Silver Market Set Up For Much Higher Price Move Than Gold

When the paper markets finally collapse, the silver market is set up for much higher price gains than gold.  Why?  Because the fundamentals show that precious metals investment demand has put a great deal more pressure on the silver supply than gold… and by a long shot.

There are three crucial reasons why the silver price will outperform the gold price when the highly inflated paper markets disintegrate under the weight of massive debt and derivatives.  While many precious metals investors are frustrated by the ability of the Fed and Central Banks to continue to prop up the markets, the longer they postpone the day of reckoning, the worse the collapse.

The first reason I wrote about in my article, Critically High U.S. Silver Supply Reliance In Jeopardy When Paper Markets Crack:

the United States silver net import reliance as a percentage of total consumption, was 72%, versus 36% for copper and a negative 48% for gold.

This chart shows that the U.S. relied upon 72% of its domestic silver demand from foreign sources in 2015.  Thus, U.S. silver supply reliance (72%) is double that of copper (36%), while U.S. gold demand enjoyed a 48% surplus versus its domestic supply.

The second reason the silver price will surge higher than the gold price is due to the amount of physical silver, in total ounces, purchased by investors versus gold:

From 2010 to 2016, investors purchased a total of 1,505 million oz (Moz) of silver bar and coin compared to only 284 Moz of physical gold.  Thus, precious metals investors purchased five times more silver ounces, than gold ounces during this seven year time period.

Of course, the total value of physical gold investment was much higher than silver during this time period, but this tremendous amount of silver bar and coin demand has impacted the silver market much greater than the gold market.

This brings me to the third reason.  Due to the huge amount of silver bar and coin demand since 2010, the silver market suffered a net deficit of 801 Moz.  However, the 284 Moz of gold bar and coin demand did not impact the gold market the same way.  According to the World Gold Council, the gold market enjoyed a small 7.5 Moz net surplus during this time period:

While it is true that World Gold Council may be underestimating Chinese physical gold demand, and its impact on the annual surplus of deficit figures, a 7.5 Moz surplus is only 3% of the 284 Moz total gold bar and coin demand figure 2010-2016.   However, the 801 Moz net silver deficit is more than 50% of total silver bar and coin demand during that same time period.

Which means, physical silver investment demand is causing much more stress on the silver market than it is on gold.  While the silver market has been able to supplement the annual deficits with old silver coin stocks or large bars that were liquidated during the 1990’s, this is not an endless supply.

According to the data I obtained from the GFMS Team at Thompson Reuters, invested dumped a net 580 Moz of silver bar and coin on the market between 1995-1999.  Now compare that to the past five years (2012-2016) as investors purchased a net 1,152 Moz (1.15 billion oz) of silver bar and coin.

And here is the CLINCHER.  From 1985 to 2007, the total net silver bar and coin demand was a NEGATIVE 95 Moz.  Which means investors sold a net 95 Moz of silver bar and coin in that 23 year period.  However, investors purchased a net 1,785 Moz of silver bar and coin from 2008 to 2016.  This is a huge TREND CHANGE.

After the U.S. financial and economic meltdown in 2007, investors continue to purchase a record amount of silver bar and coin.  This has put severe stress on the silver market as the total net deficit since 2008 surpassed 1,155 Moz.

While the silver market will continue to supplement the ongoing annual deficits with old silver stocks, this supply is not endless.  Furthermore, the days of the TRUMP STOCK MARKET RALLY are numbered.  The last time the stock market crashed 2,000 points in the beginning of 2016, investors flocked into gold and silver in a BIG WAY.

In conclusion, the fundamentals in the silver market are setting up for a much higher price spike than gold due to the three reasons stated in the article.  The timing of these event is hard to forecast as it is difficult to pinpoint when the Fed and Central Banks lose control of their massive market intervention.  My work is not meant to provide a short term outlook on the precious metals, rather it offers fundamentals that will win out over the medium to longer term.

Precious metals investors need to look at buying and holding gold and silver the same way an individual puts money away each month in their 401K, pension plan or retirement account.  The difference between the precious metals investor acquiring PHYSICAL METAL compared to individual acquiring PAPER ASSETS or DIGITS, is one is real wealth, while the other is an IOU.

Those who transition out of PAPER-DIGIT IOU’s and into physical gold and silver before the FAT LADY SINGS, will be rewarded with much better options.

To understand why the markets may be heading for big trouble, check out my article, A Large Crack Appeared In The Global Market… And No One Noticed.

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79 Comments on "Silver Market Set Up For Much Higher Price Move Than Gold"

  1. How does platinum (as an investment) fit with the other PMs? Statistics are harder to get on Pt. Yet Pt is rarer than gold as well as having substantial industrial use (catalytic converters, catalysts in general).

    Platinum is also value-dense, one of the main reasons why I hold it.

    The Au:Pt price ratio is at about 1.21 now (gold 21% more expensive), down from its peak of about 1.32. Still, Pt through history usually sells at a premium to gold (vs. the 20% or so discount now). History hints that Pt is a buy… Noted geologist Mickey Fulp just put out a report on Pt vs. Au:

    http://www.goldgeologist.com/mercenary_musings/musing-170206-The-46-Year-Record-of-Platinum-Gold-Ratios.pdf

    Almost all platinum also is produced mostly two unsavory and perhaps unstable places: South Africa and Russia.

    • DisappearingCulture | February 7, 2017 at 9:42 am | Reply

      “How does platinum (as an investment) fit with the other PMs?”

      It doesn’t have as many industrial uses as silver by a large margin, and gold and silver have a history of being money.

  2. I have two older friends who are a few years off retirement who bought a lot of silver at 42 and 45 dollars receptively and they told me they are close to throwing in the towel. I feel sorry for them, they are going to lose a lot of money. So be careful, silver is a very risky investment and should only be bought as a hedge in my opinion. Not to make money.

    • Well . . sorry but no investment is for idiots. . everyone with a clear mind and at least two weeks of research understands how bubbles work. Most people are lazy and greedy at the same time.

      I always predicted the silverprice correctly half a year ahead. I never missed by more than 40 cents.But still no one is listening to me ^^ because I am “too young” . . “not professionally trained” . . have “no degree” . .
      People listen to loud idiots . . and banksters. And that’s the problem. A idiot-cousin of mine could have made 3.6 Milllion € in 3 month with his 100.000 € heritage if he had done exactly what I have told him . . but instead he bought a small ugly 200.000 € flat (houseprices in munich are high (BUBBLE)) and has now 100.000 € debt because some “EXPERT” told him to do so. . . from 0 to 100.000€ to MINUS 100.000€ and a moldy old flat with still 20 years before he can retire and needs another 30.000€ to restore this piece of crap..From workslave to a workslave in debt.

      I think people deserve the losses they create. And I am absolutly not sorry for them like I don’t want anyone to be sorry for me if I make a wrong bet . . because it’s still making money WITHOUT WORK.

      If you work your ass off for a product, write a book etc . . you earned it.
      And If you want to earn by investing you have to put the same energy into research!
      It’s alsways work that pays!

      Every person who puts no time in research before betting greedy his lifesavings is better of going into a casino and putting everything on red.

      So BUY when it’s low and the economy is faceing the end . . NOW
      And DONT BUY when Silverprices are as high as gold now.
      That is the moment when you buy a house with your silver ..

      • My post was not to garner sympathy for my friends but to state my opinion that physical gold and silver are a hedge not an investment. That is what the futures market is for. I “invest” in gold and silver by buying and selling futures contacts.
        My friends mistake was not that they paid big money for it but that they bought it for the wrong reasons.
        Gold and silver come into their own when paper fails in which case the amount of money you paid for them is immaterial.

        • Silver and Gold are investments as much as any other real asset. Your friends are a small sample of millions of investors and savers across the globe over the millennias. Think on that. Your little sample means nothing other then they bought for the wrong reasons and at the wrong time. Silver and gold are more then just a hedge. They are tangible, portable, and everlasting wealth.

          • “Silver and gold are more then just a hedge. They are tangible, portable, and everlasting wealth.”

            no, they’re money. and no amount of money of any kind or quantity is ever worth more than what is available for purchase.

        • Barry,

          I gather you didn’t read the Jan 4th press release by GATA who published a Wikileaks document that provided evidence that the U.S. and British conspired to start the GOLD & SILVER FUTURES TRADING MARKET to siphon liquidity away from PHYSICAL METAL and into a paper system.

          Here is the link: http://www.gata.org/node/17081

          While the futures markets are a place to properly HEDGE a commodity, industrial metal or energy, it is a much different for the few real STORES OF VALUE of gold and silver.

          Barry… of all people, you should realize as you play in the futures markets, if a small percentage of these funds made there way into PHYSICAL GOLD & SILVER, we would be witnessing much higher prices.

          Again, the Wikileaks cable that was published on the GATA website suggests that the implementation of the PRECIOUS METALS FUTURES MARKETS was done to negate physical buying:

          TO THE DEALERS’ EXPECTATIONS, WILL BE THE FORMATION OF A
          SIZABLE GOLD FUTURES MARKET. EACH OF THE DEALERS EXPRESS-
          ED THE BELIEF THAT THE FUTURES MARKET WOULD BE OF SIGNIFI-
          CANT PROPORTION AND PHYSICAL TRADING WOULD BE MINISCULE BY
          COMPARISON. ALSO EXPRESSED WAS THE EXPECTATION THAT LARGE
          VOLUME FUTURES DEALING WOULD CREATE A HIGHLY VOLATILE MAR-
          KET. IN TURN, THE VOLATILE PRICE MOVEMENTS WOULD DIMINISH
          THE INITIAL DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL HOLDING AND MOST LIKELY
          NEGATE LONG-TERM HOARDING BY U.S. CITIZENS.

          steve

          • i understand what is written in the article, but i also know about fundamentals of demand and supply. if demand is so high, and supply is falling over the past several years , and the market is supposed to be forward looking and based upon fundamentals … then why does silver and gold fall year on year. i understand about paper markets but fundamentals are supposed to be fundamentals. and at the end of the day , let’s not kid anyone here, the articles on the thread boast that gold is supposed to be around 9k and is supposed to rise to 50k … all of which might happen, maybe. but i must contess that i’m somewhat scared of what society will be like if that happens, and if your gold oz was worth 50k there will be no where to spend it.

          • shawn,

            There is no way to predict the outcome in the future. However, I will guarantee that GOLD & SILVER will provide more OPTIONS than 99% of the PAPER ASSETS in the market. When we can realize the simplicity of that, there is not need worry about this or that outcome.

            steve

          • Yes I know that. What is important to me is when silver went from 50 dollars to 13 dollars because of the futures market I could sell my silver by shorting and keep it in physical form. So ended up with the money and currency.
            Anyway, I will not comment on gold and silver again and restrict my comments to energy from now on. I am sorry if I said the wrong thing.

        • All this . . this site . . the charts . . the intelligent people here . . mean nothing . . if the idiot on the street thinks different.

          If they can calm the idiots out there with new funny technologies . . weed for everybody, some good netflix and enough por.n they dont give a sh.it about a silverprice . . and the price won’t rise a dime. I think they wouldn’t even care much if war brakes out. It would be a normal Friday . . just with tanks.

          I think the “idiot-on-the-street-factor” is ignored to much . .
          The idiot on the street is the reason everything STILL holds together . . because their tv tells them to buy stuff . ., smile a lot, and work harder for less.
          And it works perfectly.

          Some people compare the next collapse with the collaps in the beginning of the last century . . but the “idiots-on-the-street” were a lot smarter back then.
          They demanded to have Silvercoins in their currency.
          They were anxious people with little to no things that would distract them like the idiots today have. They talked about politics in big rounds with cigars and livemusic. They read the newspaper when people really worked on storys instead of buying them from reuters exclusively. Picture included.

          Every kind of communication builds trust. Today people have little to no communication with their family . . but with their pocket-sreen.
          And this huge Nato-Desinformation-Denunciation-Web calms people.
          They believe the enemys of their lifestyle are russians and Terrorists and not the money in their pockets.

          So what happens when the system caves in?
          – The russians hacked the western banks! Let*s all kill them!
          or
          – Terroits hacked the banks! Let’s all kill them!
          or
          – The new chosen TrumpPinjata is to blame for everything! Lets kill him!
          . . and then let’s use this new digital currency that is worth nothing . .:D

          And people will cheere like crazy.
          It’ll be a smooth transfer without much problems . . and people can now ignore that their country has more triillions in debt . . because it’s so unreal.

          And nothing changed . . . because the idiot on the street things everything is fine.

      • “I always predicted the silverprice correctly half a year ahead.”

        COOL! ok, so what will it be on 07aug2017?!

        • I can answer that. They will be worth gold and silver coins. That is, they will be worth something.

          • Now you can´t predict the price. But you magically got the exact top at 50 and exact bottom at 13.
            C´mon you are just promoting paper, just as the bankster wishes and they have been pushing that scam since 1974:
            “TO THE DEALERS’ EXPECTATIONS, WILL BE THE FORMATION OF A
            SIZABLE GOLD FUTURES MARKET. EACH OF THE DEALERS EXPRESS-
            ED THE BELIEF THAT THE FUTURES MARKET WOULD BE OF SIGNIFI-
            CANT PROPORTION AND PHYSICAL TRADING WOULD BE MINISCULE BY
            COMPARISON. ALSO EXPRESSED WAS THE EXPECTATION THAT LARGE
            VOLUME FUTURES DEALING WOULD CREATE A HIGHLY VOLATILE MAR-
            KET. IN TURN, THE VOLATILE PRICE MOVEMENTS WOULD DIMINISH
            THE INITIAL DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL HOLDING AND MOST LIKELY
            NEGATE LONG-TERM HOARDING BY U.S. CITIZENS.”
            No, you don´t fool me

    • DisappearingCulture | February 7, 2017 at 9:44 am | Reply

      “So be careful, silver is a very risky investment….”

      It was at those prices. It isn’t now at these prices.

    • Barry, i too have a few older friends close to their retirement. They are up to their ears in overleveraged paper markets full of empty promises in an over 300 % debt to gdp ratio financialized world backed by central bankers with only one option left: doing more of the same. As soon as we reach zero net energy surplus the paper bubble will pop like a nuclear bomb. They too are close to throwing in the towel and start buying physical gold and silver. The main entrance is on fire as we speak.

      Indeed. Its not about making money. Those days are almost over. Its about preserving wealth.

      • Right. I would even say: preserving LIFE since wealth will be a different thing in a world that has no more dollars to throw around. The Billionares of yesterday are then just idiots with paper. But the important part is that silver is actually recognised as wealth by the common people . . . that is what worries me the most.

        It is like listening to one of those idiots who sell healing stones. They really believe in the magic power . . but the rest of the world doesn’t so they are still 2,99 the piece.. .

        • Arno , Nothing would thrill me more than a world which you’re describing !!! First and foremost we will be able to not have to worry about the ” idiots ” stealing our precious metals ! They won’t even know what they are looking for should they even get so lucky to be next to some ! What’s not to like about that ! Now , moving beyond idiotville . I have to believe that there will be enough serious minded and informed individuals with like minds to know the daily worth of both physical gold and silver. Within the last 5 years alone the purchase volume of ASE’s alone tell us that we Don’t worry about the “idiot’s “. They’ll probably be happy to get aboard the FEMA buses any way , to be given a cot and 3 squares per day.

          • “purchase volume” , , ,

            The artificial worth of money today creates artificial boundaries that would fall instantly if the money looses it’s worth. . .
            As a metaphor: Imagine an intelligent billionare (not from idiotville) who is buying a lot of silver right now.
            Looks great for us . . Someone who understands true wealth right?
            Someone who will validate the worth of our investments when the time is desperate.
            Someone influential, important who will tell the people what silver is worth so they can all accept silver as money. . . but .

            He hires people to store it . . he hires people to protect it . . he hires people to protect him. Then the system collapses and the worthless, digital, papermoney won’t pay his hired staff . . so the crucial question is:
            Will the staff (FROM IDIOTVILLE) now accept silver as payment so he can KEEP his power and wealth to tell the world how important it is to own silver?
            Or will they kill the greedy dwarf, loot a bit and then just run away to their famillies to find a new save haven together before it gets worse?
            In this very plausible case the intelligent billionare has a lot of metall in his basement but 100 people around him who just take what they need from the pile. Because the real worth is now: Having a weapon to keep what you have.
            The metall spreads but is soon forgotten because food is the new money.

            (Even if they would accept silver as payment. . there is not an endless amount of silver so the scenario has the same end eventually)

            Who tells the people now that silver is the real deal since the small people/ his staff where never interested in metalls. They would rather trade Iphones or Gucci-Crap . . That is the worth they know and understand.

            I mean . . Silver is a medium for some specific tasks .
            1. Making important Payments when the system is ABOUT to collapse.
            This gives you an advantage between all the other people who struggle to keep their home and life together. This draining process could strech over a looong period of time while the goverments FIGHT to keep it all together.
            Silver and Gold would build the expected bubble but people soon realize that they would rather have a gun and food at home.

            2. Exploit the bubble very very fast.
            Buy a house with the silver right before the total collapse.
            But one you can defend and grow food in.
            You will find some good offers because people want to get away . . especially rich people who think they can start over anywhere else. They would love to take solid silver with them to south america. So prepare offers. You shouldn’t be surprised if 500 Ounces buy you the perfect high class house at that time.
            Stack food and things to defend it with. Dont forget Water. .
            Take your best friends with you. You’ll need them.
            (Because you are the dumbest investor if you think that silver is everything you need)

            And that’s it . . rien ne va plus

            During a collapse you can forget using silver for anything. Just hide and wait until you have the “new order” that keeps everythig together. . Because no one will accept silver. And if they will . . they might as well cut your fingers off to get the rest.

            3. Change into the next new currency.
            The financial world is renewed and the idiots are happy with the reset.
            The precious metal traders open again with heavy security measures.
            A little monitor shows a huge number for any ounce of silver you can bring. . .

            Dont loose it before the collapse ..
            (exept you risk buying a house instead of moving away)
            Dont loose it in the collapse . .
            Cash in after the collapse and you have won the waiting game.

          • Arno Nymous,

            Nice. Right on the money.

    • Loren Krzykowski | February 7, 2017 at 10:49 pm | Reply

      Silver and Gold Prices have been manipulated by banks for years. Suppressed so that they can buy up huge piles for nothing, then let it rise a little and sell. Wash, Rinse & Repeat. Once Silver and Gold are freed up, they will rocket out into the stratosphere! As soon as the fed tries to raise interest rates and the dollar starts it’s final plunge, METAL WILL RULE!!! (sounds like a 1980’s Concert : )

    • Loren Krzykowski | February 7, 2017 at 11:05 pm | Reply

      Just remember Barry, no matter what anyone tells you, your friends are holding REAL MONEY and what they traded for REAL MONEY was 42 and 45 Fiat Currency (monopoly money) and when the fiat currency starts to deflate (as a balloon would) or pop (as a bubble would) We will all realize that the paper stuff is just that….paper. REAL MONEY for thousands of years has been gold and silver. When your grandparents would tell you they could buy a loaf of bread for 10 cents or a gallon of gas for 20 cents, it was silver in those thin dimes that kept it’s value. The value in 2 silver dimes (before 1965) will STILL buy you a gallon of gas today. That’s the value of REAL MONEY.

    • The had a chance to load up from 4 to 8 bucks why would they buy so high?

  3. Any investment is risky . . . the trick is to buy low & sell high . . . which is easier said than done . . . who wants to buy silver when its unloved at $ 7 an ounce, no one . . . but when everyones getting on the gravy train at $ 45 and taxi drivers are telling you to buy it coz it could go to $ 100 – could be a good time to offload half.

    Anyway, physical is your insurance policy against the evil banksters . . .

    • Another good insurance is to trade online against Silver and buy real silver at the same time.

      If they press the Silverprice further down and you went short on silver with a big leverage YOU WIN a lot of cash. (and – additionally – still have your shiny physical silver)
      PLUS: the lower the price gets . . the more extracash you have to buy EVEN MORE physical ounces. So you can’t be hurt in ANY WAY and might even cheer for a falling price to stack higher and higher.

      If the Silverprice is getting where he should be YOU WIN in the worth of every single physical ounce you own. Then you lost the – anyway- worthless papermoney. So, who cares?

      Don’t be afraid to trade. It’s very easy to learn and you need no permits or anything.
      It’s the onlinepoker of people who really what to make money.
      But don’t use money you need! Never!
      And take your time to lern. It’s very stressfull if you loose money.
      Don’t get too greedy or risky. Just make “bets” to insure your wealth.

  4. The nice thing about buying physical silver is that once you buy it , you own it . No game playing by outside sources.No one can automatically cancel out what you have purchased and might be accumulating.
    Times still allow for purchases by the ounce . There are 28.3495 grams per ounce.
    Buying 90% silver dimes is also a good practice . There could come a time where the physical is being sold by the gram only based on availability and the dime will make a convenient trading tool.

    • “There are 28.3495 grams per ounce.”

      you may want to have another look at that “ounce” thing.

    • You own it until someone knows about it.
      The countrys will treat metall-investors like economic terrorists which have to be hunted down until they give away their silver and gold for the “benefit ot all”.
      Of course you are foced to take digital currency for it ^^ . . so its not stealing. . .

      ANOTHER NOTE TO ALL.
      Just buy 99,99% Silver.
      Never a smaller percentage! , , Maple Leafs for example have 99,99% but American Eagles just 99,9%. for a higher price . .
      Why just clean silver?
      The reason is simple. In a world that is about to get chaotic silver and gold dealers will close down so there wont be much locations where you still could trade your Silver safely for Papercrap in case you still need some or it is a new currency and you want to buy something.
      So you can still go to someone who buys industrial silver for his production because it is clean enough to melt directly and can be used for production. They will pay the correct up to date price and have a highly secured location to trade.

      • DisappearingCulture | February 8, 2017 at 6:45 am | Reply

        I don’t know what country you are in, but in the U.S. Silver eagles with their .999 are far more popular than any .9999 with the silver buyers

    • The thing with: you really OWN it .. is true,
      BUT sadly you give up the part with the fungibillity.

      You own it because no one accepts it as payment for anything.
      You can’t buy a bike with it. So no one cares if you have it . . so you truly own it.
      “Owning” is – in reference to silver- another word for being “lonley with it”.

      You can get even more lonley with it when people get too interested in silver and someone get’s scared, dreams up that we now have to regulate who is allowed to have exactly how much silver.
      Or they can forbid the owership and every trade with it “to counter crime, terror and tax evaders” to “secure our fragile world-economy and safety”.
      So you dont want to own it so intimatly that you have to hide it forever.
      Wealth is just wealth if you can share the value with other people who have a demand for it and defend their demand too.. That is the sad truth.

      So . . everyone who buys silver HAS to openly promote and defend the ownership of silver – underlinded with fundamentals- to ensure and further build it’s right to exist as a currency and suitable store of wealth again!
      Just when more people understand what silver is they can elevate it to the place it deserves . . but if you stack alone in the basement your wealth has no Surface to reflect back on you.

      This site is all about the theoretical worth of precious metalls . .
      but you are the one who has to manifest it’s worth in the real world or NO ONE else will do it for you. EVERYONE out there is against you and your metall.

      Your parents would like to see you invest in “reasonable” CRAP with nice interestrates.
      Your friends think you are a lonely conspircy theorist with a weird thirst for completly useless coins to proof any kind of point.they still don’t get
      Your girlfriend is sceptical about you spending the money on “metalls” instead of “usefull stuff we NEED NOW”.
      If you even have one. . .
      Your Gouverment thinks you evade taxes.
      The police thinks you keep stolen goods or you are at least involved in any kind of crime that needs to avoid digital transactions.
      The really sick, exploiting, greedy rich people (socoipaths) think you are one of them.

      So there is a lot to clean up before silver can see the peak.
      It’s in your hands.

  5. WRONG. PM’s are on their way DOWN!!!! Economy is improving, Thanks to Trump. Market is soaring, USD is gaining value over other Currencies, Jobs are increasing etc. BEWARE THE PUMP AND DUMPERS!!!!!!!!!! REMEMBER THEY HAVE TO SELL PRODUCT TO SURVIVE!!!

    • Due to the nature of two very real and in your face facts , Jonathan , I disagree with your thinking.
      # 1. There is overwhelming evidence which has taken place and will not just go away in the form of wall street erosion of the middleclass , quantitative easing in the Trillions of dollars , central bankers stealing trillions through their manipulative tactics , politicians draining every American of their hard earned assets through lobbying connections , and on and on the list goes. Overall the sludge is massively overwhelming for the Trump & Co. to just sweep away !
      # 2. Physical silver has been used in MANY applications for such industries as electronics ,medicine ,water filtration purposes , +++. / Due to the make believe paper world of silver and their cooked up number of phony ounces of Ag. we’ll probably never know the moment of truth until it hit’s us like a 2X4 upside the head and all at once. You can bet on that horse , that that day is galloping towards us at a fevered pace !

      • “that that day is galloping towards us at a fevered pace !”

        … and has been for ten years now. remember when SLV was 45$?

        you’ll never know the truth. when comex goes black, that’s the only truth they’ll tell you.

    • By the time mr. Trump reaches the end of his first term the west has to suck $15,- in debt out of a sore thumb to get $1,- in GDP.

      Remember, they have to sell dreams to keep the nightmare alive!

  6. What is missing in the current investment environment is CLEAR OWNERSHIP; this is why holding tangible financial instruments such as precious metals is important.

    Spelled out; physical ownership without a counter-party i.e. the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation a subsidiary also known as Cede & Company.

    Most investors have no idea that they have only ‘fungible ownership’ in any given stock they think they own that is actually held in trust by Cede & Company who hold the instruments as the ‘holder in due course.’

    This is a direct quote: “Most large U.S. broker-dealers and banks are full DTC participants, meaning that they deposit and hold securities at DTC. DTC appears in an issuer’s stock records as the sole registered owner of securities deposited at DTC. DTC holds the deposited securities in “fungible bulk”, meaning that there are no specifically identifiable shares directly owned by DTC participants.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depository_Trust_%26_Clearing_Corporation

    Buyer beware of counter-party ownership.

  7. The prices of silver and gold are being suppressed to prop up the dollar. Eventually the price suppression will end and metals prices will explode. I expect silver to go back to its traditional ratio of 1/12 to 1/16 of the gold price. It’s at about 1/70 now. Silver has a lot more upside than gold.

    • Loren Krzykowski | February 7, 2017 at 11:28 pm | Reply

      Barn Cat is “Right On The Money”. (Sorry, I couldn’t resist : ) Silver is THE WILD CARD. If you are holding Silver, you are about to see a huge gain in Value. When, not if, Silver and Gold Right themselves, even if gold doesn’t go up one cent, but silver rights itself to 1/12, silver will be $100 per ounce. Now let’s say the price of gold rises to $6,000 (5x it’s current price) well now that $42 to $45 spent on an ounce of silver (in 2011) will rise to $500 PER OUNCE. So if Barry’s friends have 100 ounces of silver each, that would be $50,000 each. Silver is a Sleeping Giant.

      • I also think the price will shock people one day….but not for quite a few years yet. I still think we have too many bulls that need bucking off but I’m happy to sit and wait on my 4000oz for the day it does super spike. You say $500 an oz?? …..haha one does wish but I think I’ll be offloading a large amount before it ever gets to that price, and buying bricks&mortar and land.

  8. Price of both gold & silver to correct.

    The current price levels of gold and silver, which is set in the digital fiat paper futures market, has NO bearing on the reality of physical supply and demand. Which is currently at near all time highs and supply is near historic lows.

    The gold/silver ratio has been skewed from it’s very long term (centuries) rate of 16:1 for a generation or more by modern monetary malfeasance. This ratio will revert back to it’s mean from it’s current level which is hovering around 70:1 The past 85 year average high ratio is 83:1

    January 1931 @ 77:1
    March 1936 @ 77:1
    September 1941 @ 97:1
    October 1986 @ 75:1
    January 1991 @ 100:1
    February 1995 @ 83:1
    June 2003 @ 79:1
    October 2008 @ 78:1
    March 2016 @ 80:1

  9. “When the paper markets finally collapse …”

    … it will be because the fiat debt dollar is collapsing. and when that happens no-one will be thinking about g/s at all.

  10. DisappearingCulture | February 7, 2017 at 2:32 pm | Reply

    “Silver Market Set Up For Much Higher Price…..”

    The fundamentals are. I wonder when that will be ‘allowed’ to happen on the Comex? Because short of a retail + wholesale shortage, and premiums going up substantialy, Comex sets the price.

    • “I wonder when that will be ‘allowed’ to happen on the Comex?”

      you’ll never see it. by the time it happens on comex then comex will be shut down and go black, and the federal reserve building will be abandoned and vacant, and all the private airplanes of the “global elite” “international financiers” “deep state” will be gone.

  11. Ray says: Hyperinflation is on it’s way which will drive precious metals thru the roof. Iran will be going off the dollar and Italy will be the next victim to fall. Shortly afterward the EU will fall and then the U.S. will collapse. I could be wrong of course. I think silver will start making it’s upward climb this July along with inflation. I would like some comments on my predictions.
    I have been accumulating silver for some years now and have never paid over $25.00 OZ and at times much less. I have been preparing for this a long time. Also have a 35 acre farm paid for, plenty of food and growing more, I also have a year around stream on my property and a way to filter all the water I can use.
    Since my family ( grown kids ) don’t understand what’s coming I suspect I will be the one to see that they can at least survive. I have been telling them for years to buy precious metals and get out of debt but to no avail. I sure hope you guy’s have been planning. This crash will make the 1929 crash look like a party. Good luck to all.

    • Ray,

      You are not alone. I am in exactly the same position except I have one son-in-law that is finally getting with the program.

      It is our responsibility to protect and provide until the time comes.

      Keep up the good work.

  12. Thanks Steve great work, regards

  13. Keep up the great work Steve !

  14. I look at the ETF Silver and Gold markets as a kind of musical chairs. When the music stops, what will happen with the roughly 150 people who own the SAME ounce of Gold or Silver try to claim the PMs they bought (on paper). ALL of them will be hosed and will not see a single ounce of PMs – no matter how many ounces they think they hold through ETFs.

    I expect there will still be a scramble for physical PMs, but good luck finding any at ANY price. That is the true danger of PM ETFs. The ETFs will all default and those who invested in paper metals will realize much too late that their money was stolen from them and they will have little to no recourse when this happens. To quote an often used adage “If you can’t hold it, you don’t own it”.

    Available above ground Silver is at an all time low and I don’t see supplies increasing anytime in the foreseeable future. There will come a time in the not too distant future when many will be kicking themselves for not buying Silver when they had the chance – even at $45 to $50 an ounce. A single major player can step in at any time and buy up ALL of the above ground Silver. That wasn’t possible for the Hunt brothers when they tried that many years ago, however, there is much less Silver available now and the number of people of wealth have increased since – so it is not inconceivable that there are hundreds of well healed individuals capable of cornering the not so impressive remaining above ground Silver supply. I’m not fear mongering, just stating a simple fact. As with Musical Chairs, where will you be when the music stops?

    Gold (and Silver in particular) have been (and still is) being manipulated by several major financial institutions. The agencies that were responsible to investigate this stated that absolutely NO price manipulation was taking place with Gold and Silver prices. We now know that this is absolutely false and has been going on for years. Their manipulations have kept the prices of Gold (and particularly Silver) artificially low. JP Morgan Chase, HSBC and others did get caught with their hands in the cookie jar. They were and still are making Hundreds of Millions of dollars through their Precious Metals price manipulations. They drive the prices down at will – making millions in the process. Sure they were fined, but they and other financial institutions continue on with keeping the prices of Gold and Silver artificially low. Even though they have been doing this for years, at some point and time, they will lose their control on the PM price manipulations – at which time true market prices will be reflected in the PMs. When that will be, I’m not certain, however, I believe that by sometime between now and 2020, events will cause them to lose control on the PM market manipulation. I predict that when true market pricing becomes a reality, that Silver will realize the highest gains (percentage wise) over Gold.

    I admit that I played around with “paper” PM investing for a few years, but when the PMs became so volatile, I got completely out of paper and began to only invest in physical PMs. I expected to make money by doing so, but that was not my primary motivation. Preservation of wealth was my number 1 reason and number 2 was to have “REAL” money – not Fiat currency. I bought PMs when prices were relatively low and continue to this day to buy – even as prices rise. I bought Silver even when it was in the $30+/oz. range (with no regrets) as I went into this for the “long haul” – not for get rich quick reasons (the absolute WORST reason to invest in PMs – in my opinion).

    I am not wealthy be any means, but by buying a little here and there, over the years I found it surprising how making many small purchases grow. If I had a few extra dollars to spare, I would buy a few ounces of Silver. If I had an Income Tax Refund, I would buy more ounces of Silver with the money I didn’t need for other expenses. Instead of buying a Latte every day, I’d save that money up and buy a few more ounces. Again, as an investor in PMs, as I stated above, I’m in this for the long haul. Whenever I would buy PMs, I would consider the money spent and not look back. I consider myself a small investor, however, sometime down the road, I will have a bit of REAL Money should the need arise. And just for the record, the physical PMs I’ve purchased over the years are today worth more than I paid for them (not by a great deal) and I consider that just a bonus.

    JR

    • “A single major player can step in at any time and buy up ALL of the above ground Silver.”

      if that’s true then someone, or a consortium, already has.

  15. In the above the volume amounts are 1505 to 284, a 5 to 1 ratio; while the price ratio has been around 65 to 1.
    I am surprised there was not far more purchase of silver than gold.
    I fail to see how this would show stronger demand for silver over gold.

  16. “When the paper markets finally collapse.” Why do you do this Steve. It will be 10 years or so before the
    paper markets collapse and you darn well know it. Is doom and gloom our only hope for silver prices
    to rise?

    • “Is doom and gloom our only hope for silver prices to rise?”

      yes.

    • Joe,

      Why do you do this to your self?

      Doom and gloom is why we stack silver. Physical Silver (and gold) are an insurance policy against the collapse of the paper ponzi house of cards and the collapse of the ERO(E)I of oil.

      You have been on this site long enough to know that this is not a site that is hyping silver trades or pushing silver for profit. If that is what you are looking for, I suggest you sign up with Avi Gilbert and make (or lose) money on the paper silver market using the Eliot Wave theory of trading as soon as tomorrow.

      Precious metals are an integral part of preparing for the coming cascading collapse of the world credit markets and the death of fiat currencies. Unlike previous credit catastrophes, when cheap energy was available to come to the rescue, the rapidly decline of ERO(E)I of oil will assure that cheap energy will not be there to save us this time. The resulting destruction of our “on time” delivery system economy will end in famine, chaos, marshal law and epidemics.

      Precious metals alone will not save you in the great destruction but will go a long ways to making your life much better if you should survive the initial calamity.

      The problem many stackers seem to have is the expectation that silver will “go to the moon” but everything else will be relatively the same. Wrong, when silver skyrockets and becomes monetized everything else will have turned to shit.

      Be careful what you wish for and be damn sure you are prepared for when it comes.

  17. Up to now, the big boys favor Gold over Silver. Volume wise, Gold makes more sense for the truly well healed to procure. It takes up far less space than physical Silver would and frankly, for them, Gold makes more sense – especially when they go to move it around. $1million in Gold takes up far less space than $1million in Silver.

    That amount of Silver (as opposed to Gold) would be a logistical nightmare to try and get out of Dodge fast with. We who favor Silver are less likely to be concerned with its bulk – as most of us won’t be loading it on a Lear Jet in the middle of the night in order to travel to sanctuaries abroad for the very wealthy.

    Instead, most of us will be sticking closer to home so bulk (if you are so fortunate) presents no problem. The big boys will buy mansions, politicians, security details etc. so Gold is their best play. For those of us looking to do the best we can in our environments, Silver is the smartest play. We will be dealing with others like us – not the fat cats whose goals are completely different than ours. We look to feed ourselves, cloth ourselves and find some measure of security and community with our pieces of Silver – which would gain velocity upon acceptance by our neighbors and communities. It can become the glue that ultimately binds us – in a way that Gold never could.

    If any of us got so ambitious as to “invest” what I like to call the rent money, then you have made a terrible mistake. PMs are NOT a fast money deal and if you robbed Peter to pay Paul in order to get in on the action, then you are going to be sorely disappointed. This is an unpredictable “long game” and if you cannot manage to be patient and let events unfold, then sell now and move on to the next latest and greatest thing. This ain’t it (yet).

    Don’t buy beyond your means (the rent money) and once bought, secure it and forget about it – ever looking forward and making opportunity buys as funds allow. Rinse and repeat. There will be a reckoning (likely sooner than most think). Everyone’s patients and tolerance levels are different. You control your direction. I sincerely hope you choose the best one for YOU!

    JR

  18. Excellentes analyses !

  19. Ray says: James Randolph has it exactly right. Like I said in a different post. I have been buying physical silver ( not paper silver ) for years. Silver can help to feed you, family and maybe neighbors depending on the size of your community and church. I live in a town of 1,100 where you know the people you can trust.
    This closeness is very helpful. I am not wealthy in money but in community and especially in GOD.
    I feel very fortunate that I have seen this horrible collapse coming for years and thru prayer I have realized what I needed to do. I give CHRIST all the credit for giving me the ability and knowledge to prepare for this mess we have found ourselves. Read and study the BIBLE and you will see the bad mistakes the people in the past have made and the mistakes that we as a society today are making. I know there are millions that are non believers and I can only pray for them and I do. Just look at our founding father’s when our nation became a nation. This country placed GOD above all. We were founded on the Judicial Christian Philosophy. Look at the old colleges like Harvard and above the entrance you will see references to GOD. I am sorry if I come across as preaching. But I honestly believe we are in a mess because of so many people have failed to keep our Lord and Savior above all in their hearts. I also know we will experience many, many worse things in the future. I believe these bad things that are coming are GOD shouting to people; Come to me. He wants our attention. I have listened and heard. HOW ABOUT YOU? Has he reached you or are you even listening?
    May GOD bless you and yours.

  20. I am FAR from wealthy, but I would do everything within my means to help my fellow community members who could use a little boost. Little help in times of trouble doesn’t sound like much – but it can mean the difference between survival or not. I hope someone would do the same for me if needed. A real sense of community is what is going to get us through the bad times to come and ALL, with a sense of community, will get 100% of my efforts and resources and opporturistics will get none. I want to see that all of those with good intentions benefit as much as possible. I am just relative small guy, but I hope others would follow my example. Let’s help those we can (within our means) and ignore the opportunists who try to insert themselves among those who could really use our help. A little help to the right people could be life changing.

  21. For the last 6+ years we have heard never ending hype about a silver “supply shortage”, “manipulation”, “overnight selling raids”, etc etc. There can be no denying that despite the money supply growing rapidly and the economic/debt situation continuing to deteriorate, the price of physical silver is much lower today than years ago. Since 50+% of physical silver demand is from industrial purposes, this 60% collapse in price from the peak can only happen because physical demand for ALL silver has weakened considerably. or supply has boomed. Yes demand for coins has increased however that is a small portion of the market. All this hype about manipulating silver through the paper markets cannot happen when buyers stand for delivery. I have yet to hear the silver bulls explain how the physical price declines when most silver purchasers stand for delivery?

  22. I would have to disagree with you that paper investors “stand” for delivery. When I was investing in paper Silver, I did so because the last thing I wanted to deal with was the storage of physical Silver. I (naively) believed the claims that for every ounce of Silver I bought on paper, a physical ounce was stored in their vaults and allocated strictly to me.

    I have since found out through reliable sources that every ounce of Silver I bought on paper – and that was supposedly allocated strictly to me, was sold to approximately 150 other paper Silver buyers. Simply put, every ounce of paper Silver I bought was resold to 150 other paper Silver buyers.

    There would be no problem until EVERY paper Silver buyer demanded physical delivery of the paper Silver they bought and were assured that every ounce they bought was allocated to them exclusively and was just sitting in that vault – for delivery anytime a demand for delivery was made.

    If ALL of the paper (ETF) Silver buyers ALL demanded delivery of their purchased paper “physical” Silver, how could the ETF’s deliver that one ounce of Silver to the 150 people who bought that same one ounce? Of course, it could not be done and the SWHTF! That’s the reality weather you choose to believe it or not.

    This is not my paranoia speaking. Numerous articles from reputable sources have written repeatedly about this “scam”. Research this yourself. If you choose to invest (or keep investing) in “paper” ETF PMs, just keep what I have posted here in mind. If ETF’s are still for you, good luck and when those ETF Investors demand delivery of their PMs, which of the 150 who own that ONE ounce do you think will be fortunate enough to get that ONE ounce. Here’s a clue, NONE of them AND the price of physical PMs would skyrocket and be in VERY short supply (if available at all).

    I hope I’ve answered your question.

    JR

  23. I forgot to add,

    More Silver has been sold through ETFs than exists above ground. Don’t you find that more than a bit odd?

    JR

  24. Yes I have read in numerous places that the number of paper ounces(ETF’s, etc) outnumber the underlying physical ounces from 60-150 times depending on the source. The point I was making was that since industrial use of physical silver constitutes over 50% of all physical silver, and the coin market is another 10% roughly, means that over 60% of all the silver that is mined is going to be consumed/used and thus the amount the paper leverage is limited to 1/.60 or 1.7 times paper leverage. You can only paper leverage that portion of the market that does not stand for delivery otherwise a massive short squeeze will ensue. The gold market can have far higher paper leverage because only a very small number of the physical ounces are needed by those who stand for delivery. I am saying that there is no way there is 60-150 times paper leverage on the physical silver market because this represents about 180-450 times the amount that a highly shorted stock(ie 33% short interest) would have and you can frequently see violent short squeezes in these highly shorted stocks with only a fraction of their underlying shares borrowed and sold short. I challenge anyone to explain WHY THERE ARE NO SHORT SQUEEZES in the silver market? Any market with such a high percentage of paper ounces traded would be extreemly vulnerable to very small changes in the number of silver traders that stood for delivery. There is a MAJOR flaw of understanding being put forth by the gold/silver bulls in this area. I never buy paper ETF’s and only deal in physical ounces so I do have a vested interest in increasing prices.
    Comments anyone? If my argument above is flawed I would love to have the above issues addressed. Thanks.

    • “I challenge anyone to explain WHY THERE ARE NO SHORT SQUEEZES in the silver market?”

      because there is no publically accessible market. really, if you can see it, then it’s manipulated.

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