PREPARING FOR COLLAPSE: Record Eight-Year Silver Buying Intensity Continues

While the Mainstream Media and Financial Network hacks delude Americans into believing the Fed and U.S. Treasury are in control of the financial and economic system, investors continue on a record eight-year buying spree of silver.  This multi-year silver buying trend is unprecedented in history.

Precious metal investors need to understand just how different this current trend of elevated physical silver demand is compared to previous periods in history.  Very few individuals realize that during the rise in the price of silver during the 1970’s, investors were net sellers of silver:

Silver-Price-1970'sTotal new silver supplies fell far short of meeting these requirements. From 1971 through 1978 there was a cumulative deficit of new supply over demand of 415.8 million ounces. The silver that filled this gap came from the 620.5 million ounces of silver inventories – many held by investors – built up during the previous seven years. By becoming net sellers of silver, investors replaced the U.S. Treasury as the source of silver to make up for a major, ongoing shortage of silver.

(Silver Institute silver price history 1971-1978)

So, the price of silver rose from $1.5 to over $5 even though 620.5 million oz (Moz) were supplied from inventory stockpiles during 1971-1978… mainly from investors.  The main drivers behind the price rise were skyrocketing oil prices and large buying by the Hunt Brothers and other institutions.

The public didn’t get involved in buying silver until the later part of 1979 and 1980.  Unfortunately, this was at the time the price of silver peaked at $49 an ounce.  As the price of silver fell to $4.98 in June 1982, so did silver investment demand.  However, buying picked up once again later that year due to several circumstances:

Silver-Price-1980's-newIn late 1982 investor interest in silver was rekindled by several forces, all of which emerged at roughly the same time. The international financial market panic led some investors to turn to silver. Others were attracted by what they saw as unsustainably low prices. Investment demand also was encouraged by a rapid easing of credit market conditions by monetary authorities in most industrialized nations; this easing led to an immediate revival of inflation fears. As a result of all of these forces coming to bear at once, investment demand picked up during the second half of 1982 and the first quarter of 1983. This influx of investor buying helped take silver prices from the June 1982 low of $4.98 to a peak of $14.72 in March 1983.

(Silver Institute silver price history 1981-1990)

Here we can see, that when investors returned back into the silver market, the price of silver increased from $4.98 in June 1982 to a high of $14.72 in March 1983.  The difference in the 1982-1983 silver buying trend compared to the previous decade (1971-1978), is that the public was the main driving force in silver demand, while large individual buyers (Hunt Brothers & etc) were the dominant players.

Furthermore, the public’s buying of physical silver during this time occurred during brief periods (1979-1980 & 1982-1983).  This is much different from the current trend that started in 2008…. the year the U.S. banking industry died.

This can be seen in the following chart:

Global Physical Silver Bar & Coin Investment1

Total Silver Bar & Coin demand in 2007 was 51.2 Moz.  This picked up significantly in 2008 to 187.3 Moz and remained elevated for the next seven years.  Silver Bar & Coin demand hit a record 243.6 Moz in 2013, due to low prices, declined in 2014 to 196 Moz, but will likely jump substantially in 2015 to over 240 Moz.

Investors purchased a stunning 1.2 billion ounces of silver from 2008 to 2013.  Of the 1.2 billion oz in Silver Bar & Coin demand, Official Coin sales accounted for 657 Moz or 55% of the total. 

Even though the price of silver has declined since 2011, investors continue to purchase record amounts of physical metal.  This is a much different situation than the previous buying periods of 1979-1980 and 1982-1983.  In both of these buying periods, the price of silver rose considerably.  However, in this four-year period since the price of silver peaked in 2011, investors are buying more silver than ever.

Silver Product Shortage With Three Times The Product Supply

I discussed this topic in my previous article BEWARE: What If This Retail Silver Investment Shortage Doesn’t End:

SilverDoctors interviewed Tom Power, CEO of the Sunshine Mint back on Sept 7th.  If you haven’t listened to that interview, I highly recommend you do.  The Sunshine Mint is one of the largest silver mints in the United States.  They provide a good portion of the silver blanks for the U.S. Mint.

One of the interesting things Tom said during the interview was that the Sunshine Mint’s annual silver production level increased three times from 25 Moz in 2008 to an estimated 75-80 Moz this year.  We must remember, there was a huge spike of retail silver investment demand in 2008 when the price of silver fell from $20 to $8.50.  There were huge product delays and high premiums… much like the present conditions today.

Now, what I didn’t include in that article is the chart below.  Clearly, we can see just how much more Silver Eagle buying is taking place this year compared to 2008:

Silver-Eagle-Sales-Shortage-2008-vs-2015

The Silver Eagle shortage in 2008 started in June after the price peaked in March at $21 due to the bankruptcy of Bear Stearns.  Even though the price of silver declined until October after a hitting second peak in July 2008 of $19, investors continued to purchase record amounts of silver.  This caused more retail shortages, thus pushing premiums to extremely high levels.

Interestingly, the same jump in Silver Eagle buying also took place in June this year due to the possible Greek Exit of the European Union and the Chinese market crash.  Although, the amount of Silver Eagle buying of 18.8 Moz (Jun-Jul-Aug-Sep 2015) was more than three-times the 2008 period of 6.1 Moz. 

Thus, the silver product shortages are taking place even with three-times the silver product supply.  This is an important factor to understand.

While silver product shortages are taking place, they are not yet widespread.  So, for all the precious metal investors who like to leave comments on various blogs that they could buy 30 Silver Eagles on Ebay with no wait, or from another dealer with with only a week or two delivery time… there are still shortages taking place in many areas in the retail market.

Short-sighted investors need to realize that country, or worldwide shortages don’t happen overnight.  They start in certain areas and move throughout the system.  If financial and economic conditions deteriorate by the end of 2015 and into 2016, silver product shortages will only get worse.  Which means, we could see retail product shortages extend into the wholesale 1,000 oz bar market.

Present Silver Buying Trend Is Unprecedented

The present eight-year silver buying trend by the public signifies a much different situation than what took place during the 1979-1980 and 1982-83 periods.  Investors bought record amounts of physical silver during the 2008-2011 price rise period and even more during the price decline period from 2012-2015.

Silver Bar & Coin Buying Trends

2008-2011 = 628.5 Moz

2012-2015 = 817.6 Moz (based on 2015 estimated 24o Moz)

Investment demand 1981-early 1982 and 1984 and onward, declined as the price of silver fell.  However, the 2012-2015 silver price decline period will actually show an increase in buying (817.6 Moz estimated) compared to the price-rise period (2008-2011) of 628.5 Moz.

Thus, the present silver buying trend is unprecedented.  Why?  It’s taking place during a four-year price decline period while the previous surges occurred as prices spiked or increased (1979-1980, 1982-1983 & 2008-2011).

I believe investors are still buying silver even though the price has continued to fall because they realize the GREAT FINANCIAL COLLAPSE is still coming.  Furthermore, the highly leveraged debt-based financial system is taking place as the world peaks in global oil production.  A perfect example of this forecasted rapid decline is U.S. Shale oil production.

The Coming Collapse Of U.S. Shale Oil Production

According to the EIA – U.S. Energy Information Agency, U.S. oil production peaked in June at 9.6 million barrels per day (mbd) and is currently at 9.1 mbd.  However, production from the top shale oil fields peaked in April at 5.3 mbd and is forecasted to fall to 5.0 mbd in October:

Top-4-Shale-Oil-Fields-Production

To get an idea of just how bad the coming collapse in U.S. shale oil production will be, let’s take a look at two charts by Jean Laherrere based on ultimate recoverable reserves from the Bakken and North Dakota:

Jean-Bakken-Aug-2015

The GREEN LINE in the chart represents Bakken oil production (inside North Dakota, as small percentage is from Montana), while the purple line denotes the rest of North Dakota.  As you can see, Jean’s chart shows Bakken oil production peaking and falling to 400,000 barrels per day (bd) by 2020 and less than 100,000 bd by 2025.

Jean-North-Dakota-Aug-2015

This is a huge drop from the 1.2 mbd of oil the Bakken is producing currently.  If we assume the same kind of declines in the Eagle Ford and other shale oil fields, U.S. domestic oil production will likely fall 30-40% by 2020 and 60-70% by 2025.  This will be the nail that finally destroys the U.S. Empire and economy.

Unfortunately, there are still many analysts and investors who are completely clueless to the coming energy crisis.  I still receive countless emails from readers informing me that there are trillions of barrels of oil still out there in LaLa Land or there are new energy technologies that will solve all our problems.

Actually, I wish this was true, but it isn’t.  This sort of wishful thinking takes place because individuals do not want to face the reality…. a reality that is just too damn horrible to swallow.  So, instead of facing reality, many continue dream of SUGAR PLUMS DANCING IN THEIR HEADS.

As precious metal analysts-investors bicker about whether THIS IS A SILVER SHORTAGE or not, the U.S. and world move closer to the worst collapse in human history.  This is actually much worse than musicians playing music on the Titanic as it sinks.  Why?  There were 713 survivors on the Titanic of the total 2,229 passengers and crew.  Thus, 32% survived the sinking of the Titanic, whereas only 1-2% of investors have gold and silver lifeboats.

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52 Comments on "PREPARING FOR COLLAPSE: Record Eight-Year Silver Buying Intensity Continues"

  1. It is funny how everything has been financialized today. Even the way gold and silver are “priced” has been grossly financialized.

    Our central planners are insane. Everything one day will blow up. And gold and silver will still be worth peanuts.

    It’s best to buy self-sustaining agriculture land. When they supply chains of everyhthing breakdown, rows of crops will be worth more that pockets of gold.

    Jackie Boy

    • Tell us how do you take that land with you when you have to move? Is it liquid?

      • Good point, I will elaborate on it. Between the moment of ‘everything breaking down’ and the moment of ‘world population reached 500 million’ the most valuable posession one would want to have will be safety. A very desirable extra to that posession will be ‘pieces of good old world comforts’, such as a comfortable house in a desolate place that cannot be reached on foot or randomly discovered, with own power, functional HVAC, drinkable and hot water, and a stash of stored supplies, including food. And only then one may want to add some luxury, such as a fresh vegetables, a herb garden, hunting range and so on. But safety has to be achieved first, as dead people have no material needs, and there will be millions or billions of dead people before a new economic equilibrium is achieved.

    • If in the face of economic collapse gold and silver are worth peanuts, then almost any other form of money or currency will be worth far less than peanuts.

      Food, water, clothing, shoes, and a dry place to sleep are the most needed items in a bleak scenario. But assuming it isn’t bad everywhere gold and silver would be highly valued.

      • There can’t be an isometric distribution of conditions, that’s wishful thinking. PMs will be traded between rich people. Trying to use PMs to buy usual stuff will get you killed fast in such a situation.

        • Exactly! And not so much for the purpose of taking those PMs, but simply out of spite.

        • If it gets that bad, even having a can of beans could be enough reason to be killed.

        • More likely to get killed quickly if desperate people know you try to buy or barter with food, ammunition, liquor, etc. and they know you have a stockpile of it.

          • During the collapse it will be best if one can keep a low profile, if that is possible. My hope is that once the initial turmoil is over, that there is some sort of peaceful and orderly reboot of the system, assuming that the basic infrastructures and social fabric remain more or less intact. Maybe that’s wishful thinking and a sustained downturn is inevitable, but it is my hope. All else will get us quickly on “The Road” (pretty much on a global scale, some places are already well on that way) and then ONLY survival of the fittest would rule.

    • Let’s consider this scenario:

      If the collapse is that bad…to the point that land becomes as “expensive” in your dystopian future scenario, then land will be effectively worthless. Why? Simple, if the supply chain breaks down to that level, then land, gold, and silver will all be worth nothing. In addition, you’ll be lucky to survive if you have food unless you plan on planing your crops in Fort Knox.

      But in this respect:

      “It is funny how everything has been financialized today. Even the way gold and silver are “priced” has been grossly financialized.”

      You are correct. It’s your conclusion that LAND has NOT been financialized that is a glaring fallacy!

      • Wrong. In that scenario lots of people lose their jobs. ¿No fuel for tractors? No worries, plenty of cheap workers. Whoever owns land in such a situation is in a position of advantage.

        • Wrong. Read what has happened in previous hyperinflations! Here is what will happen to that *lucky* land owner. The government will TELL you what you are to grwo, and at WHAT price you are to sell it. You will plant only the crops they tell, and you will be forced to sell for next to nothing. Basically, you will just become a slave working the land for the man. And if you try to escape, you will either be shot dead or imprisoned. So good luck with that fanciful theory about how you will be a survivor.

        • The EROI of ‘cheap workers’ is FIVE, and the name for that arrangement is Neolithic era (late stone age). In that era one owns only what one can guard with an edged weapon in one’s own hand, made by one’s own hand. There are no advantages in that arrangement, otherwise humans would never upgrade from it to the horrors of feudalism.

    • Jack,

      Again, thanks for the comedic relief. Nothing wrong with a GOOD or BAD JOKE every once in a while. That being said, you should consider spending more of your time in your garden rather than wasting it in here posting negative comments on the precious metals.

      steve

    • When you say “worth more” exactly how will that be priced ? In paper dollars ?

  2. Gold and Silver are asset tools in your asset toolbox. If the SHTF and things implode for weeks or months or whatever, I would rather have gold and silver and not need it than not have it and need it. Kinda like guns and ammo. And yeah, food. I like to cover my bases as best I can.

    • how about some alcohol and some good weed ?

    • The way I look at it is that you cannot eat metals. If people are starving, its because money is worthless, and so are “precious” metals. If money is worthless, what is the value of silver? How do you determine its value? How many coins buy a piece of bread when the majority is paying in lead?

      In such a situation, it is ridiculous to think precious metals can do anything. The best advice was given above. Be out and away from major areas, have food supply, but prepare to have people steal from you, and have a stash area. Be able to grow food once/if things settle down. Think of blankets, heat, clothes sanitation, and of course food.

      Now – all of that said – having metals cant hurt assuming a total breakdown doesnt occur, or if it does, then the aftermath might hold some promise – but Amercans dont have a clue about government, or how to retore it. Thus, the liberties people once thought they understood will be forever gone. Its appalling how stupid people are about law.

      The idea that birthed freedom is not the constitution, its the DOI and the AOC (Declaration of Independence and Articles of Confederation) But people tout the Constitution as where their liberties derive. Sad really.

      IN any event, whether or not there is anhilation of all we know, there is a good chance owning precious metals will pay off. It depends on a lot of factors. I intend to focus more on my ability to farm, build and repair. Thankfully I chose HVAC as a career, which spills over into other fields. Mechanics, electrical, and I am not too shabby of a builder. I think those talents will be a whole lot more useful to me than Metals – at least for awhile.

      The question is will the world recover, or is the stage being set for a very bad – wicked – world leader?

  3. There seems to be a dilemma:

    Do we want the financial collapse? – no.
    Do we want silver to skyrocket? – yes.
    Can we have one without the other? – no.

    So…would you rather live under the same conditions for the rest of your life (let’s imagine it’s possible in this hypothetical scenario) and not have a financial collapse or would rather have a financial collapse (madmax scenario possibility) and finally see silver skyrocket?

    Be careful what you wish for?

    • Walter,

      That’s a good question. However, the coming collapse in U.S. and world oil production will cause a great deal of suffering irregardless if we wish for it or not. Unfortunately, it’s a done deal. So, I don’t see business as usual under a totally RIGGED CENTRAL BANK MARKET for decades to come because PEAK OIL won’t allow it.

      Thus, it’s best to own physical gold and silver during the disintegration of the system. I don’t know how it unfolds, but I don’t know what else to INVEST ONE’S SURPLUS CAPITAL.

      steve

      • but I don’t know what else to INVEST ONE’S SURPLUS CAPITAL.

        steve-

        Here are some options;
        guns and ammo
        first aid stuff
        good work clothes
        boots
        hand tools
        garden seeds
        chain saw and blades, buck saws
        chickens, goats, cows or horses
        fruit trees
        my list is endless, my funds are lacking

        • no one,

          I have made the move to the country. We live on five acres and have organic garden, farm animals and etc. I have acquired most of the items in your list. I should have clarified my stance on SURPLUS CAPITAL.

          I don’t think it’s wise to own a lot of gold and silver while living in a big city. It’s for sure better to be poor in the country with necessities than in the big city with lots of gold and silver.

          If an individual or family has taken care of the necessities of a more sustainable living arrangement, then I see no better place to store ones wealth than in gold and silver. There is no need to buy a truckload of ammo, when you may need other items. Gold and silver will continue to be the best stores of value going forward.

          steve

    • I can’t wait for the financial collapse .. we all know it is coming – lets get it on.

  4. There is a lot of talk about bank manipulation of Gold but in my opinion Precious metal prices are not accurate and do not reflect true economic underpinning, yes underpinning:

    Gold, platinum Silver etc. should be sky high about now masking all economic fundamentals; history has shown Gold to be a sure hedge against failing currencies and could even prop up currencies.

    The reason why precious metals are so low in the midst of such great demand, so great that supplies on some style as kilo bars can’t be had while other styles as some coins are taking 5 weeks to deliver waiting from the source as dealers run out of stock; it’s because the stock market has been viewed by so many individuals day traders I think of them are gamblers, they by a block of stock and when it moves up a few cents they sell it for a profit, they do this over and over every day and at the end of the day, week, month or year nobody has any idea what the true value of a stock is because it has been so castigated by these very naive individuals or gamblers as they are.

    When the market started waning down they looked at paper gold stocks of at the CME to do the same thing, every day buying and selling like it was stock in a company taking calls and puts like it was candy as a result gold gets stuck in the quagmire of artificial intelligence orchestrated indirectly by the gamblers.

    Gold and other precious metals are not investment they are hedges against currency so manufactures are able to buy their raw materials at a reasonable cost when they need delivery, and here lies the problem supply and demand, we never really see true figures.

    Everybody is a speculator fine, in my opinion currency values can be determined by the precious metals as history has shown them to always hold value be it high or low it always has intrinsic value.

    The Gold standard is a good standard and if the US dollar were to adopt the gold standard today I will bet you $1.00 that the US dollar would only be worth .05 cents today as opposed to when we were on the gold standard, and so for this reason it is good to hold gold or silver and other precious metals, but as long as the naive day traders view Gold as an investment in the same way they do the stock market and play games we won’t see Gold or silvers real value until the economy goes completely bust, because in this way the day traders will be out of the money.

    I could be wrong but I’m sick and tired of all the pundits and their speculation will it won’t it go up, the bear’s are dead, the bulls are coming, on and on it goes, so that’s mu opinion, feel free to correct me if I’m wrong; how much actual materials is reaching its destination daily and how much is buy-n-sell? I mean really are the big banks able to buy millions of ounces of gold and this drives the price down, shouldn’t it be the other way around? So who else is there but the gamblers dickin-around in ignorance?

  5. “While the Mainstream Media and Financial Network hacks delude Americans into believing the Fed and U.S. Treasury are in control of the financial and economic system, investors continue on a record eight-year buying spree of silver. ”

    This article does not address where most investor buying is coming from although other articles in this series have. It isn’t the U.S.

    The buying percentage of U.S.[Canadian, Mexican, and probably most European nations] citizens is probably not increasing much. It’s just that small percentage [1-2% ?] is buying more. If 1% more get on board there isn’t enough supply to meet their needs. But is unlikely they will start until supply is further restricted [crisis or price rise motivation]. Price will not rise until the ability to manipulate it breaks down.

    • David,

      While we agree on most things, I disagree with you on your notion that the U.S. isn’t buying much of the silver. While India is importing record amount of silver bullion, the majority of Official Silver Coin and Round buying is taking place in North America.

      Yes, India is buying lots of silver bullion bars, but Americans and Canadians are buying lots and lots of Official Coins and Rounds… India is not. I would estimate that the majority of Silver Eagles, Maples, Philharmonics, now Kangaroos and Britannias are being purchased by American and Canadian Investors.

      So, yes… we are seeing a huge increase in U.S. and Canadian buying of Official Coins and Rounds. While the percentage isn’t that much higher, the numbers are. This includes small and very wealthy investors.

      China and many Asian countries are buying gold rather than silver bullion. India is an exception due to their religious and economic history with the precious metals.

      steve

  6. If we run out of oil , you can bet your bottom silver dollar or ounce that physical gold and silver will take a role of true money for ones survival.

    ” History repeats itself .”

    ” Gold and silver, like other commodities, have an intrinsic value, which is not arbitrary, but is dependent on their scarcity, the quantity of labour bestowed in procuring them, and the value of the capital employed in the mines which produce them.” David Ricardo

    “Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants – but debt is the money of slaves.” Norm Franz

    Be vigilant with your holdings.

    • Right On Silvrwillin!

      Great quotes, right on the money.

      It seems the problem many have is one of perspective.

      I don’t buy silver because I expect it to skyrocket in price. Silver is what it is intrinsically worth which it is all it will ever be worth. Today, it buys a box of high powered rifle rounds, like an ounce of gold buys a decked out high powered rifle. The truth of the matter is I buy PMs as a form of insurance because they are trashing the US dollar and the dollar is going to CRASH. It and all the other paper assets denominated in dollars will be WORTHLESS!

      After the crash, an ounce of silver will still probably buy a box of high powered rifle rounds but you will need a wheelbarrow of dollars to buy that same box of ammo.

      Steve, thanks for the interesting and insightful piece on the supply dynamics of silver. I don’t know if more people are buying silver or if just of those of us that see the wisdom are just buying a lot more because its cheap and we can still get it for now. I know I am.

      Buy for cash and stash.

      SteveW

      • what if they in force cashless society ,how much silver will be worth?

        • Rebecca,

          I know you asked SteveW this question, but I would like to offer my insight. I just read an report done by the Federal Reserve a few years ago. They found out that 40% of daily transactions are done with Dollars. While the average amount is less than $21, it still shows that Americans like to use cash for small transactions.

          Debt cards are used for higher amounts and electronic transactions are for the largest amounts. We also must remember, there are 30-50 million poor who do not even have a checking account. So, cashless would not work for them.

          I don’t believe the U.S. will force a cashless society due to the logistical problems, American buying habits and the peak and decline us U.S. Oil, Natural Gas and Coal production. We need a lot of energy to allow a high-tech widespread cashless system. Peak Energy will kill this before its ever instituted.

          steve

          • Uh…the poor have already started down the digital road even without a checking account. It is the EBT card. I see it taking awhile and probably not as fast as ‘some’ would like. But even without an ‘active agenda’ I believe the evolution of digital technology will get us to the cashless point eventually. As an added note, I have noticed a couple of good size bullion dealers that have been ‘out of stock’ or have four week wait times. Their premiums are up to $5 per ounce on silver sovereign coins. However APMEX at over $5 premiums have coins in stock. There is a growing shortage, but there are still coins to be had at the right price.

        • Unlike other countries, the U.S. has more than half of its paper currency being used overseas. If the U.S. were to buy up the paper currency and take it out of circulation I believe it would destroy some small countries that use dollars heavily. Those forms of the dollar would then lose demand and maybe something like the euro would replace that demand.

          It seems more likely that U.S. retailers would be incentivized to not accept dollars or to make it very inconvenient to use dollars.

          Mike

      • We shall see where fate takes us , SteveW. One thing about physical silver is certain though. It’s been
        pinned down for far too many years . A soaring price increase has to occur when the day comes that TPTB loose their ultimate control.

        The question’s are how high will the non-manipulated price rise and for how long will such a dynamic be realized ?

        I would bet that ” a decked out high powered rifle ” would be available for an ounce or two of silver for a period of time. That will be precisely the time that is right for buying many other assets as well using the silver ! Acquiring gold as being one of them !

        • Silvrwiillin,

          Absolutely could not agree more with your conclusions, but the way I see the question is “How far down can the dollar go?”

          This may seem a ridicules nit pick. For those of us though that only live across the water from Canada it could have major implications. The Loonie is suffering right now (read cheap and getting cheaper as long as the dollar seems strong) because Canada’s primary financial foundation is in commodities and not a house of cards based on derivatives and credit swaps like the US and Europe. When the SHTF, their dollar will fare much much better than the US dollar and Euro. So if you are in an area adjacent to Canada and are used to seeing and occasionally dealing in Loonies, it would pay to be holding some of your surplus capital in Canadian dollars.

          People’s habits are hard to change. When the dollar starts its swirling down the toilet, there will be a transition period before a real money (gold & silver) market economy evolves. During that transition people will still want to use paper currency and as the dollar slides, those on the Canadian border areas will move to Canadian dollars until the entire world fiat system collapses.

          SteveW

          • It’s nice to have that option SteveW. What a balancing act it appears to be. The best of luck to you and everyone else on this board . We’re all certainly going to need it !

  7. But Bix Weir says there’s a whole bunch of gold in the Grand Canyon and that all will be well after the reset.

    • Matt R,

      While I like Bix because he likes GOLD & SILVER, some of his opinions are based more on ASSUMPTIONS than FACT. His notion that the U.S. has all this untapped Gold and Oil is not based on true geological reserves. Bix does not look at the real data, but makes his assumptions on faulty info.

      There are independent Oil & Gold Geologists in the United States. If there was all this untapped gold or oil, believe me you, it would have been exploited by now. Now, there might be a lot of LOW QUALITY GOLD & OIL in the ground, but most of it will not be recovered due the FALLING EROI – Energy Returned On Invested.

      steve

      • Steve
        I still don’t understand how the price of silver can go up with low oil prices. And with oil prices set to stay low for the next couple of years at least are you saying that it will be different this time and silver will rise unlike the 70s and 2011 that had high oil prices?

        • Barry,

          I have stated in several interviews that the value of silver will transition from a commodity based pricing mechanism (supply-demand & cost based on the price of oil) to a high-quality store of value due to the peak and decline of U.S. and then global oil production. The price of oil won’t matter anymore as the coming collapse of U.S. oil production will destroy the valuation of most paper and physical assets.

          You must remember, the $100+ trillion in paper assets are based upon a growing energy supply to give them value in the future. Once oil production heads south in earnest, investors will have to move into gold and silver to protect wealth as paper and most physical assets lose value.

          Again, the price of oil won’t matter as the world experiences just a mere doubling or tripling of Silver & Gold investment. This still would only be 3-4% of the total investment public.

          steve

        • Barry,

          “I still don’t understand how the price of silver can go up with low oil prices. And with oil prices set to stay low for the next couple of years…”

          Oil will remain low only when viewed in ounces of silver/barrel of oil. I believe it is because you are looking at it from a dollar perspective. The price of silver will sky rocket and so will the price of oil in dollars in spite of an oversupply.

          SteveW

  8. The ‘manufacturing issue’ story is really wearing off. Just checked the corner shop: silver kilobars and 100oz bars are not even listed, and 250x boxes of 1oz coins are going at 25% premium. Single 1oz coins sell at 40%+ premium. In gold, 1oz coins are in permanent state of pre-order (though they do deliver as advertised) with 4.5% premium, and 100g minted bars are not even listed. Various 1kg gold bars are available. In summary: that is a very familiar picture of overdemand for bulk value metal items, much like it was in 2008 and earlier this month, but without ‘a clear a present danger’ driving it.

  9. Hi Steve
    I enjoy reading your blogs and I sent $25 to you in August for your paper on Silver but never received anything. Please refund my $25 or send me the paper on Silver, Thank you.

    Bruce Fadem seabiscuitllc@gmail.com

    • Bruce,

      Thanks for contacting me. Wish you would have done sooner. We had a few glitches with the previous system. However, the new one works much better. Thanks for giving me your email address. I will send you a report right away.

      steve

  10. “So, what’s the bottom line?The U.S. net oil import requirement reached an all-time high in 2005, 13.5 MMbpd (65% of demand). The net import requirement has dropped every year since then, reaching ~9.8 MMbpd (52%) in 2011. We project further declines to 8.8 MMbpd (48%) in 2012 and 4.5 MMbpd (26%) in 2015. By 2020 – based on the assumptions we previously outlined for domestic oil production, growth in biofuels, and declines in demand – we expect net imports to reach essentially zero. That’s right – oil independence. Adkins/Molchanov- Raymond James Energy Analysts 2012

    Total US net imports June 2015 were 9.5 million barrels per day.-EIA

    Me thinks Steve is right, even though he doesn’t have an NFL stadium named after him.

  11. My market has changed quite a bit since I came on board in the summer of 2012. My dealer has now issued a 5k walk in limit anything else is back ordered 3-10 due to the tight market. Me and a friend went the other week and we nearly cleaned him out. My purchase was just under the limit and hers about half of mine. I had to modify my order because he actually did not have enough stock. He said business has been brisk! While we were doing our transactions he received a Skype message from his other shop about 2.5 hours drive away of a walk in customer wanting an over the limit order. This is in Atlantic Canada and this was a Saturday morning at 10am right at opening.

  12. Authorized purchasers buy entire inventory of the 5-ounce quarter dollars within 24 hours of the on-sale date.
    The 45,000 2015 Bombay Hook National Wildlife Refuge 5-ounce silver bullion quarters dollars offered Sept. 28 by the U.S. Mint to its authorized purchasers sold out within the first 24 hours.

    https://www.coinworld.com/news/precious-metals/2015/09/united-states-mint-exhausts-supply-of-bombay-hook-bullion.html

  13. To the poor misguided soul that made the comment about precious metals being” worth less than peanuts”.You better study your history. It tells a far different story than the one you suggest.

  14. Preparing for collapse (whether or not it happens) is just common sense to me. The writing is on the wall that something is going to happen. The fed cant just keep printing dollars without eventually devaluing the dollar significantly. Owning a little metal sounds like a great idea to me and has for a long time.

  15. Steve

    I live in a rural area so I use the internet to get my metals. I must confess that I get GREAT JOY having the US Postal service, a government institution delivering my PM’s.

    My point here, last week I wanted to stack some additional Washington Quarters so I went to ebay and after spending a good 1/2 hour looking for a multiple roll deals, I found ONE deal with multiple rolls (4) circulated, that was the ONLY circulated multi roll deal shown.

    I have never witnessed such LOW volume of 90% Silver on Ebay……..

    Keep up the great work Steve!

  16. All this talk of a collapse is foolish. If it did occur we would have a Ferguson riot in every
    town in the USA. All this hype and statiscal stuff regarding silver doesn’t add up to a
    hill of beans. If silver is to rise, demand must double. I see now that the 2020 prediction
    is now 2025. If you buy silver, buy it as a hedge and an inheritance for your grand
    children. Do it slowly with extra cash. You’ve got all the time in the world to accumulate
    it.

    • Joe,

      The COLLAPSE pertains to the STOCK & BOND MARKET. I never said a collapse of the society. Nothing wrong with buying silver and accumulating it. However, if we do see fireworks in the market and Silver becomes unavailable, I would like you to come back in here and REMIND US of your opinion….You’ve got all the time in the world to accumulate
      it.

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