Areas Of The World More Vulnerable To Collapse

Certain areas of the world are more vulnerable to economic and societal collapse.  While most analysts gauge the strength or weakness of an economy based on its outstanding debt or debt to GDP ratio, there is another factor that is a much better indicator.  To understand which areas and regions in the world that will suffer a larger degree of collapse than others, we need to look at their energy dynamics.

For example, while the United States is still the largest oil consumer on the planet, it is no longer the number one oil importer.  China surpassed the United States by importing a record 8.9 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2017.  This data came from the recently released BP 2018 Statistical Review.  Each year, BP publishes a report that lists each countries’ energy production and consumption figures.

BP also lists the total oil production and consumption for each area (regions and continents).  I took BP’s figures and calculated the Net Oil Exports for each area.  As we can see, the Middle East has the highest amount of net oil exports with 22.3 million barrels per day in 2017:

The figures in the chart above are shown in “thousand barrels per day.”  Russia and CIS (Commonwealth Independent States) came in second with 10 mbd of net oil exports followed by Africa with 4 mbd and Central and South America with 388,000 barrels per day.  The areas with the negative figures are net oil importers.

The area in the world with the largest net oil imports was the Asia-Pacific region at 26.6 mbd followed by Europe with 11.4 mbd and North America (Canada, USA & Mexico) at 4.1 mbd.

Now, that we understand the energy dynamics shown in the chart above, the basic rule of thumb is that the areas in the world that are more vulnerable to collapse are those with the highest amount of net oil imports.  Of course, it is true that the Middle Eastern or African countries with significant oil exports can suffer a collapse due to geopolitics and civil wars (example, Iraq, and Libya), but this was not a result of domestic oil supply and demand forces.  Rather the collapse of Iraq and Libya can be blamed on certain superpowers desire to control the oil market as they are strategic net oil importers.

The areas with the largest net oil imports, Asia-Pacific and Europe, have designed complex economies that are highly dependent on significant oil supplies to function.  Thus, the areas and countries with the largest net oil imports will experience a higher degree of collapse. Yes, there’s more to it than the amount of net oil imports, but that is easy gauge to use.   I will explain the other factors shortly.  If we look at the Asia-Pacific countries with the largest net oil imports, China, India, and Japan lead the pack:

China is a net importer of nearly 9 mbd of oil, followed by India at 4 mbd and Japan with 3.9 mbd.  Thus, as these net oil imports decline, so will the degree of economic activity.  However, when net oil imports fall to a certain level, then a more sudden collapse of the economy will result… resembling the Seneca Cliff.

We must remember, a great deal of the economic infrastructure (Skyscrapers, commercial buildings, retail stores, roads, equipment, buses, trucks, automobiles, etc and, etc.) only function if a lot of oil continually runs throughout the system.  Once the oil supply falls to a certain level, then the economic system disintegrates.

While China is the largest net oil importer, the United States is still the largest consumer of oil in the world.  Being the largest oil consumer is another very troubling sign.  The next chart shows the countries with the highest oil consumption in the world and their percentage of net oil imports:

Due to the rapid increase in domestic shale oil production, the United States net oil imports have fallen drastically over the past decade.  At one point, the U.S. was importing nearly three-quarters (75%) of its oil but is now only importing 34%.  Unfortunately, this current situation will not last for long.  As quickly as shale oil production surged, it will decline in the same fashion… or even quicker.

You will notice that Saudi Arabia is the sixth largest oil consumer in the world followed by Russia.  Both Saudi Arabia and Russia export a much higher percentage of oil than they consume.  However, Russia will likely survive a much longer than Saudi Arabia because Russia can provide a great deal more than just oil.  Russia and the Commonwealth Independent States can produce a lot of food, goods, commodities, and metals domestically, whereas Saudi Arabia must import most of these items.

Of the largest consumers of oil in the chart above, Japan and South Korea import 100% (or nearly 100%) of their oil needs.  According to the data put out by BP 2018 Statistical Review, they did not list any individual oil production figures for Japan or South Korea.  However, the U.S. Energy Information Agency reported in 2015 that Japan produced 139,000 bd of total petroleum liquids while S. Korea supplied 97,000 bd.  Production of petroleum liquids from Japan and South Korea only account for roughly 3% of their total consumption…. peanuts.

Analysts or individuals who continue to believe the United States will become energy independent are ignorant to the impacts of the Falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment or the Thermodynamics of oil depletion.  Many analysts believe that if the price of oil gets high enough, say $100 or $150; then shale oil would be hugely profitable.  The error in their thinking is the complete failure to comprehend this simple relationship… that as oil prices rise, SO DO the COSTS… LOL.

Do you honestly believe a trucking company that transports fracking sand, water or oil for the shale oil industry is going to provide the very same costs when the oil price doubles????  We must remember, the diesel price per gallon increases significantly as the oil price moves higher.  Does the energy analyst believe the trucking companies are just going to eat that higher cost for the benefit of the shale oil industry??  This is only one example, but as the oil price increases, inflationary costs will thunder throughout the shale oil industry.

If the oil price shoots up to $100 or higher and stays there (which I highly doubt), then costs will start to surge once again for the shale oil industry.  As costs increase, we can kiss goodbye the notion of higher shale oil profits.  But as I mentioned in the brackets (), I don’t see the oil price jumping to $100 and staying there.  Yes, we could see an oil price spike, but not a long-term sustained price as the current economic cycle is getting ready to roll over.  And with it, we are going to experience one hell of a deflationary collapse.  This will take the oil price closer to $30 than $100.

Regardless, the areas and countries with the highest oil consumption and net oil imports will be more vulnerable to collapse and will fall the hardest.  Just imagine the U.S. economy consuming 5 million barrels of oil per day, rather than the current 20 mbd.  The United States just has more stuff that will become worthless and dysfunctional than other countries.

Lastly, the end game suggests that the majority of countries will experience an economic collapse due to the upcoming rapid decline in global oil production.  However, some countries will likely be able to transition better than others, as the leverage and complexity of the economies aren’t as dependent on oil as the highly advanced Western and Eastern countries.

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50 Comments on "Areas Of The World More Vulnerable To Collapse"

  1. Wrt China, they may not be in as bad of shape as it appears. They import quite a bit of oil from Russia which is why they formed their Silk Road initiative. And the global economy needs a strong China economy or at least the factories to keep churning because if China begins to cough the rest of the world will catch a cold to say the least.

    I do see oil spikes being temporary as Steve says because as the price goes higher it begins to slowdown the economy as the prices at the pump causes them to divert their purchases from consumption to fuel. I was reading several articles on ZeroHedge that have been pointing towards lower energy demand/consumption for China.

    • Them = consumers

    • Wrt USA, they may not be in as bad of shape as it appears. They import quite a bit of oil from the Middle East which is why they formed their Military-Industrial initiative. And the global economy needs a strong USA economy or at least the factories to keep churning because if USA begins to cough the rest of the world will catch a cold to say the least.

      I do see oil spikes being temporary as Steve says because as the price goes higher it begins to slowdown the economy as the price at the pump causes them to divert their purchases from consumption to fuel. I was reading several articles on ZeroHedge that have been pointing towards lower energy demand/consumption for USA.

  2. It’s my belief that “you personally” will most likely die of starvation or conflict between 2020 to 2040.

    You will experience a collapse of human civilization, a die-off of humans, a destruction of the ecosystem, a loss of access to mined and drilled resources, and a dark age from which your descendent’s will not reemerge.

    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

    • You are right, Mastermind. The amazing thing is the blindness out there amongst the 99%. They all believe that things are going to go on for the next 50 years as they have gone on for the past 50. The biggest surprise for all, however, is not going to be the collapse of the economy and civilization. The biggest surprise for all is, unfortunately, going to be the tremendous surge of murders and suicides.

      The unprecedented wave of physical, mental, emotional and spiritual dislocation will rip the unprepared, and many of the prepared, to shreds.

  3. Much like a renewable energy economy, fusion reactors, and men on Mars, collapse is always twenty years off…

    • Robert Happek | June 16, 2018 at 2:17 pm |

      To make that statement means to deny that collapse has ever happened. Any decent textbook of history is full of examples of societies which collapsed in the past. Our collective memory is unfortunately too weak in order to care for these events.

      • Oh, I certainly believe a collapse is coming. I’ve been expecting one for the last ten years. It always seem to be just over the horizon, but the can is constantly kicked into the future. As long as there is a surplus of hydrocarbons to drive the world economy, a collapse will always be “in the future”.

  4. Northwest Resident | June 16, 2018 at 12:26 am |

    America could become “energy independent”, but only if personal transportation, office complexes and non-essential industry shuts down. That’s going to eventually happen anyway, IMO. When it does, there will be enough “made in America” oil/energy to maintain essential industry, agriculture and shipping, a sizeable military and some level of state/national government. Anyway, once full blown economic collapse gets underway, America has an “oil piggy bank” called Venezuela that has huge reserves of heavy oil that when mixed with American produced light/shale oil, will provide adequate oil/energy for many years to come assuming a dramatically scaled down energy usage level. Collapse is coming, a lot of people aren’t going to make it, but oil and oil products and machines that run on oil will probably still be around for a lot longer, just at a much lower level.

  5. SteveR,
    In the absence of gold standard, there will never be any deflationary collapse because our lords in the central banks will counter the ongoing deflation by issuing much more fiat currencies (both paper and digital) and distribute them to the various groups in our 21st century semifeudal society. It will create high speed inflation that will brake, or even stop the deflationary trend you care about.

  6. MASTERMIND | June 16, 2018 at 8:51 am |

    I emailed Professor Douglas B Reynolds PhD, Oil and Energy Economics, University of Alaska.

    http://uaf.edu/files/som/REYNOLDS-Doug-2016-CV.pdf

    And I asked him if our upcoming oil shortage will cause a global economic collapse?

    https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg

    He replied;

    “Yes, it will be like that, but may be worse with other extenuating circumstances such as war or the decline of international trade. Hyperinflation as happened in the Soviet and Post Soviet economy is a certainty.”

    https://imgur.com/a/rktmHdt

  7. OutLookingIn | June 16, 2018 at 10:41 am |

    It took 200,000 years for the world human population to reach 1 billion.
    And to reach almost 8 billion, just in the past 200 years!
    What caused this hyperbolic spike in world human numbers?
    In one word – ENERGY.
    First by way of burning coal generating steam, then that of oil in the combustion engine.
    Pre-industrial revolution, a farmer could support himself and a maximum of ten others.
    Post- industrial revolution, that same farmer now feeds multitudes of people.
    Take away mineral energy and the story changes back to animal power.
    In which case, those 4 to 6 billion extra mouths will have to disappear.

    • Robert Happek | June 16, 2018 at 2:12 pm |

      If these extra mouth disappear due to natural death, collapse can be avoided. All it takes is to reduce the birthrates drastically. No wars no starvation needed.

  8. Michael Kohlhaas | June 16, 2018 at 12:09 pm |

    Let the shit come down!!!

  9. Robert Happek | June 16, 2018 at 2:08 pm |

    If birth rates are dramatically reduced, world population could decline significantly within 100 years and match the decline in oil production. So after 100 years, there could be only 1 billion people left on the planet earth. Large cities would depopulate and people would move back to smaller villages and start growing food. So life in the future will be pretty much the same as it was in the deep past. Most people spending their lives in growing food. There will not be any excess consumption, no garbage production, no personal cars. Instead everybody will use a bicycle. Electricity will be available but only at a tiny fraction of the energy used today. That electricity would be used to produce light and run communication devices. I think, with a population of 1 billion, there would be enough solar energy to give every person on earth an allowance of 2 KWH of energy. That does not sound like much. However, with continuing improvements in efficiency, 2 KWH could actually be a lot.

    Finally, what does the word collapse mean ? Does it mean that humanity disappears from Earth ? I doubt that. There will be a painful adjustment period, but life will go on in the post fossil fuel world.

    • Gail Tverberg who is an actuary from http://ourfiniteworld.com believes it’s impossible to go back in time from where we are at, which a high tech interconnected globalized networked industrial economy back to Little House On The Prairie. If you just look at the nuclear waste produced by NPP, who’s going to manage those spent fuel rods? If a collapse occurs it will be ugly, messy and who knows how many will survive. I tend to believe that a collapse of industrial civilization will occur before the end of this century. Though some are not as optimistic as me and believe it will occur much sooner.

    • “Instead everybody will use a bicycle.”

      That seems to be a stubborn meme among local “greens.” The hubris and control-freakishness of it bothers me in the context of local government, which seems manic in the drive to spend millions of dollars tearing up local roads and installing bike lanes everywhere. But something more important seems lacking from the ideology, and I need help putting my finger on it.

      Who will manufacture all the bikes, and how will they be distributed? Why personal bikes, but no other personal vehicles? (Do we presume that local officials might impose some sort of restriction on alternatives?)

      The magnification of importance is a puzzle to me, especially in the context of a macroeconomy. More reasonable IMO is the expectation that vehicles will continue to shrink in size and number generally, but options will remain. And somehow, our descendants will manage to ride bikes on regular roadways, just like we did prior to the “green invasion.”

        • Yeah, I recently participated in a survey where the surveyor seemed particularly interested in learning how well I understood that chart, which is nice, but the chart has no more social context than a diagram of the food chain or list of groceries. You see my point? Going forward, which variables will dominate our relationships and resource allocation decisions? It’s no small question, and I haven’t seen much analysis — just a bunch of goal-seeking statist rationalization and complementary dystopian predictive programming. Mainstream ideology is inadequate, but progressives despise ambiguity, so they fudge, suppress or deny what they can’t control.

          The simplest answer I can imagine without writing at length is that the oligarchical Top is preparing to suck harder from the Bottom than ever before, resulting in extreme disparity and inequity and instability. Inference: the elites will continue to fly their jets, while continuing to preach gospels of scarcity for the survivors of the upcoming red symphony of Demand Destruction. Bike lanes won’t be at the top of people’s minds.

          It’s late; gotta go.

        • Lore,
          you may enjoy listening to “how big oil conquered the world” parts I and II:
          https://www.corbettreport.com/episode-310-rise-of-the-oiligarchs/
          https://www.corbettreport.com/why-big-oil-conquered-the-world-video/
          Name is somewhat misleading. Red pill alert…
          On the bikes – they have its place in energy-deprived society as a most efficient form of moving one’s a$$ (not saying said a$$ will be comfy or safe from harassment from those with more wheels). Electric bikes is a logical development and we may be run over by quiet buggers more often in the brave new world. Enjoy your weekend.

  10. Arnold Ziffel | June 16, 2018 at 5:24 pm |

    Greece is a good example since it has no oil reserves. It nearly collapsed in 2007 and 2008 thanks to oil being over $100 a barrel. ECB’s printing press created borrowed time. Lately Greece has been stabilized but only because of the drop in oil prices which allowed the tourism business to grow. Greece is the canary in mine so to speak.

    • Detroit, Greece, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, next comes the big countries like the US and China..

      • btw, Venezuela has one of the larges oil reserves in the world and use to produce ~4M bopd. They are now defaulting on export contracts and on a verge of complete failure. Societal collapse there is not energy driven.

  11. petedivine | June 16, 2018 at 7:54 pm |

    What I see is an energy distribution system that currently benefits NATO and China. The rest of the world is outside of the energy clique. The Middle East, Africa, India, South East Asia, South and Central America, and Russia are on the outside. As energy becomes less available the clique starts to consume itself. There is a soft war developing between Europe, the U.S., and China over who gets to consume the remaining energy. We’re seeing that stress manifest itself as trade wars, currency wars, the Syrian war, and new alliances are forming. We see china and energy rich producers Russia and Iran forming an alliance at the expense of the U.S. and Europe. I see the U.S. and Saudi alliance being tested. Not that it matters. There are unforeseen consequences as population centers migrate to areas where the energy is flowing. We’re seeing mass migrations to Europe from African and the Middle East. We’re seeing South & Central Americans, Indians, and others migrate to the U.S. The energy end game has already started. We’re all piling into the same lifeboats. I’m sure we will see lots of twists and turns as the quest for energy squeezes the world.

  12. It is ironic that the concern with economic collapse and the hording of gold and silver often coincides with grey or greying hair.

    • 50 years of neo-Keynesian central banking and Big Government has suppressed and punished wealth creation and accumulation for a majority. Growing up in this debt-enslaved, wealth-redistributionist, nanny-statist world, post-boomer generations discarded principles and responsibilities of their forebears, including conservatism and commitment to independence. Cheap energy enabled the herd to live luxuriously on credit, backstopped by the cherished delusion of future productivity and growth and by faith in the collective.

      What this means, responding to your comment, it that those most concerned about the looming change in their circumstances are those who have most to lose: generally, those who pre-date the late-20th-century boondoggle, a generation that grew up with memory of bad times in the past.

      The herd has been acculturated (programmed) to look for support outside of themselves in times of crisis. What should concern us most about the trouble ahead is the reaction when that herd realizes that such support is not forthcoming. Sociopaths show their true stripes during periods of scarcity. In the case of government, we see it already in foreign policy. As the contraction grows, chaos will emerge closer to home.

      • Well said… although it’s extremely difficult to predict how this plays out due to the complexetity of the system. One can make a common sense conclusion and that is your standard of living will decline. One of my strategies is to reduce dependence on a just in time delivery system. Grow what food one is able and get some chickens. I would personally like to get bees but Wisconsin winters aren’t very bee friendly.

  13. Great article Steve. Thank you

  14. Steve,

    Great article. It would be very interesting to me to read a similar account of which countries export and import their food ( water also).

    Any suggestions on where to find that kind of data?

  15. silverfreaky | June 18, 2018 at 12:08 am |

    Miner weaker and weaker.What did i say.In a deflationary time silver is the most worst investment.
    Since 7 years an absolute loser investment.Steve didn’t understand the money system.Energy is not everything.
    I told him years ago as long as 50% of the silver production is not fort the industry they can manipulate the price like they want.
    And still we see to much production.

  16. Steve,
    good stuff, thanks.
    This time you seem to use “energy” and “oil” interchangeably – although quite true when it comes to transportation, oil is only part of the mix. Case in point – Australia, 87% electricity comes from coal. In SHTF situation there will be gasoline rationing but light is likely will be on, at lest for some part of the day (may be less so in SA and NSW when wind is not blowing – they’ve blown up few coal-fired power plants and already facing blackouts). So you can charge electric bicycle to go forage for food…

    • Petedivine | June 18, 2018 at 8:01 am |

      It takes lots of gasoline / diesel to mine coal. Coal mining is extremely energy intensive.

      • Does it? Do you have an estimate of fuel consumption of a longwall miner per MT of coal? There is a lot of brown coal in Vic – it is mined in open pit. I doubt fuel is of any appreciable %%, considering coal cost peanuts (while having highest energy density of any fossil fuels)

        • Please read this article.
          https://srsroccoreport.com/germany-death-of-renewable-energy-bring-on-the-dirty-coal-monsters/

          This is a picture of the Bagger 288 Bucketwheel Excavator being transported to its new home at the massive Garzweiler open-pit Lignite (brown coal) mine in Western Germany.
          These massive strip-mining machines are up to 315 feet high and 721 feet long, weighing 13,500 metric tons and consuming 16.5 megawatts of electricity during a typical day of operation. It can excavate 240,000 tons of coal or 240,000 cubic meters of overburden in a single day — the equivalent of a football field, 98 feet deep (Wikipedia).

          Lignite, known as brown coal has the lowest amount of energy and highest amount of sulfur — it’s ranked DEAD LAST in EROI- Energy Returned On Invested in the coal family.

          • do the math, mate. They are changing to brown coal for a reason – although “DEAD LAST in EROI” in the coal family, it beats the crap out of renewables (kinda low mark, considering some analyst estimate it to be under unity), drags it in an alley and beats some more.
            Victorian brown coal is different from that of German – it is low in Sulfur (<1%; source: http://www.minerals.org.au/file_upload/files/resources/victoria/minerals_fact_sheets/Minerals_-_Fact_Sheets_-_Brown_Coal_-_Lignite.pdf). Even if we take 1MT of coal per MW of electricity and a strip ratio of 1, EROI of that machine on lignite mining for power is still over 7,000. Of course, coal needs to be moved (not far; they prefer to transport electricity).

          • Petedivine | June 18, 2018 at 7:58 pm |

            @ Daniel.

            This is from your reference link. I suggest you actually read it.

            The brown coal of the Latrobe Valley has a high moisture content which ranges from 48 -70 per cent, this reduces its effective energy content (5.8 to 11.5 MJ/kg on a net wet basis or 25 to 29 MJ/kg on a gross dry basis). To date this has prevented it from being export quality coal.

            Power generation from brown coal, having such a high moisture content is more emission intensive than other coals and power generation is currently a major contributor to Victoria’s carbon dioxide emissions.

            The article unsuccessfully tries to put lipstick on a pig.

          • Petedivine,
            I’m not going to argue CO2 as it is a religion debate.
            Are you challenging coal EROI in four digits range?
            My point was – as important and indispensable oil is for today’s economy, pain level of different countries will depend on its access to all sorts of energy, not just crude. Can we agree on this?

          • Daniel,

            According to the new research, Coal EROI is more like 50-60/1. However, the more Sub-bituminous coal that we tap into as we deplete the higher grades, the lower the EROI. Furthermore, a lot of coal the United States uses comes from the Powder Basin in Wyoming. The USGS states there are only 40 years worth of reserves remaining.

            steve

  17. Steve,
    respectfully disagree with your assertion that increase in oil price will make shale oil production uneconomical. Fraction of the fuel in total well cost is relatively small. Even using 5:1 EROI it would still be beneficial to keep on frac’cing.
    Agree that high oil price may collapse demand side and cause deflationary spiral – this will surely break shale oil producers…

  18. Slowpainfuldeath | June 18, 2018 at 5:34 pm |

    This looks like a Hot war starting as son as oil output in the USA falls again. The demand gap left by the USA has been filled by Chindia and there’s no spare capacity to keep Up with a 15 mbbd importer anymore. It’s coming folks. ELM Will return with a vengeance.

    • Reluctant Motorist | June 18, 2018 at 11:50 pm |

      ELM?

      • Slowpainfuldeath | June 19, 2018 at 9:20 am |

        Hughes’ Export Land Model. If you take a look at oil comsumption in Saudi Arabia and Iran, they consume more oil than France and Russia respectively. Oil producers go away first as exporters, they export less and import more, before switching to net importers. There´s two producers in the world with 7+ million barrels/ day export capacity, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Unconventional sources have allowed the USA to cut oil imports to roughly 6 million barrels daily, but not for long. When, not if, the USA needs to increase imports again, there´s simply not going to be enough production capacity. The world oil market then will have China as top importer and Russia as top exporter (It really is that way now) Not looking good for world peace.

        Regards.

        • DisappearingCulture | June 19, 2018 at 5:42 pm |

          “Not looking good for world peace.”
          As I read your post I was thinking the exact same thing…which you stated at the end.
          The countries with the biggest military forces will use them for resource appropriation [energy, rare earth metals,food, etc.]

  19. I might buy into some of the world collapsing but not the entire global civilization all at the same time. The greatest danger to those civilizations that can transition will be exactly what we are seeing in Europe today with migrants. People in collapsing civilizations will be desperate to get to those nations that are successfully transitioning like the ship has sunk and the people in the water are swimming to the life boats…in such numbers that they might sink the lifeboats too.
    -Fusion reactors may be far off but Thorium Molten Salt Reactors whose waste fuel is only dangerously radioactive for 200 years versus 200,000 years.
    -The ability for cars-SUVs-Trucks to transition from 10-20mpg to 50+mpg can happen within years if auto companies thought people were ready to buy them. Same with Fuel Cell Trucks.
    -Solar Roofing Shingles and Solar Films for windows are already entering the market.
    What your really talking about is a major restructuring of our energy and technology mix. Depending on how fast…your talking about trillions of dollars of roads and buildings that will need to be redesigned. That’s going to require a huge number of people and automation. Its a function of time and desperation/motivation.

    At the same time the open question will be how fast and how expensive will it be to transition an economy. There may be some nations that experience widespread starvation and economic collapse if fast and expensive or they may be able to transition with their primary worry being over population (more people than their nation can feed and employ) if slow enough for nations to take advantage of price drops as high technology transitions to a commodity.

    PS: It doesn’t make sense for prices to be low and energy to be scarce. There would have to be some sort of financial collapse such that low (very low, cheap) energy is still to expensive for a nation with a collapsed currency. Perhaps its a currency collapse and not an energy collapse.

    • OutLookingIn | June 18, 2018 at 10:55 pm |

      “Perhaps its a currency collapse and not an energy collapse”.

      The interaction between both is very close.
      Currency is an energy IOU. Future energy must be used to generate the wealth, that the currency unit represents. To bring this energy to market, producers must first “sell” an IOU into the market place so as to generate “currency” that pays the energy generation operations.
      This is the virtual credit circle that must keep spiraling upward, that keeps central bankers up at night with nightmares! Once this credit/energy linkage is destroyed… The End.

    • “I might buy into some of the world collapsing but not the entire global civilization all at the same time.”

      I suggest you read Gail Tverberg’s work on http://ourfiniteworld.com There she explains how the global economy is currently designed like Leonardo’s Stick Toy, pull out the wrong stick and it all collapses. Pretty much every economy on the planet uses some form of the J.I.T. Delivery system. If the system breaks down the entire system gets affected.

      To put it in perspective when we had the banking crisis in 2008, Hank Paulson told G.W. Bush that if the TBTF Banks were not bailed out the entire global economic system would come to a COMPLETE stop. Those are his words in the book he wrote going so far as to say the USA would implement Martial Law and their would be tanks in every major city trying to keep law and order. That was just the start.

      If the global economic system collapses which eventually it will because “math” says so, humans will be in the crosshairs. And as Steve has writing on many occasions, the high amounts of energy inputs to keep close to 8 billion humans alive on this planet is staggering. Energy is in everything we need to keep us alive. And who helps pay to keep the lights on? The answer is, the TBTF Banks who provide credit to the energy companies to go find the energy to keep the lights on.

      So yeah the scenario of a global economic collapse could directly impact everyone on this planet in a “VERY, VERY BAD” way if and when it all comes crashing down. So I would not rule out a worse case scenario.

  20. GOLDandSILVER | June 19, 2018 at 5:04 am |

    Big problems ahead. I absolutely agree with the author

    India To Consider Non-OPEC Suppliers To Bargain For Cheaper Prices

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/03/28/india-to-consider-non-opec-suppliers-to-bargain-for-cheaper-prices

  21. Gold & Silver getting smashed. Gold is down $100 from its April high and Silver looking like it will go below $16

    Everyone will be able “load up the truck” for the 95th time … LOL

    (I know this wont make it on the website but pontificating the truth makes you feel good)

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