While silver is completely off the radar to most investors, it will turn out to be one of the best investments to own as the massive amount of leverage in the stock and real estate market evaporates. Unfortunately, investors, today are no longer capable of recognizing when an asset displays a HIGH or LOW risk. Thus, fundamental indicators are ignored as the investors continue the insane strategy of “Buying the Dip.”
A prudent investor is able to spot when an asset becomes a high risk and then has the sense to move his or her funds into one that is a lower risk. However, the majority of investors do not follow this practice as they are caught by surprise when a Market Crash occurs… again and again and again. Even worse, when investors are shown that the indicators are pointing to assets that are extremely risky, then ignore it and continue business as usual.
Today, complacency has turned investors’ brains into mush. They are no longer able to discern RIGHT from WRONG. So, when the market really starts to correction-crash, they will hold on to their stocks waiting for Wall Street’s next BUY THE DIP call.
Regardless, if we can understand the fundamentals, then we would be foolish to keep most of our investment funds in Stock and Real Estate assets. The following chart follows the KISS Principle – Keep It Simple Stupid:
You don’t need to be a highly-trained financial or technical analyst to spot the HIGH vs. LOW-RISK assets in the chart above. Hell, you don’t even need to see the figures in the chart. If we understand that all markets behave in cycles, then it’s common sense that asset prices will peak and decline. We can plainly see that both Real Estate and Stocks asset values are near their top while the silver price is closer to its bottom.
Thus, assets that are near a top are HIGH RISK, and those near a bottom are LOW RISK. It’s really that simple.
Now, if we look at each chart separately, we can easily spot which assets will be the BIG LOSERS in the future. According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve data (FRED), the U.S. Median Home Sales Price of $324,550 is nearly $100,000 higher than the bubble in 2007:
So, the current U.S. Median Home Sales Price is 30% higher than its previous peak in 2007 and 52% above its low in 2009. If I was going to invest in real estate, the best time to do so at a bottom (LOW RISK), then at the top (HIGH RISK). However, Americans are piling into new and existing homes because they believe the prices will continue higher forever. Unfortunately for American homeowners and buyers, the Fed’s current policy to increase interest rates over the next year is not positive for the real estate market.
While U.S. Median home prices are 52% higher than their low in 2009, the Dow Jones Index is a staggering 220% higher during the same period. If U.S. real estate values are HIGH RISK, then the Dow Jones Index must be EXTREMELY RISKY:
Going by the 200 Month Moving Average (MA), shown in red, the Dow Jones Index is 11,000 points higher, or 45% over-valued. However, if we went by the Dow Jones low in 2009, then the index is 73% over-valued. Again, when assets are way above their baseline values, then they enter into a HIGH-RISK category. It doesn’t matter if U.S. home prices or the broader stock markets continue to move higher for a while, they are still highly risky assets.
Now, if we look at the Silver Price, we see a much different setup. Not only is the silver price way off its highs set back in 2011, but it is also just 40 cents above its 200 MA:
With the silver price being 2% above its 200 MA, it is clearly the LOWEST RISK asset compared to the Dow Jones or U.S. residential real estate values. Furthermore, the Commitment Of Traders (COT) Report suggests that the very low net commercial silver short position also indicates that the silver price is bottoming:
The chart above shows that the Commercials present net short position in silver is back to its cycle lows. While the Commercials could continue to liquidate more short contracts, as the silver price falls a bit lower, we are closer to forming a bottom than a top. So, if we use logic, then the silver price is the LOW-RISK asset to purchase and hold while U.S. residential real estate and stocks are HIGH-RISK assets to sell.
Of course, it will take time for these markets to correct, but nothing goes up or down forever. However, the horrible irony of how the markets will play out in the future is to watch investors get wiped out because they are unable to distinguish between HIGH and LOW-RISK assets.
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I can’t wait to read the perma-bulls’ comments on this one, cause you know silver will be $17 100 years from now LOL
I meant perma-bears!
Don’t you hate those Freudian slips…lol
Steve, truly can’t wait to become a patron supporter; Need spot Silver @ $45.
One could read that as “$ 17 000, years from now”. I could live with that and it is possible, as outlandish as it may sound. My target for silver is a 3:1 G/S-price ratio – should gold go to 51k once the fraudulent PM paper break, and TA DAAA… 🙂 GLTY+A
Silver, in its physical form, is a traveller on the physical plane. The monetary plane doesn’t have the surplus energy to keep it elevated. Undervalued? I don’t know. Things will speed up when cracks appear for all to see. The fogs of fiat. The fogs of fiat. The fogs of fiat. Be careful all…
I call hot stool (BS) on this one – the “monetary plane” sells/trades 200++ times more silver ounces than there are in existence (not even considering how many times the fizz they hold was re-hypothecated), to keep the price from shooting to 1666 and beyond. For this the CONeX/LBMA-paper default needs to happen, but it is in the making due to the current re-run on the London gold pool II. When gold gaps higher, silver will likely follow suit as there are only roughly 5 ounces of physical silver above ground for every ounce of gold; “investment grade silver” -bars, coins & rounds of > .995 purity – much less so.
CHX, that’s correct. The whole world flies monetary as we speak. It is when the oxygen masks come down, silver will experience its value. Not before. This goes for everything we know, own, want and think.
Steve,
Always an interesting read. Don’t want to give you a big head but your website has become my favorite and I bet for a lot of other people as well. Silver was the common medium of exchange for ancient Rome and in to the late 19th century. I wonder if it will once again resume its role.
Gold is the money of kings
Silver the money of gentlemen
Barter the money of peasants
Debt the money of slaves
Doc Rich,
I am glad you find some of the material on the SRSrocco Report site interesting. I don’t know if silver will ever become money as it was in the past, but it will at least be one of the best stores of value compared to most assets that will be declining for years to come.
steve
Steve,
Got a big belly laugh when you said “Thus, fundamental indicators are ignored as the investors continue the insane strategy of “Buying the Dip.”
I know you were referencing the “markets” but I have been buying the dip in silver for over a year and continued this week. I consider it a gift from the gods that the bullies (JPMorgan et al) keep the lid on the price of silver and the price, even with premiums, is so close to actual costs. I buy as much as my meager social security check allows. This opportunity will not continue for very long as the credit market continues to degrade, interest rates are climbing with truly no end in sight (I just completed the refinance of all my real estate mortgages this week) and they will eventually lose control of their manipulations when the demand for physical overwhelms the actual supply. JPMorgan feels insulated because of their 6 million ounce holdings. Any short trap they get caught in they can cover with actual delivery. Others manipulators, however, don’t have that depth, nor does the Comex.
To all you whiners and moaners, take heart the time is rapidly approaching.
Buy for cash and stash. If you don’t hold it you don’t own it.
SteveW
what if rates fall?
They cant allow them to rise and they control the system
Then we will all eventually experience the monetary and cultural thrills of Venezuela.
Can’t ??? 10 year yields roughly doubled since the last IR-bottom !!!
My sentiments exactly. I have a sneaky feeling that one day we might not say “I wish I could get more dollars for my silver” but rather “gee I don’t think I want any dollars at all for my silver thank you”. Silver will someday go “no ask”.
Steve,
A real good measurement to see if silver is cheap just look at the silver to gold ratio
is now 80:1 that is historical pretty high. Not only silver is very cheap the same it is for
many other commodities compared to the stockmarkets/real estate. Cycles are not dead they will turn so one must move into the right assets. Most will only do it when it is too late as usually.
Pieter,
I couldn’t agree with you more. The RULE OF THUMB going forward is to PROTECT WEALTH, not try to leverage it higher.
steve
What about the ratio of the costs of mining gold and the cost of mining gold. I thought your view was that the prioce these goods is dictated by their mining costs?
error the former should be silver- sorry
I’M CURRENTLY A LICENCED COIN DEALER IN MY RESPECTIVE STATE AND DON’T HAVE TO REPORT THE SELLING OF US EAGLES OR UNDER $1000 WORTH OF PRE-65 US COINS IN A CALENDAR YEAR.
BUT MY FEAR IS THE GOVERNMENT WILL CHANGE THIS LAW ONCE SILVER DEMAND AND CONSEQUENTLY SPOT PRICE INCREASES OCCUR.
IF YOU REALLY ARE I’D BE INTERESTED IN WHAT YOU OBSERVE AND HOW THE SALES ARE GOING… INFO FROM THE FRONT ARE ALWAYS INSIGHTFUL.
PETER PAGUARO,
Thanks for sharing your insight. However, I believe the Federal Government’s powers will become less of an issue as U.S. oil production collapses. Which means, large entities will suffer the most during the collapse of oil production. Thus, the U.S. Govt will become more powerless to enforce policy in the future.
steve
Is it that investors can no longer discern right from wrong, or is it that investors realize that markets are manipulated? TPTB want to keep stocks and real estate high, and silver at/near cost of production. And they manipulate the markets to make it so. It doesn’t help that both the banksters AND industries that need silver both want it as cheap as possible. The only way silver really takes off is if either 1) it takes on a monetary role, or 2) there is a physical delivery shortage. Neither of those things are happening anytime soon. I say all this, even as I hold PMs, crypto, and almost no stock – but I also realize the reality of the situation.
SD,
Excellent post.
No offense, but this is such a tiresome pitch, even from a silver seller. Instead of talking about the different possible realities of what silver would be like under post collapse scenarios or even reality of using it pre collapse we just get this, the old soft shoe.
Which is pumping silver by comparing it to the extremely brain dead options of stocks, real estate, whatever. Like wtf cares what those idiots do? Continually saying silver is much safer then stocks etc is like saying its much safer to jump from 20 feet onto cement then to jump from 100. Or your much better off shooting yourself in the foot then the head.
It’s a phony comparison meant to control you.
I’m not in the “you can’t eat it” camp totally but there’s a lot around Silver that’s never discussed here and the few times I’ve tried to mention something minor have been ignored. Except my last attempt just got a strawman arguement/statement from Steve. So have given up and won’t start now.
Suffice it to say that if you follow the logic of what Steve is saying out to it’s common sense conclusions one could easily conclude Silver is a waste of money. One could be wrong in this conclusion, I’m not pushing it, but i can see it is one that is being totally ignored. Can only say that I often struggle thru an article here only to experience the mention of silver at the end as jarring.
Guess what, dear reader. We live in a matrix and under a more oppressive tyranny then humans have ever experienced and we are still pre collapse. The more so because so artfully hidden.
You are not free men and women, for whom spirit created silver
For only one minor point, transacting in Silver will become illegal when it’s manipulation becomes impossible. This is as certain as the fact the dollar will go away. But we may have stretches of several xtreme deflation years where rice is 10 cents/lb and a stack of jacksons or washingtons will be more valuable then that silver that the gov. will execute you for if you try to trade it. Even in the mildest of scenarios it will be taxed into infinity. Because they hate it almost as much as they do their own children.
Yes, you may have more options then if invested in stocks as is often said, but maybe far fewer then if had put your 100k elsewhere.
Only one minor angle and maybe not valid. Just tired of this repetitive retarded comparison, like that’s all there is. and it’s wrong. Disembowel the intelligent with doom, then offer easy hopium.
Really though, since this site not set up for discussions it’s better if subject not mentioned much or at least in same way.
Just sayin….
Hope you don’t have any guns in the house…
Frank,
While you may think this website is only meant for you, think again. The SRSrocco Report website receives 40% new EYEBALLS every day. So, while you are free to leave your opinion, why don’t you stop being so selfish in thinking the world revolves around you only.
steve
Honestly I read and re-read your post twice. You’d be amazed at how much BS I didn’t catch the first time….
I believe that silver is not such an underdog like many are stating because when really sh*t hits the fan this times and we have the Mother of all Crisis than I think that the industry will not need silver like they use now because when this hits, there will not be much production and there will also not be many people buying new stuff and so I follow China and Russia example of buying more gold than silver. They now that something big is coming because this old system is overdue and this comes with big historical changes in the world and I think the gold will be number 1 to hold and not silver. And I see it ONLY as an asset for the people while IN the crisis and not after because we are going to live in a whole different world in now and 10 years and all the speculations of markets, PM’s, Crypto’s,… will go away because we need a durable civilization and not one with all this BS because the other camp is right to say that we cannot eat silver, gold, crypto, markets,… and so it has no uses anymore in a more aware civilization and the masses are done when this crisis hits and not the same story like we have see in the last crisis – We change a little bit here and there and after a couple of shit-years we going slowly out of it and then it’s back to the old school of living and working – this will stop sooner than later I think and then you will not better being holding PM’s or you can show them in your house as I reminder of the bad-old days…
And let be honest we all know that there is an elite that has corrupted the civilization with al this nonsense of being in power and when they also are done, than it’s a whole new ballgame here on Earth.
WOW just WOW…are you nucking futs, why the medicinal aspects of silver alone blow your post to smithereens!
We will see Loren when this crash happens… and the adverse effects of silver are not to mild for us https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_uses_of_silver
Is this article made by a salesman of Silver ? Same style as politicians use.
Since it shows silver statistics from top and the alternatives from bottom it seems likely. What else could be the reason ? Most articles here re interesting therefore this is a pity.
If silver is compared in same time range as competition the picture is totally different.
It is unfortunate that these kind of strange information makes reader not to trust the sender of information.
I’ll bet all my silver that English isn’t your first language. Please post in your original tongue, I will use on-line translator so maybe, just maybe it will make more sense.
Frank & Christer – if its such a “tiresome pitch” why don’t you head over to http://www.peakprosperity.com to see what you can do to inspire yourself & others with a proactive plan.I like ALL of Steves informative articles!
R.M
United Kingdom
I doubt if silver will be money again. Why? Because it is too valuable. Most likely it will become a very valuable strategic metal which the govt will demand but will reward you highly to turn it in. I’ve been collecting silver for the last 20 years. The only regret I have is trading in a few Bitcoin for silver early last year. If I would have only waited, I could have gotten 10x as much silver with that trade.
GLP, you have a very good point here, it take 500 ounces of silver to build a cruise missile!!!
Unfortunately, there is not enough silver out there to be common coinage again. They had to stop using silver in the 1960’s because it wasn’t physically possible anymore. People knew this and began hoarding uncirculated rolls of dimes, quarters and halves beginning in the mid 1950’s. All governments were forced to stop common change silver coinage. So yes, silver is a bit rare, so rare it can’t be used for our money anymore.
They needed it for all of the tech that was coming on line. This was more important to THEM than using it for money.
Military, Medical Industrial complex, Computer age, Space race, Automobiles, Appliances, etc.
Without silver to make the most critical connections, all of the above would be doa.
BS – there is always “enough” silver to do that “at the right price”. If silver was – say 1666 per ounce, you could put a tiny amount of this into a dollar coin and TA-DA… But they don’t want this, as it would be an open admission of all their financial sins AND it would restrain their money printing scheme, both of which they absolutely don’t want. So, it would be VERY possible to do that, but the will to do so is not there at all.
Who said silver becomes money again? Its a store of value, so, in a way, its the counterpart of money. That is, money as most people ‘know’ it.
IMO silver is money, always has been, but silver is not currency as is all the fiat issued by every country in the world.
AND if Steve is correct with his assessment of the energy situation money is all silver will be in the future. No energy, no electricity, thus no electronics!!! But silver as well as correctly formed lead is a store of value. They can be traded for eggs that aren’t spoiled as well as cornmeal to make cornbread.
I do find it a bit comical reading of the future value of silver because of its many uses on a site that has basically shown in a very few years there will no energy save the muscles in ones back!
I drive through Dallas or Ok City and just wonder how many of my fellow freeway dwellers can indeed grow a garden.
Come on folks, if STEVE’S EROI is correct, then we should have a discussion about the true future.
It takes a lot to capture my attention in this information-dense age. Your article got me from the get go. Useful. Relevant. Well-sourced. I will definitely be re-reading it…a THIRD time.
When the gov’t recalls all $50 and $100 dollar bills for exchange they will only get about 10% of my liquidity. The balance is in mostly silver. Small am’t of gold.
Silver and gold..silver and gold…
Everyone wishes for silver and gold
How do you measure its worth?
Just by the pleasure it gives here on Earth.
I love that Christmas tune. Silver is definitely the better buy right now. The 1 to 80 gold silver ratio is a historic high. At some point I suspect the ratio will snap back like an overstretched rubber band. Probably will hurt the guy holding the rubber band. I also like the price of silver vs the mining and assocated production cost. Silver is a historic bargain.
It’s not surprising the general public fall into the clutches of the ‘Elite’ (i.e. rich and powerful)not once, but every chance they get. It’s barely been ten years since the real estate CRASH and here they are again, soon to be underwater. Not to say the folks who can’t qualify for a house-they stay underwater on their vehicles!!
Silver may not rise in price too soon, but I honestly can’t see how one could lose much. The hedge-off range is fabulous. Buy at $16, fall’s to $12? Hell, buy more, bring the $16 cost you paid down with it and average it lower. We wondered from 1985 to 2000 if the dam silver price would ever go above $5!!! Go around coin dealers and see if you can pick the good stuff out of bags nobody wants (yet). Since no one seems to want nice physical silver, no use buying junk. That’s what I did in the 1990’s at $4 oz. Didn’t have trouble selling nice coins at 10x when the price hit $30-$40.
GLP
“most likely silver will become a very valuable strategic metal that the government will demand but reward you highly to turn it in”
Maybe, bro, but I think you are neglecting or unaware of the energy basis of Collapse. Suggest you seriously understand some of the Articles by our benefactor. Really suspect sizable proportion here just drifted in from Silver doctors.
So understanding that you are not in 1928:
* The Gov will be broke. Of course they will still have more then you but what are they going to pay you in? Rapidly vanishing or totally worthless digital or paper fiat.
* Silver is already a valuable strategic metal and look how is being treated now. Yes it will become more so
* Governments always steal as much as they can without mercy. This is an irrevocable basic law of life. Repeat after me. OMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
While has always been, as collapse deepens theft gets even more blatant. Even now in most states in US if found to be carrying more then few hundred dollars cash it will be seized. And permanently
* Even if this broke GOV does have something valuable to exchange why would they? Confiscation door to door won’t happen as not worth it. All they have to do is make possession and trading illegal, then 90% of holders will EVENTUALLY have to sell it to gov for Gov price of maybe $5/oz worthless fiat just to eat. Maybe they’ll just give you a couple more months outside Fema camp in exchange.
Even if not it doesn’t matter. Such a low % of population holds silver in their own possession that the Gov will lose little by you “keeping” it. And what is ultimately important is that they own you, not your buried stash.
Nationalize the mines and seize private depositories, will keep their military going as long as it can.
You act like “The Gov’t” is some sort of all knowing entity. Its not. Its an organization made of people. If people don’t get paid then there isn’t a functioning government. If the Country is in dire straits then the government will have its hands full just trying to stay in power. See Venezuela. Only about 2% of the population has any PMs. The big stackers have deep pockets and are deeply connected to power. They won’t outlaw the foundation of their wealth, especially since 98% of Americans don’t have any. Nor would they outlaw silver.Silver is used in everything. When you outlaw an item its supply becomes scarce on the open market. Then it goes to the black market. Silver would disappear. So would your electronics, your car, silverware, etc..If the government wants silver it would go after the miners. Then it would have to pay the miners to extract the silver. Might as well leave the open market alone. Please stop trying to spread your illogical brand of fear.
Pete, if you haven’t noticed, everyone in the US gub gets paid too much, with far too many benefits, holidays, sick time, pension and we still have a non-functioning gub.
Your comments are always spot on. I’m sure this was just and oversight on your part. 😉
Steve,
You are the one making my comment “all about me” basically an ad hominem attack instead of addressing any idea.
But to take your attack seriously, if I was “selfish why wouldn’t i just keep my selfish little opinion to myself? Yes I guess it is selfish to have a personal opinion about anything. And then to seek to share it nonaggressively with one’s fellows in the distant hope of getting a slant one had not considered is really the epitomy of selfishness.
I will now go back to my hole, cover myself in ashes, and chant holy names for 3 days
Hey Pete
Don’t know where get idea I think Gov “all knowing” or all powerful. Point might have it doesn’t have to be either of those things to stop you from Silver. As in a law against owning transacting costs them almost no effort. that’s why a threat and why will happen. It’s just too easy.
And Gov doesn’t need to pay it’s burros to stay together in a more limited way but still enough to step on you. Historically bureaucracies have existed soley as a network of drones caught up in a vacuous system of privilege.
Your reference to the big stackers and the elites in power. You’re talking about top .1%. First of all, these elites allowed it in 33. Secondly, central banks can hold Gold to stengthen state power without it helping you.
Third and main disagreement is that the “foundation of their wealth” is pm. Their foundation is based not on their pm but on the fact you don’t own any or can’t use it, i.e, their power comes from debt based fiat and fiat’s power comes from military.
Yes, silver used in everything but after collapse lot less stuff being made. More importantly they don’t need the small amount in people’s backyards to make stuff, as I just said earlier. Just nationalize mines and kick Tom Cloud out of bed some morning and seize his storage depots and you get 99% of pm without any effort at all.
So yes, “scarce on open market” but not scarce where it counts. Open market irrelevant. And forget black market. Snitches and murderers everywhere.
And you see the direction where we will go with trumps behavior.He promised the workers new jobs.Now he wants to roll back global trading.This was installed by the USA and Great Britain.
Should lead to inflation.Globalisation is a race to the bottom.It leads to lower income for the workers.Last time i read we go to stagflation.Means higher prices and lower consumption.
Maybe good for gold?
To my fellow investors and PM acquires,
In every country that I experienced, witnessed or studied those countries collapse; those who always hardly suffered or lost the least or not at all; were those who had invested in friendships and care for their neighbors. Helping and giving time and effort to their neighbors was an investment of time and money that had been repaid with dividends during the ruff times. Yes invest in gold and silver and cryptos, as well as 6 months plus of food and supplies but most important, invest in your neighbors. You have never forgotten those who had helped you out in your time of need, neither will those who you help out now, forget you.
Remember “love your neighbors as you love yourself” If you cannot love your neighbors then move to a place where you can.
It’s not the end of the world just a rapid return to a much simpler life.
Pretty much everything but gold and silver have been pushed into bubble territory. At some point the pendulum will go the other way. And the big boys have been covering quite an astounding amount of silver shorts over the past few weeks. They certainly are buying here with both hands like there is no tomorrow…
Silver may be bottoming but will it be able to rise above 18.5 USD within the next bounce that is the question.
BTC near 12000 now, no end in sight to the rise after the big correction. I would not be surprised to it to take over 20000 in march.
Be sure to be back here posting your disappointment when it doesn’t.
I’ve held fast with silver for 4 yrs now, think I can hold cryptos for more than 6 months especially since they have yielded 10x in the last 6 months.
Besides gotta go a yr for cap gains rate.
When apples and pears are obviously compared and this discussion is not adult enough to take it in but instead critisize the language of the messenger it is nothing but sad.
For the ones lazy or afraid to find out the truth I can tell you that the silver price level is more or less the same as Dow or real estate if the same time period are used in the examples above.
The doom and gloom “can’t eat silver” crowd are a woeful hopeless bunch. I pity you guys/gals.
You probably have given up at first sign of adversity in all things in life. I (and many others) see this (silver trade) as a HUGE opportunity for not only self preservation, but a way to right the wrongs of our psychopathic leaders.
I will NOT bury my head in the sand with my finger up my rear-end. THAT IS NO WAY TO LIVE! We ALL know times will be tough in the no too distant future, but we can, at the very least, prepare for it.
Be your own banker, and guard your own gate. Bullion, bullets, and beans (this first). I’m not going out like some wimpy disheveled doomer.
why are you on here if there is no hope?
do us all a favor and end now before it gets too tough to stomach.
The rest of us have planning to do.
It is very easy to know what the Silver price will be in the future. Just ask Jamie Dimon at JP Morgan. They own the silver market, so they can make it go to $15 or $150. We can bust our heads left and right as many times as we can, but unless we have some type of regulation to break this tapeworm, I do not see silver moving up that much. It will just go with the price of inflation, just enough so the miners can survive. One day the banks will go long, but I am afraid it is not up to us to decide. Silver is a good hedge, but I would not consider it an investment, just a protection, an insurance against a financial Armageddon.
When we predict the future value of silver, I think we need to consider that we are shifting from a U.S. centrist world to a multi-polar world. I think its obvious with the increasing government debt levels and increasing U.S. trade deficits that the U.S. will have trouble maintaining its influence on global financial markets. The mechanisms of control are weakening. Goodbye Gary Cohn. We’re too close to the trees to see the forest. Just a decade ago it was inconceivable that China would have the largest gold exchange (SGE). It was inconceivable that China would be able to launch a viable oil bourse (March-27th). China is the largest oil and commodities consumer in the world. We like to think U.S. banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sacks run the world. However, of the five largest banks in the world, 4 are Chinese. U.S. banks don’t even make the top 5. Many say that without U.S. consumers China would fold. When I see retail companies collapsing at an alarming pace I have to ask are we still the largest global consumer nation? Do we really matter when we’re really the most indebted consumer nation? Change is all around us. I suspect future generations will look back and wonder how their parents could have missed the once in a thousand year opportunity to buy the most undervalued but most valuable precious element in the world. The properties in silver make it the most precious of all the metals. It is the most reflective, the best electrical conductor, and it has anti-bacterial properties. It’s in mirrors, electronics, batteries, antibacterial clothing, solar panels, medical devices, etc… Its by far the most important precious metal. It is historically recognized as a store of value and as the world continues to change I suspect silver will be recognized as the most precious of the precious metals. It will certainly be around well after the Dollar has finished doing what its doing.
Looks like we go to a deflationary collaps?Miners lower and lower.Gold and silver no power.
Pete,
My perspective is that your views would be perfectly valid if we were into a normal debt/fiat collapse. Sure, it is true the US is being rapidly superceded by more competent cultures China/Russia, and that a multi polar world is the new context. Thing is, how long before we blow thru that phase?
Before multi polar breaks down.
I.e, seems to me global EROEI trumps everything, and it means 1/2 billion people left by 2100 in a distinctly non industrial world
EROI, in my view, is the only measure by which the value of anything, including silver and gold, can be measured. Pre industrials used Pm, but they had the surplus that enabled trade. I don’t see that happening until well beyond our lifetimes or even our children.
So in short term out maybe 10 years max I see legal problems touched on in earlier posts and in longer term see these issues
So, point here is. have you studied this site’s thesis and in the main agree with it? If so, how do you see Silver being valuable in this context? I’m genuinely interested.
To me it seems your stance only makes sense if you basically disagree with Steve. If you disagree, why?.
Course, also the possibility you have not studied it but then why are you here? Only cause Steve tacks silver on end of many articles?
Again, not trying to be arguementative for it’s own sake. Am seeking insight into where other’s are coming from.
If you have not studied it why are you here? Because Steve tacks silver on end?
Hello Frank,
I don’t disagree with Steve. We are approaching the Seneca cliff. What we don’t know is how this will manifest in society or in what stages. I don’t think the Seneca cliff arises like the sun and we all return to the 17th century. It will be those nations closest to the energy faucet that will retain a semblance of this life and those nations or people that are farther from the energy faucet will reach a lower energy equilibrium and all the ramifications from such as shift. I think silver and gold will retain their value since life will become more local. Communities and nations will still trade with each other and items like gold and silver will not only retain their value but will be more important because of their inherent properties and their acceptability as a known standard of value. We don’t know the future…its easy to let our doom imagination run wild. I’ve lived in many 3rd world nations. They are ahead of the Seneca curve. Those societies are bifurcated between the wealthy and then there is everyone else. I believe the U.S. is already descending into a lower energy consumption model. For example Uber share rides. In Bolivia there were share taxis that I would occasionally use. 50 cents got me to work and there would be up to 6-10 people piled into a mini van. Or I could pay $5.00 and get the taxis. I’ve never heard of a similar service until I saw that Uber offered shared rides. That’s how it goes. Sometimes the changes occur and you don’t recognize them. Another big change are the Millennials living at home. In many S.A. nations, I’d see grown men in their 40s with their wives and kids living with their parents. Everything was just fine and totally acceptable. Once again another major cultural shift not recognized. We’re already going down the energy hole. It happens slowly and then sometimes quickly, but I believe societies and cultures adjust. Silver and gold are part of the adjustment to a lower energy equilibrium.
Sorry, failed the proof read
No Silver and Gold will not hold the trade after the Seneca cliff because that makes another cliff to happen in the future because the most of us have no gold and silver and so we sit in the same sh*t as before. Only fiat is gone but the few like us have gold and silver and that’s OK? I think silver will go out of market in 10-20 years and no one of us will buy it because we have no meaning anymore of it, if we learn this time and go the right direction. And so it’s al going into production and what not and also Gold. No meaning in a more aware civilization to speculate on it. We need a durable consciousness civilization that is smarter than how the things now run and that is our only way out of this mess we have created. And no Gold, Silver or Crypto will be our savior because all that does is make 0.0000001% of this world that have it richer while the other have nothing when this corrupt fiat-system crashes. So no difference in the long run and we have not such a long run anymore if we want to live like we want to live…
Hey folks. Keep on arguing or discussing and I will keep on stacking 12,500 so far.
Good luck with that 🙂