MARKET DATA PROVES: Overwhelming Public Demand For Silver Eagles…. Not JP Morgan

According to global market data from the top Official Mints, sales of Silver Eagles  originate overwhelmingly from public retail investment demand rather than by one large bank… such as JP Morgan.  I say this in response to the allegation put forth by silver analyst, Ted Butler who believes JP Morgan purchased half of all Silver Eagles since April, 2011.

Ted Butler, who has made this claim over the past several months, does so again in his recent article, The Perfect Crime.  Butler states the following:

For starters, there is the matter of extraordinary sales of Silver Eagles from the US Mint. Since April 2011, the US Mint has produced and sold 140 million Silver Eagles, more than in any similar period of time, in a price environment that can only be termed putrid and in which sales of Gold Eagles were notably lower. I would estimate that JPMorgan purchased close to half of the 140 million Silver Eagles sold since April 2011. According to very reliable sources on the retail front, general investment demand has been lower over this time, as retail buyers do not buy strongly into a declining price environment in any investment asset. Yet we know for a fact that there has been extraordinary buying of Silver Eagles, even while Gold Eagle sales cooled off notably, so someone had to be buying Silver Eagles.

Butler assumes JP Morgan purchased half of the 140 million Silver Eagles produced since April, 2011… and he believes this to be true because “According to very reliable sources, general investment demand has been lower over this time.”

This is where I disagree with Butler.  Now, let me start off by saying it was Ted Butler’s writing back in the early 2000’s that motivated me to start buying silver.  So, I have a lot of respect for Ted as he was one of the leading silver analysts writing about the shiny metal well before it became on the public’s radar.

While I believe there is significant manipulation in the precious metals markets (including most other markets) by member banks, I do not agree with Butler that JP Morgan purchased nearly half of all Silver Eagles since 2011… and I believe I have the market evidence to support my claim.

Top 3 Official Coin Sales Support Broad Based Public Demand

If we look at the top 3 Official Coin sales since 2008, we can see a similar overall trend.  Let’s first take a look at the U.S. Mint sales in the chart below:

U.S. Mint Silver Eagle Sales 2008-2013

As the price of silver skyrocketed, U.S. Mint Silver Eagle sales increased from 19.5 million in 2008 to 39.8 million in 2011.  However, as the price of silver declined and remained flat in 2012, demand for Silver Eagles fell 15% to 33.7 million.  Then in 2013, U.S. Mint sales hit a new record of 42.6 million as investors took advantage of sub $20 silver.

Butler alleges that as JP Morgan drove down the price, it purchased half of all Silver Eagles at a steal.  Well, if this was the case, then who was buying record sales of Silver Philharmonics and Silver Maples??   If we take a look at the next two charts, we can clearly see a similar trend in these two 0fficial silver coin sales:

Canadian Silver Maple Leaf Sales 2008-2013

Austrian Silver Philharmonic Sales 2008-2013

Sales of Silver Canadian Maples and Austrian Philharmonics increased steadily from 2008 to 2011, declined in 2012 and then shot back up in 2013.  So, if JP Morgan allegedly bought half of all Silver Eagles since 2011, who was propping up sales of Silver Maples and Silver Philharmonics?

Furthermore, Canadian Silver Maple Leaf sales in the first three-quarters of 2014 hit a new record of 20.8 million compared to 20.7 million during the same period last year.  However, Silver Eagle sales declined from 36.1 million Q1-Q3 2013 to 32.2 million Q1-Q3 2014.

If JP Morgan was buying half of the 32.2 million Silver Eagles from Jan-Sept of 2014, then who was buying the record 20.8 million Canadian Maples??  While Silver Eagle sales were weaker than Maples in the first nine months of the year, they have picked up significantly in the fourth quarter reaching a new annual record of 44 million.

Now, by combining the sales of the top three Official Silver Coins, we can see how the annual changes in the top three, were quite similar:

Top 3 Official Coin Sales 2008-2013

All three official coin sales moved in the same fashion…. up from 2008-2011, a decline in 2012 and then up again in 2013.  While 2013 Silver Philharmonic sales did not surpass the record set in 2011, this was probably due to investors choosing Canadian Silver Maples with one of the lowest premiums of all official coins.

As we can see, the market sales data proves that all the top three Official Silver coin sales moved in tandem since 2011.  I believe the public was the overwhelming factor in purchasing Silver Eagles… not JP Morgan.

In addition, India’s silver imports increased from 2009-2011, declined significantly in 2012 and then picked up again in 2013.  Furthermore India’s silver imports, along with record Silver Eagle and Maple sales, will reach an estimated record of 7,500 metric tons in 2014.  Was JP Morgan also buying Indian Silver???

Top Internet Coin Dealers Confirm Higher Silver Eagle Sales

Ted Butler states that he has reliable sources stating that overall retail investment demand is lower, proving that JP Morgan is the large Silver Eagle buyer.  I decided to contact some of the large Online Precious Metal Dealers to see if their Silver Eagle sales have in fact declined since 2011.

I contacted APMEX, JM Bullion, Gainesville Coin and SilverDoctors.  Three got back with me (APMEX failed to return my call in time of publication) and supported the market data that public demand for Silver Eagles increased over the past three years along with the rise of sales at the U.S. Mint.

JM Bullion and SilverDoctors let me know that they deal with some of the Authorized Dealers (who purchase Silver Eagles directly from the U.S. Mint), and they would have mentioned that JP Morgan was buying half of their Silver Eagle allotments since 2011.

JM Bullion, Gainesville Coin and Silver Doctors all agreed that the public has been buying increasing numbers of Silver Eagles, especially on the dips, since 2011.  While demand for standard silver bullion may not be as robust as it was in 2011, it seems as if investors are purchasing more LEGAL TENDER SILVER COINS, especially Silver Eagles and Silver Maples.

If JP Morgan was buying half of all Silver Eagles since 2011, as Butler suggests, then we would have seen a decline in sales of Silver Philharmonics and Silver Maples.  Not only have sales of Silver Maples hit new record of 20.8 million Q1-Q3 2014, they will likely be quite strong in last three months of 2014… even with rationing due to the huge take-down in the price of silver on Halloween and into the first week of November.

I wanted to provide a rebuttal to Butler’s allegation that JP Morgan was the large buyer of Silver Eagles because his opinion takes CREDIT AWAY FROM THE PUBLIC, and puts it in the hands of the BANKERS.  While Ted Butler provides excellent information on the silver market, I believe his opinion on this matter is incorrect.

One last thing… Butler states the “putrid sales of Gold Eagles compared to Silver Eagles” as another factor proving that JP Morgan was the big silver buyer.  While it’s true that Gold Eagle sales have declined significantly since 2011, so have Gold Maple Leaf sales.  Matter-a-fact, Gold Maple Leaf sales are down 46% in the first nine months of 2014 compared to the same period last year… even though sales of Silver Maples continue into record territory.

As these three Official Coin Retail Dealers agreed, its the public taking advantage of lower silver prices by adding metal to their investment holdings.  This also includes WEALTHY PRIVATE BUYERS who purchase silver in large lots.

We must remember, the buying of Official Silver Coins is from a very small motivated percentage of the public.  Can you imagine what will happen when 98% of the public realizes they have invested in FINANCIAL PAPER ASSETS that have no future?

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35 Comments on "MARKET DATA PROVES: Overwhelming Public Demand For Silver Eagles…. Not JP Morgan"

  1. Steve,

    I agree with your assessment of ASE sales. The lack of gold eagle sales over the past few years is most likely due to people selling back into the secondary market. I think many are switching to a higher percentage of (more affordable) silver coins in their PM holdings. And then there is the 800 pound gorilla — the Permanent Fund. 20% of this fund is comprised of physical gold and most of that is in the form of one ounce Eagles/Maples. The fund has had a lot of redemptions over the past few years and so it has had to pare back it’s gold holdings. Since it’s peak one-ounce gold coin holdings of 1,400,000 Gold Eagles/Maples on 7/31/2012 it has sold back 750,000 coins into the secondary market — 330,000 in just the past year ending 10/31/2014. It’s obvious that this kind of supply competition would put a crimp in the sales of newly minted coins.

    • That should be 650,000 sold back vs 750,000. My bad. I need to proof read first, then hit send.

    • Great !
      Now could you put that goofie little troll Harvey Organ in his place?
      Much appreciated.I’m so sick of these dumasses with their theories that cost people money & anxiety.

  2. Spot on analysis. Ted Butler provided useful information at one point, but seems to have gone off the deep end along with those that worship at his alter, such as Ed Steer. Everything is JP Morgan manipulation, even when sales are increasing. Sheesh. Nice to see someone using a little common sense instead of just following the ideas of the same couple of silver analysts. Keep up the good work!

  3. Why wouldn’t JP Morgan also load up on Maples and Philharmonics? If they are going to load up on physical why limit it to a Eagles? JPM knows better than anyone what is coming and I don’t think they are going to be selective in what kind of silver they hold.

    • AK,

      As I mentioned also in the article, the Online Precious Metal Sites let me know that they purchase directly from the Authorized Dealers, in which they have a relationship. Basically, they talk shop. If JP Morgan was purchasing half of all the allotment of Silver Eagles… this information would be known.

      Not one of the Precious Metal Dealers believed JP Morgan was buying the silver. Instead their sales show that investors are buying more Silver Eagles than ever.


      • Steve,
        Agreed provided that JP Morgan would be transparent about the purchases. However, since they clearly are manipulating the paper price I think it is safe to assume that they don’t want anyone to know that they are accumulating the physical on the cheap. After all that would be the perfect crime as Ted Butler has called it.

        • I JPM was loading up on physical silver, they would stack 1000 oz bricks instead due to minimum premium and less handling. One 1000 oz = 2 monster boxes.

          • Thank you Steve for looking into this. What you present makes sense.


            You are probably right and I have been hearing hints they are stacking the 1,000 ounce bars. I’m betting they have their own mining and refining sources for these bars. A shortage or rationing or release delay of ASE’s may have no relationship to supply chain of these 1,000 ounce bars that public investors rarely see let alone buy.

        • On March 24, 2000, Ted Butler tried to get Kodak to stockpile silver to have advantage over Fuji Film. The ploy did not work— In another item, he tried to help senior banking execs slide out of responsibility by blaming the silver price depression on junior execs at trading desks (ridiculous). Now comes this item on Eagles. Ted has a history of trying to stir the pot to see if it will boil over. I strongly suggest this is his motive today.

  4. I’m with you and believe it’s the public buying the coins, as I would imagine JP to purchase by the ton. It’s validating to see record purchases, regardless where it comes from. Thanks for the facts, stay on it.

  5. Only 60/40 with you here Steve. jamie the weasel and the squid are too rich
    and powerful to just do the obvious.There must be many ,many ways to deceive the industry
    that never see the light of day.

    Happy New Year to you and yours,and the readers here.

  6. Purely on faith in my fellowman’s inherent wisdom, I lean toward the public’s ‘Invisible Hand’ at work here. Moreover, I pray JPM gets caught extremely short when the banknote scheme reaches the point of self-combustion. Every day that people put their savings into the form of silver, the temperature is raised just a little more.

  7. I doubt that JP Morgan is that big a buyer. Along with Goldman Sacks, Citi etc. they are the
    manipulators. Why would they invest in Silver Eagle when they are forecasting $17.00 spot
    silver for 2015. And in some articles silver will be lower in 2016. They are also hired by
    Shanghai as consultants for the physical silver market. Since China imports more than it
    produces, I think we can all say silver isn’t heading higher any time soon. Forecasting silver
    this low by JP Morgan would make silver a poor investment for them.

    • @ Joe,

      JPM is stockpiling silver for the future. They know as well as anyone that one day the paper markets will implode and that they will need tangible assets as collateral to dig themselves out of a massive hole. I’m sure they are stockpiling a lot more than silver and in the meantime they will do whatever they can to continue to drive down the paper price so that they can accumulate the underlying assets on the cheap.

  8. Looking at a silver lining, prices for silver are poised to end the year at their lowest year-end closing price since 2008. This will cause the miners to bring even more silver to market during 2015. My prediction is silver production will reach a new all time high next year. So what is the silver lining? Simple, as these mining exec’s continue to drive their businesses into the ground it sets up the mother of all short squeezes sometime in the next few years. Will not be 2015 or 2016, but sometime thereafter. 2017 is my bet. So be patient, you have ample time to buy silver. These mining guys are giving it away now but they will give away even more….

  9. I also was disturbed to read Ted’s opinion on JPM and the Eagles. Other points remain to be made, and here are some of them. 1) Over the length of Ted’s career, he has never demonstrated an understanding that paper is not valid money, nor that we should give metals remonetization the chance it deserves and 2) Ted’s article has this definite flaw—if JPM were buying large amounts of Eagles, it would have obtained them direct from Treasury—JPM is too big a fish to buy from authorized middlemen and 3) Can it be demonstrated that JPM has been acquiring large blocks of stock in silver miners whose leverage to silver exceeds the one to one ratio of physical? If JPM wanted to benefit from a price rise, why would they not load up on beneficiary shares? and 4) JPM would get silver from smelters/refiners—in other words, “upstream” of the Treasury—and 5) The long history of JPM and its many antecedent banks—Equitable Trust—Chemical Bank—Bank of Manhattan—Chase National—JP Morgan & Company—shows these people have a motive to suppress silver prices in order to profit from a fiat dollar monopoly in the Federal Reserve. Low silver, low gold—low oil—suggest a strong dollar, and that has been their cash cow. At some point JPM and its peers like HSBC may really go long silver. Has it happened yet? Where is Ted’s documentation? I did not see any, and I read his brief article four times. Unfortunately, there is the aspect many of us may be aware of in commentary, that fact presentation and documentation alone isn’t the sole criteria of credibility—people are rated by informal popularity analysis. Facts and popularity may not always agree and in this case they assuredly do not. I can also state that it was Ted’s writings that motivated me to write about silver (and gold) but of course, from another vantage point. If JPM has a large silver stash that’s undocumented, it’s far more probable that they got it from “out of view” sources, of which there may be many. One good for instance—in “Treasury Silver Today” in the Commercial & Financial Chronicle, November 17, 1966, page 1757, it mentions that 65 million ounces of silver was on loan to the Atomic Energy Commission. I have never found any info as to the ultimate disposition of that particular stash, but such stockpiles are the main reason silver has been kept in check. However, borrowing from past production and demonetized coin is a finite resource. Let’s see if this SRS response article gets equal coverage with Ted’s at all the usual sites. If not, another confirmation of the “popularity first, documented facts distant second” issue will unpleasantly greet the community.

  10. We are at a point and time where speculation can run wild. All information gathered must be discerned into logic. That said, logic states that silver demand is increasing.

  11. The metals markets are always seen through a glass darkly. I read Ted Butlers piece and found myself surprised that JPM might buy expensive eagles when 1000oz bars are cheaper. Then again of course JPM could easily aborb the aditional premiums which can be paid for in fiat – and the FED would print lots of that for them for free. I guess they would then melt the eagles down into 1000 oz bars..Of course if it was JPM that was stupid enough to buy (or attempts to buy) the 2.2M eagles around the end of November (was it?) that would be a big semi-public signal that supplies of silver were so low – and that JPM knows yet still shorts! That would likely get out.

    My guess is the physical market might not be quite so tight (or was quite as tight) as such Eagle buying might imply.

    • “My guess is the physical market might not be quite so tight (or was quite as tight) as such Eagle buying might imply.”

      I agree. As one example the source[s] for 1,000 ounce good delivery bars used by the Comex are very separate from the blanks for ASE production.

      As Charles says above: “4) JPM would get silver from smelters/refiners—in other words, “upstream” of the Treasury”

  12. How do we know maybe JP Morgan has been buying Silver Maple Leaf and Silver Plilharmonics, as well as Silver Eagles. May be they have a crap more Silver

  13. JP Morgan indeed could have bought silver, but will buy 1000 ounce bullion instead of silver eagle.They bought silver when it is cheap and will sell it in the future when price skyrocket.

  14. Great comments everyone!!! There are a tremendous amount of great argumentations.

    A regular reader to Ted Butler’s articles would also note that the sale of ASE’s are such a minute part of his overall analysis. The US Mint’s numbers are less than 5% of the total 2013 Silver Supply of 978.1 million ounces according to the Silver Institute. In his articles he almost mentions it “in passing” and is reluctant to speculate on subjective data, but does fit nicely into the JPM’s silver hoard theory.

    Mr. Butler suggest he is perplexed by the lack of mention of the huge COMEX warehouse silver turnover averaging 5 million oz per week, which annually is approximately 25% of the world’s total annual supply. 2014 silver turnover at COMEX warehouses is the highest on record. Movement of 1,000 oz silver bars are expensive and time consuming to move for no legitimate reason. Therefore, is suggestive of extremely tight wholesale silver supply.

    It does sound illogical JPM would buy ASE’s due to their small size and high premiums; however, given the tightness of the wholesale silver supply, anyone with knowledge of a potential silver shortage may wish to accumulate the most recognized silver coin in the world.

  15. The PM markets, including bullion sales is as transparent as mud.
    It does seem a waste (even a 0% int) to buy bullion coin in such quantities if you wanted a “corner” on the physical. Bars would make more sense as noted by a number of those posting.

    That said, I don’t share the view in this posting that since all bullion issuance/sales in countries mentioned “prove/show” that JPM isn’t up to something in Eagles. They easily with their global presence and “minions” could be doing anything, anywhere.

    Not buying directly from the Treasury maintains a degree of deniability for the USG.

    That said, why did JPM just purchase Deutschbank’s Bullion Depository/Vault in London, which the DB put up for sale as it has gotten out the PM biz?

    Why would you buy a depository vault? JPM can always use the Fed as countries do for their PM’s.
    They are no longer the biggest short of silver on the COMEX according to the COT report, but are short….and very, very long gold.

    I really don’t know what’s going on with silver buying, and if I stop 100 people on my street and ask if they hold ANY PM, the answer is no, unless “some coins were left to them.”

    Ted’s points of view are simply another data point to help me make by PM purchase decisions. Not saying he’s spot on with his point of view on JPM and Eagles, but this article doesn’t refute it.

  16. Save_America1st | December 31, 2014 at 5:34 pm |

    I want to agree with you Steve, cuz that’s some great analysis that Ted didn’t take into consideration (at least not in the writing of his recent article).
    But I will also go with Ted’s theory as well. Why can’t you both be right? Maybe the Morg was buying up Eagles while some other big time “buy of size” was buying up the other supplies, right? Maybe it’s a cartel conspiracy? We all know these bankster scumbags conspire to commit fraud, treason, and other crimes against humanity, right?

    So before I had read your article above (which is excellent as usual), I had read Ted’s article and I posted it on ZH for “us stackers”.

    Then after the fact I found your article. After reading it I found it to be completely plausible given your history of coming up with great statistical analysis and interpretation of the data that’s available.

    So then I uploaded your article with another post under my original about Ted’s so that the ZH’ers could see and read about both theories.

    My 2nd post with your article link on the ZH article is here:

    But my conclusion regarding the analysis from both Ted and you is still really the same…..

    Whoever is hoarding silver…be it “us”, the public…the JP Morg…or even other buyers of size…still just means one thing: KEEP STACKING!!!

    We know due to the paper manipulation that they’re taking advantage by hoarding cheap phyzz at discounts. Well that’s what those few of us who are stackers are taking advantage of as well.

    What we know for a fact is that “somebody” or just a small percentage of “somebody” in the world are doing the same thing by taking advantage of these historically low valuations by scooping up as much phyzz silver as we possibly can, right?

    We’re all contributing to less phyzz on the open market while “somebody” is giving us cheap prices.

    I hate the criminal cartel…but I will definitely keep scooping up the phyzz for as long as they keep giving us these prices.

    Because I think we all know that no matter who is buying most of the phyzz, there’s really only one or very few who can totally control what happens when the paper price and phyzz price diverge and phyzz price skyrockets to the moon. And that’s not us little guys.

    The big guys will decide when that happens and I believe they’re going to make it happen sometime soon…at least within the next 2 to 5 years…maybe sooner…I don’t know. But it’s not going to take a decade or longer. I just don’t believe we have that kind of time given the massive strain on the system world-wide.

    Excellent article and excellent analysis compared to ‘ol Uncle Ted. I think it would be kick-ass if you and Ted could get on a podcast somewhere like with Turd, SGT, SilverDoctors, etc.

    Happy New Years, bro! Keep up the excellent work…love it! And here’s to a better 2015.

    • Save_America1st,

      From all I’ve read, listened to, thought about, communicated with, I think your take is spot on. One addition:

      “Maybe it’s a cartel conspiracy? We all know these bankster scumbags conspire to commit fraud, treason, and other crimes against humanity, right?”

      Let’s name another shall we? Federal Antitrust violations.

    • Save_America1st,

      I didn’t say JP Morgan hasn’t bought any Silver Eagles (maybe a few)… I just don’t believe they purchased half of all sales since April 2011. Again, I spoke on the phone with several of the large Online Dealers who actually agreed with me that Ted got this call wrong in SPADES.

      James Anderson at JM Bullion knows at least half of the 11 Authorized Purchasers. He told me that he would know if they were selling half of their allotment of Silver Eagles to JP Morgan. We also have to remember, APMEX and many of these other companies now sell overseas.

      APMEX sells to 55 countries. So, it is very feasible that the U.S. Mint is selling 44 Million Silver Eagles to Americans and Foreigners, rather than JP Morgan.


  17. Thanks Steve, I have been struggling with Ed Steer’s incessant drum banging of Ted’s theory. I don’t buy it as pointed out by other comments why would the whores at JPM spend all the extra premiums to corner the silver Eagle market when buying big bars would be much cheaper. The only thing I could come up with would be if they thought the premiums would expand so much on them that screwing the little guy would be worth it….(screwing the little guy seems to earn extra machismo points for the sociopathic scum )

    Also appreciate the heads up on whose cooperating with a response and who isn’t. That Apmex isn’t will get an email from me asking why? My own efforts to secure a response from Sunshine Minting on their generic round sales and silver non government mint sales has not garnered a response. I know its the holidays so I will ask again next week this time by phone instead of email.

    Did you get any comments on that topic from your responders? 2015 will mark my 10th anniversary of buying PM’s not counting the coins I filtered out of the lunch counter change while I was in grade school in the 60’s. While I have been hopeful of a significant price increase for the last 4 or so years I think we are going to see things accelerate this year to the downside macro wise and the physical world re-assert itself.

    With the massive assault on silver prices this year and prices driven to the extreme lows followed by huge purchasing around the world of Ag PLUS the softness in Au sales I have to ask what’s your opine that this was not just another mis-direction by the Banksters? Getting so many to load up on Ag instead of gold might have saved them from a sold out in the Au market and thus kept the Ponzi alive for another year.

    I say this as the glee I have heard from announcers pronouncing that gold sales were off 40% in 2014 is the only thing I have heard from the talking heads…..nothing on the record Silver sales….hmmm

    • KansasCrude,

      Thanks for the reply. I am a bit perplexed when it comes to Ed Steer. Several of my readers have tried to forward my work to Ed, but Ed continues to refuse to publish my articles on his site, mainly due to what he labels as “Not Referencing Data.”

      Ed states that I don’t provide links and reference material for data in my articles. I find that quite interesting as I always provide the reference material on the graphics and in a large part in the article.

      I like Ted Butler, but he only analyzes COT data, and info on silver trading or manipulation. I believe the ENERGY-PRECIOUS METAL connection is much more important.

      I have no idea if Ted believes in Peak Oil.

      2015 will certainly be an interesting year.


  18. Wow! Coin sales finished 2014 up! Industrial demand is predicted to use 27% more silver
    by 2018! And scrap recovery of silver is heading south. Fortunately for the USA silver buyer
    we have a unique situation going on. Our mines are willing to produce silver at $15 which
    is $5 to $7 an ounce less that in costs to mine it? Thank goodness we have the only businesses
    in the world that can sell something for less than they pay for it. And it appears robust because
    not one single mine operation is shutting down. I hate adding a superlative to a word that in grammar
    school is a no, no but I’ll do it anyway. ” That’s very unique”.

  19. I bet they would buy a defunct mine for pennies on the dollar. that way they can access the bullion when they need – and justify the shorts if neccisary in court one day

  20. SilverWhoreder | January 2, 2015 at 3:02 pm |

    I have been reading these threads and have followed Ted’s comments. I do not know if JPM has been buying ASE’s or not, but when I originally read Ted’s theory, I asked myself why would JPM hoard eagles and pay the premiums instead of cheaper bars. The only thing I could come up with is that potentially they know that after a change in the money system that regulations will be changed and that profits on ASE’s will not be taxed. This is nothing but a theory on my part.. I am just taking Ted’s thoughts at face value and trying to find a logical reason to explain why JPM would be a buyer as Ted has theorized.

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