HAS PEAK DIESEL ARRIVED?? The Data Doesn’t Look Good

Has Peaked Diesel arrived?  Well, if so, it is terrible news for the automobile and trucking industry as well as the overall economy.  I came across this information from an article written by Antonio Turiel on his The Oil Crash website.  The article provides some sobering data suggesting that the global production of diesel fuel may have peaked.

Furthermore, due to the peak of conventional oil in 2005 and the considerable increase of U.S. shale light tight oil, the production of heavy fuel oil (not diesel, rather bunker fuel for ships, etc.) has also declined.  Turiel explains in the article The Peak of the Diesel: 2018 Edition, that the refineries cannot make as much diesel from the U.S. light tight shale oil, so they are forced to crack the heavier fuel oil to make diesel.  If true, what we have here is the cannibalization of the refinery system to continue to produce diesel at the expense of the heavier fuel oils.

If Peak Diesel has arrived, Peak Gasoline isn’t too far behind.

The Peak of the Diesel: 2018 edition

By Antonio Turiel (translated from CrashOil.blogspot.com)

Six years ago we commented on this same blog that, of all the fuels derived from oil, diesel was the one that would probably see its production decline first. The reason why diesel production was likely to recede before that of, for example, gasoline had to do with the fall in conventional crude oil production since 2005 and the increasing weight of the so-called “unconventional oils,” bad substitutes not always suitable to produce diesel. With the data of that 2012, I wrote “The Peak of Diesel”. At that time, there was a certain stagnation of diesel production, but it seemed to be too soon to venture if it was final or if it could still be overcome. I reviewed the issue in 2015, in the post “The Peak of Diesel: Edition of 2015.” The new data from 2015 showed that in 2012 there had really been no peaking, although diesel production had grown less strongly if we compared it with the previous historical rate, and even the last 18 months of the period studied at that time showed a certain stagnation. Now it has been another three years, and it is a good time to look at the data and see what happened.

Before starting, I would like to thank Rafael Fernández Díez for having the patience to download the JODI data, for having elaborated the graphs I show here, slightly retouched, and for having made me notice the problem that is being raised with the refining of heavy oils (We’ll see more below). He hasn’t had time to finish this post and that’s why I’m the one who wrote it, but what follows is actually his work.

As in the previous two posts, we will use the database of the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI). This database provides information about most of the world’s oil and refined products, but not all of them. The countries not included are countries with serious internal problems and a great lack of transparency, either because of wars or because they are very tight dictatorships. For this reason, the figures that I will show are around 10% lower than they should be if they were representing the whole world. However, given the characteristics of the excluded countries, it is most likely that their data did not change the observed trends, only the total amounts.

All the graphs that I will show are seasonally adjusted, that is, the points are the average of the previous 12 months. In this way, the effects of the variation due to the season are avoided, the graphic is less noisy and trends are better seen. The graphs will always be expressed in millions of barrels per day (Mb/d). First of all, I show you the graph of the evolution of diesel production over the past years:

Global Production Of Diesel Fuel

As seen in the graph, the year 2015 marked the maximum so far. There had not been such a marked drop in production since the crisis of 2008-2009, but in the case of the fall of 2015 we find that 1) there has not been a serious global economic recession; 2) the descent is lasting longer and 3) the levels of diesel production show no sign of recovery. Although it is still a little early to ensure that the peak of diesel has occurred, stagnation – even falling – is starting to drag on for too long to be ignored.

Looking at the data of JODI, two other very interesting things are observed. On the one hand, if one analyzes the production of all the fuel oil that is not diesel (fuel oil) it is found that its production has been in decline for years.

Global Production Fuel Oil (Minus Diesel)

As the graph shows, since 2007 (and therefore before the official start of the economic crisis) the production of fuel oils is in decline and it seems to be a perfectly consolidated trend. The diehard economist interpretation is to consider that there is simply no demand for these fuels (which, although of the same family, are heavier than diesel). When oil is refined, it is subjected to a process called cracking, in which the long molecular chains present in the oil are broken (by means of heat and other processes) and then the molecules are separated by their different properties of fluidity and density. The fact is that if you have made changes in the refineries to crack more oil molecules and get other lighter products (and that is why less heavy fuel oil is produced), those molecules that used to go to heavy fuel oil now go to other products. By logic, taking into account the added value of fuels with longer molecules, it is normal that these heavy fuel oils are undergoing cracking, especially to generate diesel and possibly more kerosene for airplanes and eventually more gasoline. We must not forget that from 2010 the fracking in the USA began to take off, flooding the market with light oil, which is not easy to refine to make diesel. It is therefore quite likely that the refineries have adapted to convert an increasing amount of heavy fuel oil into light fuel oil (diesel). It reinforces this idea that, if we add the volumes of the two previous graphs we have, there is a certain compensation for the trends of diesel production, increasing until 2015, and the long-term trend of decrease of the rest of the fuel oils.

Global Production Of Diesel & Fuel Oil

This figure shows that, after the 2008-2009 slump, it has been very hard to raise the total production of fuel oils, which peaked in 2014 and have remained there for almost a year; and at the moment it is suffering a resounding fall (about 2,5 Mb/d from the levels of 2014).

This last observation is quite relevant because if, as you can guess, the industry is cracking less heavy fuel oil to ensure that the production of diesel does not go down too much, the rapid fall of heavy fuel oil will quickly drag down the diesel production. In fact, the graph shows that, after falling in 2015 and 2016, in 2017, it was possible to stabilize the production of all fuel oils, but it is also seen that in recent months there was a quite rapid fall. Surely, in this shortage, we can start noting the absence of some 2.5 Mb/d of conventional oil (more versatile for refining and therefore more suitable for the production of fuel oil), as we were told by the International Energy Agency in his last annual report. This explains the urgency to get rid of the diesel that has lately shaken the chancelleries of Europe: they hide behind real environmental problems (which have always troubled diesel, but which were always given less than a hoot) to try to make a quick adaptation to a situation of scarcity. A shortage that can be brutal, since no prevention was performed for a situation that has long been seen coming.

The followers of that religion called economic liberalism will insist with all their strength that what is being observed here is a peak of demand, that old argumentative fallacy that does not agree with the data (who can think that people are stopping to consume oil because they want? Maybe because they have better alternatives? Which ones?). They will argue that there is a lower demand for diesel and that this is why production stagnates and that the production of fuel oils drops because, as they are more polluting fuels, the new environmental regulations do not allow their use. It’s a bit of the old problem of who came first, the chicken or the egg. With regard to the fact that the demand for diesel does not increase, prices have a considerable influence: this is how shortages are regulated in a market economy. And, as for the environmental reasons, the production of heavy gas oil has been dropping from 2007, when there was not as much regulatory interest as there seems to be now. There is one aspect of the new regulations that I think is interesting to highlight here: from 2020 onwards, all ships will have to use fuel with a lower sulfur content. Since, typically, the large freighters use very heavy fuel oils, that requirement, they say, makes one fear that a shortage of diesel will occur. In fact, from what we have discussed in this post, what seems to be happening is that heavy fuel oils are declining very fast and ships will have no choice but to switch to diesel. That this is going to cause problems of diesel shortage is more than evident. It is an imminent problem, even more than the peaks in oil prices that, according to what the IEA announces, will appear by 2025.

The second of the interesting things that the JODI data shows us is how the volume produced of all petroleum products has evolved.

Total Global Production Of All Petroleum Products

The volume produced has been able to continue increasing during these years thanks to the energy subsidy that the US is giving to the world by means of fracking. However, fracking oil only serves to make gasoline and that is why the diesel problem remains. But you can also note how the end of the graph above shows the same trend in the production of diesel, with a drop of more than 2 Mb/d. What does that mean? That the contribution of fracking to the whole volume is also hitting the ceiling, it does not get any higher. It is a further indication that we are already reaching the peak oil of all petroleum liquids.

That is why, dear reader, when you are told that the taxes on your diesel car will be raised in a brutal way, now you know why. Because it is preferred to adjust these imbalances with a mechanism that seems to be a market (although this is actually less free and more adjusted) rather than telling the truth. The fact is that, from now on, what can be expected is a real persecution against cars with an internal combustion engine (gasoline will be next, a few years after diesel). Do not say that you were not notified (and I was not even the first to do it in this blog). And if it does not seem right, maybe what you should do is to demand that your representatives explain the truth.

Full article here:  The Peak Of The Diesel: 2018 Edition


Hello, this is Steve from the SRSrocco Report.  I believe Turiel is on to something here about the peaking of global diesel production.  I have heard from a few other sources that the refineries are indeed having difficulty in producing quality fuels from combining of tar sands and light-tight shale oil.  The industry thought by combining the heavy tar sands oil and U.S. light shale oil, it would make an average oil blend, similar to good ole fashion medium grade API conventional oil.

However, it has turned out to be a real nightmare as this Tar Sands-Shale Oil blend creates a lot of difficulties for the refineries.  So, it will be interesting to see how the situation unfolds in the global refinery market when U.S. shale oil finally peaks.

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31 Comments on "HAS PEAK DIESEL ARRIVED?? The Data Doesn’t Look Good"

  1. Wonder how Venezuela was included. And whether it might make a few years difference.

    This would be the scariest for the under 40 generations if they had even the slightest clue what was going on.

    • SteveW,

      I don’t think it matters because the TELL-TALE sign is that the refinery industry is forced to crack heavy fuel oils to make diesel because there just isn’t enough good quality medium API conventional oil. It seems to me that the situation will get much worse going forward.

      steve

  2. Peak conventional oil meets absolute peak petroleum. And that’s before the fracking crash. Damn relevant charts. Steve, this backs your long held contention of an energy predicament dead ahead. We’ll have to keep an eye on The Oil Crash website. As always, thanks for the observation and posting.

  3. Steve, great article. What do we do to prepare for less and less of these necessary fuel oil fractions? As an individual family and as a nation? I am wondering if there is a real solution to this soon to be crises. Am reading OIL, Power and Money. It is a tough slog but does cover the history of oil in quite a thorough manner.

  4. In Canada, Diesel has been priced about 5-20 cents a litre higher than regular gasoline.
    This has gone on for a few years, although I think in late 2008 when regular gas crashed, diesel was higher for a waning period. Not sure it’s been due to any refinery issues.

  5. Northwest Resident | December 11, 2018 at 11:03 pm |

    I’ve always strongly suspected that there is a hidden motive behind the so-called trade wars. My suspicion is that a major component of the real (versus fake) trade wars rationale is to pave the way and to create a narrative for what must certainly will be imminent declining global trade. Now this article seems to explain perhaps the real reasons for much of what we are witnessing in national and international politics, trade wars specifically. The elite see this brick wall approaching and they’re reacting to that grim reality. Savvy rulers that they are, they are spinning a story in the public domain to explain “why” global trade is crashing and the rest of the economy with it. Obviously they’re concerned about maintaining social order, versus coming right out with the brutal shocking truth. Very interesting.

    • Re: trade wars

      I think trump (or his advisors) understand that the petrodollar standard is quickly coming to an end, and the “exorbitant privilege” enjoyed by USA of having the world reserve currency and printing money for all the nice things we import will soon be gone.

      Trump’s trade wars are an attempt to re-industrialize the USA and bring the balance of trade under control to prepare for loss of reserve currency status; it’s either that or Americans will experience a much lower standard of living than they are used to.

      Trump’s reluctance to implicate MBS in the kashoggi killing is a further indication of that; he desperately needs to keep MBS on the petrodollar reservation to buy some time.

  6. Michael Kohlhaas | December 12, 2018 at 1:50 am |

    We’re at peak oil. Peak diesel is just a precursor. The good days are over. Humanity is screwed. Prepare for “The Road”! We’re going down!

  7. Thanks Steve.

    “The volume produced has been able to continue increasing during these years thanks to the energy subsidy that the US is giving to the world by means of fracking.”

    Sooner or later, Shale oil will prove an energy-sink;

    This means you burn massively greater amount of gold-grade conventional crude oil, coal and natural gas supplies to get less energy-containing amounts of combustible liquids called ‘shale oil’.

    Humans can not manufacture Energy. Energy always and only comes flowing from the past into the future (The Fifth Law).

    This means humans will never be able to burn conventional fossil fuels to manufacture energy supplies greater in energy contents than the gold-grade fossil fuels expended in the process.

    The world think today solar, wind, hydro, fusion, nuclear, quantum, Tesla batteries and similar-hyped others – are energy-producers on their own, when they are, in fact, fossil fuels sub-product, and they’ll never produce sum useful energy greater than the total fossil fuels energy put into constructing and fuel their technologies, reactors and devices before wear and tear forces them to degrade and cease.

    Shale oil is a sub-product of conventional fossil fuels, too.

    Various reports on the internet state a barrel of tar-sand oil may cost $100k to produce – an indication on how its production is energy-intensive.

    Shale oil is no less energy-intensive, to that extent many comment online that the shale industry is a more debt-making engine than an oil-making business – exactly like solar, wind, nuclear, Tesla batteries and now Fusion.

    Watch the stunning increase of Iraqi crude oil supplies that destined for export since 2003 (locally-believed to be 6 million b/d including smuggled supplies) and you’ll find that the more they go higher, the higher the shale oil production is reported on in the US and few other places!

    A Paradox? No, it is Physics!

  8. Ships can switch to LNG, or rather new ships can be (and some are) designed to burn LNG. Most trucks, in particular all mining machines, have almost no practical LNG option. LNG infrastructure for ships is conceivable; LNG infrastructure for trucks would be comparable in costs only with total electrification of trucks. However this goes, the end result is deeply negative economically, but also politically. The world will not simply watch how diesel becomes scarce; some will secure their supplies (yes, China), others may go straight to dire shortage and economic collapse. And of course some shooting will be involved in the process, as armies run on diesel – trucks, tanks, gensets, everything. Jet fuel is also worth considering: it is between gasoline and diesel on the fuel scale.

    • I would add agriculture and the food industry to your list. Agriculture uses a lot of diesel and gasoline. Everything from mining fertilizers to running big Ag and delivering produce and finished goods not just locally but globally. Example: soybeans grown in the U.S. and Brazil feed livestock in China. Its crazy how much energy big agriculture and the food business consumes. Example: I buy flour made in Italy and sold on Amazon delivered right to my door. Or how about the coffee I buy. Grown in Africa or S.A. roasted in Italy, sold from Amazon and delivered to my door. Crazy..but I love the oil age. I will sorely miss it.

    • It’s interesting to note that 2/3 of all LNG carriers come from Korea. However only last year did they build a LNG powered carrier. So that means the current fleet of LNG carriers are powered by bunker fuel. If I have a carrier loaded with liquified natural gas why am I using bunker fuel?

      https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/koreas-first-lng-fueled-bulk-carrier-goes-in-service-next-year/

  9. Any thoughts on yesterday’s report of the huge find in the Permian? Is it true, and what does it mean for the frackers if it is?

    • JMO..Permian oil doesn’t matter in the long run. The problem has to do with the three tier petrol structure.

      1. Permian oil companies need higher oil prices to actually make money and not just create debt to pump expensive tight light crude.Steve has a great article focusing on Pioneer that demonstrates higher costs to pull less oil from the Permian. Growing the Permian won’t help if its not economically feasible to extract at today’s oil price.
      https://srsroccoreport.com/u-s-shale-oil-industry-catastrophic-failure-ahead/
      2. Refineries need cheap oil and higher gasoline and distillate pricing to be successful. Refinery costs vary.. building a complex, hydrocracking, hyrdroskimming, catalytic cracking refinery, can cost anywhere between 5-15 billion USD. The throughput (processing capacity) of this refinery should be between 250-500,000 barrels per day. Oil refining is a difficult business and margins are painfully slim.
      3. Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and other distillates are consumer driven. They want lower prices and the prices affect everything from bananas at the grocery store to high tech manufacturing. All economic activity is influenced by fuel prices. If the gasoline / diesel price gets too high consumers slow consumption, stop flying, and basically conserve resources. The economy softens and fuel price declines until consumption resumes and pushes the price back up. However, As you can see oil production vs. gasoline / diesel production are expensive operations.

      Taken together the petrol structure is part of the reason “The Hills group” predicts lower oil prices and less oil becoming available to the marketplace as refinery and oil operations succumb to over indebtedness and inability to bring fuel to the marketplace at a price the consumers can pay.

    • stephen Hyland | December 12, 2018 at 8:42 pm |

      I looked up the report, and according to the report on the Permian, it has about 46.3 billion barrels of oil in the ground. These are rough numbers, but fairly within range.

      The US consumes roughly an average of about 19.96 million barrels per day according to the EIA. And according to the EIA the world consumes roughly 34 + billion barrels of oil per year. For the US alone, thats not even 6.5 years worth of oil at current consumption levels. Thats not factoring in existing declining plays. Thats just factoring barrels of oil from this play for the US alone.

      So we really need to be finding a Saudi Arabia every 2-3 years and all we are finding is a play here or there that would give the US 6 or so extra years of oil at current consumption. And for the world it is even worse. That find would only add 1.3 years worth of oil at current consumption, factoring in no declining rates or anything else.

      We are in a dire situation. We should and need to be finding Saudi Arabia equivalents every few years and instead, we are finding plays that only add a year or a few years to global oil supply factoring in no decline rates or anything else. We peaked in oil discoveries decades ago. This won’t end well.

  10. Another reason for Peak Oil/Diesel. Just look at the business news TV(Fox, CNBC, Etc.). Crude oil prices are listed right along with the stock prices. Twenty years ago, there was hardly a murmur about the price of crude. It’s happened on a subconscious basis IMHO. The talking heads and our government have no clue that we are so close to peak oil in my opinion. Hoorah for Shale Oil to the rescue! As far as Natural Gas according to Art Berman we where a net gas exporter for oh about 1-2 months back in August.

  11. I would be very careful about making too many predictions of a peaking of diesel supply. It is far to early to tell. Linking your argument to LTO is also fundamentally flawed.

    Crude: EAGLE FORD GEN GRADE 2017 09
    Reference: EAGLEFORDGENGRADE201709

    Crude Summary Report

    General Information Molecules (% wt on crude) Whole Crude Properties

    Name: EAGLE FORD GEN GRADE 2017 09 methane + ethane 0.00 Density @ 15°C (g/cc) 0.794
    Reference: EAGLEFORDGENGRADE201709 propane 0.27 API Gravity 46.6
    Traded Crude: Eagle Ford API 45-50 isobutane 0.38 Total Sulphur (% wt) 0.08
    Origin: United States of America n-butane 1.91 Pour Point (°C) -6
    Sample Date: 10 September 2017 isopentane 1.50 Viscosity @ 20°C (cSt) 6
    Assay Date: 25 October 2017 n-pentane 2.04 Viscosity @ 40°C (cSt) 3
    Issue Date: 25 October 2017 cyclopentane 0.19 Nickel (ppm) 0.0
    Comments: – C6 paraffins 3.14 Vanadium (ppm) 0.2
    C6 naphthenes 0.91 Total Nitrogen (ppm) 80
    benzene 0.24 Total Acid Number (mgKOH/g) 0.10
    C7 paraffins 4.61 Mercaptan Sulphur (ppm) 4
    C7 naphthenes 0.46 Hydrogen Sulphide (ppm) –
    toluene 0.94 Reid Vapour Pressure (psi) 6.2

    Cut Data Atmospheric Cuts Vacuum Cuts

    Start (°C) IBP IBP C5 65 100 150 200 250 300 350 370 370 450 500 550
    End (°C) FBP C4 65 100 150 200 250 300 350 370 FBP 450 500 550 FBP

    Yield (% wt) 2.6 4.6 8.3 12.7 9.2 10.7 11.0 10.8 2.8 27.4 8.1 6.3 5.1 7.9
    Yield (% vol) 3.6 5.7 9.4 13.2 9.4 10.6 10.6 10.2 2.6 24.7 7.5 5.7 4.6 6.9
    Cumulative Yield (% wt) 2.6 7.2 15.5 28.2 37.3 48.0 59.0 69.8 72.6 100.0
    Density @ 15°C (g/cc) 0.794 0.640 0.696 0.755 0.771 0.794 0.815 0.833 0.843 0.872 0.855 0.865 0.872 0.896
    API Gravity 46.6 89.7 71.7 55.9 51.9 46.8 42.0 38.3 36.2 30.7 34.0 32.0 30.8 26.3
    UOPK 12.2 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.8 12.5 12.8 12.9 13.1

    Total Sulphur (% wt) 0.084 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.007 0.007 0.030 0.160 0.185 0.204 0.173 0.186 0.179 0.267
    Mercaptan Sulphur (ppm) 4 6.8 13.2 7.6 14.1 4.8 0.5
    Total Nitrogen (ppm) 80 26 56 62 78 226 146 220 263 288
    Basic Nitrogen (ppm) 28 0.54607417 2.539942234 9.733188721 21.50755278 95.38275736 50.68729641 97.36327414 118.7565715 124.6043649
    Total Acid Number (mgKOH/g) 0.10 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.60 0.22 0.60 0.87 0.80

    Viscosity @ 20°C (cSt) 5.79 1.26
    Viscosity @ 40°C (cSt) 3.15 0.97 1.58 2.98 6.06 10.4
    Viscosity @ 50°C (cSt) 2.44 1.37 2.45 4.72 7.81 44.1 15.7 29.8 46.1
    Viscosity @ 60°C (cSt) 30.6 11.6 21.1 32.9
    Viscosity @ 100°C (cSt) 9.91 4.59 7.20 11.4 36.4
    Viscosity @ 130°C (cSt) 16.5

    RON (Clear) 78.2 45.0 45.5 23.0
    MON (Clear) 77.5 45.3 42.6 29.4
    Paraffins (% wt) 53.4 95.9 82.6 64.6 62.6
    Naphthenes (%wt) 10.5 4.1 14.6 12.8 8.9
    Aromatics (% wt) 36.1 0.0 2.9 22.7 28.5

    Pour Point (°C) -6 -45 -21 4 17 32 31 43 50 37
    Cloud Point (°C) -42 -18 7
    Freeze Point (°C) -62 -39 -15
    Smoke Point (mm) 27 24 23
    Cetane Index 48 58 67 75 82
    Naphthalenes (% vol) 0.0 1.6 3.1 3.9
    Aniline Point (°C) 53.1 62.4 73.1 82.4 91.3 98.1 109.4 122.2 131.0
    Hydrogen (% wt) 16.6 15.7 14.3 14.8 14.4 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.3
    Wax (% wt) 26.9 73.9 85.5 86.1 76.8 50.6

    C7 Asphaltenes (% wt) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Micro Carbon Residue (% wt) 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.2 1.6
    Rams. Carbon Residue (% wt) 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 1.4
    Vanadium (ppm) 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.2
    Nickel (ppm) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5

    Disclaimer:
    The content of this assay is for guidance only and Equinor accepts no liability for any loss occurring from the use of this assay and errors that it may contain.

    Attached is an Equinor crude assay for Eagle Ford Crude. That does not support your claim that the LTO crudes are light in middle distillate production, far from it. What they lack is atmospheric residue which is anything up to 60 % or more in some crudes. In this crude it is 24.7% atmospheric residue and about 17.8% VGO. The atmospheric residue could probably be fed to an FCC. In the US Gulf coast refineries this crude would not be very suitable, due to the lack of atmospheric residue would would underload the conversion units, especially the cokers. In effect this type of crude would fill the top of the CDU (crude distillation unit) and limit the refinery throughput by maxing out the available capacity in the top of the CDU. In this example the the diesel yield is 23.4% which could be even higher depending on how the heavy naphtha and jet are cut.Middle distillates yield could be up to 35.3% which is excellent.

    • Carnot,

      I have seen analysis suggesting that U.S. shale light-tight oil can provide middle distillates, but the refining process is a bit more challenging. Also, U.S. refineries are designed for heavier crudes and cannot handle all of this new supply of shale oil.

      Furthermore, Morgan Stanley had this to say about U.S. Shale Oil:

      Most American refineries are configured to process heavier crude grades, creating a mismatch with the growing supply of light shale oil being extracted in places like the Permian Basin in Texas.

      “Our thesis is that the US refining system is close to being maxed-out on the amount of shale oil it can process,” wrote Morgan Stanley equity analysts, led by Martijn Rats, the head of the bank’s European oil and gas research team.

      Making matters worse, Morgan Stanley expects so-called middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel to account for most of the growth in oil demand, and light crudes aren’t ideal for making these products.

      This all leads Morgan Stanley to its takeaway: In order to gain market share around the world, traders will have to offer a discount on U.S. light oil.
      ———————-

      So, it will be interesting to see how the oil market plays out when U.S. shale oil finally peaks.

      steve

  12. Bloomberg:”Europe’s Diesel Woes Deepen as Strike Halts French Oil Refinery.”

    • “Sapra confirms diesel shortage in Sudafrica.”

      Sapra says it’s still unclear why there’s a shortage at pumps around the country.

    • ..sorry for my last outdate link

      “Zimbabwe Fuel Shortage Crisis (2018)”

  13. In Germany is a witchhunt for Diesel cars. They use a lot less and are now all of a sudden responsible for the bad air in Germany – LOL. All car manufacturers are in troubles and now Steve (congrats,I wondered for weeks what was this crap about.)comes with (t)his new view, while I read today in DWN that also the very newest and cleanest Dieselcar may be hunted down.(https://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2018/12/13/hoechstgericht-diesel-grenzwerte-der-eu-sind-ungueltig/ — translated by google)
    The European Union (EU) Court has opened the gate for driving bans on the latest generation diesel cars. The court declared on Thursday a regulation of the European Union commission to higher emission values ​​for diesel of the emission standard euro 6 for partially void. The cities of Paris, Brussels and Madrid are thus allowed to challenge the nitrogen oxide limits set out there and, in case of doubt, shut out diesel cars – even though these have been officially approved.

    The background to the dispute is that the EU Commission had subsequently increased the limit values ​​when introducing the new exhaust gas test RDE, which measures emissions on the road instead of in the laboratory. Instead of the 80 milligrams of nitrogen dioxide per kilometer prescribed in the Euro 6 regulation, the diesel cars are allowed to emit 168 milligrams and then 120 milligrams for a transitional period. The Commission justified this with measurement inaccuracies.

    She had made the decision shortly after the announcement of the diesel scandal in 2015. At that time it was clear that car manufacturers manipulate the exhaust gas tests in the laboratory, so that the cars emit far less exhaust gases there than on the road. Thus, the carmakers were able to meet the official limits, although their cars did not get cleaner in real operation. Exactly with this practice, the RDE test should actually put an end.

    If cars are allowed to emit more of the nitric oxide irritant gases, it will make it harder for cities to comply with legal air quality regulations. Paris, Madrid and Brussels had tightened the rules for their environmental zones in recent years. Paris is even pursuing the plan, from 2024 no diesel cars left in the city.

    In its ruling, the lowest EU court has now declared that cities can sue against the EU Commission’s increased limits. The Commission had denied that. The court found that the Commission should not have allowed the Euro 6 threshold to weaken in the RDE test. This is justified by the fact that the limit of 80 milligrams had to be complied with in the regulation “in practical driving and thus in the RDE tests”. That was an “essential provision” which the Commission could not amend.

    The judges give the Commission twelve months to lower the thresholds. The period starts in two months – if the Commission does not appeal to the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

    Whether the judgment has direct effects on the driving restrictions in Germany, is questionable. So far, only cars of Euronorm 4 or worse are affected by lockouts. According to a ruling of the Federal Administrative Court, Euro 5 diesel engines may not be banned from September 2019 at the earliest.

    It is open, whether afterwards also Euro-6-Diesel get. On the one hand, the nitrogen oxide levels are falling in most cities, and on the other hand, the Federal Government has decided to soften the limit values ​​for nitric oxide in city air and wants to exempt cars of the Euro standard 6 from driving bans. However, it is unclear whether these rules are compatible with European law.

    Diesel drive technology has an important function for the entire German economy, because the automotive sector is a magnet for thousands of suppliers. In the third quarter of the current year, the economic performance had already fallen, because the car makers were hardly able to bring new cars on the market due to new approval tests.

  14. HOW ABOUT PEAK SH** COIN ??

  15. How to solve the world’s energy crisis:
    Electric powered Solar/Wind power manufacturing plants.
    Electric Container Cargo Ships
    Electric Airplanes
    Electric Cars
    Harness the power of the ocean, using wave power and tide power. Generate electricity from the waves moving and and tides.

  16. Another bit of data that should be noted is the measurement of peak oil per capita. Once again, we run into overpopulation problems.

  17. By 2030, 90% of vehicles produced will be electric. This will cause a glut in diesel as the need will steadily decline.

    It is copper and Silver we should be worried about

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