The global meltdown will turn into an economic depression in which few are prepared. The mainstream financial media focuses on the highly inflated stock rally and safety in the bond market, while the underlying fundamentals of the economy continue to disintegrate. However, “Earnings Season” is getting ready to start… so watch for fireworks to begin shortly.
Even though the Fed and central banks can prop up the stock market and financial assets, they can’t stop the coming gauntlet of LOUSY EARNINGS DATA. How can the Dow Jones Index be trading at 24,000 while the main driver of the economy, “The Oil Industry,” is being destroyed in rapid order? With the U.S. oil price closing in the $12 range, negative oil prices are once again around the corner.
In my newest video, GLOBAL MELTDOWN: Major Impact On Silver Investment & Market, I discuss the deteriorating economic indicators and how they will be negative for silver supply and positive for silver investment.
In one of my last video updates, I forecasted that the global silver mine supply would decline between 100-150 Moz in 2020. Well, this looks like a more realistic forecast because both Peru and Mexico extended the lockdown of their economies:
With Mexico and Peru locked down for two months, upwards of 50 million oz of silver was lost. Furthermore, if we include the coming collapse in global base metal demand, we could easily see 100+ million oz of silver mine supply curtailed this year. In the video, I provide the most updated data on global silver supply as a by-product of base metal mining.
I believe global silver mine supply will be falling right at the very time we see RECORD PHYSICAL SILVER INVESTMENT demand.
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Thank you again for a great article/video.
Enjoy your insight! Thanks for your hard work!
“The global meltdown will turn into an economic depression in which few are prepared.”
I strongly agree. Even those of us who have TRIED to prepare for the coming worst times will still suffer too. I feel the sorriest for the people who are woefully and totally unprepared for what is coming. NONE of us will escape the nasties to come. Those who tried to prepare for the bad times coming did not expect a global pandemic. Yet it’s now on our doorstep and there is a new reality we must face, and it is not going to be pleasant.
“Even though the Fed and central banks can prop up the stock market and financial assets, they stop the coming gauntlet of LOUSY EARNINGS DATA. How can the Dow Jones Index be trading at 24,000 while the main driver of the economy, “The Oil Industry,” is being destroyed in rapid order?”
The insanity in the stock markets has restarted – fundamentals be damned! Same story but a much different day. The Fed and Central banks will not be able to “bail” us out of this situation, which promises to get MUCH worst. I find it difficult to believe that they don’t see the approaching train wreck. Some people on the sinking Titanic were dancing on her decks as they were sinking. I view the current stock markets much the same way, except the passengers on the Titanic, had to know the ship was sinking. I don’t think the investors in the stock markets have any clue as to how bad things really are or how bad things are going to get.
None of us are immune, but some of us already have a clue that really tough times are straight in front of us. I think that many are engaged in wishful thinking.
I like you, you’re a realist.
Thank you for your kind remark. I think of myself as pragmatic person – I hope for the best but plan for the worst.
Very good report. Silver supply will never catch up to current available levels again. It will continue to ‘Vanish’ as we see it doing now.
The best deal I see right now are 2020 1 oz silver Britannias going for about $20 on the bullion sites.
“The best deal I see right now are 2020 1 oz silver Britannias going for about $20 on the bullion sites.”
I recommend that you buy as many ounces of Silver that you can get for $20/oz. I expect Silver prices (including spot) to rise in the very near future. Supply is too limited and demand is only increasing. Good stacking!
Brant Lee: “Silver supply will never catch up to current available levels again.”
FOMO anyone?
But industrial demand will also fall more than 100 million ounces. Completely biased report…
DR,
Ah…Creepy, back again under a different screen name. Clever.
Yeah, I stated in previous articles and videos that Industrial demand has collapsed. However, due to what the Fed and central banks are doing, we are going to see MUCH MORE PHYSICAL SILVER DEMAND that will OFFSET the loss from Industrial, Jewelry and Silverware demand. Don’t forget Jewelry demand which was about 200 Moz in 2019.
But hey, DR… you are free to BUY all the PAPER FINANCIAL ASSETS to your heart’s desire.
BE MY GUEST… LOL.
steve
Herd behavior and bubbles can develop irrespective of fundamentals. Was there silver shortage between 2008 and 2012? In the same way DOW can reach 40000 iven if the economy is weak. There are no investment opprotunities nowadays. The yields are so low that the excessive amount of money has to be invested somewhere. The amount of investment accounts is growing quickly which indicates apetite for risk and gain.
“Was there silver shortage between 2008 and 2012?”
Was there a global pandemic (on top of everything else) at that time? A HUGE difference compared to today’s situation.
Switching a few character is a simple trick to fool stupid machines but not human brains !
The issue is the fall of demand of industrial (and jewellery) is a certainty while a huge rise of the monetary demand is still a possibility, thus the fall from around 16/18 to 14/16.
You may be right but we cannot know when it will take place, it could take years even at these levels and considering the gold/silver ratio looks quite favorable at these price levels.
That being said I still consider going all-in in silver still looks quite risky as big hands seems to consider gold as much more interesting.
Regarding paper assets, it seems central banks and major capitalists in the west and in the east (China, Japan,…) clearly prefer to jeopardize ultimately central bank credit (USD, euros, yen, yuan, swiss francs) than accepting nominal values fall of financial assets and even real estate.
Consequently new all time highs for stocks and bonds worldwide within 12 months is a very real possibility.
DR,
Yeah… maybe if you get your LUCKY RABBIT’S FOOT and rub it hard enough, you might get the DOW JONES INDEX to 30,000.
While the Fed and Central Banks can PUMP UP INFLATED VALUES even higher, only a FOOL would think this is a SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS MODEL. However, what the Fed & Central banks CAN’T DO is prop up LOUSY EARNINGS that are coming.
steve
It can be because I am not an english fluent person but you did not seem to understand well any kind shades. Who has said that such action would be “sustainable” or perpetual ? Certainly not me !
However, we know from the past that such phenomen can takes years if not decades to bear their fruits. UBER is still losing money from its inception and is still valued at USD 50 billion. We know that the die is casted but we cannot know when and how exactly it will materialize.
You are also dismissing further negative interest rates or emergink markets implosion which could so inflate a little further european and more especially USD assets like stocks (but not exclusively). Remember that in 2000, the PER of stocks where above 40 while a lot of them were losing money (NASDAQ).
This is far from a certainty and the current could be indeed just a dead cat bounce is a larger bear markets but the alternative scenario is also quite possible for a while (not forever !).
All the best anyway.
Negative interest rates are bad. Negative bond yields are worse. In addition to such troubles as stock market losses, asset depreciation, decreased precious metal supply, and the relentless EROI problem, I expect a bond/derivatives market collapse.
That will be catastrophic. Then watch the PM prices.
Unfortunately, it does not prevent silver to fall during nearly one decade now…
“we are going to see MUCH MORE PHYSICAL SILVER DEMAND that will OFFSET the loss from Industrial, Jewelry and Silverware demand.”
That is a colossal understatement. Anyone trying to buy physical PMs already knows this. Shopping around is all the proof needed. Supplies are very low and prices have yet to catch up (but are getting there). No doubt that investors are replacing (and even exceeding) industrial demand.
When a few investors catch on to what is going on with PMs, prices WILL make up the long underpricing of PMs.
Excellent report, as usual.
In my country, there is a definite awakening in the public as regards the significance of silver. I believe this will progress and culminate in panic buying in the not so distant future.
The premiums vary, they are at least 30 %, and can go up to 200+ % for small bars.
Is that in Turkey?
Exactly. This is a 83-million country where its citizens are estimated to hold 4000+ tons of gold (possibly more) in their private possession.
Silver is demanded and in various forms is available to buy through several channels -but it is getting more and more expensive every day. The paper price -just a fake figure that is the result of continual suppression by the usual criminals- is laughable here.
If 83 million people would buy only one ounce each, where would the price be?
Hi Steve,
Thx. for the frequent analyses and articles. I really appreciate it. I do look forward to new articles of yours. Have been stacking heaviliy for years here in Holland, till about 2 months ago. Supply fell off the cliff hard time. We have a few good bullion dealers and they are all sitting on air. you can get these fancy coins from series like donald duck ect for astronomical prices, but no 1oz coins to be found. I am always supprised to hear that people in the US can still buy coins or small bars. Thx again for the hard work you put into the research.
Here in the U.S. reasonably-priced Silver is almost impossible to find (1 oz. and smaller). Silver is rapidly becoming “unobtanium”. Some clowns will likely post that you could find 1,000 oz. bars for sale or even suggest that you could buy directly from a mine for close to spot. Please ignore them as they don’t know what they are talking about.
Try buying online (eBay included). Most sellers I know would ship to you (for an additional shipping charge). Buy Silver when and where you can. Supply is very limited and that (and prices) are going to get much worse!
Good luck with your stacking!
Just looked at an online dealer I use; 1 ounce generics, Britannia’s [delayed until May 19th] Maples, Kangaroos, and Eagles all available now.
“Maples, Kangaroos, and Eagles all available now.”
At what prices (and quantites)?
At $4+ for sovereign coins to $7+ on Eagles over the BS “spot” price…and mint cases available.
Thank you. I appreciate your response.
Thx for reply’s. But could you maybe give me some links to reliable dealers who would ship to europe. I have 3 dealers here in Holland i buy from normally and both are very dry on coins. Of course maples and eagles would first be dispersed to dealers in the states and Canada. We have also had some bad luck that Switserland refiners closed down which has definatly hit the market. The germans where hoarding quite heavily till end of last year as well, but from jan 1st the government lowered the amount they could buy cash and annonamis. All in all, it is really strange times. More difficult protecting your hard earned scheiss paper, whats left after tax and all the inflation we are having. Stay well there across the atlantic. Greetings from Holland.
@Tony,
You would need to check with each seller (in advance of ordering) to see if they would ship to Holland and what the estimated shipping costs would be. I think most sellers would be willing to ship PMs to you if you asked. I hesitate to recommend any sellers as I am not certain they would be willing to ship to Holland. You would need to do some research to find out which ones would ship to your country.
BTW, I have visited Holland several times and I very much enjoyed your country. Good luck, and happy stacking!
The premise is investor purchases will more than exceed indusrial drop-off in purchases.
In a future article, tell us what you hear/read about large investor buying, like best estimates on increases in demand from India.
I can understand skepticism about silver’s price going up.
Reduced industrial use plus reduced mine output as you mention in the video.
“Reduced industrial use plus reduced mine output”…) are common smokescreens employed when it best suits the narratives to “explain” why Silver prices have tanked. If Silver prices go up, it is because of increased investor demand. When Silver prices go down, it is because of “Reduced industrial use plus reduced mine output”.
THAT is what I tire of hearing!
The PMs (Gold and Silver), are being grossly suppressed (a polite way of saying – manipulated). It is the best not-kept secret in the PM marketplace. Perhaps I could believe in coincidences if it only happened a couple of times, but seriously! Suppression of PM prices happens regularly and many can call the approximate times of the day that a PM dump is going to happen (and they are correct) that suppresses PM pricing.
I am weary of this constantly repeating cycle and I can only hope for enough factors to change the “pump and dump” that will create a free market for PMs. If the commercials are not engaged in price manipulation (in whatever form), why do some commercials engage in “pump and dump” practices? It is a vicious cycle that has been repeated FAR too many times. Real change is needed. Through PM market rigging, they generate more than enough revenue to pay ANY/ALL fines levied against them! This crap HAS TO STOP!
There are NO innocents in the commercial PM markets. Not manipulated? Please…pull my other leg; it plays Jingle Bells!
(edited for spelling)