STUNNING DEVELOPMENT: India Imports Record Amount Of Silver In November

As the price of silver fell to a new low in November, India imported a record amount of the shiny metal.  Demand for the physical metal was so strong, India nearly imported the same amount of silver in November than it did for the entire year in 2009.

Koos Jansen at BullionStar.com, published a great article, India Silver Imported 6,789t YTD, showing just how much silver was imported into the country in October and November.

I took some of his recent data from that article and updated my graphs.  India imported a staggering 1,254 metric tons (mt) of silver in November and 1,243 mt in October for a total of 2,467 mt.  If we break down India’s silver imports on a quarterly basis, we can see just how big these numbers really are:

Quarterly Indian Silver Imports 2014

In just two months (Oct & Nov), India imported twice as much as in Jan-Apr, and a great deal more than the following two quarters.  If India imports at least 700 mt in December, the fourth quarter will be nearly double the amount imported during the second highest quarter, Apr-Jun.

As Koos stated in his article, India has already imported a record 6,789 mt of silver Jan-Nov.  If India does import 700 mt of silver in December, the total would reach 7,400+mt for the year.  This would be an increase of 27% compared to the previous record of 5,819 mt set in 2013.

Indian Silver Imports 2007-2014 UPDATE

As I mentioned at the top of the article, India imported 1,254 mt of silver just in November, compared to a total of 1,274 mt for 2009.  Furthermore, Indian silver imports in October and November (2,497 mt) were higher than the total in 2012 at 1,922 mt.  These are big figures indeed.

Just to give the reader a sense of how much silver India imported, lets compare it to total global silver mine supply:

2014 Estimated Global Silver Mine Supply = 825 Million oz

2014 Estimated Indian Silver Imports = 234 Million oz

India’s estimated 2014 silver imports at 7,400 mt equals 234 million oz (Moz) or 28% of total world mine supply of 825 Moz in 2014 (GFMS estimate with my adjustment).

As I stated in my article, BREAKING: Significant Drawdown of U.K. Silver Inventories Due To Record Silver Demand:

According to GFMS Silver Interim Report released on Nov 18th:

Meanwhile demand for silver bars and coins has soared in recent weeks as bargain hunting retail investors returned to the silver market after a disappointing first half of the year. Nowhere is this more evident than in India where imports of silver are up by 14% year-on-year for the January to October period and set for an annual record. With imports in the first ten months totalling a massive 169 Moz many vaults in the UK, traditionally the largest supplier to India, have seen significant drawdowns, leading to more supply flowing from China and Russia.

If London was already suffering a drawdown of silver inventories in October from huge Indian demand, how bad is the situation after another 1,254 mt was imported by India in November?  How tight is the wholesale silver market now?

The world has consumed its huge stockpile of above ground silver for the past 3-4 decades. and I believe will soon be faced with a serious problem.  And that is, where will the market acquire silver stocks to offset annual deficits and increased demand in the future?

Currently, investors are swimming in worthless paper assets up to their eyeballs.  This is very unfortunate as when the time comes to move into physical assets such as gold and silver to protect their wealth, there will be very little to go around… EXCEPT at much HIGHER PRICES.

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13 Comments on "STUNNING DEVELOPMENT: India Imports Record Amount Of Silver In November"

  1. Steve, thanks for all your hard work this year keeping us stackers updated on things most people could not figure out how to find!!!

    Mike F.

    • Mike F,

      I appreciate the feedback. I was quite surprised to see that much silver imported into India during Oct & Nov. That was nearly 2,500 mt in just two months… which is a cool 80+ million oz. At some point, the demand for wholesale silver will overrun the limited supply.

      It’s not a matter of IF, but WHEN.

      steve

  2. Great update, Steve!

    Enjoy this time of year with the family and friends.
    You truly deserve it!

    Thank you for the effort, time and info you so generously donate every week!

    Marry Christmas and a Happy and CALM 2015!

    Be well,

    Petro

  3. Hi Steve,
    Loving numbers (truthful ones!) and being as accurate in analyzing them as you indeed are, I thought this:

    http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2014/11/prove-this-wrong.html

    would be useful to you (if you have not digested it already) since it “embellishes” your ERoEI, or EROI admiration…
    I’d be indeed delighted to know your thoughts on it…detailed ones please, not just generic type. As you probably understood from my replies on Ron’s site and here, I know the topic akin to few ones.

    Thank you, again!
    Be well,

    Petro

    P.S.: disclaimer: I had very little to do (indirectly) with what’s written there…not my real name…hope you understand…

  4. Great news! But you are short in your article. WHERE DID INDIA GET ALL THAT MUCH SILVER?
    If from United Kingdom, “WHERE DID THEY GET IT?” Combining all your articles regarding
    miners production, silver coin demand, industrial demand, there simply is not enough silver
    being mined to supply the listings of supply/demand on the Silver Institute website. If I count
    India and China then someone’s numbers are in error. So far, I’m seeing by these reports that
    silver demand is close to 350,000,000 ounces more that 2014 production and growing. Yet, I
    see no delay in miners shipments nor is there a premium. There is a 20%+ premium in 2014
    silver eagles but no delay. I can get all I want in a week.

    • Joe

      Check this out, you can buy all the silver you want from PSLV at spot pricing. Friday you could’ve bought silver at less than the spot price of silver IN SIZE!! I’ve stopped buying ASE’s and instead I’m buying PSLV with the dream of taking delivery when I reach their milestones for redemption.

      Completely agree with you. There are NO shortages anywhere on the planet. Not even a perceived potential bottleneck in the supply chain. Whoever is selling silver at these prices is selling LOTS of silver at these prices!

      My LCS is packed with inventory. I could buy thousands of ASE’s but the premiums are so crazy even my LCS guy would say I am crazy to buy ASE’s.

      It is a damn shame what is happening to the miners and the mining countries. Mexico has to be taking a real hit with both oil and silver falling like a rock. But I posted a note elsewhere today that Fortuna is EXPANDING silver production like no tomorrow. They used an expected realized price of $16 so that might be a problem.

      Oh well, if the miners don’t mind dumping silver on the market I guess we shouldn’t mind either.

    • The math of supply/demand does not seem to add up. There is a lot of recycled silver but it still doesn’t seem to balance the equation.

      But we know ore graded are down. Low pay per ounce to the miners along with some juniors probably going belly up will reduce production.

      At some point there will be shortage, massive shortage. But not now.

  5. It seems from the variations in annual numbers that this is mainly investment silver rather than for industrial use – say 80%. Add that to global coin production and investment bars..and what do you get? To me from dodgy memory we seem to be looking at 410+Moz or about half annual mine production. So where is the industrial silver coming from then?

  6. I happen to be in India right now, I like to talk to Indians about what they spend money on or invest in. It seems they really like real estate and gold but not as many are talking about silver right now. I can’t help but think what will happen when a majority of them start buying silver. I can’t help but think if the world moves to an asset backed standard like gold/silver India might become the next consumer nation of the world.

  7. The history approaches the next turn of wealth redistribution – now, when the East once again accumulated huge wealth, the West will have the tempting opportunity to redistribute it in its favour once again using old, proven methods.

    • I doubt that the West will be able to regain silver and gold from the East with old, proven methods, especially since China and India both possess ICBMs. Of course, it doesn’t have to turn into a shooting war, but since China has a large number of citizens who possess software skills (think hackers) China could cause quite a bit of trouble to the West without firing a shot. India could do the same if it needed to.

  8. Love your site SRSrocco, its very informative, thank you for providing data found nowhere else.

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