s frustrating to see someone you respect and generally agree with start using the very tactics they have railed against in the past being used by the anti-gold crowd. If you can’t make your point one way then you need to figure out how to do so differently. In an honest way.

        I’ve pointed out the error. Whether you choose to correct it or not is of course up to you. And that is all I have to say on this matter.

  35. “Mark had 1 can of Pepsi in 1980. Now he has 24.” Well… he certainly made his case, then. : )

    In U>S>A : approx. 2% of the common population holds any P.M. whatsoever. Not many more have any savings either. So you METALS haters can chill out. Your world is safe.

    So, “Mann” – sorry to hear that you lost your @$$ buying PM’s at the wrong time. I purchased a few pieces of Ag back when it was $3 an ounce. I Hope it goes back to that level… then I will buy a few more.

    You sound so angry. You must be talking to the Chinese…. because Americans don’t give a $hit.

    It’s all just flood insurance, anyway. If you’re trying to make quick profits off of it…. short the ETF’s.

    Paper will only ever get you paper in return. I have some stock in that… in my bathroom closet…. under ‘Charmin’ and ‘Kleenex.’

    You folks get so extremely ‘off topic’ – that I can only surmise that ‘babelfish’ is mis-translating your words.

    You know… if Alexander Hamilton were alive today…

    he’d be like…. 250, or something like that.

    P.S. Get a life.

    (SRS…. keep up your good works. I enjoy studying trends…. )

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