CRITICAL FACTOR: The Real Reason To Own Gold

The U.S. and world are heading towards serious trouble.  The financial markets are being kept alive due to the monetization of debt on a massive scale.  This has produced a huge dislocation in the fundamental valuation of assets.

Currently, stocks, bonds and paper assets are on the receiving end of this monetary stimulation, while the physical assets such as the precious metals & commodities have been beaten down to assist in lowering the already low manipulated inflation rate.

Investors who once thought the precious metals were a safe store of value, are now beginning to question their confidence in gold as the price continues to head down towards its low set in June.   This is precisely what the fiat monetary authorities planned for and the public has taken it…. HOOK, LINE & SINKER.

There seems to be no shortage of gold forecasts.  David Einhorn was on CNBC and stated:

“certain aspects of the market are very much in bubble,”  with investors “dismissing valuation metrics.” “The market is confused,” between useful products and real profit streams, he suggests for a number of headline-grabbing highly speculative names.

“Fed policy is a headwind to the economy,” as he quantifies the hundreds of billions in lost interest income relative to wealth gains. Owning gold makes sense, he adds, “in case they lose control.”

Here, Einhorn believes the reason to own gold is just in case “THEY” lose control.  In all actuality, I believe THEY HAVE LOST CONTROL, however  the world doesn’t realize it yet.  Einhorn gets an “A” for effort here, but fails to understand the critical underlying reason to own gold.

Another long-term forecast of the price of gold was put out by Edison Investment Research November Gold Report.  In the report they forecast gold to hit $1,642 in 2015 and reach $2,070 by 2020.  This may seem a great deal better than some of the other more bearish bank and brokerage forecasts such as Goldman Sachs who see gold falling to $1,050 by the end of next year.

I read the entire 46 page Edison Gold report as they actually put some excellent data and analysis into producing their forecast.  Below is their gold price forecast table up until 2020:

Edison 2020 Gold Forecast tabel

The difference in their two gold price forecasts are based on either negative or positive real interest rates.  You can read their analysis and detail in their report at the link provided above.

The next chart from their report is the long-term price of gold to 2034 based on the forecasted increase of the U.S. monetary base supply:

EDISON 2034 Gold Forecast

According to Edison (Charles Gibson, the analyst who wrote the report), the price of gold doesn’t reach $3,000 until around 2028.  Then after 2033, it finally moves up towards $12,000+ by 2039.

Again, I really enjoyed the Edison Gold Report and recommend investors to take a look at it, but I believe we are going to see much higher gold prices way before 2030… and more than likely, within the next 5 years.

The problem with these reports is their failure to include the coming energy constraints in their forecasts.  I have been writing articles on how energy will impact the precious metals, mining and overall economy for several years.  There are two recent articles that explore some of the important problems facing the oil & natural gas industry that are worth a read if you have not already done so:

The Coming Bust of the Great Bakken Oil Field

Bursting of Bakken Screen Shot

MUST READ:  The Bursting of the Shale Gas Bubble

Shale Gas Bubble Screenshot

This next chart comes from the Energy Watch Group 2013 report.  It shows global oil production and forecasted decline from a country by country assessment:

Peak Oil Gold Chart

As we can see, forecasted global oil production is set to decline in a large way, starting in the next few years.  According to the folks at the Energy Watch Group, by 2030 the world will producing about half of the oil that it is currently.  Of course this is a forecast and we could see the decline to be more gradual.  However, if there any financial black swan events…  it could be more rapid.

The U.S. and world are trying to offset the decline of conventional oil production with sources such as Tar Sands, Deep Oil and Shale.  While these unconventional sources have brought on more production, they have come at a much higher cost and their annual decline rates (Deep & Shale Oil) make increasing production over a long period of time… impossible.

The major Banks and Brokerage Houses of the world are putting out forecasts for everything (including gold) based on the world to continue to produce the energy it needs to RUN BUSINESS AS USUAL.  As I wrote in the text box in the chart above, the majority of the valuations of stocks, bonds and most paper assets will head down the toilet as the impact of peak oil are finally realized.

And… it’s even worse than that.

As I have mentioned in several articles, it doesn’t matter how much oil a country can produce, but rather how much it can export that matters.  I have to repeat myself, because we have new readers everyday and furthermore… sometimes a subject has to be stated several times for it to finally sink in.

Jeffery Brown came up with the Land Export Model that shows the decline in Net Oil Exports in an equation form.  His Land Export Model is described in Wikipedia at the link I provided.

Jeff and I have had several email exchanges on many issues concerning energy & oil.  One of the aspects I am looking at now is the huge increase of CAPEX spending in the world to produce oil.  I am working on getting some of the details, but I can honestly say… the world is spending currency hand over fist in trying to keep overall production from declining.  Soon, they will lose the war on this battle.

Okay, getting back to net oil exports.  In Jeff’s chart below we can see the forecasted decline of ANE – Available Net Oil Exports until 2020:

Top-33-Net-Exporters

Jeff has assumed a very conservative 1% annual decline rate in oil production for the top 33 net oil exporters.  Even with this conservative rate, we can see that the ANE – Available Net Oil Exports to the remaining 155 oil importing countries may decline in half, from 34 mbd (million barrels a day)  in 2012 to only 17-18 mbd by 2020.

Let me clarify this chart.  The Red portion of the chart represents the domestic oil consumption of the top 33 net oil exporters.  The Pink area shows the consumption by China & India and the green portion at the bottom is what is left over for the remaining 155 oil importing countries.  The ANE = the green area.

Basically, net oil exports are the difference between a country’s oil production minus its domestic oil consumption.  All oil exporters go through the same cycle.  Their oil production peaks and decreases as the domestic consumption increases — a double whammy.

For all those who have emailed me the question, “Why has the cost of silver increased so much since 2002?”, it’s quite simple.  The reason is due to the quadrupling of the price of a barrel of Brent Crude from $25 in 2002 to $111 in 2012.  The increase in the price of oil has less to do with manipulation or monetary printing and more to do what we are discussing here… the decline of ANE.

In 2005, ANE peaked at 40.7 mbd (million barrels a day) and fell to 34.4 mbd in 2012 (figures from Jeffrey Brown).  The world has 6 million barrels a day less of ANE than it did seven years ago.  Thus, we have much higher oil prices due to increased competition on a falling supply.

So, if we consider that global oil production is going to decline in a good percentage by 2020 and quite severely by 2030… what in the living hell is that going to do to the AVAILABLE NET OIL EXPORTS??  How low will ANE decline to by 2025 or 2030?

GOLD IS THE HEDGE AGAINST PEAK OIL

Without trying to sound like a broken record… GOLD (as well as silver) will be a hedge against peak oil.  Why?  The world is awash in $trillions of paper assets that derive their value from a healthy and growing economy.  What happens when that is no longer possible as energy constraints hit in a big way? The value of these assets become increasingly worthless.

Do you remember that chart of the long-term gold forecast by Edison above showing the increase of monetary base and the price of gold to 2034.  Unfortunately, these folks have failed to incorporate the changing (negative) energy environment in their forecasts.  I highly doubt the growth in the U.S. monetary base will continue until 2034.  Rather, I see a collapse of the U.S. Dollar and the Treasury Market well before that time period.

This chart below from one of my prior articles shows the huge amount of Global Conventional Assets under management:

Global Conventional Assets 2012

The nearly $90 trillion in Global Conventional Assets will perform rather badly in a peak oil environment.  The reason why gold and silver will be a hedge against peak oil is due to the store of “Economic Energy.”  Mike Maloney talks about this in his Hidden Secrets of Money series.

As global oil production declines making the drop of ANE – Available Net Oil Exports to the remaining The 155 importing countries fall even further, investors throughout the world are going to see the value of these historic conventional assets disintegrate.  These so-called assets are not a hedge against peak oil, but rather a huge liability.

Because there is such a small amount of physical gold and silver to go around, the movement into these precious metals will make their values increase substantially in the future while most other assets decline.

Precious metal investors who are currently frustrated with the ongoing manipulation which has pushed the price of gold and silver back towards their previous lows in June… need to be patient.  The fundamentals will play a vital part in the market once again.

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33 Comments on "CRITICAL FACTOR: The Real Reason To Own Gold"

  1. There is no ‘escape’ from the fundamentals.

    Some will be able to mitigate some of the consequences, of the coming “black swan” event.
    Through paying attention and preparing accordingly.
    Most will not.

    Good luck to all here, who are taking these warnings seriously and are preparing accordingly.

    To those who are still in denial – Good luck – You will need it!

  2. I understand the need for physical PMs in this environment but where do the mining stocks fit into this? Do they?

    • Bob,

      Yes they do. You have been asking about the coming mining reports and I appreciate your patience. I am working on several things at one time. I am working with another site on reports as well, but am putting together a Silver Miners Report that will come out shortly.

      Once things get rolling, I will have these Paid & Free Reports for the readers and members here. That being said, don’t worry about the timing of getting into these mining stocks. WE HAVE SOME TIME.

      The Fed & Central Bank Crap will go on for a bit longer. So there is no hurry.

      Chat more about that later.

      steve

  3. Hi Steve

    Didn’t mean to come across as pushy (or ungrateful)…so sorry!

    I do sense some urgency in your posts so it gets me motivated to do some more and take action.

    I am plenty invested in physical PMs but really would like to invest in some quality mining stocks. Considering how awful they have done in the past few years this isn’t easy and trying to find a quality/honest report is like finding hens teeth…until I discovered your website.

    Anyways, keep up the great work and I honestly look forward to your report. I hope you write a book one day!

    • Bob,

      No worries… didn’t take it as pushy at all. Selecting and owning mining shares in the future will be much more difficult than the past due to several reasons…. Peak Oil being one.

      I have spoken with Sean Rakihmov on the phone last week who runs SilverStrategies.com. He has been in the silver business for years and believes foreign governments will increasingly bite into the profits of the gold and silver miners. Mexico just announced a new law that will increase taxes-royalties on the miners in their country.

      Silver Standard has now decided to wait on going forward with the construction of its huge Pitarrilla mine in the Durango State of Mexico due to this recent change in government policy. I am not saying they are not going forward, but now with the lower price of silver… it makes sense to wait.

      Even though the miners will see more of their profits taken away by foreign govts, I believe they will still be excellent investments in the future when obtaining the physical gold and silver will become difficult after the revalution.

      steve

  4. We don’t have money or Capitalism. We have legal tender backed by the government’s monopoly on the use of force. Today all currencies are fiat currencies. Fiat literarily translated from Latin is “let it be”, operationally it is “by order of”. Money must meet three requirements: unit of account, median of exchange and store of value. Fiat currencies fail on the store of value. If you produce 100 loaves of bread and sold them for real money you should be able to buy 100 loaves later. With fiat currency today you could buy maybe 50 loaves. The value of the other 50 loaves would be confiscated by government to fund government. Real money is incompatible with government. You get a much better deal on the black market or underground economy however you run the risk of being confronted by government’s use of force.

    Capitalism requires three things: capitol, labor and private property. Capitol is productive excess usually in the form of savings, we have debt and consumption. Labor is a mutual agreed exchange between an individual and an employer without government interference such as wages, conditions, work rules etc. Private property is an illusion; I rent my little plot of land from the county and local district. Throw in eminent domain and the illusion of private property becomes obvious. Capitalism is incompatible with Government.

    As long as we have centralized government we will have a fiat currency. I used to fly into Wheelus AB east of Tripoli, Libya which prior to about 1970 used script which you exchanged for $US entering and leaving. As the $US heads toward zero it will be replaced by another fiat currency at gunpoint. Central banking works with Legal Tender Laws and owns our government. They will not self destruct. They will obey the Laws of Nature, survival and propagation.

    Gold and silver will not become money until government collapses due to world wide “Arab Spring” or world wide food shortages caused by the collapse of industrial agriculture due to liquid fuel decline is my best guess.

    • “Gold and silver will not become money until government collapses due to world wide “Arab Spring” or world wide food shortages caused by the collapse of industrial agriculture due to liquid fuel decline is my best guess”.

      My guess is you are right about this. But gold and silver will cost or be worth a lot more fiat money in the future, and before officially becoming money they will function as such in private transactions.

      As confidence and faith erodes in fiat we will still need it for legal tender purposes, but if one is selling something of value, and has adequate fiat for legal tender purposes, the seller may ask to be paid with a PM.

  5. Just wondering if you have had a chance to check out the financial servival network, In particular an interview with Dr frackenstein. Just wondering your thoughts,

    Enjoy your work
    Thanks
    Dball

  6. Too funny some of the post here. First of all, Gold & Silver is MONEY when MONEY fails. Like now. I can buy your house or one share of the DOW today for way less ounces of GOLD. Secondly, interest rates averaged well over 10 % in the 70’s & 80’s. Gold rose 2200% during the same time. So much for the Edison bogus reports.As for the rest, their track record stinks to on calling future prices of GOLD. They never saw $1000 GOLD let alone $1900 coming. Whether they are ignorant of the facts,or talking their position,precious metal investors should keep their eyes on the big picture and stay the course and accumulate for preservation of wealth. This has all been orchestrated in order to take your gold or gold shares. Why has the Fed & FDIC approved GOLD as a TIER I asset to be held as collateral on the banks balance sheets? Who is fooling who when it comes to price discovery?

    • If gold and silver are money have you tried paying gold for purchases at Walmart? I agree pm’s are real money in the absence of Legal Tender laws backed at gunpoint however we operate in a fiat system.

    • bjscrocca,

      You bring up some excellent points. One of the things that I have made the effort to do, is to stop calling Federal Reserve Notes money. As Mike Maloney has stated, we need to call fiat money what it really is….. CURRENCY. I have to go back and edit my artilcles-posts to change the word money to currency. As we all know here… GOLD & SILVER ARE MONEY, while fiat money only behaves as a currency.

      I agree with you on the conclusions of the Edison Gold Report. However, if we read the full document, there is a great deal of excellent data. The report also details in “In-Situ” value of gold explorers and producers in several countries.

      The reason why I thought the report was excellent was due to the DATA INSIDE and not the CONCLUSION. I should have made that more apparent. I have a way with words at times that does not get across what my mind is thinking… even though I know what it’s thinking…LOL.

      You see, I am a researcher and we love to come across DATA. Coming across good information and data for a researcher is like a kid in a candy store.

      Some of the charts in the report were great. However, I take this data and make up my own conclusions. That is why I stated in the article where I differ from EDISON and reports such as these.

      Yes, gold and silver are heavily manipulated. It may not be always by the PHAT FINGER on a trade, but it is always done through the FOREX, DERIVATIVES & INTEREST RATE SWAP markets.

      steve

  7. Will the prices of gold/silver drop any lower or do you think we have seen bottom? I’m considering moving a small pension plan into a IRA, LLC if the price drops lower (hedge against collapse of dollar). Thanks.

    • The bottom is zero. I don’t think pm’s will go to zero and we will have a new issue of script before before the $US goes to zero. If you don’t physically possess it and are standing over it with an AK-47/AR-15 you don’t own it. Remember MF Global and Cyprus.

    • SRSrocco, what do you think?

      • James,

        The paper price of gold and silver could go a bit lower. However, we are getting down to the cost of production for gold and have now gone below cost of production for the majority of the primary silver miners.

        Some of the primary silver miners are doing better with their costs, but they are cutting out exploration and capex spending that will hurt production growth in the future.

        Right now the TRADE is to be into highly inflated STOCKS & BONDS. Even claimed Hedge Fund trader Hugh Hendry stated, “I cannot look at myself in the mirror; everything I have believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends.”

        So, the world is now going along with the FED induced insanity. Thus, everyone is on for the ride. Unfortunately, this ride will not last forever and we are beginning to see cracks in the economic data. When Yellen becomes the new Fed Chairman, the notion of TAPER will go out the window right along with Bernanke.

        We are going to see much higher QE monthly monetizations. China is still purchasing gold hand over fist and I believe even stronger physical buying will occur once the FED commences on higher QE stimulation.

        I would not go against this trend, but I would stand aside and wait for it to FALL ON ITS FACE, as it did in the 2007-2008 time period.

        We still have more time to wait before the gold and silver fireworks take place. But, I doubt we are going to see much lower prices of either metal.

        steve

  8. That whole 2030 thingie is based on the stock market from 1900 to the 1929 crash. “They” are following the pre-depression/post-depressionary model.

    The “gold bugs” are looking at the 70’s time frame in the dow/gold model.

    IMHO both are wrong.

    2017 according to the Russians will be the end of the reserve status of the dollar.

    Just sayin’. Thanks for playing along.

  9. Seems to me a very compelling reason to own gold is December’s gold open interest – 106,000 comex contracts or roughly 330 tons of gold. First issue is on 11/27 or in 3 trading days. Volume has been heavy last 3 days and open interest for December dropped roughly 50000 contracts since mid week. I think December deliveries will easily exceed the high set in February at 13,000 contracts or about 36 tons of gold. Dealer stock of gold for the big 3 is about 14 tons. The bullion guys redeemed 14 tons of gold at the gld last week knocking tonnage down to 852 tons down 498 tons ytd. Probably only the Fed can meet comex december contracts – although I did notice that Goldman has just entered into a swap agreement for about 70 tons of Hugo Chavez gold held at BOE.

    Let’s face it. $3.7 trillion of fx reserves trumps paper gold, the bullies and the Fed. China is taking us down and sucking up every oz of western gold. Then they’ll put the collar on USA and tell us when, what and how. Don’t ask about why because it does not matter. Don’t know when the lunacy ends but I think it’s close.

  10. Hi Steve,

    Interesting take on it! This line especially is nice;

    ”the world is spending currency hand over fist in trying to keep overall production from declining. Soon, they will lose the war on this battle.”

    Seems the world just found a new (shale) oil field that could postpone it a bit…

    ”Up to 233 billion barrels of oil has been discovered in the Australian outback that could be worth trillions of dollars, in a find that could turn the region into a new Saudi Arabia. ”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/9822955/Trillions-of-dollars-worth-of-oil-found-in-Australian-outback.html

    Ofcourse the piece is filled with hyperboles and so on and admitting a little detail here and there but sure is an interesting read.

    • Hugo,

      Reserves are always hugely overstated. However, the problem with the shale out in the Australian Outback is the lack of infrastructure and water. Furthermore, I would like to say that just about all of the shale gas companies in the USA are losing serious money and only a few in the Bakken and Eagle Ford are making a little.

      Shell says they are getting out of the Eagle Ford because they can’t make enough money. I have put a link to Art Berman’s presentation on the “Decade of Shale Gas in the US”, but only a few actually checked it out. He answers all the questions and provides excellent data that SOBERS even the worst skeptic. I can provide the info, but I can’t force people to read and watch it.

      The reason why the MAJORS like Shell and Exxon are getting out of shale plays is because they have to show a profit on a FULL CYCLE BASIS. The shale industry is being sold on a POINT FORWARD BASIS… which disregards a lot of costs.

      This is precisely why Berman believes shale will not last long as a resource… there’s no profit. Majors (real companies) have to show their shareholders and the public FULL CYCLE COSTS, whereas the smaller shale oil and gas companies are not.

      As Berman says in the beginning of his presentations, “Shale is not a new revolution… IT’S A RETIREMENT PARTY.”

      Lastly, even if there is some decent shale oil that is commercially viable in the Outback, as I have mentioned before the EROI of shale is 5/1…. which is below our sustainability level for modern societies. Charles Hall who was the pioneer of the EROI (now retired) believes the U.S. needs something like 10/1+ EROI to sustain our modern lifestyle.

      steve.

    • Actual physical currency in the form of pieces of paper notes, accounts for about 2% of the total currency supply. The remainder is nothing more than digits in a data base. Created by the stroke of a key at the federal reserve.

      The vast majority of these physical notes are in the $100 dollar bill denomination and reside outside the US. What happens to inflation within the US when all these notes come home to roost, because the rest of the globe does not want to hold them?

      Funny thing about all these “pie-in-the-sky” oil discoveries, they first must be proven, then proven to be economically viable. Most do not meet one or both of those criteria. Next, you must ask yourself; “how many drill rigs does Australia own”? I would guess not many.

      It has been shown that shale formations require a massive amount of drilling. Where is Australia going to get those numbers of drilling rigs? Most of the globes drilling rigs are in the US and would take a considerable amount of time and energy treasure to transport them down under. Making the EROI non viable. Australia could build these rigs, but again at a great cost effecting the EROI and turning it negative. Wishful thinking.

  11. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Edison gold chart is a simple extrapolation of the present price tyranny under the COMEX futures and LBMA forwards paper market present day performance. My predictions for the present ultra suppressed price action is remarkably similar (and hopefully not prescient) and hence I too do not believe this graph is credible. The metal drawdowns and increasing default risks that they imply would also argue against the Edison graphic. Do we declare that exercise as MOPE?

    The Edison point of view also assumes a rather too linear view of FED printing. I think I will continue to look to the Free Gold world view and supply and demand end game forces as China continues to import Western gold at a ferocious rate. Shouldn’t we also be wondering (out loud) about what point of COMEX deliverable gold stocks (including those held at GLD)(grin) will be too low to rationalize this paper market. I do note the margin rate was lowered again so we can assume another major effort is upon us to lower the POG in the headwind (?) of seasonality.

    And lastly, just how difficult has it become for outsiders to get metal delivery out of GLD and the COMEX? Nobody complains and just what does that mean?

    At the same time I do agree with the EROI view and do thank Steve for bringing all this to our attention.

    Regards,
    G.

    • Galearis,

      I totally agree with you about the shortsighted forecast of the recent Edison Report. As I tried to state in a comment above, when I said the report was excellent… I meant as it pertained to the data that was included in the report.

      I look at all reports in this fashion….. They are like a detailed series of tests on an individual who has some disease. One doctor looks at the results and makes one conclusion, while another sees something totally different. I like to be able to look at the DATA-RESULTS. The Edison Gold Report had a lot of good data, however the conclusion was invalid due to the narrow minded nature of the analysis.

      steve

  12. Hi Steve,
    I agree with the basic scenario you describe but in my opinion the dynamics might play out differerntly.
    After a few years society adapts to high energy prices and gets more efficient. Moreover, to some extent oil gets substituted by other fuels.
    Cars can run on compressed natural gas, heating of houses can be done with wood or coal and so on.
    Few years ago I could not imagine carmakers advertising that their vehicles are more energy-efficient then the competition, now that is common.
    That adaption might help for a while.

    For gold and silver, there was a while ago a projection (probably at the oil drum) that the currently known reserves will be depleted in about ten years for silver and a bit more for gold. I do not think that they figured climbing energy prices in the calculation. Low ore grades and high energy prices first kill mining profits and then mines.
    At one point mining output could fall ofa cliff.
    Gunther

    • Gunther,

      You bring up some excellent points and yes, the world will try to offset peak oil by bringing on more expensive and lower EROI energy sources. UPS is using LNG at a filling station not to far from where I live for 30 trucks in the linehaul fleet. I spoke with the folks that run the station, and you have to wear a mask and be certified to be a LNG attendant.

      LNG has to be stored at minus 260 degrees F and it takes special tanks to hold this liquid. Furthermore the energy value in a gallon of LNG is much less than diesel so it takes more liquid volume to produce the same MPG that you would get from diesel.

      This all takes more technology and energy which lowers the overall EROI value of this technology.

      Regardless, I truly believe that the world cannot afford a percentage of the oil that is consuming currently. The Fed is actually propping up the entire global economy by its QE monetization. It is a one-way street to hyper-liquidity as Jim Sinclair states.

      The world’s existing oil fields are declining at about 7-8% per year. Thus, the world needs to bring on nearly 5 million barrels a day each year to keep production from declining. They have been doing so, but it’s costing an arm, leg and asshole to do it.

      Now, when we figure that shale oil and gas are declining at 40% a year on average, this new energy source will only INCREASE the overall world decline rate even higher… which means the world will need to add even more oil each year to offset this increasing decline rate.

      I have been looking at the data on fuel efficiency as it pertains to U.S. automobiles and trucks… and I have to say, WE ARE HEADING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION:

      As we can see from this chart from the EIA, the fuel mileage efficiency has been falling in the United States for the past several years. Basically, we are squandering this very expensive and short term shale oil supply.

      This is typical of the public. When prices of gasoline shot up to record levels in 2008, the efficiency increased. However, now that the public is getting used to the higher price of gas, it is falling once again.

      steve

  13. I know I am going to look/ sound like a nut job but does peak oil happen if peak society dies off? I get resources are always in a decline but a mass die off would certainly extend peak anything. I appreciate your research and dialogue and I hope that the world is sane enough to live in yours.

    • Yes, well if you’ve been watching TED Talks, you’d have heard Bill Gates et. al. pontificate on the global overpopulation problem. Don’t fret though. It’s nothing that a “good” world war can’t solve. Fire up the drumbeats for Syria/Iran, Saudi Arabia.

  14. Precious metals, like their paper substitutes, will have less value as people are less willing to accept it in exchange for necessities like food. In the not too distant future, I’ll value gold mostly for its reflectivity and heat and electricity conductance.

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