Silver Eagle Sales To Jump 25% Due To Deteriorating Market Conditions

Silver Eagle sales will likely jump by 25% in the first quarter due to deteriorating market conditions.  During the first three months last year the U.S. Mint sold 12 million Silver Eagles.  Already, sales of Silver Eagles have reached 13 million.  There are two weeks remaining in March and the U.S. Mint will likely sell another two million.  This will put total Silver Eagle sales for the first quarter at 15 million….. the highest ever.

First-Quarter-Silver-Eagle-Sales-2010-2016

The last record was set in 2013 as the U.S. Mint sold 14.2 million Silver Eagles as the price of silver fell from $32 down to $25 in the first three months of the year.  Regardless, the Authorized Purchasers have been on a one million week allocation for the past two months, so there was no way to acquire more Silver Eagles.

Demand for Silver Eagles this year has hit a record due to deteriorated market conditions.  Even though the Dow Jones Index has added 2,000 points from its low last month at 15,500, this is not a sustainable rally.  Each day, there are more indicators pointing to a worsening economic fundamentals.

Total Silver Eagle sales in 2016 could easily reach 50 million and possibly 55 million if demand remains strong for the remainder of the year.

I believe a certain amount of investors understand that nothing has been fixed in the financial system since the collapse of U.S. Investment Banking and Housing Market in 2008.  This is why we continue to see record buying of Silver Eagles.

I published this chart in a prior article, but it’s worth taking another look… especially if you haven’t seen it yet.  What is interesting about this chart is that cumulative physical Silver Bar & Coin demand is higher in the past four years even though the price has fallen in half:

Global-Physical-Silver-Bar-Coin-Investment-2004-2015

As we can see, cumulative Silver Bar & Coin demand from 2012-2015 was 24,500 mt (788 Moz) versus 19,729 mt (634 Moz) from 2008-2011 (Moz = million oz).

Again, a percentage of investors realize the system continues to get weaker even though the stock and bond markets look good on paper.  This is why silver investment demand continues to be strong even though the price has declined 67% from its $49 high in 2011.

Lastly, even though the Dow Jones Index has increased 2,000 points from its low, the price of silver is at its high for the year.  We have to remember, silver jumped from a low of $13.75 in the beginning of the year to $16 when the Dow Jones fell 11%.  To see the price of silver continue to move higher along with the Dow Jones suggests that something has fundamentally changed in the silver market.

I will be soon releasing a new BULLET REPORT on the Gold Market.  It provides charts and data on how the recent flows are setting up the Gold Market for a big move in the future.

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29 Comments on "Silver Eagle Sales To Jump 25% Due To Deteriorating Market Conditions"

  1. OutLookingIn | March 18, 2016 at 12:03 pm |

    Agree Steve.
    Here are three very apropos historic quotes concerning precious metals.

    “The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.
    This is the shabby secret of the welfare statist’s tirades against [silver] gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold [silver] stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights”.
    – Alan Greenspan 1967

    “Gold [silver] still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold [silver] is always accepted”.
    – Alan Greenspan May 18, 1993

    “Gold [silver] will not always get you good soldiers, but good soldiers can get you gold [silver]”.
    – Niccolo Machiavelli

    • They are good “quotes” OutLookingln

    • A few more relevant quotes:

      “All the major commodities are looking very strong. Many analysts are using the wrong set of spectacles to view the current situation. Typically at the end of an expansionary phase in the economy there is over-capacity of many commodities due to over investment in production infrastructure which results in price declines. The correct action for investors is to sell the commodities and hold cash. Today all commodities are in short supply and the monetary system is collapsing due to a glut of US Dollars. This expansionary phase resulted in an over-production of the only major US export that is still made in America is US Dollars! The correct action for investors is to dump the cash and buy commodities. For the average investor the most convenient commodities to hold are gold and silver. It is as simple as that.” Adrian Douglas

      “US wholesale price inflation hit highest increase rate in 34 years, & consumer inflation rose at highest rate in 2yrs. Inflation rising everywhere, but UK is keeping interest rates steady & EU may raise them to fight inflation, whereas Bernanke will cut int/rates to fight recession. This difference is caused by history. EU has lived thru hyper-inflation in 20’s. US has lived thru hyper-deflation in 30’s. To each his own fear. Cutting rates will increase inflation.” Harry Schultz

      “Thus, it seems to me, the Catch-22. In order to protect dollar hegemony, the US military must be used as enforcer. Yet, wars are expensive, and given the unwillingness of US politicians to pay as they go, inflationary- consequently destructive to dollar hegemony. The very act of protecting dollar hegemony reduces the value of the dollar.” Dude

      “The turn down in US and World business activity is NOT gold bearish, but rather fundamentally gold bullish. I heard this in the 70s and it was totally wrong. I am hearing it again… nothing has changed.” Sinclair’s Formula

      “Just like the formation of galaxies and hurricanes and nautilus shells, the universe of the macro-economy operates through non stochastic fractal growth progression and nonlinear decay. Expect the unexpected.” Gary Lammert

      • Silvrwillwin | March 19, 2016 at 9:14 am |

        Though this piece has nothing to do with the gold and silver subject , the players are very much wrapped up in both. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHgbRYgpGGs
        By all indications the ones running ” US and World business activity” are coming up FAR less than honest.

        • OutLookingIn | March 19, 2016 at 10:38 am |

          Silvrwillin –

          Thank you for the link. The heading speaks volumes;

          “The U.S. Department of Justice offers but the veneer of justice, in a kingdom of crime”.

          Hopefully, the old adage of; Justice denied is but justice delayed, will apply.

  2. This article was tailor made for me I am currently in a purchasing phase of both gold & silver, would you suggest buying fractional coins although they carry a. Higher premium.

  3. James Randolph | March 19, 2016 at 5:34 am |

    Steve,

    Given the (at times) limited availability of Silver American Eagles with their high premiums over Spot Price, would it make more sense for a person of modest means to purchase well known generic Silver Rounds (or Bars) which carry lower premiums over Spot Prices instead? I am curious as to your viewpoint on this.

    I haven’t found ANY Dealers who would sell Silver even close to the daily Ask Price – yet they usually state that they only buy Silver from individuals for Bid Prices (or below). With a high enough premium over Spot Ask Prices, somehow there does not seem to be a shortage of SAEs available for sale.

    I am currently in the process of selling some of my Silver which has numismatic value (in excess of Spot Prices) and then reinvesting the proceeds in Silver Coins or Silver bullion for a net gain in the total number of ounces of Silver I hold. Hence, my reason for asking if I should buy SAEs with a higher premium over Spot Ask – or buy more Silver (well known generic bullion) that can be acquired with lower premiums than Silver SAEs.

    I don’t sell any of my Silver unless I realize enough money from a sale to purchase more ounces of Silver than I sold. Thank you.

    James

    • Unless you are very attached to your numismatic silver [like it came down in the family] I’d do what you are doing “I am currently in the process of selling some of my Silver which has numismatic value (in excess of Spot Prices) and then reinvesting the proceeds in Silver Coins or Silver bullion”

      In the future when silver costs more it may well come down to how many ounces one has of .999 or .9999 [or “junk silver” coins].So generic is a better buy for getting more ounces for the same amount of fiat currency. HOWEVER…if you go to sell the experience of my local dealer is important. He has a backlogged supply of generic .999 bars and rounds. Few are buying that. But he sells all the silver eagles he gets, and maple leafs too. So he is eager to buy those. If he gets into a cash flow crunch becasue he has so much tied up in the generic, he won’t buy more of that.

      IMO a mix of coins like the ASE and Maple Leaf, and generic 1 ounce rounds or bars, and five or ten ounce bars makes sense. You really can’t go wrong either way James. First and foremost you have some.

    • NWT mint .Buy all you want @ .50 over spot. Minimum 200 oz Plus get a silver bullet as well. Only takes a couple of minutes to check all mints and check prices. Lot of good deals out there. At NWM you can get silver bullion in most and size, shape or form.

    • James,

      Yes, it would make sense for people to buy good quality rounds for a much lower premium. However, the majority of Silver Eagles are being bought by Institutions, Hedge Funds or the Wealthy. I know this because I talk with some Dealers who tell me that more than 50% of Silver Eagle buying is by the wealthy. So, they don’t really care about premium. Rather they want to have guaranteed high quality official silver coins.

      You must remember, Official coins are still legal tender.

      steve

      • Steve, I believe this is absolutely correct. More sophisticated buyers think about how these will one day be sold. US currency (Eagles) will be easier to sell than rounds and bars. First time buyers seem to want to lowest premium and prefer not to think about the day they sell their silver.

        Another nice thing about eagles is that it is very easy to identify a counterfeit since the physical dimensions are always the same. This characteristic offers some very nice ways to verify the coin is silver. With rounds there really is no good way to be certain.

        Maples provide these same benefits at a smaller premium.

        Mike

        • “Another nice thing about eagles is that it is very easy to identify a counterfeit since the physical dimensions are always the same. This characteristic offers some very nice ways to verify the coin is silver. With rounds there really is no good way to be certain.”

          I’m going to disagree with you on this. Some private mints have very high standards of consistency PLUS anti-counterfeiting markings the U.S. Mint doesn’t have.

      • “You must remember, Official coins are still legal tender.”

        I really don’t know what difference legal tender status means even though I have thought about it.

  4. I’m trying to put some perspective on the cumulative silver bar and coin demand from 2012-2015 (788 Million ounces). Assume that each buyer during that four year period purchased a total of three monster boxes, or 1,500 ounces of silver. The number of buyers works out to be about 525,000, roughly the population of Tucson, Arizona!

    This tells me once the world wakes up and realizes how serious the global fiat debt crisis has become, the ensuing stampede into precious metals will be overwhelming. Every day that goes by brings us that much closer…

  5. There are lots of good deals out there right now, like one 10 ounce bar for 49 cents over spot [cash/check/money order] with free shipping from one huge metals dealer.

    which goes to show no retail shortage at this time.

  6. 1000 Bagger | March 19, 2016 at 1:14 pm |

    Silver could rise over 1000 Dollar todays buying power! a huge opportunity! http://gebert-trade.weebly.com/big-big-silver.html

  7. I don’t have a lot of silver (about 13,000 oz. ) but I buy nothing but silver eagles. I might be wrong but I feel this is the best route to take.

    comments appreciated:

    • Ray,

      I would say owning 13k oz. of any silver product is impressive! Coins seems to win out on this site vs. rounds. I have only coins as well, but from several mints. Regardless your choice of ASE’s should prove most profitable in the days ahead once the USD debasement is in full-tilt and banks start to rollover – again!

      I was wondering though if you just started investing in the last several years or if you’ve done so for a decade or longer when the fiat prices were much lower?

  8. Hey Mark,

    Thanks for your comment. I have been buying for the last four years. I really never paid much attention to metals or the stock market for that matter, but after I retired and had a lot of free time I spent a great amount of my time fixing up my house. After a couple years of that and traveling around the states and meeting and talking to a lot of people, I realized this country was headed for deep trouble. I was amazed at how in the dark I was about the economy. The amount of people I met that were losing their jobs was astounding. I felt fortunate I had a decent retirement. But, I started thinking what would happen if I lost that retirement. I would be in deep do do and it could happen to me like it has happened to so many Americans. So, I stayed home after my jaunt around the states and about four or so years ago I started saving every dime I could scrape up and bought silver. I mean I have been living like a damn hermit so I could buy silver. I still might not have enough to see me thru this coming crisis BUT. I am old enough that I won’t need as much as you younger folks. My house by the beach in central Ca. is paid for and I owe nothing but utilities. Now I will work to get off the grid as much as possible and get me a garden growing and do some hydroponic fish growing. I want to try to get setup for what ever comes including an electrical magnetic pulse. Well Mark. That’s my story. I hope you and all decent Americans do well in the coming crisis. Which I think will be here in two years or less.
    Again. Good Luck

  9. Steve

    I would love to purchase your Silver Report but I am not a user of PayPal. Is there another form of payment that you support? At times I feel guilty reading your content when I’m unable to participate as a paid member.

    Thanks

    Tas

  10. OutLookingIn | March 20, 2016 at 11:21 am |

    Over? Or under valued?

    The Big “Tell”.

    A big regional precious metals dealer, buy offers are:
    For official 1 oz coins -.
    Gold $10.00 under spot price.
    Silver $2.65 over spot price.

    This “tells” me that gold (1 oz small lots) is over supplied, while silver is in short supply.

    • It does not make really sense, only western paper markets determine what the reality is.
      Chinese leaders like putin will be destroyed once again, but the west who holds what is important in ultimate capitalism systeme ie technology and banking power.
      Chinese bluff has been called for a while when a few years ago, they refused to take leadership while the west was crumbling.
      White dragons, if they really exist, are just another mammonic slaves and just bow in front of capitalist overlords.

  11. Silver Savior | March 21, 2016 at 12:12 am |

    In your opinions are things like kookaburras and maple leafs as liquid as Eagles. I love Eagles but they are kind of boring. Thanks.

    • From a metals dealer I know well….

      No, other governments’ coins are not as liquid in the U.S. as the ASE’s. But it is all liquid. Just a matter of getting $1 or so more for ASE’s over Maples, etc.

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