After the silver and gold prices corrected this past week, we may see a bounce in the precious metals. However, it will depend on what happens in the broader markets and the U.S. Dollar Index. Although, if we look at the longer-term charts, silver is setting up for a BIG MOVE in 2021.
In my newest YouTube video update, Silver Update Setting Up For Big Move In 2021, I explain what is taking place in the silver market and price. What is quite interesting is the major difference taking place between silver and copper.
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What I never seem to comprehend is that if all the commericals are massively net short (as they are with copper now) why doesn’t the price FALL?
These are the people who know what they are doing, aren’t they?
Andy Webb,
The commercials can continue to add shorts as the price increases as they have BIG POCKETS. Also, the commercials, which are the big bullion banks, also must provide a SHORT for a LONG. While the commercials may be guilty of manipulating markets with their shorting techniques, there is always a SHORT for a LONG.
So, as the price of copper increased, the commercials added more shorts as speculated added more longs. But, when push comes to shove, the commercials always win out in the end. Why, because they are just like the CASINO… THE HOUSE ALWAYS WINS IN THE END.
When the copper price falls, you will see the commercials liquidate the short positions until they become NET LONG once again.
steve
“Also, the commercials, which are the big bullion banks, also must provide a SHORT for a LONG. While the commercials may be guilty of manipulating markets with their shorting techniques, there is always a SHORT for a LONG.”
They ARE guilty of manipulation with their shorting techniques; they are net short in silver far more than any other commodity, and rules/limits not enforced by the CFTC.
Yes a SHORT has to be provided for a LONG, and vice-versa…but to my understanding it could come from another entity, e.g. hedge fund or speculative fund being net long with the commercials net short.
The commercials can be net short by a wide margin, as long as some other businesses takes the offsetting long positions.
“But, when push comes to shove, the commercials always win out in the end. Why, because they are just like the CASINO… THE HOUSE ALWAYS WINS IN THE END.”
Exactly. They win out with their net shorts in gold, but particularly in the tiny cap silver or copper market.
The trolls are strong on the Youtube video comments “waaah you’ve been saying this for years” etc.Which means you are on the right track Steve.
Can you explain to me the mechanism with the net shorts please ?
What I mean is the commercial net short position in silver halved and the silver price went up. This is what one would expect and makes sense. People becoming gradually more long and the price going up. But it doesn’t always work like that. eg the copper price. They are getting progressively shorter and shorter yet the price is rising.
Why does it rise it so many people are going short ?
I totally get your point when you say that the massive short copper position portends a future price fall. After all these commercials know what they are doing.
Is there some sort of delay?
Grateful for your thoughts.
Albert Neville,
Normally, when the silver price went higher, so did the number of Commerical Net short positions. The Net short position is the total of SHORTS minus the total LONGS. However, in certain times in the past, as during 2009-2011, the silver price went higher as the commercial net short position consolidated lower.
We have seen a similar trend this past 3-4 months. You must understand that for every LONG there has to be a SHORT. So, if more traders want to speculate in silver, then the commercials have to play the other side and be SHORT. Because the Big Bullion banks have BIG POCKETS, they can outlast the speculators who are trading on EXTREME MARGIN. Thus, as the price of silver falls, the commercials liquidate their short positions until the price finally bottoms and the cycle repeats.
I need to do an article on this, but while Gold and Silver trade in the futures, they should be handled differently than most commodities as Gold and Silver are also money. So, when more traders want to speculate in silver, they just add more contracts which waters down the TRUE VALUE of the physical metal.
How so?? If traders had to acquire REAL METAL, or at least, a percentage of the metal they trade, then it would take off the market a great deal more metal than what could be physically traded. We will come to a time when the Futures Markets will no longer work for Gold and Silver and at that time, the values will really TAKE OFF.
steve
“We will come to a time when the Futures Markets will no longer work for Gold and Silver and at that time, the values will really TAKE OFF.”
Precisely.
Checking the COT status is a good thing before making a large purchase. Since I can’t make a large purchase [and many others can’t either], in the long run it doesn’t matter if one bought a roll of coins and a week later could have gotten it for $50 to $75 less. If the price drops a lot in a 1-2 week period those coins you wanted may be sold out.
Inside the JPMorgan Trading Desk the U.S. Called a Crime Ring
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inside-jpmorgan-trading-desk-u-080014057.html