Surging North American Silver Investment Pushes Domestic Supply Deficit To New Record

North American silver investment via its domestic supply suffered another large deficit in 2015.  How big was the deficit?  It was huge, surging 70% compared to 2014… and this only includes silver investment from two Official coin sales.

Let me explain.  We need to start off by showing the total Canadian Silver Maple Leaf sales for 2015.   The Royal Canadian Mint finally published their 2015 Annual Report in which they stated that sales of Silver Maples jumped 18% from 29.2 million (Moz) in 2014 to 34.3 Moz in 2015:

Canadian-Maple-Leaf-Sales-2014-vs-2015

Sales of Canadian Silver Maples started off strong in Q1 2015, but declined in Q2 2015 by falling 400,000 oz compared to the same period in 2014 (7.2 Moz Q2 2014 vs 6.8 Moz Q2 2015).  However, things turned around significantly in the Q3 and Q4 2015 during the silver retail investment shortage (July-Oct).

Sales of Silver Maples were a record 18.6 Moz in the second half of 2015 versus 13.8 Moz in the second half of 2014.  If we add Canadian Silver Maple Leaf sales to U.S. Mint Silver Eagles for 2015, it jumped to a stunning 81.3 Moz compared to 73.2 Moz in 2014.

I discussed this in my THE SILVER CHART REPORT which was released in June 2015.  Here is CHART #37 of a total of 48 charts in the report:

U.S. & Canadian Silver Production vs Silver Eagle & Maple Sales

As we can see, combined U.S. and Canadian domestic silver production was 96.6 Moz in 2001 while total Silver Maple & Eagle sales were only 9.2 Moz.  Thus, the total Silver Maple & Eagle sales only accounted for 9% of the two countries silver mine supply.  This trend started to change significantly in 2008 as Silver Maple & Eagle sales consumed nearly half of U.S. and Canadian silver mine supply.

However, this trend turned into a deficit 2011 as Silver Maple & Eagle sales were 9.4 Moz higher than domestic silver mine supply (63.1 Moz Official Coins vs 53.7 Moz supply).  Even though Silver Maple & Eagle sales declined in 2012, the net investment supply deficit resumed again in 2013 and 2014.  Matter-a-fact, Silver Maple & Eagle sales were nearly 20 Moz more than U.S. and Canadian domestic silver mine supply in 2014.

Surging North American Silver Investment Pushes Domestic Supply Deficit To New Record In 2015

Well, if you think 2014 was a banner year for the silver investment domestic supply deficit, take a look at my updated chart including the data for 2015:

US-&-Canadian-Silver-Production-vs-Silver-Eagle-&-Maple Sales-2015

Here we can see that total Silver Maples & Eagles of 81.3 Moz is 33.7 Moz more than domestic silver mine supply of 47.6 Moz from the U.S. and Canada.  Moreover, this only includes the manufacture of these two Official Silver Coins.  This does not include the estimated 40-50 Moz of private rounds and bars now including in the 2016 World Silver Survey.

What a difference since 2001… AYE?  Total Silver Maple & Eagle sales in 2001 were less than 10% of U.S. and Canadian Mine supply.  Thus, these two countries had plenty of silver to supply their investment needs that year.  However, the U.S. and Canada had to import 33.7 Moz in 2015 just to produce these two Official Silver coins.

While the U.S. and Canada can continue to import enough silver to meet its current needs, this may not be true in the future.

If you have not checked out THE SILVER CHART REPORT, you can find more about it by clicking on the link.

SIlver Chart Cover Graphic 3D shadow

As the price of silver skyrockets during the next global financial collapse, the Silver Market will become one of the world’s most explosive markets in the future.

The Silver Chart Report is a must-read for the new and experienced precious metals investor. Most analysts focus on a certain area or sector of the silver market.

However, the information in this report illuminates a holistic view of many sectors of the silver industry, capturing the relationships that connect many parts of the market.

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19 Comments on "Surging North American Silver Investment Pushes Domestic Supply Deficit To New Record"

  1. Steve, I’m still 100% convinced that lack of Phyzz Silver is going to drive premiums way way up. Expecting Premium to be substantially higher by 4th of July, and even though still pretty low today….fully expect Premium to be equal to, or even exceed the spot price of Ag Mint coins by Labor day….
    For those that have been stacking, its not spot that they should be paying attention to so much….it’s the premium rising…that’s going to take their breath away…

    • “For those that have been stacking, its not spot that they should be paying attention to so much….it’s the premium rising…that’s going to take their breath away…”

      Yes as long as the COMEX maintains a fantasy, shell-game price, the real selling price of physical will go up regardless, hence the increasing spread or premium.

      All of you waiting to see a big smash-down in prices? You just saw the latest attempt.

    • Won’t take my breath away, as I already know that. Hi! Ya! 4oz.

    • 4 oz,

      It will be interesting to see how things play out this year in the precious metals market. I find it quite fascinating that Gold & Silver were not crushed lower by the Commercials as they still have record short positions. For the metals to be up today during a BROADER MARKET SELLOFF, is quite interesting.

      Regardless, I will be posting an article tomorrow about the SEVERE TROUBLE ahead in the ENERGY INDUSTRY. Wait until you see the chart I will be publishing tomorrow.

      steve

      • The commercials may have large short positions, but those positions are increasingly ineffective at manipulating price downward.

        ” ….there is a lot of institutional cash on the sidelines waiting to buy into the pm sector on any pullback. That’s why the metals have popped after that manipulated take-down on Monday”

        http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-and-silver-are-being-bought-on-every-manipulated-hit/

        • David,

          Yes, this TIME could be different. Will the huge Commercial short positions on GOLD & SILVER be finally overrun?? If not, it’s just a matter of time.

          steve

          • Please do not make your Bill Hotler, we have already Jim Sinclair webiste for this purpose !

      • Steve, what do make of France now considering banning imports of US produced natural gas? Is this to curry further favor with Russia? At the moment, Russia is fuming over the US “missile shield” that has been erected in eastern Europe. Could Putin in an act by way of tit-for-tat shut off the gas taps to Europe? This brinksmanship being pushed by the US through NATO against Russia, is becoming very dangerous. There will be consequences.

        • OutLookingin,

          France’s stance on this seems to be political rather than economic. They have banned any shale gas production in France so many members are saying it’s not ethical to import U.S. shale gas. Now, is that a BS reason to cover the real intent to buy more from Russia… who knows.

          The U.S. foreign policy in Europe is on THIN ICE. Furthermore, U.S. natural gas production will likely start declining shortly as most of the shale gas fields have hit a plateau. I was surprised to see the Mighty Marcellus peak a few months ago. So, I really doubt the United States will be exporting much Shale-Nat-Gas in the future.

          steve

        • From France, shale oil extraction is still considered by most as some kid of rape of the earth so that it is not welcome ever from abroad.

  2. Yeah okay David, we all know the Comex maintains a fantasy/shell game…..but if ya get an new ASE pretty soon I’m thinking you’re going to basically pay twice spot price…..And even —IF— spot is held to say $20, all those ASE’s ya picked up back in 2014 are in dollar terms worth $40 all of a sudden despite what some Sh!tco chart says…and what if spot goes to $33…..um….you tracking with me??

    Heard this a couple weeks back and it’s my new fav quote, “Two words that will very soon describe physical silver: Too Late.”

  3. Barack Baruch | May 11, 2016 at 11:11 am | Reply

    So many people are not buying silver. They’re too busy watching Dancing with the Stars and American Idol. Everything will be o.k. as long as they have Facebook. When does the new I phone come out? My question is, “When will people wake up?”

  4. ” The Royal Canadian Mint finally published their 2015 Annual Report in which they stated that sales of Silver Maples jumped 18% from 29.2 million (Moz) in 2014 to 34.3 Moz in 2015:”

    Steve,

    As you know the RCM also produces and sells a lot of 10 ounce and 100 ounce bars. Do these figures include those? A large bullion dealer I know has trouble keeping the 10 ounce bars in stock they sell so well, so RCM must sell a lot.

    • David,

      According to the data put out by the 2015 Royal Canadian Mint Annual Report, we have the following:

      Total Gold Bullion Sold 2015 = 1,036,700 oz
      Gold Maple Leaf Sales 2015 = 953,000 oz
      Misc Bullion & Gold Sales 2015 = 83,700 oz

      Total Silver Bullion Sold 2015 = 36,141,000 oz
      Silver Maple Leaf Sales 2015 = 34,300,000 oz
      Misc Bullion & Silver sales 2015 = 1,841,000 oz

      So, we can see that the Canadian Mint sold the majority of Gold and Silver in Maples. You can see the remainder in misc Bullion bars and etc.

      Lastly, Precious Metals Expert Tom Cloud agrees with me based in data from his contacts. Indians like to purchase Silver Bars, while North Americans (for the most part) like to acquire Silver Coins & Rounds.

      steve

  5. When it’s too late….What you sow you reap….

  6. Perhaps a better question to ask right now is – When are the other producers going to not export their silver for USD? Asian electronics uses a fair bit and would like a reliable supply similar to whoever approached First Majestic – or Samsung/Avino. What will the price be like then.

  7. Another today action by the comex with silver obliterated in a few minutes : where’s the chinese saviours ? Nope…

    • Can take it down; can’t keep it down.

      ” there is a lot of institutional cash on the sidelines waiting to buy into the pm sector on any pullback. That’s why the metals have popped after that manipulated take-down on Monday …”

      the buy doesn’t have to come from China

      • I tend to agree with you : western gods of money have still the full spectrum dominance.
        Brics clows still decades away…

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