With silver nearly touching $55, an important technical support level… what’s next? Will gold and silver experience a BREAKOUT HIGHER, or will they fall below technical support levels? Also, I explain why there is a lot of BS out there and why it’s not good for you.
While many Silver Stackers DO NOT believe in technicals, that’s okay, but Small-Large Traders, Momentum Traders, and Institutions do use technicals, and price moves are based on this.
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The price of silver always bounces off the cost of production. If there’s a sudden bear market the metals will be dragged down. If part of the cause of a bear market is a spike in the price of oil, that also raises the cost of production. How much is the cost of production raised for each $ 10 hike in the price of crude? Thanks.
Historically yes; the floor in silver and perhaps some other important metals (and commodities) has been the cost of production.
But the increasing length of of time of worldwide deficit (production peaked in 2016) requires miner profits to prevent mine shutdowns.
Whether that floor will be the case again (ever again) can’t be known. It’s also blazed a trail above $100 now, and more are aware of its upside potential.
The buying at points of that climb resulted in shortages with higher premiums along with the higher prices.
Then the selling above around $80 started applying the brakes.
I don’t think gold will drop to its cost of production.
At current prices with low premiums, dollar cost average purchasing for those with liquidity isn’t a bad decision.
Hello Steve and Company —
I just noticed this video posted to the general public (GP) on YouTube. I am good to see periodic videos posted to the GP as this generates an increase in membership / subscribers to the SRSrocco Report. More members create more perspectives in the comments section. A good portion of my membership fee is paid in anticipation of the feedback from members, and our host.
I concur — there is a lot of nonsense being pushed out to the airwaves / internet. One of the challenges is in cultivating a reliable BS Detection Kit. Folks like Keith Neumeyer and Alasdair Macleod can talk a good game and come across as reliable sources of information based on their background — Keith being the CEO of First Majestic and Alasdair with his confident diction and performative presentation.
A strong tell for detecting BS — use of ALL UPPER CASE and Exclamation Points!!! Add to that the keywords, including EXPLOSION, 500%, DO NOT IGNORE, MARKET CORRECTION, etc… these poke the emotional side of the brain as opposed to the cold, rational logical side.
In an odd twist, I believe that “Technical Charts” — often used by the likes of several high-subscriber podcasters, are similar to the use of exclamation points … the Cup and Handle, Double-Shoulder, Fibonacci Retracement, Hailstone Collapse, Coincident Concurrence and sundry other charty-patterns, these all contribute to building a picture that can sell a narrative. They are then self-reinforcing: the charts manifest the narrative and the narrative is illustrated by highlighting and dragging particular regions of a chart. Francis Hunt (The Market Sniper) uses charts in most of his presentations; however, I find that his content is far more effective when he skips the charts and just speaks from the fundamentals. That could just be a measure of how my brain was wired up at the factory.
I’ve been conducting research (getting assistance from Copilot) regarding the prospects of a global deflationary depression wherein the degradation occurs over the next 10 years followed by 20+ years of a world economy dragging its chains along the bottom of a literal debris field, the massive decay and collapse resulting from the inability to service and maintain the build-out over the past 100 years. This dystopian future has appeal as it will solve a great many problems. It will be like a widespread natural forest fire, clearing away much of the old, decaying, decadent and delusional rot. Of course, this sort of financial future often leads to wars and other state-imposed measures that make matters worse. The times ahead appear bleak at best.
Hello Steve and Company —
I just noticed this video posted to the general public (GP) on YouTube. I am good to see periodic videos posted to the GP as this generates an increase in membership / subscribers to the SRSrocco Report. More members create more perspectives in the comments section. A good portion of my membership fee is paid in anticipation of the feedback from members, and our host.
I concur — there is a lot of nonsense being pushed out to the airwaves / internet. One of the challenges is in cultivating a reliable BS Detection Kit. Folks like Keith Neumeyer and Alasdair Macleod can talk a good game and come across as reliable sources of information based on their background — Keith being the CEO of First Majestic and Alasdair with his confident diction and performative presentation.
A strong tell for detecting BS — use of ALL UPPER CASE and Exclamation Points!!! Add to that the keywords, including EXPLOSION, 500%, DO NOT IGNORE, MARKET CORRECTION, etc… these poke the emotional side of the brain as opposed to the cold, rational logical side.
In an odd twist, I believe that “Technical Charts” — often used by the likes of several high-subscriber podcasters, are similar to the use of exclamation points … the Cup and Handle, Double-Shoulder, Fibonacci Retracement, Hailstone Collapse, Coincident Concurrence and sundry other charty-patterns, these all contribute to building a picture that can sell a narrative. They are then self-reinforcing: the charts manifest the narrative and the narrative is illustrated by highlighting and dragging particular regions of a chart. Francis Hunt (The Market Sniper) uses charts in most of his presentations; however, I find that his content is far more effective when he skips the charts and just speaks from the fundamentals. That could just be a measure of how my brain was wired up at the factory.
I’ve been conducting research (getting assistance from Copilot) regarding the prospects of a global deflationary depression wherein the degradation occurs over the next 10 years followed by 20+ years of a world economy dragging its chains along the bottom of a literal debris field, the massive decay and collapse resulting from the inability to service and maintain the build-out over the past 100 years. This dystopian future has appeal as it will solve a great many problems. It will be like a widespread natural forest fire, clearing away much of the old, decaying, decadent and delusional rot. Of course, this sort of financial future often leads to wars and other state-imposed measures that make matters worse. The times ahead appear bleak at best.
I just love Copilot! It helps me no-end in researching the junior miners. It allows me to digest the technical and the narrative behind their intent.
My discovery!!
Opaqueness is the enemy because it hides mechanism
Opaqueness is what allows:
• exponential growth myths to survive
• technical chart patterns to look predictive
• corporate reports to look authoritative
• administrators to appear competent
• financial narratives to seem credible
Opaqueness is the fog that prevents people from seeing the physical limits, the behavioural manipulation, and the structural contradictions underneath.
When information is opaque, pattern based storytelling becomes the substitute for truth.
That’s why charts, narratives, and selective framing work so well — they fill the void created by opaqueness
Go figure 👀😏😕
Look at both charts, gold and silver.
You will see three higher highs – 1980, 2011, 2025.
1980 – 2011 = 31 years
2011 – 2025 = 14 years
The distance between these high moments is getting shorter.
Why do these high moments occur?
Each major spike — 1980, 2011, 2025 — happened because the public suddenly realised that the people running the system (administrators, central banks, governments) had lost control of the economic narrative.
The triggers were different each time:
• 1980 → runaway inflation, oil shocks, monetary panic
• 2011 → post GFC distrust, QE, sovereign debt fear
• 2025 → inflation persistence, geopolitical fragmentation, debt saturation
But the underlying mechanism was identical:
Gold and silver spike when trust collapses.
They are trust assets, not growth assets.
Why the highs are getting closer together
This is the part tied directly to exponential growth.
The modern financial system is built on the assumption that:
Growth can continue exponentially forever.
But the physical world — mining, energy, resources — does not behave exponentially. It behaves according to depletion curves.
As physical limits tighten:
• ore grades decline
• pits deepen
• extraction costs rise
• discoveries slow
• energy becomes constrained
• geopolitical risk increases
…the gap between financial expectations and physical reality widens.
This widening gap creates more frequent confidence shocks.
That’s why:
• 1980 → 2011 took 31 years
• 2011 → 2025 took 14 years
The cycle is compressing because the exponential model is failing faster.
The system is becoming more fragile, so trust collapses more often.
The core idea
Yes — it has everything to do with exponential growth.
The financial world still behaves as if exponential growth is possible. The physical world is showing that exponential growth is over.
When society finally recognises this mismatch — when it becomes undeniable — confidence collapses, and gold and silver rise sharply.
That’s the mechanism. That’s the pattern. That’s the reason the highs are accelerating. So, the next highs in gold and silver could occur in 3 to five years?
I have also observed the tightening of the price appreciation curves in terms of gold and silver. From your data and running the ratios:
14 / 31 = X / 14, solve for X = 6.32.
Sounds about right … by 2031 we have another peak in PMs.
Gold peaks, roughly rounding a bit:
1980 = $ 850
2011 = $ 1,700 2x over prior peak
2025 = $ 5,500 3x over prior peak
2031 = $22,000 4x over prior peak
I took the liberty of implementing a depreciating Fibonacci cup and handle with a slightly distended hailstone shoulder formation using a modified version of a second order PDE in order to avoid introducing imaginary components while collapsing the wave function well in advance of normalizing the resultant periodicity of the outputs. How’s that for a side-order of opacity … you don’t need a name like Bix, Alasdair or Schectman to be shilling out the jargon. Cheers.
PDG2;sounds like the retro encabulator! 🤣
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXJKdh1KZ0w
The drawn reciprocation dingle arm is at the top of my recognized list of ancillary inventions that propelled patent disclosures and their myriad mix of micro-advances into the twentieth century. The differential girdle spring
rates a close second.
PS: It is never too early in the day to enjoy an extra sweet Old Fashioned.
From “It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World” (1963) — the flying scene, which I credit for my love of Old Fashioneds. I can tell you from experience: anyone can fly a plane. Landing one is a different story.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i415QwSj0Og&t=40s
PPS: Sorry to our host for hijacking this thread; but, what’s the point if you can’t take a little old fashioned time to enjoy life? Cheers!
Steve I’m not sure why you don’t share the fact with your readers then China did ban (non permitted exports) as that is a fact. It may not change what they are exporting but it’s the news snippet that these people are using to twist the facts.
Thank you Steve.
China is a leading global silver refiner. They export huge amounts of refined silver around the world. It is ludicrous to say there are no silver exports globally.
And China needs income; their economy is not in good shape.
Perhaps specifically dollars, euros, and pounds.