We live in crazy times. Volatility is the name of the game nowadays. Prices of stocks and commodities get pushed around on a daily basis. But no asset trades as insanely as the cryptos. We have covered Bitcoin’s price action in previous articles. Let’s now take a look at what’s up with Ethereum…
Ethereum is often compared to Bitcoin, like silver is compared to gold in the world of precious metals. It’s even more volatile than Bitcoin… and that’s saying something. LOL
Ethereum has been flying high in the last few trading sessions. But we must also ask ourselves: Is Ethereum Doing An EXACT REPEAT of Early 2018? Looking at the charts, it FEELS LIKE IT!
Click image to enlarge
Ethereum tends to have a delay in topping after Bitcoin does. It takes 4 weeks (28 days) more for Ethereum to reach its peak.
Given that Bitcoin seems to have reached its top in this cycle on January 8, Ethereum’s top was due today.
However, Ethereum tends to top and bottom in price on Sundays, so it is possible that Ethereum will spike even higher from here.
According to our calculations, if Ethereum does repeat its pattern from the last cycle in 2018, then it is going to peak at $2,200 on Sunday, February 7, 2021.
But after that, beware folks, because the illusion of digital wealth might evaporate rather quickly!
Last time Ethereum peaked this aggressively, it then gave back 75% of its peak in a mere 75 days…
So, let’s never forget what Mr. Buterin, Ethereum’s creator, famously said soon after Ethereum’s collapse started back in 2018:
Reminder: cryptocurrencies are still a new and hyper-volatile asset class, and could drop to near-zero at any time. Don't put in more money than you can afford to lose. If you're trying to figure out where to store your life savings, traditional assets are still your safest bet.
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) February 17, 2018
Reminder: cryptocurrencies are still a new and hyper-volatile asset class, and could drop to near-zero at any time. Don’t put in more money than you can afford to lose. If you’re trying to figure out where to store your life savings, traditional assets are still your safest bet.
Hear, hear!
Thank you Tactical trader for sharing details for ETH.
Does this give some direction about crypto market reaching bottom arond next 75 days?
That’s a possibility. Market action tends to rhyme rather than exactly repeat itself. An exact repeat would be highly suspicious as that would indicate that there is cartel trading going on instead of free market trading.
ETH is also planned to get into futures market on Feb/08/2021,
similar to BTC (when entered into futures BTC got crushed).
do you think the cycle repeats again to ETH also,
as ETH is entering into futures market on Feb/08/2021?
It wouldn’t be surprising. It’s very difficult to seriously short these markets. Once there is a new opportunity for shorting, a lot of deep pockets will try their best to profit from it.
The smart money moved into ETH between $100 – $300 last year. Good luck getting those prices in the near future. I was called a troll on this website for talking up BTC & ETH back in the dark days of the bear market, before this recent move up. ETH is highly volatile, but it is also the backbone to the decentralized finance economy. Gas fees will remain high until ETH 2.0 is fully live. We haven’t reached a top yet for ETH, but if you don’t have strong hands I don’t recommend crypto trading. Vitalik was right in his tweet, don’t bet the family farm, but also don’t let your exposure to bitcoin = zero.
It seems that Ethereum has peaked exactly on time… February 5. Same timing cycle as last time around. Therefore, it’s quite logical to expect that the price will fall the same way it did in its last cycle. The interim bottom for ETH should be $440 by late April.
The last cycle? We are still a year out from the last cycle. The bitcoin halving happens approximately every 4 years. We have about 11 months left in this bull cycle if history is an indicator. We could arguably be in a lengthening cycle actually, but I highly doubt we’re in a “shorter cycle” market like you’re implying. If ETH is $440 by late April I’ll be buying hand over fist… but it won’t be.
“Gas fees will remain high until ETH 2.0 is fully live”.
I don’t know what you mean by this statement.
Hi Tactical Trader,
BTC and ETH made record highs, will there be any changes to move down timeline or targets?
can you share your thoughts ..
Regards,
Satya.
At this point, all we can do is let the news about Elon Musk’s tweet settle a bit. We will see what happens in a day or two… LOL
nice one..thank you helping me in learning the cycle..
– keep watching key points
– have patience
– enjoy your chances of buying at lows
Also consider this… Now that the coolest and richest man is invested… now that we’re at the top of the world… what other good news are there that will keep up and improve the current level of euphoria?
Because that’s what the price needs at this level. A constant stream of exciting good news. A lack of those news is now enough to turn the price down.
Briefly what did Musk say that excited his acolytes?
He’s now accepting BTC as payment for his Tesla cars. Also, he revealed in an SEC filing that he’s invested about $1.5bn in BTC.
In the end, it will only extend the cycle by a bit. News like this are feeding the cycle, these are not countercyclical news. But tell that to the Reddit boys, crypto aficionados, and the assorted hodlers of this crazy crazy world.
Divine Intervention? lol
People who invest 1.5 billion probably won’t be HODLing that investment all the way to the next low.
With the plethora of QUALITY electric cars being released this year and in the next 1-2, he better be willing to accept recycled aluminum as payment. Trade in your iron-curtain-era cold war Soviet cars. Something.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/tesla-buys-1point5-billion-in-bitcoin.html
I keep thinking someone well-known wealthy person or company is going to run afoul of IRS reporting requirements on Bitcoin transactions, and it will be caught/exposed in a bad PR prosecution.
I’m surprised it hasn’t happened so far.