(By Chris Hamilton)
Every month the Bureau of Labor Statistics comes out with it’s employment report for the United States. Last week I wrote a short report detailing the jobs situation. Still, most folks take a single data point, the 5.5% unemployment rate and presume the US labor market has made a full recovery since the ’08-’09 recession. However, determining the status of the labor market and economy deserves a little longer term view and better parsing to fairly determine which way we are headed.
From 2007 to 2015, Some quick take-a-ways…
- Total Population among the 25-54 year old American core fell 700k while 25-54 year olds with full-time jobs fell even faster, by 3.5 million.
- Total Population among 16-24 year olds increased by about 1 million, however, full-time jobs among this segment fell by 1.7 million despite the larger population.
- Although the US lost over a half million full-time jobs since 2007 despite the 19 million in total population growth, baby boomers generally maintained their full-time jobs as they moved into the 55+ and 65+ segments. So, on a net basis, they were the only age segment to pick up full-time jobs (and 90% of population growth), adding 4.7 million full-time jobs and 17 million in total population.
- However, the 55+ segment collectively don’t have adequate cash set aside to retire…so they keep on working and won’t relinquish their positions. Since the US isn’t creating adequate job growth and the old continue to work (primarily to maintain benefits as the old run headlong into the broken US healthcare system)…this means the young college graduates (with record student loan debt) have no place to go to begin establishing careers. The young only hope to service their debt (and pay their cell phone bills) at Starbucks, the Gap, etc.. The college grads are taking the jobs that would have previously gone to non-college grads…and group after group are pushing down opportunities for the next group.
- Population “growth” taking place in the US is not due to a rising birth rate or more children…it is simply a continued low birth rate boosted by a “death-dearth” among the older generations. The old are living longer and making the US population appear larger than what will sustainably be maintained. As the massive baby boom generation ultimately passes on over the next two decades coupled with continued low job creation enticing fewer immigrants, the US will almost surely go through a decade or two of declining population. Read that sentence again if you are a home builder, home owner, lender for those pursuits…a factory owner, business owner, etc. America’s population will almost surely shrink, massive debt loads will be entirely unserviceable, leverage will unwind, and deflationary price spirals would be inevitable…all but for the central banks attempts to print massive quantities of money to buy (retire) assets to effectively rig everything and artificially goose asset prices… enriching the older asset owning population at the expense of the younger, indebted, labor deprived, non-asset owners. Otherwise, the largest banks (represented by their ownership of the privately held Federal Reserve) would have massive losses on the bulk of real estate related assets.
Quick Period Comparisons:
Let’s begin with side by side 15 year comparisons of US population and jobs growth, broken down by age segments.
Below, note the population growth since 2000 is not because of rising birth rates…the population growth is driven by 55+ year olds living much longer than any previous period. So the US population growth is all about the baby boom “pig through the python”.
The 55+ segment represents 74% of all population growth since ’00.
And below a glance at employment growth over the same periods…all net full-time job gains have been in the 55+ population segment. For the 25-54 year old segment responsible for family formation, home purchases, retirement savings, and funding their children’s education, etc….the falling numbers of full-time jobs does not bode well. For with a shrinking working class with even faster shrinking numbers of jobs…who (but central banks) will buy all the older generations assets now that their time to sell has come?
Narrowing in on 2000 ’til present below, the period is split into even comparative halves. From ’07 to present, nearly 90% of total population growth is in the 55+ segment.
Below, the 25-54 year old working core of America has been decimated since the turn of the century and even worse since ’07. Jobs, particularly full-time jobs, have collapsed much faster than the declining population of this segment. Again, the 55+ segment is maintaining its jobs and effectively starving the generations behind them…ensuring these subsequent generations will not be capable of buying the boomers assets or paying the taxes to fund the massively under-funded boomer liabilities.
Lastly, I highlight the impact of the boomer population departing the 25-54 working age segment of the US economy and the governmental response.
(Population Source; OECD, Main Economic Indicators; Federal Debt Source, Dept. of Treasury)
What I show is a multivariate problem including (but not limited to) demographically shifting jobs but also a national (and global) economy that, thanks to a multitude of productivity hiking innovations, needs an ever lower ratio of workers but also an ever higher ratio of consumers?!? But obviously, how those without good jobs or jobs at all and without savings can be consumers is the question of our time. The governmental and central banks have a singular response…print money.
I don’t show this data to say we are doomed or point fingers at different groups. Instead, I show the data to elevate where the problems exist and hope a constructive discussion can be had with better info than the single number highlighted as the BLS consensus “full employment recovery” meme. Solutions do exist to this problem…but the problem must be made clear in order to begin the likely long and likely hard path to resolution.
This article was written by Chris Hamilton of Econimica.blogspot.com.
Please check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report. You can also follow us at Twitter, Facebook and Youtube below: