Record September Gold Eagle Sales… A Big Price Move Coming?

Something is brewing in the gold market as U.S. Gold Eagle sales hit a record this month.  This is a very interesting trend change as sales of Gold Eagles were sluggish for most of the year.

Matter-a-fact, Gold Eagle sales in September are the second highest for the year.  If we look at the chart below, investors purchased 55,500 oz of Gold Eagles, more than double August sales of 25,000 oz.  January usually holds the single highest sales month of the year due to high demand for the newly released official gold coin.

Gold Eagle Sales Jan-Sep 2014

Not only are September Gold Eagle sales higher than June’s 48,500 (when the price of gold hit a low of $1,240), they are 4 times higher than sales during the same month last year.  Gold Eagle sales in September 2013 were a paltry 13,000 oz.

Furthermore, demand for Gold Eagles are even higher than July 2013 at 50,500 oz… when gold hit a low of $1,181.  There is a great deal of concern from many analysts that the broader stock markets are overdue for a correction… maybe even a crash.

If we do see a Crash in the broader stock markets beginning in October, investors fleeing the indices may start moving back in the precious metals.  And why not?  Precious metal sentiment is at record lows, while the stock markets are seeing signs of total EUPHORIA.

Not only have Gold Eagle sales picked up in September, so have Silver Eagles.  The U.S. Mint just updated their figures for the month and Silver Eagles sales reached 3,375,000 in September.  This is the highest monthly sales figure going back until May.

Silver Eagle Sales

May = 3,988,500

June = 1,975,000

July = 2,007,500

Sept = 3,375,000

If Gold and Silver Eagle sales are higher this month, I would imagine sales of other official coins are up considerably as well.  It will be interesting to see how the rest of the year unfolds as the margin leverage in the NYSE is at all time HIGHS:

NYSE-margin-debt-SPX-since-1995

This chart shows a BIG ACCIDENT, just waiting to happen.  Many investors believe the precious metals will head lower along with the broader stock markets, but I actually believe the opposite will occur as gold and silver decouple from the indices and shoot up much higher.

NOTE:  I will be publishing the Q2 2014 Primary Silver Miners estimated break-even results shortly.  I also compare Q2 2014 results to Q3 2012… what a change two years can make.

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40 Comments on "Record September Gold Eagle Sales… A Big Price Move Coming?"

  1. Cheap prices bring out the buyers… just ask the Chinese.

  2. I was looking for anyone who has read the CPM 2014 silver yearbook which is currently priced at $150. What would you be able to glean from this book to justify the cost? I see where I could purchase a 2013 CPM silver yearbook for about 1/6th the price. Does anyone see any value in reading that book?

  3. Thanks for that useful information Steve, I can’t await to read the Q2 numbers on the Silver Miners, this is information I would hardly find out my self. I guess the losses of the Miners must be quite high with Silver so incredibly cheap.

  4. Steve,

    I don’t see any significance here, the prices dropped so the demand went up.

    • Walter,

      The paper gold and silver market are manipulated to a such a level, most people would not believe. You don’t see the significance, because you don’t see what’s going on behind the scenes… which a great deal more than just gold and silver.

      steve

      • Okay, so what’s the number one factor going on behind the scenes that has a highest potential for imminent change in precious metals?

        • The number one factor BY FAR in the spot price on PM’s is manipulation. I recommend subscribing to this email and seeing day after day the mechanics of the manipulation. A lot of good articles too.

          http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd

          Really dollar strength, oil prices, etc., etc., doesn’t matter right now…but the manipulation attacks are often times to make it look that way.

          • People need to understand that right now the ONLY factor in U.S. gold and silver prices is the manipulation game.

            To assume otherwise one has to assume free markets are at work, and there are no free markets in the U.S. or most of the world for that matter.

            And since these PM’s are direct competition for fiat currency and all it’s products, bi-products, and derivatives, PM’s must be manipulated to keep the fiat scheme going.

            They do not care if PM prices are placed so low all North American mines shut down. They don’t care about silver becoming so scarce it chokes industry. The only reason they would care about how much is available would be if it interrupts their market where paper shares of PM’s are traded, but they don’t even have enough physical for their fractional reserve ponzi games.

            And the big players on the Comex that are eligible to take physical delivery? Why would they insist on delivery if it crashes the game they play. Of if the fed threatens them if they do insist on a “game over” delivery amount?

          • lastmanstanding | September 30, 2014 at 7:50 pm |

            David, the mines are probably being subsidized just like the farming and oil industry.

          • Manipulation does not signal any imminent change in the precious metals which was the key word in my question. Okay its manipulated sure, but how long can they keep this game going?

  5. Herman the German | September 30, 2014 at 12:58 am | Reply

    Steve,

    Do you know http://www.timingcharts.com?

    This is to my knowledge the best Website providing COT-data for free.

    COT-indicators suggestive that gold and silber are at a turning point to move up anytime soon
    which is strongly supported by the turn of a weaker Dollar-Index.

    The only negative is crude oil, where I see the potential for weaker prices which is bad for gold and silber because more disinflation risks…The BIG question is for how long???

    Thanks a lot for all your hard work and information and kind greetings from Germany

  6. A big move yes : a gold/silver crash. Period…

  7. Wow what a Performance.Is ther a quicker way to burn your Money.

  8. Herman the German | September 30, 2014 at 6:48 am | Reply

    @RD, Markus and silverfreaky

    You guys reprent exactly the negative sentiment, which is SUPER STRONG for PM.

    The drop today is simply because Dollar Inder again up.

    Euro dropped 1 % today.

    I highly recommend that you take time and check the COT-Data.

    Make your analysis and buy some more (Cost average effect).

    • The dollar chart is actually beginning to look parabolic. Nearly everybody is bearish on gold and silver right now which is certainly a positive indicator from a contrarian point of view. I’m seeing articles calling for $12-$15 silver by the end of this year. Things are certainly starting to get very interesting in the PM world.

    • Chinese are in vacation for one week so that means PM smashdown. Period.

    • We represent realism. Everyone who denies that the price is dropping, and will probably continue to drop for a while, is a fool, and will lose money.

      I personally hold a large part of my wealth in physical silver, and clearly regard this as a buying point. But just don’t blow all your dry powder yet, it might still go lower.

      Eventually this has to stop of course. But take into account that uranium miners have been losing money for years, and they are still in operation. Same can happen with gold and silver. We absolutely have no guarantee that prices will go up this year, or the next year.

  9. Herman the German | September 30, 2014 at 7:01 am | Reply

    This is from Bill Holter copier from Harvey Organ’s post:

    NEVER LOOSE SIGHT OF THIS FACT!!!

    “How much gold is really out there? …Not enough!

    How much gold is really out there? This is a good question and rather than debate whether the “official” statistics are correct or not I will assume they are. I will make this assumption because even if they are true (which they are not), the financial ship is seriously out of balance and listing badly.
    The official total number on a global basis is estimated to be just over 170,000 tons. Of this figure, the tally comes to around 32,000 tons held by central banks. At the current price of gold, the total above ground supply comes to a little over $6 trillion and central banks hold a little over $1 trillion. If we break this down further and look at it from a U.S. centric standpoint, we claim to have 8,133 tons, let’s call this $300+ billion.
    The title’s question “how much gold is out there?” is misleading. I say “misleading” because there are two (as many as there are currencies) numbers, one by weight and the other by dollars (or whatever currency you use). Looking at this from a dollar standpoint is the easiest way to gain perspective. If total above ground supply comes to little more than $6 trillion, we can make some comparisons. For instance, the Fed’s balance sheet is over $4 trillion, or the U.S. economy is now about $17 trillion in size and our “funded” national debt is close to $18 trillion. I have seen studies where if you include “un” funded debt and promises, the U.S. is on the hook for $200 trillion in total but this number is too out of control to compare to our “gold held”.
    So the U.S. holds $300 billion in gold …or maybe not, but assuming this is the case, let’s put it in perspective. Our “family jewels” that amount to $300 billion is about 1/15th of the $4+ trillion Fed balance sheet. If we compare our gold hoard to the economy in total we come to a number just under 1/60th. More importantly, if we compare gold held to our national debt we also get a number of 1/60th. If we compared the amount of U.S. gold to our total of funded and unfunded obligations we get a really stupid number of close to 700. In other words, we “owe” almost 700 times as much “money” as we have gold.
    In my opinion, the most shocking comparison of “gold to our obligations” is when you look at the amount of gold we hold versus the amount of interest we pay each year. Last year we paid $415 billion worth of interest. This number is interesting because it is actually less than we paid out in 2008 when our debt was $7 trillion lower than it is now. Because interest rates have been forced down we are actually paying less interest today than were 6 years ago even though total debt has grown by 80%. This just goes to show one of the “why’s” interest rates have been crushed…so Uncle Sam can afford to pay his interest …but I digress.
    So, we are now paying more in interest each and every year than the sum total of ALL the gold that we claim to hold. Do you see a problem with this? Yes I know, some will say “it doesn’t matter and is meaningless”. Well, maybe it is and maybe it isn’t. Remember, interest paid today is far less than it would be under a “normalized” interest rate scenario. Said another way, under a normalized interest rate, the U.S. would be paying $800 billion per year just alone in interest. In case you missed it or scanned over it, the important phrase in the previous sentence is “PER YEAR” with an exclamation point!!!
    Getting back to my original thought and title, “how much gold is really out there?” …the answer is “not enough”. I only made comparisons to the U.S. and I did this because we are the ones who issue the world’s “reserve currency” and who’s debt is considered “risk free”. After seeing the above numbers, you now might understand “why” the U.S. went off the gold standard and defaulted to foreigners …we were running out of gold (after having 20,000 tons at one point) and simply didn’t have enough to continue making deliveries.
    It is a funny thing though, this concept of “not enough” gold. In today’s financial world and numbers …there really isn’t enough. There’s not enough to back currency with. There’s surely not enough to cover or back debt with. Heck, there’s not even enough for the U.S. to pay their interest FOR ONE YEAR! Ah, but dear reader, you are far smarter than this and are already calling bullshit on me aren’t you? There is not enough gold “at current prices” to cover anything. The total amount of gold “at current prices” won’t cover most country’s currencies, debt or even interest payments. There is either not enough gold …or it is not priced properly to do its job? Which is it?
    This is why I have written multiple times about the system going through a “re set”. Either gold prices need to be marked up or paper prices marked down (the same thing) in order for there to be “enough gold” to act as a foundation with any sort of thickness or stability. This I guess you could say is one of the laws of nature. A markup in gold will either be done by man in order to support his edifice of debt …or by Mother Nature where man’s paper edifice collapses to a point where “there is enough gold” at whatever “price” it happens to be at the time.
    This is not original thought or even close to rocket science. This has happened many times before all throughout history. The only differences between “then and now” is that this time around even (and especially) the reserve currency itself is fake, fiat and Ponzified as opposed to periphery currencies. In the old days, the peripheries were the fakes, now even the reserve currency is fake. The problem now is the issuer of the reserve currency is broke and paying out more in interest in one year than was saved in gold over 238 years! I will leave you with a thought, what if the U.S. really has dishoarded their gold in an effort to suppress the price? What if the crazy comparisons I did for you above are really just a rosy scenario and “rosy” by a factor of 10? Or by 100? Or if ALL of the gold has been dishoarded? Then what price in dollars should gold be? Regards, Bill Holter”

    • All that stuff is true but long term view. in the meantime we should be 30% lower within a few weeks…

      • Herman the German | September 30, 2014 at 9:28 am | Reply

        Not so sure about that.

        Again a rebound in the USD-Index IMO is imminent.
        But it is all about politics right now.

        The QE ball is right now on the EZB side. Let’s see what Mr. Draghi comes up with on Thursday.

        Also the US-indicators of the economy need to be watched closely.

        I believe there will not interest rate hike from the FED due to weaker economy and deflation :-):-):-)

        That and the chances of QE4 next year 1-2nd qtr will BOOST GOLD AND SILVER!

  10. How often I heared this Story.We are in a Deflation.Silver ist increasing when the Inflation goes up.
    I don’t see that.

    Silver is in Compedition with other asssets.And These assets runs better in Deflation.
    So before Inflation is not goeing up, I expect nothing.

    The number on selled coins is for shure no indice where the silver price is going.

  11. Herman,

    I agree with you on sentiment. What is your experience currently with Germans’ attitude towards precious metals? I have read Germans love silver. Are premiums high in your local coin shops? Is the general public buying, as they are more sensitive due to a history of hyperinflation? In the midwest, only well-read people are stacking, the masses are oblivious, for the time being. Was sagen Sie, aus dem Augen, aus den Sinn? Es war mir eine freude, mich mit ihnen zu unterhalten. Silber ist natuerlich miene lieblingsfach:) gruesse aus St. Paul, minnesota jeff

  12. Herman the German | September 30, 2014 at 9:04 am | Reply

    Hi Jeff,

    Thanks a lot for your kind words. Pleasure is on my site as well!
    If you believe it or not I used to live in Maple Grove for almost 5 years…The world is small
    Perhaps we even know us? 😉

    Anyway, in regards of jewelry, yes, Germans love silver. Gold is considered old fashioned.
    Only for wedding rings people by gold.

    Physical PM as an asset is ABSOLUTELY UNPOPULAR here in Germany.
    Only paper gold might be interesting for the typical investor as a hedge for the portfolio. But IMO only for a very small amount of the small investor.

    A good indication for silver coin prices you can see here:
    http://www.silber-corner.de
    Fairly good prices compared to other coin shops.

    But it is more expensive to buy over here i.e. right now:.
    American Eagle 1 Oz 19,66 USD vs 17,70 Euro
    Canadian Maple Leaf 1 Oz 19,23 USD vs 16,30 Euro
    FX Rate 1 Euro = 1, 265 USD

  13. A Consolidation in a sidewardsrange and always lower lows.This is the most worst Szenario.

    In Germany nobody have PM.I didn’t know anybody.They did not wrong when you think about the past.

  14. Herman,

    Gluecklicherweise, You are not paying much more for Silver. Premiums on 1 once rounds over comex spot is about $2 locally. Nicht so schlimm. Wie Schade, das die Deutschen, kauft nicht einige Silber. Danke schoen, fuer das Informationen….jeff

  15. Silverfreaky,

    Yes, the Germans citizenry were caught off-guard by the hyperinflation in the ’20s. It was not their fault. I hope that the German public does not suffer due to inflation in future, as i think the american public will suffer the same fate of hyperinflation. We are all in this together now, maybe Merkel will pivot east and protect german workers from westernfinancial problems

  16. Merkel is our Problem.The € for such different Counties(i mean the economical power) won’t work.

    Whether we make a Transfer Union from north to south and get bankrott one day, or we leave the €.
    Expensive are both cases.
    For the southern countries is the currency to strong.They cannot sell at the worldmarkets.

    In the Moment the Inflation is low.But the unemployment rate in the south of europe is growing and the economy is very bad.

  17. Well silver is taking it on the chin again today; down about 2% and selling off quite a bit more than gold in the face of the “stronger dollar.” I listened to an interview with Eric Sprott yesterday where he mentioned that currently silver is the most oversold it has ever been! This is quite surprising considering that most experts were expecting a bounce in September as it is typically the strongest month of the year for precious metals. Add to that point that the media continues to tout this “low inflation, economic recovery” which at least in theory should only increase silver demand since it is so widely used as an industrial commodity. So what’s wrong with this picture?

    In any case I am selfishly enjoying these artificially low prices. While prices probably have not yet bottomed if you’re a long term “stacker” this is an excellent time to be adding to your stack.

  18. Herman the German | September 30, 2014 at 9:48 am | Reply

    GOLD / SILVER RATIO @ 71 RIGHT NOW!!!!

  19. Silverfreaky,

    Could i learn more about the German situation thru my private email? Wenn du willst, schicken Sie mir ein mail. Ich spreche ein bischen Deutsch, und finde ihre Meinung interessantes. Ich bin auto Mechaniker, und mein Hobby ist Silber. Automedicnorth@yahoo.com. Bis dann, jeff

  20. Yeah, but where is the bottom?

  21. Herman the German | September 30, 2014 at 10:54 am | Reply

    Crude oil drops sharply as well today.
    Good news is, it is turning so the bottom of 90 USD holds so far.

    Stay strong guys! Pull back is close!

  22. Herman the German | September 30, 2014 at 12:08 pm | Reply

    ACHTUNG!

    THIS IS ANOTHER GREAT INDICATOR!

    THE CHINESE REMNIMBI LOST ONLY HALF OF WHAT MOST OTHER CURRENCIES LOST AGAINST THE USD.
    ONE WONDERS WHY….GOLD BECOMES CHEAPER AND CHEAPER FOR THE CHINESE PEOPLE!

    IN EURO THE PRICE FOR GOLD IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME!

  23. Time to get your book wrote, Rocky since there’s already now some out there on the theme:

    THE MISUNDERSTOOD CRISIS
    http://goldswitzerland.com/the-financial-crisis-is-mainly-an-energy-problem/

    LS: But it is very profitable to develop fracking in the US?

    MvM: Well, this is an interesting point of view that you have there because we did calculations on the economics of the companies involved in oil fracking and we came to the conclusion that most of these companies are not making very much money over the longer-term as far as we have been able to discern from the financial reports being published. In fact, we would think that given the decline rates in these oil wells the capital expenditure is becoming more or less a sort of operational expenditure and then oil becomes very expensive to calculate on that basis. So, to me this is probably the most expensive oil in the market.

    LS: Yes, however isn’t the current price of oil and the development of fracking due to high prices a replay of what we saw in the aftermath of the oil shocks in 1973/74 and 1979 related to the oil developments in Alaska and in the North Sea?

    MvM: No, I wouldn’t name it like that because the fracking is more like a production type process. So you have to do it continuously. If you stop the capital expenditure or basically developing the new wells then your production profile falls back very quickly – and this was not the case in either Alaska or the North Sea. So all this money had been spent and has been spent in these two areas, but the production that came from it has lasted a very long time. So it’s not directly comparable.

  24. Silver just roaring along!!!

    Back to prices 7 years ago!!!

    What a great investment!!!

    BWWWWWAAAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

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