Silver Outperforms Key Markets, Metals & Energy

While December was a horrible month for the broader markets, that wasn’t the case for the precious metals.  As the Dow Jones and S&P 500 Indexes suffered the worst December since the Great Depression, the silver price enjoyed quite a healthy rally.  The notion of rising precious metals prices during a market selloff ran counter to most analysts who forecasted falling asset values across the board.

However, that’s exactly what took place in December.  I stated, since the beginning of 2018, that when the markets really started to decline the precious metals would likely disconnect and rally higher.  Over the past month, the silver price jumped by 10% and gold 5%, while most of the broader indexes, base metals, and energy suffered declines.  

For example, the Dow Jones Index fell 9% since December 1st, even though it has rallied from its low on Christmas Eve:

At its low on Christmas Eve, the Dow Jones Index fell a stunning 16% in a little more than three weeks.  Currently, the Dow is attempting to retest its 25 Day moving average (MA) and the 24,000 resistance level which I have shown in previous charts.  If we look at the graph below, we can see that the Dow finally touched the 25 Day MA today:

It will be interesting to see what the Dow does tomorrow, but at some point, the broader markets will reverse and continue to sell off.

I must say, watching Intra-Day trading of the markets, stocks, metals, commodities, and energy has been quite eye-opening.  Yes, I still follow the fundamentals as they are the true factors that guide the markets, but technical analysis provides us a “CRYSTAL BALL” on price trend movements.  I will explain at the end of the article, but let’s look at the next following charts.

The oil price has also been falling along with the broader markets.  Even though the U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil price peaked at the beginning of October, it dropped another 8% over the past month:

Now, it is quite amazing how the oil price also fell to its low along with the Dow Jones on Christmas Eve and then shot up higher the next trading day.  I will be explaining this in more detail in a new video update, but I believe the oil price will attempt to move back up to $52 level before reversing lower.

Please note, these charts were done early today before the market close, so the metals and energy prices are reflective of Jan 7th (Monday) trading.

The next chart is quite surprising because it usually trends with silver.  Because copper is the king base metal and a major indicator of the industrial sector, it provides an important gauge of the health of the economy.  The silver and copper prices tend to move together as they are both industrial metals.  However, the copper price has fallen 7% since Dec 1st while silver rose by 10%:

What a disconnect… ah?  As I mentioned, the majority of technical analysts forecasted that the precious metals would fall with the broader markets, but as we can see, quite the opposite took place.  While gold’s increase of 5% over the same period was half that of silver, at least it also outperformed the majority of assets in the market:

While the precious metals have done relatively well compared to most other assets this past month, I believe we are just seeing the beginning stages of much higher gold and silver prices over the next few years.  The broader markets have only begun their massive correction lower even though some analysts are suggesting the BOTTOM is in.

How on earth can the bottom of the Dow Jones Index be in when it hasn’t even fallen back to its 50 Month MA (BLUE LINE)?

As I have mentioned in previous articles and videos, the Dow will likely fall back at least to its 300 MMA (ORANGE LINE).  thus, when the Dow starts ripping down through its lower moving averages that is when FEAR will begin to really motivate investors into gold and silver.

Yes, I realize some of my readers don’t follow technical analysis because they believe the markets are RIGGED.  Even though the markets are rigged, they still follow specific rules, and when you know those rules, then a lot of the MYSTERY is removed.

Unfortunately, those who follow certain Alt-Media analysts (or so-called analysts) that focus only “conspiracies,” “hype,” and “manipulation” are missing the entire picture.  Why?  Well, let’s just say, if the Elite and governments control the system, and have been doing s0 forever, how would understanding the details of a conspiracy HELP YOUR SITUATION today???

And the answer is… NADA.  Humans have been screwing each other over for thousands and thousands of years.  Nothing has changed.  If you think you got it that bad living in the good ole United States with all the supposed government spying and loss of individual rights, how would you like to live when rulers pillaged lands, killed most of the men and woman and took the children for slaves?

Yeah, I know… life is rough driving in your new car to get a Starbucks while listening to your favorite I-tunes.  Come on, without the bankers; most Americans couldn’t afford a car or home.  I think a lot of people tend to forget that, as they blame the bankers for everything.  Now, don’t get me wrong, I am not defending bankers, but I am just trying to make people understand there are always two sides to a story.

Thus, while we in the Alt-Media Community enjoy complaining about all the HORRORS of living in a Government controlled Fiat Monetary system with trillions of debt and derivatives, I would doubt anyone would trade places with the typical POOR SLOB of a SERF during the Middle Ages.

Lastly, there is nothing wrong with reading or watching documentaries about conspiracies… I do.  However, it becomes a waste of time when an individual ONLY FOCUSES on conspiracies to the determinant of understanding other facets of the market and economy.

Revealing The CRYSTAL BALL Of How The Markets Trade

The reason I have been adding charts and technical analysis in my work over the past few months is that I have become amazed at how the markets trade.  By studying INTRA-DAY TRADING, I now understand more of the mystery behind price movements in stocks, commodities, metals, and energy.

Now, what happens on an Intra-day chart also takes place on a daily, weekly and monthly chart.  They ALL FOLLOW technical levels.  When you understand what takes place intra-day, you can even understand what happens over a more extended period.

I say it’s essential to start with the Intra-day (1,2,5,15,30 minute charts) trading because you can watch it take place right in front of you.  If you actually view a 1-minute chart and how the tickers move up and down off technical levels, then you can translate that to long term daily, weekly and monthly charts.

For example, I have been using the Intra-day technical levels to understand how stocks trade.  When you have a good idea when a stock price peaks or is at a low, then you can make a more confident trade or investment.  Today, I was focused on AMD – Advanced Micro Devices.  AMD is a good stock to trade because it has a great deal of volume and price movement.

Here is a chart of AMD with 5-minute candlestick tickers:

As we can see, AMD traded off its Linear Regression Lines (Blue & Red dashed lines) and moving averages.  More on this in upcoming videos and articles.  However, AMD finally bottomed and moved higher about 11 am.  Why did AMD bottom at 11 am, shown by the arrow and move higher??  There we no moving averages at that level.

To be able to spot when a stock reverses, we must look at many different chart intervals.  I use StockCharts to provide me with additional moving averages and clues to when a stock price will reverse.  The chart below is a 1-hour chart (each ticker is 1-hour), and the chart has twenty days trading.  The red highlighted area is trading today (Jan 8th):

AMD bounced higher on Jan 4th and 7th with no real correction.  By the end of trading on Jan 7th, AMD was becoming overbought.  You can see that by the high RSI reading in GREEN.  You will also notice that AMD was oversold the day after Christmas  (Dec 26th) when the RSI went into the RED.

I placed a short trade (want the price to go lower) early this morning on AMD and covered as it sold off, shown in the large red candlesticks.  However, I wanted to know how far AMD might fall before it would reverse.  Of course, there are no guarantees in trading or investing, but nothing goes up or down in a straight line.  Stocks correct up and down off technical levels ALL DAY LONG.

Because the first chart did not provide me with some sort of technical support level, I used my StockCharts to give me a pretty good idea that AMD would fall to that GREEN LINE moving average.  And that is precisely where AMD reversed.

I share this because the markets and traders use these technical levels to determine price trends.  When you understand these price trends, then you have more a CRYSTAL BALL in trading and investing in the markets.  This will become very handy when knowing when to invest in precious metals or mining stocks.

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53 Comments on "Silver Outperforms Key Markets, Metals & Energy"

  1. Supreme Tech Reading

    Steve, please check out what Jeff Gundlach’s of the DoubleLine fund, expects will happen in 2019. You can find the complete article at Zero Hedge titled, “This is a Completely Horrific Situation”.
    Many charts are in the article and one in particular that I have not seen before –
    Copper/Gold Ratio and 10 year U.S. Treasury Yield. Which is Gundlach’s favorite.
    I highly suggest that anyone wanting a different economic perspective, to check out the article. Considering DoubleLine’s performance to date, under Jeff Gundlach’s guidance, this guy is someone to pay close attention to.

  2. Michael Kohlhaas | January 9, 2019 at 8:18 am | Reply

    Good and silver are in lockstep. Will change over time. But way too early right now.

    • A month is a month, a year is a year
      Charts and monetary action
      Based on perception and fear
      In the air my friend
      Is only a fraction
      Of the game in the end

  3. Steve, You stated; “the silver price enjoyed quite a healthy rally” Now imagine what it would be like if the paper, hedge fund. algorithmic, derivative Ponzi scheme lost their grip on the silver market overall!! I would bet my bottom dollar that it would blast past the 100 mark in lightning speed.

  4. Steve
    Have been following u for a while now , good to see you’re introducing TA to your approach, definitely TA gives u an insight as to what will occur next

    During periods of a unemployment I gave TA my full attention with about 15000HRs
    under the belt.
    I can tell u that price is determined well ahead of time on monthlhy/weekly. charts, the markets are completely controlled by human intervention.
    The human intervention aspect are key levels used by the smart money, ie COMMERCIAL TRADERS. The key levels are institutional levels, once u can identify these trading becomes a lot less confusing

    • DisappearingCulture | January 9, 2019 at 3:38 pm | Reply

      “…the markets are completely controlled by human intervention.”
      What about algorithms or programmed buying…by computers?

      And if completely controlled by humans, why “allow” the markets to drop…ever?

      • The DOWJONES hasn’t dropped since 1932 DC! It is all about exponential growth.

        If you display the DOWJONES on a “Semi-Logarithmic” chart, draw a geometric line from the low (40.60) in 1932; increase that line by 100% every 10Years; you will find the DOWJONES fluctuates above that line.

        Now for the DOWJONES to achieve that trend, it means, prices in the market place had to increase “EXPONENTIALLY” by 100% every 10Years as well!

        If you construct the chart correctly, you will find the DOWJONES has increased in excess of 52,800%. So theoretically; if you purchased an item of some value in 1932, such as “Property”; its value today would be some 52800% higher.

        So, when you say; “And if completely controlled by humans, why “allow” the markets to drop…ever”? The DOWJONES has not DROPPED for 87 years based on the exponential growth example above.

        The problem is; exponential growth has its limitations, the bankers have stretched the rubber band to its limits. It is like the crack in the dam wall; you just have to have the patients to wait. 😊

        The Monetary System introduced in 1913 is FAULTY!

      • Yeah what about them, sure their are fact to consider particularly if you’re dumb enough to be a scalper, which the majority of retailers are,the COMMERCIALS are rarely wrong and BTW they make money when it sells off, because they sell it off. At the moment their buying all the way back DJ to 25000 ish then they will sell again. That is without any more QE of course and all the way she’ll go to 17000 ish over the next 12-24 months depending on FED

  5. Now if that’s not cherry picking your numbers, I don’t know what is…

  6. Day trading is where the money is in stocks I guess. Some people must be making a killing with the Dow gyrating so much.
    Steve, you’re right about living in the USA. We’re living the .01% compared to the history of the world. Damn, I have to make a five minute trip to the market to pick up some steak.

  7. I believe the market is manipulated; but not to the extent the conspiracy theorists say it is. I think the market will inevitably do what it wants, and that manipulation is more like small pushes in certain directions, or support at specific technical levels. Large market moves would blow through that sort of manipulation without trouble. Economic mother nature does what it wants, it won’t be stopped by mere humans

    • Nathaniel,

      Couldn’t agree more. The Bix Weirs who continue to put out rubbish like, “The Central Bankers can push the Gold & Silver price where ever they want”, is pure nonsense. Even though there is market rigging in the precious metals, the market prices are still close to the COST OF PRODUCTION.

      Bix Weir never seems to mention this important factor.

      steve

      • DisappearingCulture | January 10, 2019 at 10:47 am | Reply

        The Gold & silver manipulation is for preventing bull runs,to limit competition with fiat currencies [mainly gold & to a lesser extent silver]. And of course to keep the price of silver cheaper for industrial consumption. It would be a disaster [if they could] to push the price below price of production. And a bull run in fiat valuations of G & S would [will be or will coincide with] disaster to the current financial system.

  8. Probably the first time I’ve disagreed with you on here:

    ” Come on, without the bankers; most Americans couldn’t afford a car or home. I think a lot of people tend to forget that, as they blame the bankers for everything. ”

    Bankers suck wealth OUT of the system. They do not add value and they do not produce anything.
    Money managers move wealth about, they do not create it. They are parasites pure and simple.

    They take wealth away from us. And just as damaging, they destroy incentives. There are theoretical physics majors, math geniuses who waste their lives modelling financial products for Credit Suisse. Imagine those people were put to productive work. Imagine kids getting stuck into their education with a zeal for actually creating stuff. Today kids want to work for Goldman Sachs and it’s vile.

    As to the tax take? If banking was 5% of the economy as it should be, it would free up all these people to do real work in the real economy. We wold have a bigger economy. Can you imagine where we would be if the banking sector had never been greater than 5% of the economy?

    I dream for that day.

    • ian seed,

      You are only looking at ONE SIDE of the story. While bankers suck wealth, they also provide the ability for individuals to buy CARS, HOMES, and ETC that they would not be able to afford. Basically, at a fraction of the total cost… via payments. As the FALLING EROI has put a great deal of pressure on the affordability of the system, by the Central Banks lowering interest rates and Commercial Bankers provided cheap credit, it has allowed the system to continue.

      If not, we would have been in a DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION that we would never come out of. So, the Central Bankers and Commercial Bankers have allowed this highly unstable financial system to go a bit longer.

      When it finally crashes, it’s a world you may not want to live in.

      steve

      • Congratulations (I am serious), that’s nearly the fist time in gold “community” that somebody states that new financial claims (bonds, credit, stocks) are wealth in capitalism.

        • RD,

          You must remember your ECONOMICS 101. Wealth equals ASSETS – LIABILITIES. So, with all the $250+ trillion of debt in the world, most of the BONDS, REAL ESTATE, & STOCKS don’t really have much value.

          PHYSICAL GOLD & SILVER are one of the few assets not BACKED BY DEBT.

          steve

          • In addition, to my answer below, it is another very important issue indeed : what are exactly all these financial securities which are flying everywhere ?
            Your assumption that bonds, real estate and stocks are backed by debt is intersting is several way.
            First, it states that wealth is determined not by richness of some particular objects of the sensible world but as commodities build-up, which is clearly the case in capitalism.
            Secondly, I think you are making a wrong claim because you are taking the equation from the view of a single actor rather than considering both actors involved in dealing with financial claims/securities.
            These allow to anticipate future value, which should be created by the debtor or the company which has issued new stocks for example. Most of the financial securities are itselves commodities as exchanged on markets or used as collateral by banks and so on.
            So, their “value” is linked from the potential future value created by some hope bearers.
            This anticipated value is however perfectly fungible with “current” capital which is indeed “crystallized dead work” so that from the global system, the more stocks, bonds and financial claims are created the more global wealth (from capitalism as opposite to traditional richness) increases.
            So, I would say that financial securities are more backed by hope than debt (as debt is backed by hope that future value will be indeed created).
            Obviously, the fictious capital created through financial securities is not independant on the real world build-up but the connection between both is elastic in some way.
            As future value is far from sure and the more financial claims are created the more they are potentially subject to strong depreciation while gold/silver, as the previous general equivalent belonging to the real and sensible world, can/could regain some luster versus them.

  9. DisappearingCulture | January 10, 2019 at 10:01 am | Reply

    Posted above; some only read the latest post.
    Read this to get a succinct “snapshot” of the economy:
    http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-powell-helium-pump/

  10. Unstable Distortions

    Central banker’s figured out how to bail out the banks, and rebuild bank balance sheets by stripping hundreds of billions of dollars in interest from savers. Asset prices are no longer driven by the economy, but now drive the economy. Massive leverage is the root cause driving up asset prices, provided by the banking sector.
    Financial system distortions and instabilities have the stock markets in turmoil. In 2017 the DOW was either up or down by 1% or more just 8 times. In 2018 this has happened 64 times! This raised volatility is mostly due to central banks financial interventions in the market place.

    In the past banking was an honorable profession, whose primary mission was to facilitate commerce. This was accomplished by banks avoiding risk. Once financial regulations were gutted under Clinton’s administration, the risky global financial monstrosity that we see today was unleashed on the world. The unsuspecting majority of the population continued to be paralyzed by normalcy bias, cognitive dissonance, and the overwhelming propaganda from those in power. Banks no longer serve the private sector, except reluctantly. The face of the nation is going to change, and akin to most bad things, it will happen before people will realize it and can take action.

  11. Steve> You said ” While bankers suck wealth, they also provide the ability for individuals to buy CARS, HOMES, and ETC that they would not be able to afford. Basically, at a fraction of the total cost” When you say ability you are referring to credit. It is primarily what has gotten most of America in trouble. Most of these people shouldn’t be given credit. They can’t handle the payback responsibilities. It’s providing individuals with the ability to get into hock. This is not a solution for success but a sentence for serfdom.

    • slvrwllwn,

      Totally agreed about the credit getting Americans in trouble. However, there would be no economy without it. The days of buying items for cash have been long gone for 4-5+ decades. Please understand I am not defending the bankers, but if credit was pulled from Americans, they would be screaming bloody murder and the entire economy would crash, for which we would never recover.

      I am just pointing out the OTHER-SIDE of the STORY that seems to be missed by the COMPLAINERS.

      The Falling EROI has destroyed the ability to continue the normal economy. Thus, credit and debt had to be used so consumers can afford cars to drive to work and homes to live in or rent. The typical consumer can only afford a small monthly payment… the Falling EROI has done that.

      So, without the credit and debt, we would have no economy.

      steve

      • DisappearingCulture | January 11, 2019 at 5:50 am | Reply

        Totally agree and there the worldwide economy collapses without ever-increasing debt

        • It’s a catch 22. It will collapse with infinite credit or without credit. *They* think to keep their house of (fiat) cards together with the bogus 2% inflation “price stability”, when real inflation was more like 7% for the last few decades. This $u©k€® will blow up (implode) either way, only the path and timing to complete collapse is yet to be determined. Remember the adage “inflate or die”. I say “don’t inflate and die tomorrow, inflate and die more painfully later”. The only middle ground (a gold standard) was abandoned long ago and the coming reset (possibly going back to some sort of gold-backed or gold based system) will be very painful for all non-phyzz holders that will be left with a fiat paper bag.

      • IMO it has nothing to do with the falling EROI while it is still above 1, it has mainly to do with huge productivity rise following informatic/electronic/communication technologies revolution.

        • RD,

          Well… you see, you are talking total ignorance here. With all due respect, there is NO PRODUCTIVITY RISE with technology, it’s all cost, hidden in the multiple levels of technology. Unfortunately, you don’t understand the EROI or Thermodynamics. If you did, you wouldn’t have made that last comment.

          SIMPLE EROI MATH

          Hunter-Gatherer EROI = 10/1
          Simple Human Farmer EROI = 5/1
          Farming with Ox/Horse = 1-2/1
          Modern Agricultural System = 1/10

          If you understand the math above TECHNOLOGY doesn’t add productivity, IT DESTROYS IT.

          steve,

          • That’s one point of disagreement with you but I agree you are making some very interesting stuff to say the least !
            I think you are making a wrong call because you are making assumptions not from the point of view of the utility/use value and not from the exchange value which the determinant factor in capitalism, all others are either contingent or accessory.
            Where I can agree with you, is on the potential future limit and not on past limit.
            Where I disagree with you is because value in capitalism is based on abstract quantum of work in last instance (modulo prices and preferences mechanisms).
            For you, value IS energy and not just “linked/connected” like there is a link between fictious capital and capital issued from previous build-up).
            I think you are making this call because indeed in the real/sensible world, energy is indeed “everywhere” in some way.
            From the capitalism point of view : robotics increase productivity if they can decrease the average working time in order to produce a considered commodity/article/ware.
            One of the best example is car assemblage or agricultural output like cotton harvesting, which has dramatically fallen for the last few decades.

          • Erratum on the second sentence, instead :
            I think you are making a wrong call because you are making assumptions from the point of view of the utility/use value and not from the exchange value which the determinant factor in capitalism, all others are either contingent or accessory.

          • Steve,
            while there is A LOT to support your claim, that the decline in EROI is the root cause for slowing growth and that CBs with ZIRP etc. are postponing the inevitable, I wouldn’t subscribe to your theory, that technology destroys productivity. Looks like the ideology of a doomsday cult, that makes bad things even worde.

          • Andreas,

            If we measure “PRODUCTIVITY” only by superficial profits from a company or industry, then it makes sense that technology may increase efficiency in obtaining profits. However, if we measure gains made by technology in a system or economy, we must consider ALL ENERGY CONSUMED throughout the entire process. Through Joseph Tainter’s research, he has found evidence that “ALL” Complex societies fail due to problems with continued energy sources to maintain the system.

            I look at productivity at its ROOT CAUSE and that is the EROI or Thermodynamics. The High-Tech modern farming system today has not INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY on an EROI basis. Actually, it has done the exact opposite. However, it has allowed one farmer to do the work of 1,000’s just 100+ years ago. So, if you want to gauge productivity based on energy, which is by far the most important indicator, you must look at the EROI, not how much one person or one computer is able to do today versus 50+ years ago.

            Now, the indigenous Hawaiians were able to increase the EROI of food production to 100/1 by using Fish Ponds. So, they became much more efficient in raising food or protein than say a simple farmer using hand tools growing corn at an average EROI of 5/1.

            That is what I call INCREASED EROI PRODUCTIVITY.

            steve

          • Still wonder why hunther gatherer has so disappeared for a lesser productive system if the determining variable is just pure thermodynamics.
            When I wrote it was rising productivity which created the necessity to expand fictious capital (and to remove gold as the general equivalent commodity), it is not rising productivity per se, it is the resulting corresponding destruction of “living” work.

          • RD,

            I need to have patience when dealing with your replies, but I do so because it seems that you do not have the DATA or INFORMATION to come to the correct conclusions.

            MONOPOLIES like Wal Market destroyed the Mom & Pop Retail stores that were located in most Downtowns in the United States. Using your reasoning, we would say that the MOM & POP business model was overtaken by the more EFFICIENT and PRODUCTIVE Wal-Mart business model.

            FALSE…..

            Why? Without the high EROI of oil, Walmart would not have been possible. WalMart is not more efficient, it is a massive energy consumer.

            The reason Hunter-Gatherers (EROI 10/1) were taken over by first simple farmers (EROI 5/1), then farmers with Ox-Horse (1-2/1 EROI) and lastly the Modern High Tech Agricultural & Distribution System (EROI 1/10), WAS NOT DUE TO WISDOM, but rather SHORT-SIGHTED INTELLECTUAL SELFISH GAINS.

            You do know the difference between WISDOM and INTELLIGENCE… correct?

            Because the planet provided plenty of forests to FELL and LANDS to turn into food production, humans could move to less EROI productive sources. They used wood and then coal, oil, and natural gas (mostly) to POWER the transition to even lower EROI Productive systems.

            However, when OIL PEAKS, then the entire SYSTEM is in jeopardy. There is no PLAN B.

            steve

          • “EFFICIENT and PRODUCTIVE” : no, that is not I meant.
            You continue to identify efficient and productive issue through a sole thermodynamic prism, I said capitalism just did not care : whether I think Walmart is good or bad, energy efficient or not (surely not indeed !) is useless as it happened and for a good reason, and it looks it was possible.
            Current system indeed requires “cheap” (abundant) hyrdocarbons energy but UP TO NOW (tomorrow is another issue), it has not been an issue.
            “WAS NOT DUE TO WISDOM, but rather SHORT-SIGHTED INTELLECTUAL SELFISH GAINS” : that kind of “judgement” reminds me some variation of the disembodied Emmanuel Kant’s Categorical Imperative where thermodynamics fetichism would take the center of the stage !
            Joke aside, I think you do not have the “data” to write such sentence regarding with prehistory people, you will surely be interested by this famous Marshall Sahlins’ book : Stone Age Economics.

  12. Hi Steve, i would really appreciate it if you could respond to my question with all those years of research, knowledge and expertise that you gained. I think its time for me to ask the right questions in these unique times we live in.

    I live in the UK, and im quessing you live in the USA. My question is you mentioned above in your comment “when it finally crashes, it’s a world you may not want to live in.”

    When do you think it will crash that will make it the world i don’t want to live in here in the UK? I think It started already unravel and the crash will happen sometime in 2020. What do you think will happen?

    Thank you

    • Abdi,

      Hard to tell the timing of the CRASH that our economy will never recover. This is due to the FALLING EROI of energy.

      I believe the next recession-depression will start to take place this year. If the Central Banks try to prop up the falling markets and economy with my Liquidity and debt, it will only postpone the inevitable in my opinion, by 2-5 years at most.

      By 2025-2030, the world will look like a much different place.

      steve

  13. Steve i also believe the next recession-depression will start to take place this year or the the next latest all the signs are there.

    Now the main question is how long can the Central Banks postpone the inevitable? What if shale oil has already peaked and the legacy declines can’t keep anymore and shale oil starts declining. My best guess is they can postpone it 2-3 years at most.

  14. Steve! A question for later perhaps.

    What effect do you think this will all have on the up and coming 5G network?

    I thought I saw the other day a news item that said RANGE ROVER sales where down 50% specifically the diesel models. RANGE ROVER production models are predominately (90%) diesel. People are now switching to petrol. The CEO’s obviously never saw this downturn coming.

    So.….. could this happen to the 5G network?

  15. I am amazed when I read some of the comments in such a way as to see how little the monetary system is understood.

    No, this money system leads to extreme accumulation of capital and big super corporations, which exploit workers after remaining. I experience it again in a project where an American grasshopper(AAM group) attacked a small middle class company in the Black Forest.

    Those who still defend these banks and big concerts have not yet understood the debt money system.

    • The Great Reset Approaches

      Fragile markets now sit on the edge of chaos.
      A market crash is incubating and the cliff is near.
      High risk of critical transition –
      Transformative corrective actions of the market structure systems is inevitable.
      This is the unintended consequence of extreme experimental monetary policy making.

      Those suffering from cognitive dissonance have recently used convenient failed excuses such as: – Imploding oil price, trade wars, rising interest rates, end of QE and start of QT, Fed policy, etc. Anything other than facing the present economic reality that the markets have expired. The End.

    • Stephan Vogt,

      I am not DEFENDING the BANKS, but I do believe that most people in the Alt-Media only LOOK AT ONE SIDE OF THE STORY. The notion that the elite used the Debt-based monetary system to take control of more assets, especially after market crashes, IS OLD FRICKEN NEWS that should have been thrown into the dust bin years ago.

      Continuing the lousy conspiracy theories of the ELITE CONTROL is a complete waste of time for people who have much bigger issues to be concerned.

      If the Elite entities still believe in acquiring vast amounts of STOCKS, BONDS & REAL ESTATE for future gains or revenue streams, they will be in for a SERIOUS AWAKENING when most of that stuff becomes increasingly worthless in a FALLING EROI environment.

      steve

      • I remember reading in one of “Jim Rickards” books where he stated, “He a mate who had three PhD’s and lectured all over the world (something like that) and still didn’t understand our monetary system”!

        Quote; REED SIMPSON, M.Sc., Banker and Developer

        “I have been a banker for most of my career, and I can report that
        even most bankers are not aware of what goes on behind closed doors
        at the top of their fi eld. Bankers tend to their own corner of the banking
        business, without seeing the big picture or the ramifi cations of the
        whole system they are helping to perpetuate. I am more familiar than
        most with the issues raised in Ellen Brown’s book Web of Debt, and I
        still found it to be an eye-opener, a remarkable window into what is
        really going on.”

        And it is worth noting from the same book;

        “The process by which money comes into existence is thoroughly
        misunderstood, and for good reason: it has been the focus of a highly
        sophisticated and long-term disinformation campaign that permeates
        academia, media, and publishing. The complexity of the subject has been
        intentionally exploited to keep its mysteries hidden. Henry Ford said
        it best: “It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”

        So Steve, when you refer to “ELITE ENITIES”, I can believe their ignorance on this subject as is the case with most people (that is us) as opposed to a conspiracy.

        KENNETH BOULDING said; “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist”.
        https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Kenneth_Boulding

        I WILL SAY IT AGAIN!
        THE FLAW IN OUR MONETARY SYSTEM IS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH.IT HAS REACHED ITS LIMITATIONS AND DEGROWTH SHOULD FOLLOW IF THIS MONETARY SYSTEM IS TO REMAIN.

        An example of DEGROWTH in the west are our country towns. That contagion is now affecting our cities. You don’t have to look too far to see it.

  16. Steve looks like you called where these markets would retest the 25 Day Average. Now that for 2 days we closed just off those levels, where do you see the markets going in the next few weeks?

  17. Steve,

    The banksters lowering interest rates, manipulating key indicators and commodities has allowed the system to continue. I’ll agree with you on that. But the time bought has come at great cost, and it’s not simply the misallocation of capital and the destruction of capital. It has facilitated the destruction of self reliance, common sense and culture as well as putting the nation itself at risk.

    I’ve studded technical analysis, it has its place. But I’ll remain focused on the fundamentals, of which EROI is key, plus the illegal and immoral market manipulations. No apologies there. And I applaud those that continue to expose conspiracy at great risk.

    Last, I bought and read The Hill’s Group report on thermodynamic collapse. Excellent work. But I found its equating lower value feedstock (due to collapsing EROI) with a lower FRN price to be incomplete, unnecessary and potentially incorrect. It remains my contention that we will dance the crude contango.

  18. Steve,
    thanks for your reply.
    Re productivity I don’t accept your premises, beginning from your definition of productivity (“EROI p. as the one and only p.”)and ending with Tainters “Collapse”, which is an archeological study in ancient societies with growing sociopolitical complexity, but negligable productivity growth.
    And of course I would not measure productivity in fiat money terms.
    But let us keep it at that and agree to disagree here.
    Could you please provide a reference for the 1:10-EROI of our modern agricultural system, if you have it at hand?!
    Many thanks, Andreas

  19. discussion about the great problem the next years

    Warren Bufett are the perpetrators of the migration of peoples to Europe. Buffet was then asked by the NJ-Times what the central conflict of our time would be, and he replied: “It is war, rich against poor, and my class, the class of the rich has started this war and will win it too”. The weapon in this war is the credit system as a misdemeanor. Yes yes – cleverly arranged . Debts ? “We don’t pay back – when we need money we get something new” (Hans Eichel). The Schäubele has said something similar, e.g.: ” It is not planned at all that debts will be paid back “.
    This uncovered counterfeit money system is Satan!

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