The Gold Trade Expects A Higher, Not Lower Price Of Gold In 2014

By Gene Arensberg:

We at Got Gold Report have to believe that the gold trade now expects and is positioning for a higher, not a lower gold price in 2014.  The sudden, overly large reduction in the Producer/Merchant gross shorts this COT week is kind of an earthquake in that regard.

SRSrocco:  This is Guest Post by Gene Arensberg from the GotGoldReport site.  I have followed Gene’s work for years.  While I don’t believe in technical analysis as it pertains to candlestick charting or Elliot Wave Theory in a rigged market, Gene does excellent work charting the gold and silver traders positions.

According to Gene’s analysis, he believes the COT trading structure in the gold market is setting up for a higher price in 2014 and not a move towards $1,000 as some of the typical large banks have recently forecasted.  This is precisely why I posted this article on my site.

I believe the gold floor price is in the $1,200 area, which is about the same break-even cost for the gold miners as a group.  Once we include the continued high demand for the yellow metal, it seems highly unlikely the price will fall to the ridiculously low level of $1,000.

Of course, the LOW BALL FIGURES come from the very banks whose livelihood comes from stealing wealth from Americans via the Fraudulent Fiat Monetary Regime…. WHAT A SHOCKER.

 

COMEX Commercial Traders Covering Gold Shorts in a Hurry

by Gene Arensberg,

HOUSTON (GotGoldReport) – Data supplied by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, March 28, show that large commercial traders on the COMEX covered or offset 32,293 contracts of their net short positioning in one week –  a very large number.  That was as gold traded $44.69 or 3.3% lower to $1,310.81 for the Tuesday to Tuesday COT reporting week.

20140329 PM Net Gold

(Chart showing NET futures positions by traders the CFTC classes as Producers, Merchants, Processors and Users. Source:  CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold, GGR. Note: The Producer/Merchants (PM) are nearly always net short because they are primarily using futures to hedge. On this graph as the blue line rises the PM net short position is getting smaller and vice versa.)The Producer/Merchants include the largest bullion dealers, refiners, manufacturers, fabricators, jewelry makers and the bullion trading banks they end up trading through on the New York and London bourses.  In short, PM’s include much of the “gold trade” who use futures to hedge. 

This week’s huge reduction in commercial traders net short positioning almost equals a March 6, 2012 reduction of 32,677 lots when gold was then trading for $1675.  The previous example of an extremely large reduction occurred in August of 2008, during the heat of the financial crisis, when the PMs closed or offset a whopping 42,638 contracts with gold then $813. 

As for what it means, we can point to the fact that it is really pretty rare to see the Producer/Merchants reducing their hedges in anomalously high amounts.  We can check that notion through one half of the reporting – the gross short interest held by the Producer/Merchants which is shown in the graph below.

20140329 PM Shorts Gold

Chart showing gross short futures positions by traders the CFTC classes as Producers, Merchants, Processors and Users. Source:  CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold, GGR.)

First the obvious.   With gold having touched as high as $1390 earlier in the trading week, but by then, on Tuesday, having sold back down to the $1310 level (as shown in the graph below) apparently the largest, best funded and presumably the best informed traders of gold futures on the planet thought that gold had already moved lower enough to motivate them to reduce their hedges in a very big way.

20140329 Gold Graph

Now for the not so obvious.  In fact, it’s pretty much off the radar screen if you try to go looking for commentary about it on the Web. 

Refer again to the PM gross short position graph above for this point. Just the Producer/Merchant shorts are shown in isolation.   

Anything jump out at you right off the bat?  Go ahead, take a close look, but what I am talking about is about as simple as it gets…

Simply stated, with gold near $1300 in March of 2014 (now), the amount of gold hedged by the gold trade – the gold business players/operators – on the COMEX division of the CME — is at an extremely LOW level.  Simply stated the gold trade is not at all motivated to hedge gold with a $1300 handle, so says the graph. 

To quantify that, and looking at the chart we see that the previous low in gross shorts was during the financial crisis in 2008 when the PMs got all the way down to just 91,693 gross shorts (not much for an entire market).  Moving up to more recently, we see that on December 10, 2013 the PMs reported holding a miniscule 75,406 gross short gold contracts (with gold then $1261). 

And this past week?  Nearly the largest reduction in PM shorts in our records as the Producer/Merchants reduced their gross shorts by an enormous 34,721 contracts in one COT reporting week (from 121,662 down to just 86,941 shorts).  Hello. 

In more general terms just look at where the blue Producer/Merchant shorts line is “living” in a $1300 gold world at the moment.  Isn’t it at or near the very bottom of the graph?  And, doesn’t that mean that there is less, repeat less, motivation on the part of the gold trade to protect their natural long positioning with hedges? 

Yeah, we think so too here at Got Gold Report, regardless of what the bank analysts have been saying of late.  We all recognize they are merely talking their already short gold book and have more than one dog in the hunt.  Perhaps by looking at and interpreting what the industry is doing – with their own positioning over time – we can get a sense of their actual expectations, not just their talk. 

 So who has been pressing the down side – the short side of gold one might reasonably ask?   Well, take a look at the graph below, a snapshot of the traders the CFTC calls Swap Dealers – the cutthroat, mercenary banks that we happen to believe are led by the Goldmans of the trading world.

20140329 SD Shorts Gold

(Chart showing short futures positions by traders the CFTC classes as Swap Dealers.  Source:  CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold, GGR.)

Swap Dealer commercials increased their shorts by 14,172 contracts this past week, taking them up to a relatively quite high 144,546 short bets on gold futures, the highest since August of 2011. 

From what we see here and in the positioning of the U.S. banks in futures from last month we here at Got Gold Report have to believe that the gold trade now expects and is positioning for a higher, not a lower gold price in 2014.  The sudden, overly large reduction in the Producer/Merchant gross shorts this COT week is kind of an earthquake in that regard. 

Any way one wants to look at it, the gold trade got the heck out of a very large number of hedges on a not-all-that-big move lower for gold this week.  Sure does seem like they were in a hurry in that regard.

Before we forget the Swap Dealer “punchline,” recall that it was in no small part due to Swap Dealer short covering that the gold price skied up to $1900 in 2011, as the graph shows above.  The pink line (the gold price) hurtling higher while the blue line (the SD gross shorts) plunged off a vertical cliff.  It could be just a coincidence, of course, but today’s level of SD gross shorts is about where it was back then when the short covering party got started. 

That is all for now. 

Gene Arensberg for Got Gold Report

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32 Comments on "The Gold Trade Expects A Higher, Not Lower Price Of Gold In 2014"

  1. In 2012 Steve wrote an article titled The Forces that will Push Silver Over $100

    “There are tremendous forces at work that will push silver over $100 an ounce. Very few precious metal analysts understand all the forces that are at work. Some analysts focus on specific areas such as the gold-silver ratio and technical analysis, while others write about future investment and industrial demand. And then of course, we have the more unorthodox analysts who delve into the ongoing manipulation of gold and silver — a realization shared by the author of this article.”

    And then he goes on to explain how silver eagle sales forecast this

    • You have a quote followed by:

      “And then he goes on to explain how silver eagle sales forecast this”.

      What is the point you are trying to make with that sentence?

  2. The COT is the only trading indicator that actually works. If you overlay commercial net shorts with the gold or silver price, you will see that in the medium to long term there is an almost perfect correlation. And btw, COT analysis is fundamental rather than technical analysis, because it analyses what traders do (demand).

    I’ve been following Gene since 2009, 2010 or so. His analysis is what enabled me to participate in paper trading. Without it, all you can do is guess and hope.

  3. Another fundamental question is “Where will they get physical Gold from to sustain suppression in 2014”?

    In 2013, GLD gave up 1K Tons and the BOE 1.3K Tons. That CAN’T happen again. If the cartel wants to continue the game in 2014, it needs physical Gold. Apart from trying to convince weak hands to sell at these levels (And I believe that most physical is now in strong hands) where will the physical come from? Demand from China remains very strong and Gold sales in japan have taken off in tribute to “Abenomics” results.

  4. A few days ago Steve challenged me to find articles of his where I claimed that he touts silver as a buy. I finally found a few minutes to search google. His past articles are a rare gem in paranoia. His first 10 are an especially great read. One following his investment advice would be sorely lacking in investment funds these days.

    Of course he will never admit to pimping metal & losing 50-60% during the biggest bull stock market run of our lifetime.

    I mean,anyone even remotely believing what he prognosticates should be buying survival supplies & not PM’s

    • 2014,

      I lied. I said I wasn’t going to waste time replying, but I will make one exception here. Again, I do this for the benefit of other readers at not for you… as you already have your mind made up.

      If anyone wants to read ANY or ALL of my past articles, all you have to do is go to the MORE INFO TAB on the top of the site and hit PAST ARTICLES. You don’t have to try to find them… they are all in one easy to reach place.

      2014… I have been respectful with your answers, but you will not afford me the same. That being said, I NEVER STATED in any of my articles to BUY & SELL silver for short term gains. I never gave any BUY OR SELL PRICE RECOMMENDATIONS.

      My common theme has been to invest in the physical metals for the LONG TERM. Nothing has changed my mind since 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and today… except the financial system is exponentially worse.

      You have no idea of the global energy situation, which is why you can make such short-sighted assumptions. You are free to buy all the GUNS, BULLETS, FOOD and SUPPLIES to your heart’s desire… but I believe there are people in this world with a more intelligence to understand there is a place for the precious metals.

      You are welcome to ADD to the debate with intelligent discourse, on either side. But if you continue to just throw insults, I am going to start moderating comments. You made your point already.

      All the best,

      steve

  5. Steve I make a challenge to you right here. I’ll bet I own more physical PM than you do,although mine if for wholly different reasons. Put up?

    I don’t think you will because in fact I think you don’t own jack shit…

    Maybe 2 one ounce buffalo rounds and a fear mongering blog.

    • 2014 is a joke | March 31, 2014 at 9:05 am |

      @ 2014

      you seem a sad, angry troll of which there are many inhabiting the comment sections of many blogs and chat rooms. I think Steve’s motives and site are simply about attempting to build a framework within which to make sense of the world we now inhabit. Steve, unlike you, is trying to and willing to state his facts, his sources, and risk being right and occasionally wrong. This is how a dialogue and real learning takes place. Ideas based on data, on logic are put forward and debated, debunked, or accepted. And on and on.

      You seem only interested in attempting to destroy Steve, not add to the debate. Sad little troll.

  6. You’ll continue to dismiss me because i’n not typing fancy $4 words & blowhard charts from zero hedge & silver doctors while quoting made up terms such as ” implied net investment”

    There is a place for you.. Right there with Ted Butler,Jason Hommel,Peter Schiff & about 2000 amateurs such as yourself on youtube with their own videos.

    You’ve been punked at every turn by me merely quoting your own fear & loathing from past articles.

    Better look out the window,I think someone just drove by.. The banksters & NSA are on to you.

    • “You’ve been punked at every turn by me merely quoting your own fear & loathing from past articles.

      Better look out the window,I think someone just drove by.. The banksters & NSA are on to you”.

      It appears to me you have punked yourself at every turn. Better look in the mirror; those that recognize psychopathy are onto you.

  7. Wanna know why ASE sales are where they are? Care to admit that this is the LOWEST premiums they have been at in years? The competition for dealers is so strong that they are selling them for 39 cents over US mint cost

  8. roguefaction | March 31, 2014 at 12:46 am |

    Howie,

    Although many would suppose that your mission here is merely to wreak havoc…

    you seem to be finally getting around to paying some attention to the puck – AS WELL AS the nearest set of ribs to spear! This is good… because what will set SRSreport apart from all of the rest of the pm-related blogs is the owners’ willingness to entertain all side of the debate. And not shy away from controversy.

    The factionalist divide tween fanboy(too obvious to need mention) sites and their opposite numbers(screwtapefiles for example) has led to a desertification of the fertile ground that could bloom under the irrigation of intelligent discussion. That is Steve’s opportunity… and I hope he’ll come back to remembering that after a good night’s sleep… rather than take your latest effusion as one poke to many!

    Those of us who believe in his mission can carry some of the weight here – via commentary that refuses to be stifled and boxed into the usual mediocrity of worn-out, dogmatic preaching to the choir… and as opposed to the whiny, moronic complaining that has become the new normal here on the part of those who don’t like to read the simply far-side fantasizing of the hardest core of the nutjobs. I have no doubt that Steve would already have finished and published his long awaited ‘special reports’ if he wasn’t getting constantly assailed by insistent variation on the themes of “if you don’t do what I want, I’m taking my toys and going home|||||||||….. or, Mommy, I don’t want that boy in my sandbox||”>>>>pathetic.

    There’s nothing about Howie ‘2014s’ challenge here that should cause anyone sleeplessness… instead, it’s an opportunity to move ahead with real answers to real questions…. what a novel concept in the arid world of pm commentary!

    To that end, I will simply address one of the most obvious probes set out by our resident ‘badboy’ … leaving lot’s more space for others to finally step up and carry some weight here in responding to the others.

    Howie… your question about premiums – does not require a rocket scientist to answer it. As a non-rocket scientist… but rather, small biznessman, retired from the field after many years of slogging… I can assure you that the answer is as easy as shooting into an empty net after the goalies been pulled.

    If, as a buyer, I knew in April that drought, frost or storm had diminished the crop of west coast apples to the point where the forthcoming harvest would be cut to a fraction of the usual volume, I would step up my buying from my key supplier of said item… so as to establish my firm in the salesmans mind as a key client for whom allotment would be forthcoming. It’s always about relationships. Your salesguy knows you are on his short list of those who will move product when he needs to push a trailer load out the door, in turn, he never says nocando when you need to keep a chain customer happy in a tight market.

    Anyone with a simply empirical understanding of the dynamics of the silver market of the moment will know that supply gaps are going to open up sometime soon… it doesn’t require the conspiracy mania of the rabid silverbug Schlitzies here to predict that… a mere bottleneck in the blanks manufacturing segment will do the trick… [nor will it necessarily lead to ‘to da moon’ time in the resulting silver price!!!!] It just means supply will be tight and those who have been buying volume will be allocated accordingly… and therefore get to sell sufficient supply at the high and higher premiums those market conditions will engender… to more than make up for the low-ball pricing now. Welcome to small buziness 101 Howie!

    And thanks for being here… if nobody else appreciates you…hey! Those who knew you best always said you were one of the most naturally talented players to ever grace the game… had you chosen to play rather than perform!

    and then there was Clarence Campbell – who famously called YOU..“”the worst detriment to the NHL to ever lace up a pair of skates.” I’ll go with the much more savvy Frank Sinatra – who simply called you “Howie baby.” “Howie baby”… I’ll still throw you in the box for HIGH SCHTICKING here – but keep shooting those questions at the net… and you got a spot on the team here///IMHO!

  9. Risk being wrong? Steve has never been right. Nothing he’s predicted/duped people into has been a good call.

    His never ending quest to track down the boogeyman and blame it on some will ass return on energy formula keeps me rolling in laughter. I applaud his effort to roll every societal problem into one single item to blame.

    The man has never been right. Get it? Read the past articles. He’s just like every shuck and jive silver drum beater when you point this out. They say you aren’t thinking long term enough.

    • So Steve “has never been right”? “duped people into”? He’s not selling anything. His column or guess postings make you laugh? Strange reaction.

      That’s crazy talk.

      You seem to have a lot of anger. Good luck with that being a solution…for anything.

      What do you want? if you don’t like his web site and what appears on it why visit it or read it?

      Your last post is pure personal attack. Do you think that contributes in a meaningful way?

  10. SRSrocco represented by Proverbs 8:10
    Receive my instruction, and not silver; and knowledge rather than choice gold.
    Proverbs 8:9-11 (in Context) Proverbs 8 (Whole Chapter) Other Translations 2014 represented by Ezekiel 7:19
    19 They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed: their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the Lord: they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their bowels: because it is the stumbling block of their iniquity.

  11. The chart, showing producer/merchant short positions in gold (blue line), also looks to have a high correlation with the gold price. Therefore, if the short position goes lower so should the gold price, or it would if the blue line was a leading indicator.

    However the article suggests that the blue line is a contrary leading indicator saying that if the blue line goes down, gold price will rise. I don’t see that in this chart.

    Also, if the price of gold is heading lower, you can’t hedge that position by being short, so you would unwind the hedge or move long.

    Just a thought.

  12. Steve St. Angelo. November 5, 2009

    The Peak of World Silver Production may be just around the corner due to a falling EROI (energy returned on energy invested). This will also be true for most industrial metals. I may go as far as to say, if the Global Economy does not make a full recovery shortly (which I doubt), 2008 could be the all time peak for world silver production. At least, the world production of silver will be in a plateau as unconventional oil supplies start to peak and decline.

    I stated in the beginning of the article that I believe the world silver production peak may have occurred in 2008. The disintegration of the global economy has put a damper on base metal production along with by-product silver. I don’t see the global economy recovering anytime soon with money printing and derivative game playing as the primary source of real capital

    • @ 2014:

      If Steve is so wrong, and you are so right, why don’t you get into the business of publicly stating your calls? Anyone who thinks they can call the market correctly all the time, is either lying, or selling something.

      While plenty of the goldbugs have been wrong in their calls for the last couple of years, it doesn’t change the fundamental picture of the current economy one iota.

      That said, if PM’s are set to tank, please tell me what has changed the underlying fundamentals behind Gold/Silver in the long-run?

      I have yet to see any evidence that:

      1. Bank solvency has been restored through anything other than creative accounting.
      2. Government spending has been brought into line with government revenues.
      3. Central banks no longer need to “goose the markets” with money-printing.

      Forget EROI, or manipulation at the LBMA/COMEX, BRICS buying, or any of the other theories, and just focus on those 3 items I illustrated. Has anything changed?

  13. How did that 2008 peak silver call work out?

  14. As the quote says “MAY may be just around the corner”. Not definitely around the corner. “…2008 COULD be the all time peak…”

    So enlighten us won’t you? Supply the most accurate source[s] for world silver production figures for 2008 through 3013.

    And if silver production increased in ’09, 2010, 2011 [no surprise with the price spike], 2012, or 2013, SO WHAT? WHAT HAVE YOU PROVED? That someone’s educated guess [hedged with MAY and COULD didn’t come out as projected in November 2009?

    People express opinions; opinions change or the fundamentals reasons for an opinion at one time changes.

    Your post accomplishes or proves nothing other than you have a compulsion to be right, or make someone else appear wrong.

  15. Adolf Hitler | March 31, 2014 at 6:12 pm |

    Steve,
    Calling a top, like calling a bottom, is extremely difficult. So even if your call on peak silver in 2009 (let’s assume you made that call) turned out to be wrong, I would NOT blame you. But what’s your current view of the silver production in the coming years, especially that from the by-product side.
    As for 2014, you can just ignore him. Although I don’t like your seeking advice from charlatans like Harvey Organ or Antal Fekete, your analysis of the supply and demand is informative in my opinion.

  16. Might be wrong? Every year since has been more than 2008. GMAFB…

    He never even mentions the Bakken in his energy theories. I guess he’s pretending that isn’t going on.

  17. I’ve never said I think PM’s will tank.. What I am critical of is the never ending shilling and attempts to blame every single thing that is going on, on some type of boogeyman energy theory that’s so completely far fetched it’s laughable.

    He fails to mention when he’s wrong or new oil fields come online,completely dismisses other forms of energy..

    I even read one of his older posts where he says farmers more productive when using hand plows ..He goes off on wild tangents like that and it discredits anything he might actually get right.

  18. As I stated… I am moderating comments when all we are doing is throwing around insults. I don’t want it coming from either site.

    steve

    • It’s a trick bag.

      Discredit the message any way possible
      BS drops the viscosity of the useful data
      Time wasted countering slander
      Multiple voices to set up a crossfire

      Steve, you could shut the comments down completely, and I’ll still be here reading.

      • roguefaction | April 1, 2014 at 3:32 am |

        Well Played.

        No need to shut down… or even moderate, comments. That’s poor EROI. Never let your opponent set the agenda.

        Howie has ventured two suppositions so far(well one is a mere question posing as a supposed indictment): here’s how it’s played out – 0 for 2.

        ASE premiums… dismissed, with no rebuttal from Butthead.
        Bakken fields not discussed by Steve? Negative as shown by above commentator. Punked agin!

        “I even read one of his older posts where he says farmers more productive when using hand plows ..He goes off on wild tangents like that and it discredits anything he might actually get right.”

        You’re staring at strike number three now Howie. I’ll take this one.

        Here’s a quote from Steve’s EROI FACTOR heading –

        “pre-industrial farming methods that utilize manual labor or horse and plow provide between 1-5 calories of energy (food) for every calorie of energy consumed in planting and harvesting. modern high-tech food production industry… consumes a staggering 10 calories of energy for every calorie of energy (food) delivered to the market.”

        Refute it… or shut down clown. There are a number of USDA and county extension service studies freely available that document the relative efficiency of Amish\Mennonite horse powered farming setups and the rate of return crop per crop… compared to their high powered neighbors. I will not go to the trouble of digging them up and quoting the specifics unless you “be a man” & come back to the plate with something to rebut what’s been said so far.

        I’m lovin this! We can run through a whole precis of the EROI thesis with your help. You run away from any followup to your fantasies..xactly like when the Sheik bailed from the ring when facing Lou.Thesz in Chicago and hid under a bus. No matter/One by one… you gonna get tagged out Howie… keep it up! Boogeyman gonna get ya~!

    • “As I stated… I am moderating comments when all we are doing is throwing around insults. I don’t want it coming from either site”.

      When you want to cure an illness you remove the underlying cause. Sometimes as in this case there is one underlying cause that is produceing the symptoms.

      The rest want to contribute, learn, or exchange ideas.

      • roguefaction | April 1, 2014 at 7:31 am |

        “When you want to cure an illness you remove the underlying cause. Sometimes as in this case there is one underlying cause that is produceing the symptoms”

        That’s true. So let’s treat the cause. HOWIE ‘2014’ is neither the illness nor it’s cause…

        his aggressive attacks are a symptom of the precious metals communities’ failure to dig deep enough into the malaise which ails their societies… and come up with some real answers to the questions which his jibes are an echo of.

        Moderation(censorship) is just giving a pain reliever for a toothache. Without the necessary probing, evaluation, and then diagnosis, the pain is not going to go away!

        You can go that route… and make this site into just another nest where the fanboys congregate in order to either pat themselves on the back for their great wisdom, or commiserate over there bravery in bearing the cross of victimhood imposed by ‘THE CARTEL’ ‘THE BANKSTERS’ ‘THE SUA’ THE PILGRIMS… or whatever be the soup de jour!

        Or, one can get to grips with the absence of real investigation and examination. That’s the potential of this site.

        Homeopathy treats illness via the principle of like treating like. Poison distilled into cure. There’s plenty enough of ‘allopathic’ sites out there that offer ‘hospice care’ to the weak and wounded of the metals brigade. Why don’t we try something a little different?

        “contribute, learn, or exchange ideas”/// and never ever be afraid to take on a challenge whilst doing so!

        Adelante!

        • There are other approaches rather than allopathy and homeopathy too. As a 30+ year doctor I know this.

          “his aggressive attacks are a symptom of the precious metals communities’ failure to dig deep enough into the malaise which ails their societies… and come up with some real answers to the questions which his jibes are an echo of.”

          I disagree. This not someone here to learn or contribute. This is his need to be right, or be right by making another wrong, or be disruptive.

          This site is better than several other sites that I agree with you, are fluff for fans.

          Whether censored or not isn’t up to either of us. But if the prattle continues readers will certainly censure. And comments being focused on censure isn’t the type of discourse Steve wants i don’t think.

          • roguefaction | April 1, 2014 at 11:17 pm |

            Glad to know that there’s a Doctor in the house!

            The way that Howie and some of the more emphatic of his detractors have knocked themselves out with wild jabs and hooks… we are going to need steady application of smelling salts – and perhaps a bit of ringside treatment for contusions and concussion!

            No dispute as to what Howie is ‘trying’ to do. It’s what ‘we’ do in response that is under the microscope here Doc… I’d be very surprised if in your long medical career, you haven’t treated some ‘problem patients’ with a dose of good ol fashioned psychology… and then left them to marvel at their ‘miracle cure’!!!!

            We can turn Howie’s mudpies into 24carat gold… or descend into the mudbath with him! That IS INDEED ‘up to us’! Properly treated…this outbreak of adolescent acne will just go away on it’s own. You’ve been carrying more than your own weight here in that regard… I think we are indeed on the same page!

Comments are closed.