BANKING CARTELS’ REAL ENEMY: Physical Silver Investment Demand

While gold is a main focus of the Central Bank market rigging apparatus, physical silver investment demand is their real enemy.  The reason is simple.  Central Banks have gold in their vaults to dump on the market (or to lease) to control the price, but they have very little if any silver for this purpose.

We must remember, Gold and Silver go hand in hand.  If one is controlled, so must the other.  If the price of silver got out of hand and skyrocketed higher, for whatever reason, it would impact the price of gold as well.

Which is why we continue to read and hear about “Industrial silver demand” from the typical banks and top industry sources.  I have stated several times, industrial silver demand is a NON ISSUE.  It’s a RED HERRING.  It’s a DEAD END.  However, this doesn’t stop these banks and official sources from continuing to put out reports on future industrial demand as an indicator of price going forward.

Now, I did see one report on silver investment demand by our very own Silver Prophet, Jeff Christian and the CPM Group last year.  CPM Group put out a nice 50 page report on silver investment demand for the Silver Institute stating the following:

The report, entitled “Silver Investment Demand,” suggests that investors may accumulate as much as one billion additional ounces of silver in various investment instruments over the next decade. This is on top of the more than 860 million ounces of silver purchased as an investment since 2006.

I have to give the CPM Group credit for finally putting out a report on silver investment demand, but their figures are a TAD BIT LOW.  According to Thomson Reuters GFMS 2014 Silver Interim Report, total silver bar and coin demand since 2006 came in at a whopping 1.3 billion ounces.  Seems as if the CPM Group somehow misplaced nearly 500 million ounces (Moz) of physical silver investment demand.

Furthermore, the CPM Group states that world silver investment demand may grow by an additional one billion ounces over the next decade.  Well, this is a shocking revelation as the world invested in 652 Moz of silver (physical bar-coin & ETFs) in just the last three years.

Now, unless the Fed and Central Bank’s monetary and debt problems are going to disappear into thin air over the next few years, I don’t see global silver investment demand declining all that much over the next decade.  On the other hand, I rather see a tremendous increase on the horizon as the Central Banks lose control over the biggest Ponzi Scheme in history.

Step Aside Industrial Fabrication, Physical Silver Investment Demand Is The New Trend

Investors, Hedge Funds or Sovereign Wealth Funds looking for strategic information on the silver market need to stop wasting their time with “Industrial Silver Demand.”  I just read the wonderful report by LBMA’s Philip Newman titled, “The Outlook For Silver Industrial Demand.

Here were the major points of the report:

Silver industrial demand has gone through a difficult period in recent years. The 2008 global recession and subsequent sluggish economic recovery have impacted end-use demand in a number of key industrial sectors. In addition, high and volatile silver prices have incentivised manufacturers to thrift on the use of silver in a range of applications. While the economic impact on industrial offtake is cyclical in nature, thrifting in practice is rarely reversed and effectively results in demand destruction.

In this article, however, we make the case for why silver industrial offtake appears to have turned the corner in 2013.

Basically, the report says the high silver price in 2011 resulted in the industry thrifting of silver — using less metal.  However, the report stated that “industrial offtake appears to have turned the corner in 2013.”

Well, if we go by the data put out by the Thomson Reuters GFMS 2014 Silver Interim Report, industrial silver fabrication fell from 580 Moz in 2013 to 577 Moz in 2014.  I don’t see a turnaround here.

Furthermore, there still seems to be a lot of HYPE about Solar PV silver demand to go banana’s in the future.  Again, this is another DEAD END.  Here is a chart on photovoltaic silver demand from the GFMS 2014 Silver Market Report:

Photovoltiac Silver Demand 2014F GFMS

While Solar PV silver demand may increase a bit going forward due to falling Chinese solar panel inventories, I don’t see this as much of a factor in determining the price of silver going forward.

So, what do I believe will impact the price of silver over the next several years and decade?  Physical silver investment demand.  If we look at the chart below, we can see two significant trends taking place:

Silver Bar & Coin Invesment vs Industiral Applications #1

You will notice that industrial silver fabrication continues to fall (shown in these three-year time periods), while physical silver investment demand doubled since the 2006-2008 period.  From 2006-2008, total world physical silver investment demand was only 14% of industrial fabrication, but increased significantly to 33% in the 2012-2014 time period.

This chart should provide investors and fund managers who control more money than they have sense, that PHYSICAL SILVER INVESTMENT DEMAND is the key in determining price in the future, not industrial fabrication.  In addition, GLOBAL PEAK OIL will also be a factor that will destroy any attempt by the industry to grow its silver fabrication demand as World GDP will turn south heading into the toilet.

Regrettably, most large investors and Hedge Funds will be the last to realize the ramifications of peak oil as they continue to acquire worthless assets such as Real Estate.  Real Estate will become one of the WORST physical assets to own in a peak oil environment.

The Central Bankers cannot rig the price of gold without controlling the silver market.  This is why we see pathetic attempts by member banks to downplay the value of gold and silver.  SocGen just put out this lovely article titled, “SocGen’s ultra bearish gold and silver outlook” stating:

They thus expected the bear market in gold to continue further and saw the price as falling to average only $925 an ounce between 2016 and 2019.

The report suggested that the U.S. Fed would raise interest rates by 25 basis points as early as June, and then sees it raising rates more aggressively in 2016 and peaking at a 4% rate by 2017, with the gold price continuing to fall as interest rates rise.

The SocGen analysts give silver pretty short shrift too. The analysts see the silver price trending downwards to around $14/ounce by the end of the current year and with the metal price slipping further, down to around $13 by 2019

What a complete surprise.  A Bank that makes profits by selling worthless derivatives and other assorted paper garbage (as well assists in the propping up of the French Govt), believes gold will reach $925 and silver $13 by 2019.  This has to be some of the finest PROPAGANDA by an institution that is by all measure, BANKRUPT…LOL.

The Fed and Western Central Banks are in serious trouble.  The only thing holding up their entire Fiat Paper Ponzi Scheme is FAITH that their citizens will continue to believe that PAPER or DIGITS are wealth.  Once the global peak of unconventional oil production occurs (circa 2015/2016), their official policy of printing money and increasing debt will no longer work.

Thus, investors who have their HEADS SCREWED ON CORRECTLY, will get out of paper and into physical assets such as gold and silver before the GREAT FINANCIAL ENEMA takes place.

Physical silver bar and coin investment is the biggest threat to Central Bank intervention, because they have very little if any physical silver in their vaults to throw on the market to suppress price.

The only alternatives they have are:

1) Instruct their member banks to naked short the silver market with unlimited paper contracts.

2) Motivate banks and official institutions to provide bearish forecasts for gold and silver.

3) Hope and pray the 98% invested in the largest Ponzi Scheme in history don’t wake up anytime soon.

While these fine tactics are currently working, COMMON SENSE and LOGIC will finally return back to the fundamentals of investing.  This should do wonders for silver market dynamics.  I would imagine once this occurs total demand for physical silver investment will easily surpass industrial fabrication.

Unfortunately, when the world wakes up to this realization, finding available silver at a reasonable price may become simply impossible.

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57 Comments on "BANKING CARTELS’ REAL ENEMY: Physical Silver Investment Demand"

  1. OutLookingIn | March 30, 2015 at 12:18 pm |

    The WGC, GFMS, the CPM Group and the Silver Institute are one and all in bed with TPTB and anything they publish should be read for entertainment purposes only!

    The physical ownership and personal control of ownership security, is the ONLY solid fact. All the rest is nothing more than noise. Much too late now for the corrupt system to right itself. It will only become more corrosively corrupt, as the rot spreads and the entire fiat ponzi edifice will eventually collapse.

    • QueenOfEurope | March 30, 2015 at 5:22 pm |

      +1

    • OutLookingin,

      While it’s true that the GFMS & the CPM Group are apart of the SYSTEM, some of the data is fairly accurate. Of course, some of the information may be biased or incomplete, but I wouldn’t say it was just for entertainment purposes. Maybe the CPM Group, but GFMS actually does a pretty good data reporting.

      I have checked. A lot of their official coin demand and mine supply figures are the same as reported by the Official Mints and Government agencies.

      steve

  2. There is no reason to invest in silver. Most the silver that has been mined has been used up in manufacturing computers, TV’s, radios, cell phones etc…on and on.

    There isn’t going to be much left, if not completely depleted.

    The value of investment should be guns, ammo, food, shelter, medical supplies, and transportation.

    The Banking Cartels are not afraid. In fact quite the opposite. They are in full charge and have full control.

    • Ranger,

      The banks are in FULL CONTROL…LOL. Nice for you to offer us some COMEDIC RELIEF. Just to fill you in on a little TIDBIT, there are over 24 billion ounces of silver jewelry owned by citizens of the world. While it’s wise to own guns, ammo, food and what not, I hope you have thought about what you are going to trade if you RUN OUT OF BULLETS or FOOD.

      LOL… Steve

    • Ranger,

      The first part of your post concluding “there is no reason to invest in silver” are solid reasons TO BE investing in silver.

      “Most the silver that has been mined has been used up in manufacturing computers, TV’s, radios, cell phones etc…on and on”.

      Silver is used in making radios, cell phones, computers, TV’s, etc., and they can’t be made without silver so if: “There isn’t going to be much left, if not completely depleted.”

      Then what IS in investor’s hands will be very valuable indeed. Thousands of industrial uses, and pathogenic bacteria can’t be controlled anymore in some if not most hospitals without silver disinfecting solutions. A retired surgeon on the medical faculty of a large university told me this about the local [huge] hospital.

      When silver gets in short supply industry will have to get it directly or indirectly. That will also keep price up.

      TPTB are trying to discourage investors out of silver. They’ve done a pretty good job. Unfortunately they can’t control the Indian, Chinese, and other Asian demand. In time if zero billionaires buy in the West, Asian demand alone will create the profound shortages at these prices.

      Oligarch individuals in the banking cartels are buying gold & other tangible assets, beefing up their home security, and buying land [and landing strips] in remote locations like New Zealand. Most know this party will be running into a curfew.

    • “There isn’t going to be much left, if not completely depleted”
      erm… what is it about the property of scarcity that you dont get in terms of the supply/demand effect on price?

      • It had to have been pure sarcasm. Although there are lurkers to some of these boards who think PM investors where tinfoil hats, when you read what they write, they are the ones who appear completely wrapped in tin foil – head to toe.

  3. Is all real estate doomed in a peak oil world? Or is it just the real estate dependent on cheap oil?

    • Resilientman.com,

      That is actually a good question. I would imagine a certain percentage of Real Estate will hold up better than most. This would probably be downtown real estate is small towns and farming communities. Also, I believe modestly sized homes on land large enough to grow crops may also hold up nicely.

      Unfortunately, the majority of Real Estate in large cities and suburbs may be the BIGGEST LOSERS of them all.

      steve

      • Although your main focus is peak oil and silver, an article on why and what real estate will preform poorly may be of interest to many. I for one have my eye on real estate AFTER the collapse and silvers revaluation. Perhaps you can recommend some sites or resources on the matter.

  4. Hmm…peak oil…demand down, production up, storage capacity full, prices halved, and falling, because of all the above. The fact that production was ramped up, and continues to be ramped up, on a moments notice says that peak oil is not here for a while and it seems all ‘fundamental’ analysis thus far is wrong. When the facts don’t agree with reality it’s time to challenge what you think those facts are. Read Martin Armstrong for how the real world works, not how some people think it should work, why gold and silver etc. have been falling( nothing to do with manipulation) and why they will most likely continue lower…

    • Tall kiwi,

      Yeah, doesn’t seem logical. Peak Oil to occur right when we have lower demand and record supply. Well, you can thank the Fed & Central Banks money printing and zero interest rates for PROPPING UP the U.S. Shale Oil Industry.

      Martin doesn’t believe in Peak Oil or Climate change. He would be a perfect guest on George Norry’s COAST-TO-COAST AM. Once an excellent show hosted by Art Bell, is now a worthless mouth piece for MSM.

      Anyhow, I say wait around a few years and we will see just how CORRECT Martin was about Peak Oil.

      steve

      • Let’s not forget Iran isn’t really online yet, when the Nuke deal is done you’ll see more production and lower prices. The deflation also almost guarantee it.
        Although I don’t recall you calling Armstrong crazy or not knowing what he was talking about when he predicted the big drop in gold and silver long before it happened, the likes of Jim Sinclair, Miles Franklin bloggers etc. said exactly what you say now about oil…and are still wrong. I know who I’m listening to, as M.A. said “all these people insisting they’re right when the market is consistently proving them wrong..”
        The bottom line is who has been better off, those listening to Armstrong, Norcini or those listening to the gold and silver bugs, Sinclair, Morgan, Franklin etc.? Let’s face it there is no one out there with the experience and track record of Armstrong… By a long shot!

        • The lower prices you speak of are what will drive massive amounts of investment out of shale oil and the tar sands, burning enough investors there that they may never return again. The possibility of a continuing cycle of price spikes, followed by price crashes will keep the capital formation necessary for shale development permanently impaired. From here on in, the realization that shale was ALWAYS marginal will slowly creep into the public’s consciousness.

          • Yep, it’s happening now.

          • FYI Canada has OIL SANDS not Tar Sands.
            Now, the government in Alberta, where there are Oil Sands, has finally woken up and is talking about moving on from oil. Oil is being sold for a mere $33/barrel taking into account the differential.

        • The problem with Mr. Martin Armstrong is that he refuses under any circumstances to acknowledge that the precious metals as well as pretty much all other markets are completely and utterly rigged by the Central Banks. Why is that? I become very suspicious when self-appointed gurus like Armstrong deny this blatantly obvious fact regarding gold suppression, for which there is plenty of evidence, including statements by former Central bankers, US Treasury officials etc. Then Armstrong tries to pretend that the US Treasury/Federal Reserve has no motive in suppressing gold prices (the canary in the financial coalmine) when it is clearly in their interest to do this so that they can prop up their worthless unbacked US dollar paper ponzi scheme.

          • Armstrong has repeatedly said ALL markets are manipulated within the trend but not systemically, it would be impossible for one entity, or even several acting in unision, to influence prices systemically for any length of time. The gold promoters come up with this excuse because their forecasts are so wrong. As Armstrong and Norcini show there are many reasons why the prices of commodities go up and down, nothing to do with manipulation. If you’re only looking at things in a linearly fashion you could come to that conclusion but the world works on many levels, what happens in Japan, Europe etc. affect prices and markets in myriads of ways, often so complex a mere human could never comprehend…this Armstrongs computing model forecasts. As for central banks worrying about gold he’s right, they’re not, for the dollar is not related to gold, neither are shells, land and a myriad of other things that have been used for money, a medium of exchange, all that is needed is confidence! If you’re not sure whether your gold is pure or not, whether it has been filled with tungsten of some how adulterated the same applies, it will not be trusted. It’s CONFIDENCE that matters, nothing else. Let’s not forget he also says gold has a place and more importantly TIME in your portfolio. THe 100% allocation and hold for ever BS the gold promoters often spout is foolish and, as we have seen, dangerous to your wealth. Why do people still go with those who have been so wrong and reject those who have been so right? How many times has Sinclair, Morgan etc. called the bottom? They have no idea about what they say and benefit directly from their bullish stance on gold and silver. Don’t beleive these charlatans, intentional or however well meaning they may be, go with who is right.

          • Tall Kiwi,

            I read just about all of Martins work while he was in jail. However, something changed in his writing style after he got his GET OUT OF JAIL free card.

            Again, Martin doesn’t believe in Climate Change or Peak Oil. Which means he is also a CHARLATAN as well.

            steve

        • Tall Kiwi – what you and most people don’t understand is that those of us who convert their paper trash into real assets such as Gold and Silver, don’t do so because the Jim Sinclair’s of the world say that prices are going to the moon. Most of the Gold/Silver investors in the world understand that what we are seeing all around the world is simply insane. We have no more free markets, everything is rigged. The entire world is drowning in debt and only massive amounts of money printing is keeping things afloat. This won’t end well. The markets are up not due to the underlying fundamentals or a strong economic recovery (real earnings are on decline) but due to cheap money that has nowhere else to go. Traders like Norcini may do very well for themselves and their subscribers who like to gamble in this type of environment. I have no desire to do so and I consider my paper assets a temporary vehicle that I can convert into real, tangible assets whenever possible.
          People need to stop worrying about the price of Gold and Silver and instead need worry about what is really happening all around the world.
          If you really think that your paper investments, your digits on a computer screen are real wealth, you are in for a very rude awakening.

          • Tallkiwi

            You are writing like a mental slave of a guru. Look at societe generale gold prices forecasts and they have been also quite accurate, nothing exceptional here as for the last year mainly everybody has been bearish on gold even on gold web sites like goldseek.
            Moreover when i read marty (and he saved marriage after all !!!) I see only cryptic writings nothing precise.

          • Thank you..not sure that I could’ve said it better.

          • Well said AK. The problem is that we aeverage joe have no power and will not have never. Only an elite can switch another one.

            In the meantime, it is very tough to just not getting poorer as all paper assets including real estate and private equity have been exploded regarding wages, deposits and gold/silver.

            If that continues many years and/or increases some including myself will have a real problem…

          • Armstrong did not get a “Get out of jail free card” if so who from? He is one of the most out spoken critics of the establishment, banks, justice system, political system etc. and he has reason to be, he’s been there and done the time. To suggest he’s somehow complicit is absolute rubbish. Just because he doesn’t believe in global warming, as many prominent scientists don’t, You could also be considered a charlatan for believing it’s true! Besides climate changes, it’s what it does, the argument is what’s causing it and Armstrong notes that the earth has warmed many times before, long before we had industrialisation.
            AK, what you don’t realise Is that many people do read these blogs and take action. I doubt you came to the conclusion all by yourself that you should buy gold and silver. FYI I own gold and silver from way back and sold half at $1850. I’m now considering entering around the $1000 level where I’ll be able to get twice as much for my money rather than if I’d just held on to it. At the end of the day you have to ask whose analysis is correct? Wouldn’t you rather have more than less? And shouldn’t you be prepared that gold and silver will NOT perform as these guys say? That we could go to an electronic currency, as is happening all around the world as we speak and obviously govts. love.
            All I’m saying is keep an open mind, when things don’t add up, like oil and gold going down you MUST reevaluate your beleifs and find answers other than the lame excuse of manipulation. It is folks like RD following the gurus who are wrong who is the slave and is probably upside down in his metals holdings but praying for relief, unfortunately he can’t take advantage of this drop in prices because he held on believing that This was the bottom! He says he sees nothing precise in MAs writing, like perhaps when Sinclair or Morgan declares for the umpteenth time THIS is the bottom? MAs big picture is clear, it’s crash and burn UNLESS They can implement certain policies, he’s working on that now

  5. Anyone who states or believes:

    “The [U.S. led] Banking Cartels are not afraid. In fact quite the opposite. They are in full charge and have full control”.

    I invite you to read this one of many articles on the AIIB. This being a mainstream media source they don’t go into the implications, but many other articles do. Let’s just understate the implications by saying this is the opposite of U.S. led banking cartels [hegemony] being in full control.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102543220

    Many speculate on black swans; what they will be and when they will manifest. This is like dozens of buzzards riding thermals at the moment, but quite capable of landing.

  6. My idea of a black swan,so called,is that you or I will never see it coming ,or even speculate as to what it will look like,just ,BANG,and it’s here.World changes overnight.
    I’m glad you modified your comment about Real Estate Steve.House,outbuildings,land will never lose you value.
    Tall antipodeans can speculate all they like,but the PM insurance is in place.Better a year or more early than a day late,as they say.We can forget about prices now,It’s irrelevant once you know how much manipulation is being used to facilitate these banksters and their dot gov pals.

    • You said: “I’m glad you modified your comment about Real Estate Steve. House, outbuildings, land will never lose you value”.

      I say: They will (lose their value) when you can’t afford the price of the fuel it takes to get you there. Same thing for that 18 wheeler rolling into your local supermarket with “California produce” for that real time inventory delivery. All one needs to do is to just ask yourself, what happens when the price of fuel skyrockets (or more likely the value of the dollar plummets)?? Real estate and everything else that depends on LOW FUEL PRICES ceases to….hold their value (or maybe even exist) – house, outbuildings & land ESPECIALLY. Economics 101…

      • Your argument is based on the ‘petrolhead’ mentality.I already live ‘on site’,growing food,animal care,eggs,meat etc.I can walk to the village,I can cycle to the town,I can bus into the city.I can even hitch a donkey to a cart for bigger purchases.So house/outbuildings/land,validity stands.

        • lastmanstanding | March 31, 2015 at 7:16 am |

          Brother…you have planned well. I am attempting to do the same.

          • central banks don’t hold silver as part of their reserves. Silver is used in industry and very little of it is recycled. As an example an iPhone has .35 grams of silver. Just the iPhone has used approximately 29,750,000 ounces since 2007. Silver used in other industrial applications are almost never economically recoverable. When I try to wrap my mind around a metal that is the most conductive, most reflective, and has antibacterial properties. It’s used in cars, planes, trains, computers, hospital devices, medicines, solar panels, etc.. and it’s rare. How valuable is silver? I guess some of us will find out.

  7. SRSrocco – great points as always, although even with peak oil, I still think real estate is a wise diversification wise, although peak oil will definitely change the dynamic of what land is considered desirable/valuable.

    BUT WHAT ABOUT your buddy Ted Butler? He is still contending that a bulk of the silver being bought in the market is by everybody’s friend JP Morgan. On March 25, 2015 – “If I am correct in my speculation that JPMorgan has acquired 300 million ounces or so of physical silver over the past four years, this would confirm many of the points about gold and silver that I’ve made in the past.”

    300 million ounces held by a bank is quite ridiculous. Do you still disagree with Ted and believe retail demand is driving gold sales, or is JP Morgan positioning themselves to be sitting EXTREMELY pretty when peak oil and other events take place???

    How are Silver Eagles pacing in 2015 thus far vs 2014 and 2013 – haven’t seen an update from you in a while.

    Thanks!

    • I suspect JPM does have a lot of large silver bars; how many cases of ASE’s they might have is more questionable. Ted even states that figure he gave is his speculation.

      But by now they must know the true value and eventual value measured in fiat of silver. And having the physical allows them to buy short contracts without losing their ass if the price rigging on the COMEX rather suddenly ended.

    • 300 Moz is nothing for JP but still a big the sub 10 people involved with that position who will make a fortune in bonus if they are right at the right time.

  8. Max Meister | March 31, 2015 at 1:17 am |

    I don’t believe oil will be an issue within at least the next decade unless a major war would impede the exploration and transportation of it. We have more oil producing countries today than ever and the fall out of the frackers will not turn the world upside down. I believe that the rigging of both gold and silver will continue in an agressive manner. The key for higher prices lays in the east. The western cartell of PM riggers can be broken by China if thy wish but as long as thy accumulate gold thy are not going to end this game. As the world goes into a recession or even depression, industrial demand for silver will continue to decline, so will the supply as less base metals are mined. Investment demand from China and India could avoid the price of silver to go down the toilet but i don’t think that is enough to avoid further downward pressure. What could change the game is either a blackswan or an unexpected event like for instance China announcing its true gold holdings a gold backed RMB or alike. Nevertheless nobody knows when such event are going to take place and if they are going to unfold as expected.

    • Max,

      You stated, “I don’t believe oil will be an issue within at least the next decade unless a major war would impede the exploration and transportation of it.”

      I imagine you believe this due to your incomplete understanding of the Oil Market. Russia has already come out and stated that they are probably going to peak in production in 2015/2016. Russia drills 5-6,000 new wells a year just to keep production at that 10 million barrels per day (mbd) amount.

      Furthermore, a lot of the shale companies are going to see their RESERVES restated lower due to the low oil price. These companies get their financing based on their RESERVES. I imagine we are going to see BLOOD IN THE STREETS this summer when it comes to the Shale Oil & Gas Industry.

      I don’t think the typical JOE-BAG-OF-DONUTS has any idea just how bad the situation is in the Global Oil Market. The annual decline rate of the Worlds Oil Fields is north of 5%. If we apply simple math to 78 mbd of oil production, that’s nearly 4 mbd of global oil production lost every year.

      Shale oil annual decline rate is TEN TIMES that figure…LOL. The typical Shale oil field declines 50% per year.

      We are in serious trouble, and most people have NO FRICKEN CLUE.

      steve

    • silverfreaky | March 31, 2015 at 7:52 am |

      I think the same.The chinese has no interest to loose the USA as business partner.They hold a lot of bonds.
      The chinese gold is an injurance.They have no interest in higher prices.
      The whole world has no interest in higher prices.

      • Only if and when their Financial system implodes as it looks like a complete bubble aka usa in the 1925/1929 era…

  9. Real estate worries me too even though it has been a reliable investment for many decades. It is a mathematical requirement that total debt always expand in a fractional reserve banking system. The federal reserve made mortgage debt flow readily for years and real estate was used as a place to push more debt. We live in homes that on average are 40% large than in 1970. This is not because we are wealthier.

    More debt cannot be pushed into real estate without paying people to borrow. So real estate will be challenged as an investment.

    Mike

    • Mike,

      You are correct. Real Estate for the most part has been one of the most safest physical assets to own over the past 100 years. While we had ups and downs in the Real Estate Market, the values always seem to head higher.

      One PEAK OIL hits, the massive U.S. Economy will have to survive on less and less energy each year. Can you imagine trying to Run CHICAGO or DALLAS TX on 70% or half of the oil???

      Some believe RENEWABLES or FREE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY are going to be our Savior. This is a PIE IN THE SKY belief. Unfortunately, we have designed our system on Oil, Gas and Coal. Even if we wanted to transition to a renewable economy… we just don’t have the capital to do so.

      Americans have no clue what they are going to face in the future.

      steve

      • “Americans have no clue what they are going to face in the future”.

        They really don’t. For several reasons and causes. That could also be said for some other of the “fatter” countries as well; the ones living on debt & excessive consumption. It is easier to understand the difficult transition to, for one example, only being able to afford heating their home to 55 degrees or so in the winter.

        Unfortunately many poorer countries [somewhat funny to say since the U.S. is so insolvent] will also suffer more in a currency crisis.

      • This part scares me a lot frankly. Do you think we could buy some time by natural gas powered locomotives to bring vegetables from California to Dallas? Then using light Kubota tractors pulling trailers to move the vegetables to the suburbs and outlying communities?

        Your work is incredible-Thank You.

  10. Martin Armstrong is magnificent at attacking tptb and government fraud and corruption. He is our ally here. However his analysis cannot be correct on every issue.

    For example his denial of human effects on climate. It has been shown in countless experiments how changing one variable causes a chain reaction that permanently alters an ecosystem.

    Although he owns gold, he says gold is not in demand until confidence is lost in the dollar. Well how can he predict a U.S. bond collapse in 2015 without a concommitant drop in the dollar and rise in the price of gold?

    Manipulation of gold by the banking system has been proven beyond doubt; instead of refuting this evidence his argument is heavily based on attacking the gold promoters since they have been wrong on price direction during this manipulation.

    Just like all of you, Martin still has much to value in many of his arguments, but not all of them.

    P.S. He looks at the comex and says there is no demand for gold. Yet he is always telling us that money flows are global. So why doesn;t he ever mention that demand for gold in China and India are at historic levels? Not to mention the arab and muslim countries, most of southeast asia, most of asia, and many central banks, esp. Russia and China. Doesn’t this demand count for anything? Is the comex the only indication of demand?

    • martin Armstrong hates governments but he dismisses that any more powerful lobbies would be the real controler except maybe in the banking system.

      But he has acted in the past like all these crroked bankers and continue to do it on a daily basis : like fekete people…

    • Besides, it is comex principles who are fraudulent for lots of gold bugs but not for norcini Armstrong : why because they are neoliberals.
      For them a futures market which do not settle in the underlying commodities is not a problem if the buyer just change his mind and do not ask for gold deliveries.
      the problem is that it takes place onpenly in a regulated exchange and non OTC transactions and it impacts legitimate gold transfer.

      besides, for norcini and Armstrong the Financial system they have known for 3 décades will NEVER really change : they may be right. most gold bugs are making a bet on the opposite in the not so distant future like 5/10 years, they may be wrong… or not.

      • RD,

        Interesting article today by Norcini, http://www.kitco.com/ind/Norcini/2015-04-01-Gold-and-Misery-Strange-Bedfellows.html, where in part he says “Most of you know by now, that I regard gold as INSURANCE; nothing more and nothing less. It is simply another asset class. Sometimes it is in favor and does well; sometimes it is out of favor and does not do well.”

        I believe his take on PMs is a good one. The problem is how much insurance is enough? I know how much my car or house cost and what it would cost to replace them. I also know how much my investments are worth in todays dollars. BUT, how much gold/silver is enough to insure my family’s well being when the SHTF?

        No way to know a precise answer to that questions. So my approach is to buy as much as I can afford month in and month out for as long as you can buy them for their commiodity value at production (or very near) cost and not as the money they are to become.

        Buy for cash and stash

        SteveW

        ps to Steve to Max “most people have no Frackin clue”

        • SteveW,

          I had a exchange with Dan Norcini on his blog. I brought up the subject of oil and he doesn’t believe in PEAK OIL…LOL. So, Norcini is just like most of the other BLINDSIDED Precious Metal Analysts who do not understand what happens to $105 Trillion in Global Conventional Paper Assets when peak of Unconventional Oil Production hits in the next few years.

          Trading paper gold or whatever other garbage will become something “WE USED TO DO” ….LOL.

          steve

          • Steve,

            I am with Max on this one. While I am a firm believer in peak oil and the declining EROI, the coming train wreck will not be because of that but, in part, because of the oil glut due to deflation. Where it will have a tremendous effect will be on the flip side. When inflation finally gains traction and evolves into hyperinflation, it will be then the effects of peak oil and decling EROI will magnify the effects by an order of magnitude.

            All of the talking heads in Pms, Norcini, Avi Gilburt, Warren Bevan, Jay Taylor, Paul Nathan, Chuck Butler, et al. will continue to view and analyze the PM markets based on historical patterns and data. None of them has any understanding of the incredible importance of the real cost of energy. As a consequence they can never, ever be right in the long run. They will keep drinking the KoolAid until the pitcher explodes.

            Thanks for your persistence and insights.

            stevew

          • SteveW,

            Jean Laherrere published his peak of Bakken Oil production in the PeakOilBarrel.com. Take a look at this chart and see just where Bakken Oil Production will be in 10 years:



            Jean plots Bakken Oil Production based on Ultimate Reserves of 6.2 Gb with a peak at 2015/2016, will fall to only 200,000 barrels per day by 2025.
            The Eagle Ford will behave in the same fashion.

            We can just agree to disagree on the notion that “Nothing will happen with Peak Oil for at least a decade.” I say, lets see what happens by 2020.

            steve

        • SteveW,

          “I am with Max on this one. While I am a firm believer in peak oil and the declining EROI, the coming train wreck will not be because of that but, in part, because of the oil glut due to deflation.”

          The coming train wreck could come before peak oil/declining EROI is more evident. If it is related to the current oil glut that might relate to derivatives exposure and oil company financial problems. Not so much due to the glut itself but the price of oil.

  11. Dave the Stacker | March 31, 2015 at 3:56 pm |

    That does it! I am off to the kitchen to fold a pyramid shaped tin foil hat. Then I’m going sit on my safe which is now too small to hold all the monster boxes I own. Scoff if you will, but silver will still have value when those folks holding paper will be rolling huge spliffs with the paper to kill the pain of their total loss in in the investment game. Keep stacking all of you that know the real deal!

  12. Steve,
    Great article i completely agree but here what i think will happen:
    1-Physical demand will create the shortage
    2-Due to the shortage, industrial will really bid the price up like crazy cause they got to have the silver to stay in business

    It’s impossible to predict any price but one thing i’m sure, at some point the price will go up some violentely it will blow our mind !

  13. silverfreaky | April 2, 2015 at 10:35 am |

    In the moment i see only a shortage in the miner stock price and silver and gold.
    Why don’t you accept that we still are in a bear market?

    The output of the silver miners by the way increases.

    • The only thing i’m absolutely convinced is, the longer the metal’s prices stay this low, the more explosive the upside will be… so i really hope it stay there as long as possible so i can accumulate more of this beautiful metal 🙂

  14. GoldOrSilver | April 4, 2015 at 2:40 pm |

    I still dont know. I was reading an article by Koos Jansen who was revaluating the gold markets supply and demand, and he stated that there is an unlimited supply of gold from central banks.

    I dont see why this would be different for silver. It is a precious metal that many governments mint. I dont see why there isnt an unlimited supply of silver as well? And its speculated that JP Morgan has a stockpile of silver that is over 300 million ounces, and theyve been the one buying all the silver coins over the past three years. I mean, thats a lot of silver – above ground too. And people say JPM is one of the FEDs minions, so there is one massive supply of silver right there. This JPM horde is also what is capping silvers climb, although I wonder with the jobs report (i know is probably made up), which was SO BAD, what that means, as I would imagine further patience from the FED, or even more QE, which is Ag and Au bullish, but not with JPM doing this.

    Although silver eagle and maple leaf records keep getting shattered, but is this people buying, or central governments? I appreciate your dedication Steve to getting facts out there for people to read or at least question things.

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