SILVER BREAKOUT CONTINUES: Next Important Key Levels

While the silver price has broken above the symmetrical triangle formation, it still has a few key levels to surpass to continue its upward trend.  However, it was crucial for silver to first break above rather than below the symmetrical triangle to be able to remain in a bullish direction.

So, we have to take one positive silver price action at a time and look at the next technical levels.  First, we can clearly see that silver broke upward above the Symmetrical Triangle formation:

We must remember, silver needs to close above the upper Symmetrical Triangle line by the end of July for it to be a Breakout.  If you look at the monthly candlesticks in July & August 2016 (chart below), while silver shot above the blue dashed line, it did not close above it.  Actually, the silver price closed at the end of July & August 2016 right at the upper Symmetrical Triangle formation line.

Second, if silver can close above this upper Symmetrical Triangle line by the end of July, it would also have to push above the 50 Month Moving Average (MMA @ $16.22), shown in the chart below:

If you look at both charts, the silver price has not closed above the 50 MMA (BLUE LINE) since early 2013.  Furthermore, each time silver tried to surpass the 50 MMA since 2016; it closed below it.  So, the next important key level for silver is the 50 MMA at $16.22.  If would need to close above this level for a bullish trend to remain.

And, once silver is able to close above the $16.22 (50 MMA) level, it will need to break the 200 Month Moving Average (RED LINE) of $16.76.  These are the two next important levels for silver to close above, ON A MONTHLY BASIS.  Thus, silver needs to close at the end of July or August above these levels to be able to reach the next MAJOR KEY BREAKOUT LEVEL of $21.35-$21.50.

AFTER-HOURS UPDATE: Both silver and gold looked strong today as both closed nicely higher today.  Silver also surpassed the next important key level, the 50 Month Moving Average at $16.22, and  Gold was up $20 today.  We could be finally seeing the next leg of the Gold-Silver Bull Market after a 5-year consolidation phase.

However, the metals could experience a pullback first.  We just have to wait and see what happens over the next 10 days of trading, as both gold and silver much close above these key levels at the end of the month.

While the technical levels that I have mentioned in both Gold and Silver bring in more traders, investors, hedge funds, and institutional buying, it was due to the fundamentals of FED SOFTENING on its monetary policy that was the underlying cause.  By the Fed changing its monetary policy to lowering interest rates and cutting back on its balance sheet liquidation, that was all that was needed to give the much-needed PUSH above those KEY LEVELS.

I will be discussing this in detail in the upcoming Youtube video.

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4 oz
Guest
4 oz

Nice work Steve.

Todd DeWire
Guest
Todd DeWire

Silver?! I’m all in on the new FaceCoin. It’s the one with Zuck’s picture on it!

houtskool
Guest
houtskool

Did you notice that, thrown into the air, it always lands face down? Quite useful in certain games.

john J
Guest
john J

Buffet bought 25 billion dollars of Silver at 3/4/5 dollars an oz. He started selling when got to high. Now it seems to have a ceiling about $16-$18. Sure he has alot to sell off. I don’t think silver is a long term buy. When price went through the roof companies re-openned silver mines as price leveled / then dropped they re closed. Might get a pop. But nothing like the bubble we saw before.

DisappearingCulture
Guest
DisappearingCulture

You may have some facts confused. 25 billion dollars of physical silver bought at around $4 per ounce…I doubt that much physical would have been available. Second, if anyone had that much physical silver they would need a Fed of COMEX sized vault. Whatever dollar value he had of silver, I bet it wasn’t physical silver in his possession. BTW, closed mines take years to get back in operation, if it’s worth it by that time. Silver is a GREAT long-term buy. The dissatisfaction is from people that bought at a higher point [in the run-down from the 2011 high]… Read more »

Giorgio
Guest
Giorgio

25 billions, sure… no big deal: at 5 usd just 11 years of world production… (back then about 450 million ounces ).
In 1997/98 Buffett bought 130 moz and that silver is long gone.

Cobah.
Guest
Cobah.

Fresnillo,second quarter report(30 june 2019)
First half silver production down 10.4%.
http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/fresnillo2/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=191&newsid=1314959

Additional 3 Moz of silver reduction for the second half for Fresnillo.
https://www.bnamericas.com/es/noticias/fresnillo-apostara-por-excelentes-minas-mexicanas-pese-a-problemas
(Spanish)

argyria
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argyria

I wonder if the ongoing collapse of DB is part of this rapid ascent??
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-settlement-silver-idUSKBN12H2HB

Shamus
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Shamus

That article is nearly 3 years old. I’m sure whatever fines they paid out for manipulation, it’s effects are long gone.

Reed
Guest
Reed

False rally.

Au/Ag to test 1250/14.50 USD

DisappearingCulture
Guest
DisappearingCulture

If you were close to me I’d make a bet in escrow you are wrong in that prediction.

Big Silver
Guest

Recently, a very experienced and wise Swiss gentleman made the prediction that gold will never again move below 1250 in his lifetime. I wholeheartedly agree with him.

Big Silver
Guest

Sorry, I misquoted. Make that $1,350.

Joe M
Guest
Joe M

Silver just hit $16.36 today. Broke through with authority. Looking good so far!

DisappearingCulture
Guest
DisappearingCulture

Everyone, including teenagers, has heard of gold as one or more of the following: valuable, precious, worth a lot of cash, an investment, money, internationally valuable, etc. For many, silver is not or has never been in their consciousness as a possible valuable thing to buy or hold or invest in. Maybe it got their attention when it ran up in 2011, but the stock markets were moving up as well. For those benefiting [getting richer] from the current [manipulated, flawed, corrupt] system, silver is an Achilles heel. I’m hoping it breaks it’s high of around $20.35 on 8/1/16 ASAP.… Read more »

DisappearingCulture
Guest
DisappearingCulture

Steve, A reader of your previous article wrote: “Professional traders base their positions on 80% fundamental analysis and only 20% technicals. Only high frequency trading is based purely on technicals. See Anton Kreil’s presentation on youtube.” To which you replied: “You are correct in regards to professional traders. However, the majority of the market is controlled by algorithms that do the majority of the work for the larger hedge funds and institutions.” Can you comment in general on the role of buyers/investors coming into the silver marketplace, buying physical for delivery into their possession [instead of as much going into… Read more »

Thomas Malthaus
Guest

Different emphasis on US oil production for now. Where do the US rank and how many millions of barrels are produced daily of other than shale oil? How much does Alaska produce and then the lower 48 states? How much comes from offshore drilling?

Doc Rich
Guest
Doc Rich

Thomas,
Alaska produces about 500,000 BPD. Gulf of Mexico(GOM) produces about 1.8 Million BPD. Total Conventional US oil production is about 5 Million BPD. So roughly 7 Million BPD is from shale oil. A lot of it is junk oil, IE high API gravity which is the reason much of it it exported as our refineries are geared up for heavy(Low API) oil. The US actually ranks as the worlds number one producer although this will not last for long. Hope that helps.

Thomas Malthaus
Guest

Thanks, Doc.
My point in asking was the US doesn’t produce enough medium grade oil to run even a faltering economy. To avoid the black hole and rejigger to higher GDP levels and maintain currency “viability and hyperinflation” without admitting they exist, Venezuela, Iran, Russia and other oil-producing nations will have to “cooperate.”

Seven million barrels of domestic medium grade-to higher grade oil production won’t cut.

I could make a case that illegal aliens only add to this energy debt, but I’m an insensitive lout.

Sean
Guest
Sean

Silver closed with a red candle stick on the hourly. I am expecting a slight rest period heading into the weekend for silver. But will see how the SLV ETF starts tomorrow morning.

OutLookingIn
Guest
OutLookingIn

Throw More Paper At It! Silvers overall open interest stands in excess of 230,000 contracts. For the first three days of this week, has seen 16,000 more paper shorts added in order to keep silver from rallying hard. With both gold and silver now being monkey-hammered this morning, I imagine the amount of open interest (shorts) being added will be sizeable to force down the bid price. Looking forward to seeing the end of day trading report. Something tells me, in time these shorts are going to handed their heads! When? Who knows? Thats the chief mystery of the market… Read more »

OutLookingIn
Guest
OutLookingIn

More Paper – True To Form

Those contracts standing for physical delivery were delivered and thusly taken down from the board. The shorts that covered and retreated (too hot) at 1,703 were made to pay off (big time) and withdrawn.
Yet, 14,764 more shorts were added to smash the bid price, in an attempt to force the longs to give up their positions. No such luck. Too bad! This brings the total amount of open interest to 234,220. I wonder how many more shorts are going to be handed their heads before giving up?

DisappearingCulture
Guest
DisappearingCulture

Some well funded/backstopped entities, possibly including those that can create digital (or physically printed) currency, may pile in on the short side to slow down the price increase (reign in the bull).

OutLookingIn
Guest
OutLookingIn

An Old Wall Street Axiom

“He who sells what isn’t his’n goes to prison”.

With COMEX silver open interest sitting at 234,220 contracts (one contract is 5,000 ounces) this is far more paper silver ounces, then currently exists in physical silver in all the COMEX warehouses!
Redemption (in physical bullion) of fully paid for silver contracts is picking up speed. Once settlement reverts to cash instead of the physical, that is a defacto default.
Then watch what happens to the price of not only silver, but everything else, because the dollar won’t be worth the paper it’s printed on!

From Canada Eh
Guest
From Canada Eh

3 Silver stocks already breaking out to new 52 week highs; AG, SSRM, and SVM

EP
Guest
EP

From Canada Eh Sprott’s old silver fund is up 18.72% ytd. But those are nicer charts than a fund.

From Canada Eh
Guest
From Canada Eh

AG (First Majestic Silver) already launching like the Space Shuttle… massive bullish candle made last week on the weekly chart.