U.S. Exports 128 Metric Tons Of Gold Jan & Feb 2014… Supply Deficit Increases

Not only did the U.S. export 128 metric tons of gold in the first two months of the year, its supply deficit continues to increase.  While gold exports to Hong Kong fell in February, Switzerland imported another 28 metric tons of gold during the month, more than twice the 12 metric tons it imported in January.

If we look at the chart below, we can see where the United States exported the majority of its gold.

U.S. Gold Exports Jan & Feb 2014

In the first two months of the year, Hong Kong imported 65 metric tons (mt) of gold, Switzerland received 40 mt,  followed by Australia at 6.2 mt, India 5.7 mt, United Arab Emirates 3.2 mt, Thailand 3 mt, Singapore 1.2 mt and the United Kingdom…. a paltry 1 mt.

Hong Kong and Switzerland imported 105 mt or 82% of the total 128 mt exported during January and February.   If we assume that the majority of gold heading to Switzerland is being refined and then shipped off to Hong Kong and the East… the overwhelming majority of U.S. gold exports are heading to Asia, India and the Middle East.

Let’s assume 80% of Switzerland’s gold imported from the U.S. is refined and shipped to the East.  Thus, 113 mt of U.S. gold exports during January and February made their way to Asia, India and the Middle East, while 15 mt were imported by Western countries.

As I stated several times before, the West continues to print money and manufacture derivatives, while the East acquires gold hand over fist.

The U.S. Gold Supply Deficit Increased to 40 Metric Tons During First Two Months Of The Year

Even though the United States is the top 4th gold producer in the world (Russia surpassed the U.S. in 2013 and is now #3), it doesn’t seem to care about holding onto any of its yellow precious metal whatsoever.

During the first two months of the year, the U.S. imported 48.1 mt of gold, had a mine supply of 39.4 mt and exported a whopping 128 mt for a net supply deficit of 40.5 mt:

U.S. Gold Imports, Exports, Mine Supply & Deficit JAN-FEB 2014

While these figures do not include U.S. gold scrap supply, it also excludes any domestic consumption.  For KICKS & GIGGLES, if we did include U.S. gold scrap supply which would be approximately 30 mt for JAN & FEB (USGS estimates U.S. gold scrap was 200 mt in 2013), it would still leave a supply deficit of 10 mt.

Of course, the United States consumes some gold… which implies a number of banks, financial institutions or exchanges coughed-up 40 metric tons of gold to make up for the supply deficit.

The major Banks and Financial Institutions will continue to publish ridiculously low gold price targets because all they have left in their BAG OF TRICKS, is the ILLUSION OF FAITH.   Hell, it’s not even real faith, but rather the sort of delusional faith in a system that is rotten to the core.

As Russia, China and the other BRIC countries work towards a system that doesn’t include the TURD called the U.S. Dollar, Americans have less and less time to prepare for the GREATEST TRANSFER OF WEALTH…. in history.

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47 Comments on "U.S. Exports 128 Metric Tons Of Gold Jan & Feb 2014… Supply Deficit Increases"

  1. Steve

    Interesting numbers. Speaking of silver, help me think of a product or service that logged record demand in 2013 and yet it’s price dropped dramatically? I can’t think of one…. Maybe smart phones?

    Tas

  2. follow all this rapidly moving gold and every commentator keeps saying supplies are getting low, not much or no gold or only low reserves left in fort knox, london vaults are near empty because swiss refiners are getting 400 oz bars from the 1960s etc etc etc.

    When does the supply run out? That seems to be the critical factor thats keeping the “ship” afloat at the moment. Chinese could collapse the dollar anytime they want, but they are going to bleed the wests gold supplies dry first. Just coz refiners are getting bars from the 1960s, may not mean they are near the bottom of the “barrel” so to speak. England may have vast stores going back many centuries.

    Somebody or enough somebodys to get enough pieces of the jigsaw together to to form a fair picture, must know or have a fair idea? How about some anonymous vault workers, forklift drivers, security guards, whistleblowers or anybody with a handle on it?

    I realise that alot of stored gold is leased, has multiple claims on it, maybee is ill gotten or has disputed ownership, but its either in a vault or shipped to the east. How Much IS Left?

    I’m trying to get an idea of when this hall of smoke and mirrors will cease to function. Its obvious theres a “reset” of sorts coming. HOW MUCH LONGER DO WE HAVE TO WAIT?

    Somebody please?

    • R, you are asking the wrong question. There is plenty of gold in the world and consequently we will never run out of gold. The real question is at what price will current owners of physical gold no longer be willing to part with their holdings at these prices? As I see it gold is moving from weak to strong hands and the longer this goes on the higher gold prices will have to go for new weak hands to be willing to part with their gold until one day we will get to a point where nobody is willing to sell their gold because everyone will finally get it….

      • There is a shortage of gold to continue to sell at these quantities for much longer at any price. 400 ounce bars showing up at Swiss refineries do not come from individual gold bugs.

  3. DAVIDE TAGLIABUE | May 19, 2014 at 9:36 am | Reply

    While I was reading your interesting article (with interesting data),
    on the right side of the page a Harry Dent’s banner (http://signups.survive-prosper.com/X195P941)
    said gold is going toward 700$/ounce.
    Maybe you both are expert, but It’s hard for me (not expert) to understand what’s going on.
    You say gold is oversold and there’s a small quantity left (in USA), but it’s hard to belive why speculator just don’t jump on these news going long on gold.
    I belive the scenario is more complicated, and I cannot buy gold if I don’t understand this big scenario.

    • Davide,

      To help pay the costs for running the site, I use Google AdSense. Google AdSense puts in various Ads without my consent. That’s the way it works. I believe Harry S Dent’s forecasting abilities have proven quite faulty, however, he still makes a killing selling Books and etc to the next POOR UNWORTHY SLOB.

      Your question is a good one. I gather if you spend some time reading my past articles on the subject of Energy and the Precious metals, you will realize Gold & Silver will be some of the safest physical assets to own in the future.

      Lastly, I will be putting out some REPORTS soon that should provide more information to assist in making up your opinion.

      steve

      • DAVIDE TAGLIABUE | May 19, 2014 at 2:03 pm | Reply

        Thanks Steve,
        I’ve already read 2 your old artcles, and I belive they are well written,
        full of facts and data, that’s why there’s something I still cannot understand,
        maybe the financial system doesn’t work like a math proof,
        maybe I have to read more… thanks again

    • DaleFromCalgary | May 19, 2014 at 7:09 pm | Reply

      I used to take Harry Dent Jr seriously because of his use of demographic data, but after a few years I noticed his specific dated predictions were wrong. His investment funds also tanked. If you Google his name, you won’t have too much trouble finding detailed criticisms of his predictions.

      The problem with demographic data is that it is based on a world that no longer exists and therefore cannot be extrapolated. The Boomers are now contending with Peak Oil, which means that the economics of their world, especially retirement, will be different than the Greatest Generation. Also, Boomers are not behaving the same, and work longer (often because they have to) before retiring. Because of low interest rates, Boomers have to stay invested in stocks and commodities, instead of enjoying 5% bond income like their parents.

      Dent has predicted ten of the last one recessions.

      • I’m willing to make him a bet, held in escrow, that he is wrong. I’ll bet gold won’t go below $1,100 and I’d be very surprised if it gets below $1,200 ever again. That is unless it is valued in some “reset” dollars rather than the current one.

      • Totally agree. I never take an author too seriously if its obvious he’s spent about 0 minutes thinking about energy. Dent seems to be all demographics, too unidimensional in this environment.

        Why does the defation versus inflation debate always have to take one side or the other? Can’t you have both at the same time? Deflation of real estate, stocks, bonds and your portfolio in general while at the same time suffering hard inflation at the grocery store, doctor’s office and gas station?

    • Davide,

      Bill Holter from Miles Franklin recently wrote a rebuttal to Harry Dent’s claim that gold is going to $700 and ultimately as low as $250 an ounce.

      I think you will find this informative.

      http://blog.milesfranklin.com/mr-deflation-is-delusional

  4. That is the same question I have asked myself ! It also seems that London gold which “belongs” to saudi arabia is also for sale. You have also possibly some hidden gold which “belongs” to the Vatican but where is it stored, have it been already leased ie sold ?

    I would be very surprised that a minimum of 5000 metric tons would not be available to the cartel in case of “emergency” but that is just a guess. For example there is still some gold stored at the Bundesbank. German bankers and politicians always obey to the anglos so I guess there is 1000/1500 metric ton jsut with germany. You have also 500 metric tons from the ETF.

    If Jim Willie is right and the real transfer of gold from the west is in fact of about 500/1000 metric tons by month I think we are still 12/24 months MINIMUM for the end of depletion

    • If you think they are holding 5,000 tons for an “emergency”, just what might that be? What could be more of an emergency than the current ballistic rise in the monetary base while the BRICS are getting serious about international trade without dollars?

      • “What could be more of an emergency than the current ballistic rise in the monetary base while the BRICS are getting serious about international trade without dollars?”

        Puh-lease. This is just ridiculous non-sense that sounds like Maloney-baloney to me. First, the monetary base increase is not going to make it into the economy. The Fed will change the amount they need to hold against reserves to make sure our money doesn’t get diluted away. Then you much realize why stocks are at a true and new permament plateau. IT is because those excess reserves will always remain just that: excess but not fungible to the economy. Hence, the new normal for stock prices.

        Second, it is why the Fed increase the money supply “ballistically” without inflation showing up on your door step, Mike. You get asset inflation in the assets they want inflated….but that doesn’t truly make it into the economy via the wealth effect.

        Therefore, your doom and gloom on “ballistic” money supply growth is just that: more transfers of wealth from you–who I preseume like gold and silver–to people like me. Who buys stocks, make a fortune, and then turn it into real assets like real-estate. You have indeed missed the greatest wealth transfer in history sir. And you picked the wrong way to play it and preach it.

        • Your comments…comedic relief.

          1- The Fed will change the amount they need to hold against reserves to make sure our money doesn’t get diluted away
          2- why stocks are at a true and new permanent plateau
          3- new normal for stock prices
          4- You get asset inflation in the assets they want inflated

          I think I’ll save these for a chuckle…maybe that’s how you intended it.

        • That was pretty funny! You did mean that as a joke right? Nobody could possibly be that misguided to actually believe the garbage you just wrote!!

        • I would suspect your real estate investments are not of the farm ( crop or animal ) variety and I also suspect you are to a large degree reliant on the income of said property in order to sustain its ownership. If what I surmise is true then your tenants who are most likely not as well off as you will likely not be capable of paying the rent in the near future as the choice between food or rent is really never a choice.The dramatic price increase in ( 19% + from January till April ) food will be just one factor in turning your “assets ” into detrimental liabilities…but maybe I’m wrong and this will al just go away but I doubt it 😉

          • nofaithnewe,

            It will be a challenge to forecast what real estate will be safer to own in the future. I would imagine the larger the building (huge warehouses, WalMarts-Big Box Stores, Mega-Malls, Mega-Car lots) as well as Colleges, Suburban Real Estate, Large Commercial buildings and etc will come under serious strain in a peak energy environment. Very few if any understand this.

            Also, large commercial farm land properties may turn out to be a liability as it becomes difficult to continue the faulty GMO-Commercial Agro model.

            steve

      • No emergency now : no open failure do deliver the metal and no rise in the futures arena.

  5. Why on earth is Australia buying gold from USA ?

  6. ” ….the overwhelming majority of U.S. gold exports are heading to Asia, India and the Middle East.”..

    In at least 2 places this is emphasized.

    You do realize that India and the Middle East are in Asia ?

  7. Paper gold will stop trading between $250 & $400 dollars while physical gold will flow between $50,000 & 130,000 per OZ.

  8. CFO point of view | May 20, 2014 at 10:58 am | Reply

    thinkaboutit,

    With each day passing by I’m closer and closer to FOFOA’s concept and I’m now almost sure, that this scenario will play out, to deplete GLD and week hands, reconcile all bets as low as possible, while physical will go to easterns nobodys who will appreciate it much at these prices. I only think, that the low price with available gold may be only above $1000, then all the further drop will be paper only with at the beginning rising premiums, and in second stage complete unavailability of metal.
    I plan to purchase below $1100 my last tranche 🙂

  9. All I want to know is how long the current charade can go on for…

  10. John Winston | May 20, 2014 at 6:54 pm | Reply

    In 2010 my wife inherited 19 numismatic gold coins (all St. Gaudens, don’t recall the quality). We’ve kept them for the last 4 years, but some have said they are little more than novelty items and we should have sold them when the price of gold peaked at $1900.

    Had we sold them, the money invested would have given us a darn good return since then. It is so confusing what to do, but we’re sure not going to get in the market now!

    What should we do with them and will they be worth anything if/when the SHTF? What is the best course of action to take now and in the future with these coins? Jim Sinclair said to hold on to them, but not why and I didn’t want to bother him with more questions.

    Thanks.

    • John – sell them…the sooner the weak hands sell the better. Those who have sites like this and an internet of information in front of them and don’t know why they hold gold can’t be helped.

      • Classic response from within the insular, petty and “SELF ABSORBED” faction of ‘gold bugs’ who have no interest in helping anyone but themselves… to what they foolishly believe to be a road to riches….

        yours will go right up on the wall of shame with several other choice nuggets of the same style of collectibles from the wacky world of gold n silver ‘nobodies’! But I think you will find… in time… Steve’s forum to be a little different than the tacky world you be used to participatin in, padre tio!

        good stuff – Dog eat dog… to the winner goes the spoils… devil take the hin’most!

        all grist for the mill – in examining the “Psychology of Precious Metals Holders [in the west]”!

        • if after 4yrs since they were given some coins but all he knows is Jim Sinclair says hold but he doesn’t know why…he doesn’t sound terribly interested. Although it would generally seem a good idea for the average person to diversity across stocks, RE, bonds, cash, and PM’s (some of each, not all of one)…but my guess is John has heard all this before? John might prefer to sell them and go more conventional or pay bills. If you hold something that everyone in the MSM tells you is bad and getting worse, you are likely to sell @ the bottom and be abused. If you don’t know why you own an insurance policy (PM’s) or if that policy is the right size for you…then either get more inquisitive and know why you do what you do or sell and get into something where you have more acumen and interest.

          • lemme get this straight… with all due respect, my esteemed Mr. No…

            guy asks an honest question stemming from admitted ignorance of the subject matter.

            the potential respondent has basically… three choices:

            a)………… stay silent;
            b)………… help the guy out… to the best of one’s ability… based pon the time-honored principle of ‘each one teach one;’
            c)………….slag the POOR SLOB for being one of the ‘uninitiated’ – who will never ‘git it’ – cause he hasn’t already signed on to the chosen narrative! Make him feel like a double idiot for having had the temerity to expose himself to the ridicule of the mighty few.

            Ok… we got it!

            No doubt you are one of those who expect folks to flock to the banner of the precious metals… cause of your great skill in explicating the reasons to do so.

            Case closed Sherlock!

          • Rogue, I’ve spoken to so many people like John who wonder if taking some portion of their assets and veering away from the consensus is wise…but damn if not a one can ultimately break away from the paradigm they’ve grown so used to…they don’t want to take the red pill and I’m not sure I can blame them. And maybe ultimately the safety will be in the herd and not in the contrarians…so yes, unless you are willing to suffer the slings and arrows of being “wrong” until just maybe you are very right…then sell and be done with it.

          • Mr N…

            the foot soldiers of any Army on record are never ‘terribly interested’ in the strategic visions of their leaders… for them… the chance of stuffing a few pieces of stolen loot from the corpses of their fallen enemy is the main choice of conversation mongst the campfires of the morrow’s battle.

            Instead…

            they respond to the individual bravery of their squadron/battalion/brigade commanders… on a totally spontaneous… yet well proven basis. Indeed, in the end… victory comes down to a few well chosen words of those – like unto our forebears[when men were still “men”] …. who receive their orders.. then advance towards the main force of the enemy, with no thought of looking back to see who

            follows.

            Are you a leader Sir?…[May 16th 1811 Battle of Albuera…Lieutenant Colonel Inglis of the 57th was severely wounded during the resistance by Houghton’s Brigade. He lay on the ground, refusing to be moved to the rear calling to his soldiers “Die Hard, 57th.”] …

            If So… and you are wounded by the current onslaught…

            allow me to suggest that you too, refuse to be removed to the rear… and instead, ENCOURAGE those under your command… for as long as you are able.

          • @ Rogue,

            “the foot soldiers of any Army on record are never ‘terribly interested’ in the strategic visions of their leaders… for them… the chance of stuffing a few pieces of stolen loot from the corpses of their fallen enemy is the main choice of conversation mongst the campfires of the morrow’s battle.”

            Was that the same for the Japanese soldiers who looted all the silver from China?

            Roo

    • You can always look at the most recent bubble and claim you’d have made a fortune had you just invested in it early. I left college 25 years ago but remember my first day clearly when I was told, “You will see people partying every night of the week. You just have to remember it is never the same people as the night before.”

      You can’t join every bubble party and those who try don’t make it past their freshman year. Gold is money and savings. Everything else is a risk asset. Decide whether or not you want to hold wealth or speculative bet.

      And most of all: you can NEVER be successful by taking the advice of others. If it were that easy we’d all be billionaires. We all must find our own way through this world. If you are giving any consideration to your friends who call those coins novelties then you don’t have the maturity for a life beyond a wage slave.

      Mike

    • John,

      The U.S. Treasury and Fed continue to prop up the entire market with their QE program. Things are going to get out of hand in the future as it pertains to the U.S. Dollar and fiat currencies. I believe peak oil is a big factor in the destruction of fiat money.

      Gold and silver will be some of the safest assets to own in the future. I see the majority of paper assets imploding in the future, and holding onto to your gold coins (and buying more) will turn out to be one of the best decisions you can make.

      steve

    • John,

      If they have significant numismatic value above gold value [assuming you can find an honest coin dealer that will assist you…and I don’t know where you are but I know one local to my area that also operates by mail] it may be worth selling to capitalize on that value. You could then buy more non-numismatic gold. Or with the gold to silver price ratio like it is they would buy a lot of silver [like Canadian Maple Leafs or American Silver Eagles.

      Either hold them or sell for numismatic value and re-invest in a larger quantity of gold or silver. But don’t have NO precious metals in you possession. That would be a decision you would regret in the future.

  11. And no gold made it into Germany? Their gold is headed a bit further east I’m affraid. Nice work Steve.

  12. I guess it never dawned on anyone that maybe we are seeing some of Germany’s gold being repatriated.

  13. Congratulations, Steve. You were right about shale gas.

    http://goo.gl/1yqxhm

  14. Did you guys see this: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil-20140521-story.html

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) just cut their forecasts for recoverable oil in the Monterey shale deposits by a MASSIVE 96%. So no the estimate goes from 13.7 billion barrels recovered to 600 million.

    That revision is in terms of today’s dollars. Maybe when oil is $500/barrel, then more of it will be recoverable. That is, if we still have an economy capable of the technological complexity and creating the capital for such an endeavor.

  15. Just so funny how people see that so differently. I guess time will show if USA will become energy exporter (I doubt). http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2014/5/21_John_Mauldin.html

    • Esko,

      I just listened to that KWN interview with John Mauldin and have to say… it’s a complete EMBARRISHMENT. I can’t believe he thinks $5 natural gas prices will bring on a great deal more supply, when energy analysts such as Art Berman and Bill Powers state that the break-even for the typical shale gas players is $7 mmbtu.

      John Mauldin used to be worth reading and listening to…. not any longer.

      steve

  16. Steve; Your thoughts on the news out of England that Barclays have been fined for “manipulating” the gold price and that at the same time, some ‘unknown’ entity dumped $450 million of notional gold futures onto the market, thus slamming the price, but only for five bucks! Oh yeah, silver got the same treatment, at the same time, for a dive of just a few cents!

    Look at the latest six month gold chart and you will find; (as of May 21, 2014)

    120 DMA is at 1281.19
    200 DMA is at 1299.21
    266 DMA is at 1310.71

    This is a difference of $29.52 between the lowest and highest daily moving average! When you average all the DMA’s you get $1297.04 now isn’t that interesting.

    Three different daily moving averages scattered over eight months, more or less, and you essentially get ONE moving average! Price manipulation? Not much!!!

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