SILVER PRICE 2019: Is This The Year For A New Bull Market?

After waiting for seven years since the silver price traded above $30, precious metals investors are wondering if 2019 will be the year that shiny metal finally enters into a new bull market.  However, for silver to enter into a new bull market, certain signs and indicators need to take place.  I discuss this in detail in my latest video.

Interestingly we have seen several precious metals analysts suggest that something quite interesting is taking place in the silver market.  For example, Alasdair Macleod wrote an article; A Whale Is Accumulating Silver Futures, implying that the Chinese government may indeed be acquiring a significant long position in the silver market. Macleod believes China may be going long silver, via the futures market, to protect its supply by hedging as the price heads higher in the future.

So, how can we tell if silver is entering into a new bull market?  Well, the biggest indicator tends to be the price.  While physical supply and demand factors impact price, we have seen years in which demand fell during rising prices, but also surged during extreme selloffs.  Thus, it’s important to look for key price levels that will signal that silver has begun a new bull market.

The silver price has been impacted by fundamental and technical analysis.  As I have mentioned in recent articles, I dismissed technical analysis for years as I thought it was nothing more than reading tea leaves or goat entrails, as a commenter stated.  However, after I spent the past year watching and studying the day trading markets, I realized that stocks were bouncing off moving averages, technical levels, and formations… DAY IN AND DAY OUT.

When I went back and looked at the long-term gold and silver charts, I saw that the large price BREAKOUTS occurred at certain key levels. Why was this the case?  Well, it seems that when the gold or silver price broke above a key level, it came on the RADAR of traders, hedge funds, investors, and institutions.  Thus, breaking above or below these key levels brings on a great deal more interest and trading volume.

Basically, when the gold or silver price finally pushes above a long-term resistance level, EVERYONE WANTS IN.  And, it’s not just in gold and silver.  The market pays attention to these key levels IN ALL STOCKS & COMMODITIES.

So it’s essential to understand that while the fundamentals are the underlying drivers of price, the key technical levels provide the BIG PUNCH or huge increase in BUYING or SELLING depending on the technical setup. I ignored this information for years, but will no longer.

Does that mean that I am no longer interested in fundamentals?  Hell no.  Actually, I am interested in the fundamentals more than ever.  However, technical analysis will provide us some with clues to how silver will BREAKOUT to new highs in the future.  Furthermore, when the U.S. and world experience peak oil, the impact on most assets will be quite negative.  BUT… this will be shown in the charts as Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate lose value while gold and silver move up in the opposite direction.

In my newest video, SILVER PRICE BREAKOUT:  Key Levels To Look For In 2019, I explain in detail how the past silver price spikes occurred at crucial technical levels and will do so again in the future:

The key technical levels are important to keep an eye on because the PAPER BUYER or SELLER drive the majority of the silver market price.  This shouldn’t be a surprise because only 1% or less, of investors, purchase physical gold and silver.

One of the charts I discuss in the video is the long-term silver chart with two crucial moving averages and the important lower trend line:

In the 20-year monthly chart of silver, the price has been bouncing off the lower rising trend line (blue dashed line) since 2004.  Not only is this an important technical level for silver, but it also shows a BOTTOM for the price as $15 is now the average cost to produce an ounce of silver by the primary mining industry. If we go back to 2004, the primary silver mining industry was producing silver at about $5 an ounce.  Thus, the cost to produce silver has tripled in 15 years… AND THE TECHNICAL LEVELS SHOW IT.

Lastly, I explain why the silver price must push above these two moving averages to be in a new bullish trend.  However, for silver to be in a NEW BULL MARKET, I believe there is a certain key price level that it needs to rise above.

Please check out my newest video to get all the details.

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OutLookingIn
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OutLookingIn

Past Present & Future

What has occurred in the past, is not prologue as to what will occur in the future.
Technical market analysis (past & present) has a long history of being wrong, or at the best being 50% prescience. Which portends that you are either half right or half wrong.
A much firmer prediction basis, is to closely observe present global micro/macro machinations. Not only financial, but political and militarily. Mass emotive development is what moves markets. Fear is the greatest motivator. Greed a close second.
I guess what I’m saying is, don’t put all your eggs in one basket!

Martin
Guest
Martin

It’s not exactly like that. Lets say you have a model that is 50% of the time right and 50% of the time wrong. Seeminly this model is useless as you would lose money on transaction costs. But it could be that this model is right 60% of the time when there are big moves in the market with a payout of 10:1. So it could still generate a lot of money.

Wanderlei Silver
Guest
Wanderlei Silver

I believe there is no silver market and the price can be moved in whatever direction the big banks and government wants, until it cannot. I don’t think we are close to that point. The price might rise to $20 or even $25 but it will get smacked down again. I like Steve’s work and I am a big buyer of physical silver, I just don’t think technical analysis is useful in the silver “market”, for now. I think the world could go 2 ways. We could go full digital money where we are all slaves or there might be… Read more »

DisappearingCulture
Guest
DisappearingCulture

It’s amazing the range of opinions out there from the experts. For example here is one attributing the price rise in silver mainly to buying http://www.zealllc.com/2019/slvopgd2.htm
“The bottom line is silver really started outperforming gold again in the last couple weeks. Silver surged dramatically on heavy investment buying, as evidenced by big differential SLV-share demand.”

petedivine
Guest
petedivine

Great video. A long-term buy and hold silver strategy looks like a no brainer when you consider that silver still below its 200DMA. I’m still adding to my position on a dollar cost basis. I also like Royalties and have a core position in Osisko (OR) and am accumulating a primary silver play in silvercrest (SILV)to take advantage of silver’s future rise. I like royalties because a lot of the mining risk is spread between many gold, silver, and diamond miners. I have a core position in Osisko (OR) because they have a large presence in North American miners which… Read more »

joni
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joni

different people different view. I draw line on a chart too. but i see it sup/res on 18.60 and 26.60. and i use rsi and draw line over there to on 38.64 58.40 71.44 that is 2008 bottom 2010 breakout and 2011 retested. But in this time i think geopolitic is the main factor for silver or gold or market anyway. in 2016 when silver went thru 18,60 up to 21 Was right before west try to knock Ergodan and imigratns that they live in turkey 10MM will be release in eu. that will be a smoke for war in… Read more »

SkeptiSchism
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SkeptiSchism

Thanks Steve for another great video.

I think that technical charting matters because so much trading is done by HFT algos now. The technical levels are easy to program into an algorithm and tell the machines when to buy or sell.

So, yah the technical levels are very important in regards to price in the current paradigm. If we have a major restructuring like the dollar is dumped as the world’s reserve currency I don’t think machines will be trading as much simply because there’s no background/history to program them with.

Eric
Guest
Eric

Dang Steve. That was a very good technical analysis. Crystal Clear. Thanks!

GrahamB
Guest
GrahamB

I have said in earlier comments; the Dow Jones could produce another leg up to around 38,000. I think that is now is a real possibility.

If this is the case; I would suggest Gold and Silver will retreat retaining their range bound patterns.

Having said that; it really doesn’t matter what price you pay for silver; $14, $15, $20 or whatever at this stage because these prices will be irrelevant to what the silver price will be in the near future.

🤑🤑🤑😊

dave1928
Guest
dave1928

I follow a few analysts and over the last month all have been pulling up charts for gold and silver. Maybe an indicator. Glad to hear word Steve.

Wanderlei Silver
Guest
Wanderlei Silver

On a side note I think we will see a decoupling from the spot and premium price for physical. I read not that long ago physical supplies at retail stores were low and the premiums were sometimes 2 or 3 times over spot for some forms of silver. I think we will see this long before the spot price rises.